NEWS AND NOTES:
-Duke absolutely blew Illinois off the court. Duke had been winning some ACC games like they were home buy games, but was a game against a solid tournament team on a neutral floor, and they just blew the Illini into the sun 110-67.
-BYU, who had been hovering right around our bubble, got a massive road win at Arizona yesterday 96-95. It was close all throughout, but BYU made some key plays in the final minute to secure what is easily their biggest win of the season and could be the game that makes the difference of them getting into the NCAA Tournament. Arizona is still in great shape, but they’ve now lost three of their last four, and two of those were at home.
-Alabama snapped their two game losing streak with a big 96-83 win against Kentucky. Kentucky kept it close for a lot of the game, but Bama maintained the lead and control.
-Houston managed to get another big win as they held off Iowa State 68-59. The Cougars never blew it open, but they did sustain a lead for most of the game.
-Tennessee has had a great season, and their really strong profile got even stronger yesterday as they beat Texas A&M on the road 77-69. Beating protected seeds in true road games is generally a good thing for one’s resume!!
-Oregon, who just a little while ago appeared to be in a massive tailspin, somehow managed to go into Wisconsin and get a massive 77-73 yesterday. It is probably their biggest win of the year and it comes at a time when their resume really needed a big boost.
-Arkansas just isn’t going away. They got another nice win yesterday against Missouri that they really needed as they held off the Tigers 92-85, and had to come from behind to do it. Mizzou has an outstanding overall profile, and they could still end up as a protected seed, but the one thing they could use a little more of is true road wins, so yesterday was a bit of a missed opportunity.
-Clemson got one of their bigger road wins of the year as they went on the road to SMU and knocked them off 79-69. SMU was on the bubble, and this was a huge missed opportunity for them, whereas Clemson is solidly in the field and now has seven true road wins. This should move them up the seedlist.
-Oklahoma is still clinging to the bubble for dear life. Every time it looks like they are about to fall off of it they come up with a big win. They knocked off Mississippi State 93-87 yesterday, and while it was at home, for them every win is a big win.
-Vanderbilt continues to play like a top ten team on their home court. They got another big scalp as they knocked off Ole Miss 77-72. Vandy should safely be in the field, but doing just a little more away from home would make their resume look a lot stronger.
-TCU, who had been red hot and appeared to have a pretty wide path toward making the NCAA Tournament, fell on the road at Cincinnati yesterday 75-63 in a game that they really could not afford to lose.
-Wake Forest, who was also squarely on the bubble and needing to hold serve, did not do so yesterday. They fell on the road to NC State 83-75 in a game that will likely have them on the wrong side of the cut line.
-Texas, who was squarely on the bubble and needing to hold serve, did not do so yesterday. They went to South Carolina and didn’t just lose, but lost handily 84-69. That is definitely going to leave a mark!.
-Baylor is still likely inside the bubble, but they needed road wins. They had a winnable road game yesterday at Colorado, but didn’t win it. they fell to the Buffs 76-74.
-VCU and George Mason, a pair of bubble teams out of the Atlantic Ten, squared off yesterday, and VCU won it going away 70-54. They have now drawn even with George Mason in the standings. I think George Mason’s case was slightly stronger than VCU’s coming into yesterday, but they needed this one and didn’t get it.
-Saint Mary’s has now clinched 1st place in the West Coast Conference after they went on the road and won at Gonzaga. SMC was very safely in the top half of the bracket, but this should give them a much bigger boost considering that it was a true road win against a solid team. They basically sprinted out to a lead early and while the Zags made a few runs at them, SMC always had an answer.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-UCONN AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Saint John’s is one of the hottest teams in the country and appears to be on pace to earn a protected seeds. UConn has been a little less consistent, but they do have some big wins and has shown they are capable of winning big games away from home. If they could somehow win this one it would give their resume a big boost.
-PURDUE AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Purdue has now dropped three straight. Granted, all were to probable protected seeds and two of them were on the road, so it’s not that big of a tailspin, but they’ll definitely be looking to snap that today. Indiana has lost six out of their last seven, but they have been competitive in a lot of those games, and they should be way up for this one since it’s a rivalry game. When they went to Purdue just a few weeks ago they only lost by 5.
-FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT MEMPHIS (American). FAU just had a five game winning streak snapped, but they have been playing better recently and they should be up for this one. Having said that, Memphis is clearly the superior team and they are at home, so they should be able to hold serve.
-XAVIER AT SETON HALL (Big East). We still have Xavier just outside our bubble and they basically need to win out in order to have a chance to get inside of it. They certainly don’t want to drop a game to a Seton Hall team that’s about a thousand miles from the bubble.
-CLEVELAND STATE AT OAKLAND (Horizon League). Cleveland State still has a half game lead in the HL Standings with just three games to go. They can get a step closer with a win today.
-OHIO STATE AT UCLA (Big Ten). Ohio State suffered a rather damaging blowout loss earlier in the week, which is a bad look for a team that’s right on the bubble. But, the Buckeyes have been inconsistent all year long. A win today would all but offset that, and the way their season has gone it’s not out of the question. UCLA is solidly in the field and depending on how they finish their season I still think the door is open for them to end up as a protected seed. They’ll be looking to hold serve at home today after a somewhat surprising home loss to Minnesota earlier in the week.
-DRAKE AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). This is perhaps Drake’s toughest remaining test of the season. It’s on the road against a team that has been playing really well. It’s also a rivalry game. If Drake can win this, they have a pretty clear path toward winning out during the regular season, and if they do that I think they’ll be inside the bubble.
-GEORGETOWN AT CREIGHTON (Big East). Creighton has lost two straight, but both were close games to solid opponents. They should be able to hold serve at home and win this one. They are good enough to win out until the Big East Tournament.
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Friday, February 21st
We thought that this would be the Puppet’s week to prepare the staff bracket this week, but
due to incarcerationinstead our colleague John Stalica will do the bracket this week. This is not an attempt to guess the Selection Committee (as Jon Teitel does every Sunday), but rather what John feels the bracket should look like after today. Here goes:First Four Out: Ohio State, Arkansas, TCU, Boise State
Worth a look: Xavier, SMU, North Carolina, VCU. UC-Irvine, San Francisco, Indiana, George Mason
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– One of the better memes during the past month is that the SEC is only .500 since conference play began in January. The ACC actually has a chance to finish over .500 in the same stretch since Duke will play a late non-conference game at Madison Square Garden against Illinois. It’s actually a pivotal matchup for both teams; Duke needs a win like this to stay on the 1-line and Illinois really needs a stabilizing win to stay in the top half of the bracket.
– The B1G has a vise grip on the 3-line since they don’t really have a clear cut favorite to win the league at this point. Michigan/Michigan State may offer a clue as to who will be at the top of the 3-line at the end of tonight.
– Kansas should be very thankful that they got neutral-court wins against Duke and Michigan State in the first month of the season; it’s the only thing (besides their name) keeping them in the top half of the bracket right now. In true road games, the Jayhawks are a very meh 3-7. By comparison, Xavier is also 3-7 in true road games (including a win at Marquette) and not in this bracket.
– Ohio State is officially in deep doo-doo after getting blown out at home by Northwestern. Now they have to go to the West Coast and get a sweep of both UCLA and USC to get back into the field. I don’t think a split would be enough even if the win comes at UCLA. Maybe they’ll enjoy the initial Crown Invitational in Vegas with a couple other friends from the B1G, Big East and Big 12.
– Boise State and TCU are both creeping closer to the cut line. TCU put themselves in position with a win at home against Texas Tech; getting a win at Cincinnati this weekend would also be a step in the right direction. Boise State now has 3 wins against the field (Clemson, Saint Mary’s and New Mexico) and will have one more opportunity with Utah State visiting the Broncos. Still, they’ll need a win or two in the Mountain West Tournament to demonstrate that they can win away from home.
– For a few weeks, we’ve had Cleveland State as the Horizon League champion, but now I feel that Morris Robert, ERRRR, Robert Morris may now be the team to beat in the league. RMU only trails CSU by a half-game and is on a roll since their wardrobe malfunction earlier this season.
– I initially forgot to mention this Friday, but I would initially have had BYU as my last #10 seed and Oklahoma as my top #11 seed. Both teams were swapped to ensure BYU didn’t get placed in a Sunday region.
STAFF COMMENTS:
From Chad:
– Kentucky is such a hard team to place right now. Their five wins (3 away from home) against top 10 NET teams could make the a 3 seed, but their 7-6 conference record and 8 overall losses also gives them a case for the 5 or 6 line where John has them. I would personally have them higher, but I see the argument for a 5 seed as well.
– Vanderbilt and West Virginia on the 9 line both seem a bit high to me. I would have them a lot closer to the First Four. Vandy does not have a win away from home against the field and played an AWFUL non-conference schedule. West Virginia has the high quality wins, but 10 overall losses is a lot right now, and they are only 7-8 in Big 12 play.
– Baylor I feel is under-seeded on the 10 line. The Bears are healthy again and, while they have a lot of losses, all but one of them are Tier 1A.
– I would not have Oklahoma in right now. The Sooners have lost 5 in a row and are below .500 against the top three tiers. They now also have a BAD loss, the home home game they completely blew against LSU last weekend. They may need to be booking their tickets to the Crown, but do have time to right the ship as they were my top team out. (Note from Stalica – The Crown is limited to the B1G, Big East and Big 12 this year. The SEC and ACC will still be part of the 2025 NIT – the top two teams from each conference not invited to the NCAA Tournament will be invited to the NIT, but they are not compelled to participate.)
– Georgia also does not belong in. They are 8-10 against the top three tiers and have only one true road win — at Georgia Tech.
– Pitt does not even belong in the NIT or the CBI. I can name a dozen teams not in John’s field that I like better than them. Not only do I not have the Panthers in my field, I don’t even have them on my Board for teams Under Consideration. Did you typo and mean someone else here John? That Panthers are not good.
– Drake should be a few seed lines higher. The metrics are solid for this team, and I really think the Committee will give them a 9 or 10 seed if they keep winning. If they can at least win out the regular season (including a huge game at Northern Iowa on Sunday), I don’t even think they will need the automatic bid.
– I would have two A-10 teams in right now. I would also still have two Big West teams in DESPITE UC-Irvine’s loss last night. The Anteaters would be my very last team in, but as long as they do not lose again until the Big West Tournament final (which they are very capable of doing), I still believe in the two bid Big West, especially given that the rest of the Bubble teams are almost guaranteed to keep losing games.
– All in all, John did a great job in my opinion, and most of my arguments are with him are around the bubble.
From David Griggs:
-Vanderbilt on the 9 line is higher than I would have them. I just don’t think they’ve done enough away from home to be seeded as good as that. Having said that, if I were guessing the actual committee and not doing my own bracket, my guess is that’s where the real committee would have them.
-Kansas on the 6 line may seem low, but I’d actually have them lower. I’d probably place them behind Louisville and Clemson right now. Perhaps even Memphis. Kansas has not won a true road game against anyone that’s in this field.
-BYU is getting a lot of love. Not just from Stalica, but from most people who follow and do bracketology. I think they have some nice wins at home and…well…I think they have some nice wins at home. A weak OOC schedule and a shoddy road record would have me leaving the Cougars out.