News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Mar 1st

Posted on March 1, 2022 by David Griggs

NEWS, NOTES, AND LINKS:

HAPPY MARCH MADNESS EVERYBODY!!!  We’ve got EVERYTHING you need right here!!  Hoops HD has been covering March since November!!!!

-For the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast, as well as Day 1 of the HOOPS HD VIDEO NOTEBOOK – CLICK HERE

-If you want to see who is a lock, who is under consideration, and who can only get in with an automatic bid, then check out the HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD.  Managing this page one of the many things we do here at Hoops HD to assist the committee members – CLICK HERE

Our man JON TEITEL has gone crazy with content!!
-For his latest BRACKET PROJECTIONS – CLICK HERE
-For his interview with ABA Legend James Silas – CLICK HERE
-For Part 1 of his Conference Tournament Previews – CLICK HERE
-For Part 1 of his All-Conference Awards – CLICK HERE

-Baylor picked up another highly impressive road win as they went into a hostile environment at Texas, and played against a really good Texas team, and got the 68-61 win.  They are once again knocking on the door for a #1 seed.

-Kansas State was right with Texas Tech until the very end, but couldn’t pull it out.  K State has a lot of good wins on their resume, but they are now just 14-15 overall and I can’t imagine that the actual committee would select a team that’s below .500.  I know they’ve said there isn’t a rule against it, and there isn’t, but…it has never happened before.

-San Diego State picked up what was easily their biggest win of the year as they knocked off Wyoming 73-66 on the road.  I think they were squarely on the bubble prior to last night.  I now think they are squarely inside of it.  It was Wyoming’s first loss at home.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-PROVIDENCE AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Both of these teams will likely end up as protected seeds regardless of what happens, but Providence has a chance to get a win that’s so big that they could argue that they belong on the #1 line.

-TENNESSEE AT GEORGIA (SEC).  It feels like Tennessee is close to locking up a protected seed and just needs to avoid bad losses.  Like..Georgia, for instance.

-OLE MISS AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Kentucky still has a chance of ending up on the #1 line, but they pretty much need to win out in order to do it.  The thing is, I think they’re good enough to win out, so…

-NEBRASKA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Ohio State is coming off of a somewhat surprising loss to Maryland, but they’re still in really good shape and will easily be in the top half of the bracket if they can hold serve in these last few games.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12).  If Oklahoma has any chance at all at getting inside the bubble they need to win these last couple of games and avoid an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament.

-DUKE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  Duke is sailing to a protected seed and shouldn’t have any trouble picking up another road win tonight.

-KANSAS AT TCU (Big 12).  Kansas is within reach of a #1 seed, and this would be yet another really good road win if they can knock off a TCU team that looks like they could land in the top half of the bracket.  It goes without saying that it’d be a really big win for TCU as well.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Michigan State picked up a much needed win over the weekend over Purdue, which hopefully pulls them out of the slump they’re in.  They should still easily land in the top half of the bracket.  Michigan’s situation is a little more desperate as they are right on the bubble and need some big wins to help get them on the right side of it.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  This is a very big game as it appears that both teams are very close to the bubble.  That makes this game a very high stakes opportunity for both of them.

-FLORIDA AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  Florida is inside our bubble, but barely.  A loss in a game like this could knock them out of it.  They really need to get this one on the road tonight, which they should be able to do, but it won’t be a cakewalk.

-PURDUE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Both teams look to be solid protected seeds, and Purdue will have a case for a #1 seed if they can pick up a big time road win like this one.  It’s more of a litmus test for both than it is a high stakes game for both.  No matter what happens, both are locks not just to make the field, but getting close to being locks as protected seeds.

-CINCINNATI AT HOUSTON (American).  Houston will go in to The Tournament on the first ballot so long as they avoid losses to teams outside the bubble the rest of the way.   Teams like Cincinnati, for instance.

-LOUISVILLE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  Virginia Tech’s Tournament hopes are still barely flickering, and it goes without saying that if they want to get there they can’t lose a game like this.

-NEVADA AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  Boise State is likely a lock for the NCAA Tournament and is now just playing for seeding.  They should be able to knock off Nevada at home.

-ARIZONA AT USC (Pac 12).  Arizona can almost assuredly lock up a #1 seed if they can win this one on the road tonight, but they are coming off a road loss at Colorado, so they are in a bit of a rebound mode.  USC is locked into the field and is playing only to improve their seed, which if they were to win this one, it would improve a lot.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Mar 1st

The Hoops HD Report (and Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 1) – Feb 28

Posted on February 28, 2022 by David Griggs

It’s the March Madness Eve edition of the Hoops HD Report!!  We look back at a very crazy weekend where seven teams in the top ten all lost all on the same day.  We look at all the major conferences and discuss whether or not Providence would deserve consideration for a #1 seed if they’re able to win at Villanova.  We look at Oregon, VCU, and San Diego State trying to play their way into the field, and more…

We finish with Day 1 of our Championship Week Video Notebook.

We’d also like to welcome all the Selection Committee Members for the Championship Week Video Notebook!!

Check out the HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD, which shows who is a lock, who is on the bubble, and who needs the auto-bid

Also, don’t miss our CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PAGE, which has brackets, times, and viewing information for all 32 conference tourney

Finally, be sure to keep an eye on our most recent BRACKET PROJECTIONS

Here is the audio only version:

ASUN OPENING ROUND:

HORIZON LEAGUE OPENING ROUND:

PATRIOT LEAGUE OPENING ROUND:

Posted in Championship Week Video Notebook, Hoops HD Report, News and Notes, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Happy Anniversary!: HoopsHD interviews ABA legend James Silas

Posted on February 28, 2022 by Jon Teitel

James Silas is living proof that you do not need to be a D-1 superstar to end up as a pro basketball superstar. As as senior at at Stephen F. Austin (which at the time was an NAIA school) he led the Lumberjacks to a 29-1 record, scored 30.7 PPG, and was named an All-American. After joining the ABA he was named an All-Star in both 1975/1976 and in 1997 was named to the ABA All-Time Team. San Antonio realized how special he was a decade earlier when his lucky #13 became the 1st number ever retired by the Spurs. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with James about his nifty nicknames and being 1 of the best FT shooters in ABA history. Today marks the 38th anniversary of James’ jersey retirement on February 28, 1984, so we take this time to honor his life/legacy.

You had several nicknames including “The Snake”, “Captain Late”, and “The Late Mr. Silas”: which 1 did you enjoy the most? Probably “Captain Late” because of the meaning it had: the guys gave it to me for a positive reason (because he always seemed to play his best in clutch time). “Snake” was also my dad’s nickname so that 1 stuck with me the most.

You were a 2-time NAIA All-American at Stephen F. Austin and as a senior you led your team to the NAIA tourney semifinals with a 29-0 record before a 5-PT loss to 2-time-defending-champ Kentucky State: how close did you come to going undefeated? We had 5 seniors on that squad and they all got drafted. We had a center named George Johnson who had been hurt for half of the year. We changed the lineup for the Kentucky State game and it broke the rhythm up…plus the guy he guarded scored around 35 PTS!

You scored 30.7 PPG that year: what is the secret to being a great scorer? Hard work! Back in the day you could always play 1-on-1 or 2-on-2 since we usually did not have enough for a full 5-on-5 game. I would never let anyone beat me 1-on-1 so when we went 5-on-5 it was easy for me: I am glad that my coach believed in me.

In the spring of 1972 you were picked in the 5th round of the NBA draft by Houston, but after getting waived you signed with the Dallas Chaparrals and were named to the ABA All-Rookie team: how did it feel to be waived, and how were you able to make such a smooth transition from college to the pros? When I was drafted there was a player named Johnny Egan who was supposed to retire that year but he changed his mind. They gave somebody else a no-cut contract and had some other great players like future Hall-of-Famer Calvin Murphy so they did not have room for me. I played 1 scrimmage with Houston against Dallas on my college court and I put on a show. They told me on the ride back that they would have to let me go and the next morning Dallas coach Babe McCarthy called my agent and I had my 1st practice that day. Babe had that wide-open game that fit what I did. Once I proved what I could do as a rookie I never looked back.

The Chaparrals moved to San Antonio the following season, where you spent the following 8 years with the Spurs: how did it feel to switch cities by moving farther down I-35, and what did it mean to you to when your #13 became the 1st # ever retired by San Antonio in 1984? I was glad to be playing pro basketball but the city of Dallas was Cowboys-crazy: we could not even give away tickets to get people to come to our games! The fans in San Antonio went crazy for the Spurs because there was no other pro team in the city: we were their heart and soul and we all became family. It is still not the biggest market but we could always hold our own: they later had to raise the roof at the HemisFair Arena to add some more seats. It took me about a year to realize what being the 1st player to have his # retired meant. It was huge and no matter how many titles the team wins that will remain important to all of my friends/family and heartwarming to me.

In Game 7 of the 1979 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Washington you scored 17 PTS but Bob Dandridge scored 37 PTS including the series-winning shot with 8 seconds left as the Bullets became only the 3rd team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 series deficit: do you think that Elvin Hayes should have been whistled for jumping into you at the buzzer, and where does that rank among the most devastating losses of your career? When you play the game at that level it is hard to hold onto 1 particular play. I moved on…but if we played it over then I think that we would win! There are so many tough games/opponents that you just have to forget it and move on.

Your 85.7 career FT% remains #5 in ABA history: what is the key to making FTs? You just said it: free. It is the only time during a 48-minute game when nobody is guarding you. You have to work at it: it is a mental thing but once you figure it out then it is easy. I never thought that I would miss so I tried to take advantage of it.

You were known for being a fabulous 4th quarter scorer: was that due to changing the offensive strategy, or your endurance, or George Gervin getting double-teamed, or other? I remember 1 game against Portland where Gervin had scored about 40 PTS. There were about 9 seconds left and it came down to the final shot: Coach Bob Bass called a timeout and said that we would run a play for Ice…but Gervin declined and said to run the play for me instead. We had a 1-4 play that was hard to guard because I would just read where the double-team might come from. If nobody came to help then I would make 1 hard move and either score or get fouled and make the FTs, and it became part of our offense at the end of every single quarter. It was 1 of the best things that Bob did for me because we had to get Ice/Larry Kenon/Billy Paultz their shots as well.

In 1997 you were named to the ABA All-Time Team: where does that rank among the highlights of your career? Just look at all of the guys who played in the ABA and were selected to the Hall of Fame (Louie Dampier/Charlie Scott/David Thompson/etc.): if I am mentioned as 1 of the best guards in ABA history then that is huge.

You run a summer basketball camp with your son Xavier, who has played pro basketball for most of the past decade: what makes your camp different from other camps, and who is the best athlete in the family? We came up with the idea of “like father, like son”: it is hard to find a pair like us who have both played in the league. We do not do it for numbers: it means a lot if we can teach the kids something and work with them until they get it. I know who is best! I scored more than 12,000 PTS in my career but never made a 3-PT shot because I took the shots that I wanted to take and could get to wherever I wanted to. Back then it was a come-from-behind shot but now players take threes all of the time.

Posted in Interviews | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Conference Tourney Previews (Part 1 of 2)

Posted on February 28, 2022 by Jon Teitel

HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for the 13 conference tourneys getting underway this week/weekend. Tweet us if you have any comments, and check back next weekend for his picks concerning the 19 other conference tourneys.

America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-12
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Hartford (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2015
Seeding: 3 of past 8 champs were #4-seed
The Catamounts appear to be head and shoulders above everyone else in this conference this year and made the title game 4 straight years from 2016-2019 so you have to like their chances. Since losing at Providence in early-December Coach John Becker has gone 18-1 with only a 1-PT OT loss on the road on Valentine’s Day. Since the higher seed will host each tourney game in which they play, Vermont cannot wait to welcome teams to Patrick Gymnasium where they have not lost a single home game this season. Experience counts in March and a team that starts 5 seniors knows the importance of playing your best basketball at the end of the season.

Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Jacksonville State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 1-8
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Liberty (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Liberty has won this tourney 3 years in a row
Seeding: 10 of past 11 champs were top-2 seed
It would be easy to pick Liberty to win its 4th straight tourney but the Gamecocks served notice that they are for real in late-January with a 10-PT win at Lynchburg. They win a lot of games via the 3-PT shot, as their 39.3 3P% is #3 in the nation. Coach Ray Harper has plenty of postseason success to rely on: he won a pair of D-2 titles in 1999/2001, followed by back-to-back NAIA titles in 2007/2008. He just better hope that none of his tourney games end up being a FT-shooting contest, as his opponents this year have made a 4th-best-in-the-nation 77.8 FT% Give me Liberty or give me death…on 2nd thought just give me Jacksonville State!

Big South tourney predicted champ: Longwood (#1 seed)
Dates: March 2-6
Location: Charlotte, NC
2021 tourney champ: Winthrop (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Winthrop has won this tourney 3 times in past 5 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were top-2 seed
History says that Winthrop will win its 4th tourney in the past 6 years, but Longwood says otherwise. I am still unsure how Coach Griff Aldrich flipped the script after 3 straight losing seasons but the Lancers finished 1st in the North Division and have lost exactly 1 game since Christmas. The X-factor for this team is their health, as Justin Hill/Leslie Nkereuwem both missed a pair of games earlier this month due to injuries. Hill scored 29 PTS in their 4-PT win over Winthrop in January so if he brings his A-game then they should be able to lance the Eagles

CAA tourney predicted champ: Towson (#2 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: Washington, DC
2021 tourney champ: Drexel (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2017
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 4 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel/St. Francis NY) who have never made the NCAA tourney. Towson has lost 3 games since early-December and all 3 losses were by 5 PTS or less. Coach Pat Skerry only won 4 games last season but has made a complete turnaround this year by winning 23 games (with 1 game left vs. Delaware on Monday). Each of his top-8 scorers are juniors/seniors so he has nothing to worry about when it comes to veteran leadership. The Tigers did blow a 12-PT lead to UNC-Wilmington at home last month but they had more AST/BLK/3PM than the Seahawks so as long as they can get to the FT line then they have a good shot at winning their 1st-ever CAA tourney title.

Horizon tourney predicted champ: Purdue Fort Wayne (#2 seed)
Dates: March 1-8
Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN
2021 tourney champ: Cleveland State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Northern Kentucky has won this tourney 3 times in past 5 years
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
It is hard to NOT pick the Norse (who have won this tourney 3 times in 4 years) or the Vikings (who are the #1 seed), but it is also hard to overlook the ridiculous run that the Mastodons are on. Coach Jon Coffman finished January with back-to-back losses on the road, but since then he has won 9 in a row including a triple-OT win over Cleveland State after overcoming a 14-PT 2nd half deficit! They start 5 seniors including 5’8” PG Damian Chong-Qui, who already showed that he can deliver in March when he scored 14 PTS in last year’s 1st 4 as a player at Mt. St. Mary’s.

MVC tourney predicted champ: Missouri State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 3-6
Location: St. Louis, MO
2021 tourney champ: Loyola Chicago (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs since 2018 are Bradley/Loyola-Chicago
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
#1 seeds have not fared well in this tourney so instead of Northern Iowa I will go with the Bears. They already have wins over Bradley/Drake/Loyola-Chicago and only lost to Northern Iowa by a single point last month. Their FT shooting will keep them in any game as their 79.6 FT% is #7 in the nation, and JR G Isiaih Mosley exploded for 40+ PTS in multiple games last month. Coach Dana Ford has never made the NCAA tourney but finally won more than 20 games for the 1st time in his career so this might be the year that he gets there.

NEC predicted champ: Bryant (#1 seed)
Dates: February 28-March 8
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Mt. St. Mary’s (#4 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 champs in past 14 years are Fairleigh Dickinson/Long Island/Mount St. Mary’s/Robert Morris
Seeding: each of past 22 champs were top-4 seed
Even though there have only been 4 different champs during the past 13 years, Bryant/Wagner have separated themselves from the rest of this field. Just a few days ago Wagner was looking like the best pick after beating Bryant in OT last month…but the Seahawks stubbed all of their toes down the stretch by losing 3 of their final 5 games. In contrast, since that OT loss to begin the month of January the Bulldogs have won 13 of 14 and avenged their loss to Wagner by winning the rematch at home on Saturday. Coach Jared Grasso’s team is not that great from behind the arc (30.7 3P%), but instead of kissing their chances goodbye they just need to get the ball to the leading scorer in the nation (Peter Kiss, who is scoring 25.1 PPG).

OVC predicted champ: Murray State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 2-5
Location: Evansville, IN
2021 tourney champ: Morehead State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
This is technically a 3-team race between Murray State/Morehead State/Belmont with each having a legitimate chance to win it all. However, even though Belmont has been in the title game during each of the past 4 years, the Racers’ only loss since Thanksgiving is at Auburn and they beat both of the other top contenders by double-digits last month. Coach Matt McMahon went 13-13 last year but is dominating this year by defending the 3-PT line as his team’s 29.7 3P% allowed is top-25 in the nation. Big man KJ Williams just set a career-high a couple of weeks ago with 39 PTS in a win at Tennessee State, and if you double-team him then Tevin Brown will make you pay from long range as his 39.3 3P% is best in the conference.

Patriot predicted champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Dates: March 1-9
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Colgate (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Colgate has made title game in each of past 4 years
Seeding: each of past 5 champs were top-3 seed
Navy is the sentimental favorite: it would be quite a sight to see the Midshipmen win this tourney for the 1st time since 1998. However, my own sentiment lies with my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, who has been in the title game during each of the past 4 years. The play “Hamilton” was a smash hit on Broadway and the home-cooking that the Raiders will get while playing each of their postseason games in the city of Hamilton as the higher seed should pay similar dividends. They were 4-10 in early-January but have looked great since then with only a single loss on the road by 4 PTS thanks to a 39.1 3P% that is #5 in the nation. Few things keep a coach calmer in March than a SR PG and Colgate has 1 of the best in the business in Nelly Cummings (14.6 PPG/3.4 APG/36.8 3P%/82.1 FT%).

SoCon predicted champ: Samford (#3 seed)
Dates: March 4-7
Location: Asheville, NC
2021 tourney champ: UNC-Greensboro (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs in past 3 years
Seeding: UNCG has made title game in 4 of past 5 years
Chattanooga seemed to be running away with this league, especially after sweeping Furman a couple of weeks ago, but then pulled a 180 with consecutive home losses in mid-February. In contrast, Samford started conference play 1-6 but has won 9 of 11 since then to become the hottest team in the conference. Coach Bucky McMillan only won 6 games in his debut season last year but knows exactly what it takes to win in March: as a high school coach in Alabama won a trio of 7A championships, a pair of 6A championships, and was named national boys basketball COY in 2018. He does not have a single SR among his top-7 scorers, but he does have a transfer from Florida in Ques Glover who has turned into the best PG in the league (19.1 PPG/4.4 APG).

Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2021 tourney champ: Oral Roberts (#4 seed)
Fun fact: North Dakota State has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were #4 seed
The Jackrabbits owned this tourney from 2012-2018 when they won it 5 times in 7 years but they have not even made the title game during each of the past 3 years. That should change next month because since losing at Missouri State in mid-December they have won 18 in a row. There is no secret to their success: they are the best 3-PT shooting team in the nation at 44.3 3P%. Most mid-major teams rely on upperclassmen but the X-factor for South Dakota State just might be FR Zeke Mayo. He went to high school less than 1 mile from Phog Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, KS, but has been a great fit in Brookings: he has not lost a single game since entering the starting lineup right before Christmas and has only missed 2 FTs during his college career!

Sun Belt predicted champ: Georgia State (#3 seed)
Dates: March 3-7
Location: Pensacola, FL
2021 tourney champ: Appalachian State (#4 seed)
Fun fact: Georgia State has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
The Panthers began this month 2-5 in conference play but won each of their final 7 regular season games to turn things around at the right time. This tournament has not been kinds to #1 seeds, so even though Texas State has won 9 in a row the pick is Georgia State. Coach Rob Lanier has finished with a winning record in each of his 3 years in Atlanta and is getting it done with defense despite allowing 37.9 3P%. He starts a bunch of juniors/seniors including a trio of guards who do a little of everything: Kane Williams/Corey Allen/Justin Roberts are each averaging more than 11 PPG/3 RPG/2 APG.

WCC predicted champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Dates: March 3-8
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2021 tourney champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 18 titles in past 24 years and finished 2nd each of the other 6 times
Seeding: 21 of past 23 champs were top-2 seed
While St. Mary’s deserves a ton of credit for pulling off a great upset on Saturday night, Coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 21 straight NCAA tourney appearances (not counting the COVID cancellation), 21 regular season titles, 17 conference tourney titles, and a 14-time conference COY. The Bulldogs have lost exactly 4 regular season conference games during the past 6 YEARS so the smart money in Vegas is not on the rest of the field. They have a senior who can score from inside (Drew Timme: 58.3 FG%), a freshman who can shoot from outside (Chet Holmgren: 43.8 3P%), and a SR PG who runs the offense to perfection (Andrew Nembhard: 5.5 APG).

Posted in Conference Preview | Comments Off on Conference Tourney Previews (Part 1 of 2)

Bracket Projections (From the Puppet) – February 28th

Posted on February 28, 2022 by David Griggs

Before you read any further, I want to make sure you know what you are looking at.  This IS NOT an attempt to guess what the actual selection committee will do.  If that is what you’re looking for, then CLICK HERE to check out Jon Teitel’s Bracket.  He is one of the best people on the planet at guessing the selection committee.

What I try to do is EDUCATE the committee!!  I instruct them on what they SHOULD be doing, not what I think they will actually do.  If there is any discrepancies between my bracket and the one that the actual committee puts together, then it is them that is wrong!  I am NEVER wrong!!

Below are some comments on the bracket explaining why I did some of the things I did, and then below that are some comments from the staff.  If any of the rest of the staff makes comments that disagree with what I have done, then ignore them!  They are wrong!!

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Oregon, Saint Bonaventure, Notre Dame, SMU, San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Dayton, Belmont, Virginia Tech

 

NOTES FROM THE PUPPET: 

-I’ll begin with the one thing that I know that’s making peoples’ heads explode, and that is the selection of Kansas State.  This is absolutely the correct, and ingenious selection!!  Yes, their overall record is 14-14, but their overall SOS is 5, they have three true road wins against teams in the top half of the bracket, and if you look at their 14 losses, four of them are away from home against teams on the #5 line or higher.  Those are not the kinds of losses that you’d ding a protected seed for, much less a bubble team.  If you were to replace those four losses with four meaningless tier 4 wins, everyone would agree that they belong in.  Well…THAT’S WHY THEY STILL BELONG IN!!  IT IS THE CORRECT SELECTION!!!!

-The other thing that’s making people jump out of their seats is Kentucky on the #1 line over Kansas.  Kentucky has wins away from home against three teams that are likely to be seeded on the #5 line or better, whereas Kansas has zero.  Oh yeah, and one of Kentucky’s wins was at Kansas.  So, having them up there is absolutely the right decision and anyone who disagrees with it is wrong!!

-VCU is in the bracket.  They in every way seem to have a better resume than BYU.  The road wins at Davidson, Dayton, and Vanderbilt are respectable, and their worse loss is to a Wagner team that they should have beaten, but that also isn’t nearly as bad as some of the teams that some of the other teams have lost to.

-Saint Bonaventure is VERY close.  Their NET is probably making people hold their noses, but when you look at literally everything else on their resume, I think they are very close to a bid.

-It doesn’t feel like Xavier should be in this field based on the tailspin that they’ve been on, and it feels like a team like Saint Bonaventure should be there instead, but I just can’t seem to get them out of my bracket entirely because of the good things they did early in the season.  It’s still more than what most other bubble teams have done.

I advise everyone to stop reading now!!  NO REASON AT ALL TO READ WHAT THE REST OF THE STAFF HAS TO SAY!!

STAFF COMMENTS:

From Chad:

— David was right to comment that his Kentucky pick on the 1 line may be called out, because it is just awful.  Kansas has an amazing *EIGHT* Tier 1 wins away from home.  Kentucky has only five.  While UK’s resume is very strong, the simple fact is that KU’s blows them away.  If the two teams were next to each other on the seed list, I could see the head-to-head win coming into play.  They are not.  In fact, Kentucky is closer to being a 3 seed right now than a 1.

— I also have no idea why Auburn is still a 1 seed.  In the past two weeks, the Tigers have lost twice, once to a Florida team that is only in the field (barely) because of that win.  Baylor just beat Kansas, and much like KU, also has *EIGHT* wins away from home against Tier 1.  Auburn only has three of those.  Auburn is a 2 seed.

— Alabama is under-seeded on the 6 line.  In fact, I would have the Tide on the 4 line right now.  I get the bad losses at Missouri and Georgia hurt, but 12 wins against the top two tiers is very impressive to me still.  And, as seen in David’s nonsensical argument about Kansas State, losses don’t even count for him.

— Michigan and Memphis on the 10 line are both mind-boggling.  Michigan is a First Four team right now after their loss this weekend.  You cannot ignore the 15-12 overall record or being 5 games under .500 against the top two tiers.  The Wolverines are much-improved and very dangerous right now, but they are over-seeded as a 10.  However, an even worse choice was Memphis as a 10.  This team is not even in my top four out right now.  The Tigers have two wins over teams in the field (Alabama home and Houston road) and 7 losses to teams not in the field (5 of which are to teams not even on anyone’s board to be in the field).  That is a middling NIT resume at best.

— VCU and Rutgers are both tough sells for me as tournament teams right now, but also should be in the First Four at best.  At least these two teams would be in my top four out.

— San Francisco should be above the First Four.  Florida is appropriately in the First Four.  BYU in an NIT team (though also among my top four teams out) while Kansas State would be lucky if the CBI called.  I get that the Wildcats played a very tough schedule.  But you have to win games sooner or later, not just lose to good teams.  K State has 4 wins against teams in the field and 4 losses to teams not in the field.  I am not penalizing them for their schedule, but if you play that tough of a schedule, you cannot lose the games you play against non-tournament teams.  At least their 4-4 record of wins against the field vs losses out of it is better than Memphis’ 2-7!!!

— Teams that should be in that David left out include Notre Dame (they beat Kentucky, a 1 seed according to Griggs!), Wake Forest, North Carolina (both teams have not done anything good, but really have no bad either at least), San Diego State (the Aztecs’ losses are all Tier 1, which is better than Kansas State can say) and Oregon (won 3 of 4 vs USC and UCLA).

— One last comment on Kansas State:  if you want to go with another Big 12 team, I would rather see Oklahoma in the field right now.  The Sooners are 1 game over .500, have 4 wins against the field and only 3 losses to teams not in it (better than K State!).  Oh yeah, they also beat K State head-to-head!

— I do agree with the decision to put North Texas on the 11 line as well as David’s choice of UC-Irvine as the auto-bid team out of the Big West.  At least he did something right!!!

From John:

First, a public service announcement to the Puppet:

– That said, I agree with Chad in that Auburn is more 2-seedish right now and that at least one Big 12 team should be on the top line. However, I also agree with the Puppet that Kentucky has a huge ace in the hole with a road win not only against a protected seed, but one that could easily be on the 1-line. However, I’d give Baylor a slight nod over Kansas with 11 Quad 1 wins over KU’s 10, especially with a win against Nova thrown in. I also give Baylor huge credit for staying on a winning track despite an injury to a key player.

– Putting Texas Tech on the 2 line is also a good call – sweeping Baylor en route to a 4-3 record against protected seeds does give the Red Raiders a road win against an aforementioned protected seed. Hence, I’d agree with them up here versus, say, Providence.

– Michigan State and Saint Mary’s really helped themselves this weekend – the Spartans got a much-needed win at home against Purdue to slow down their current slide, and the Gaels cemented their bid with a home win against Gonzaga. That said, is Houston really a 7-seed right now? The wheels haven’t fallen off completely just yet.

– I’m thinking Indiana-Rutgers could potentially be a play-in game this week if a bid thief surfaces during Championship week.

– And get over your anti-ACC bias. You can hold your nose by putting teams like Notre Dame, Wake and North Carolina in the field, but I wouldn’t be putting teams like Xavier, VCU and K-State above them. Xavier has completely fallen apart in the absence of Nate Johnson, VCU is very meh despite piling up road wins in a mediocre A-10 and K-State is dead on arrival with a .500 overall record right now.

Posted in Bracketology | Comments Off on Bracket Projections (From the Puppet) – February 28th

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Feb 28th

Posted on February 28, 2022 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Championship Week begins tonight!!!  CLICK HERE for this year’s first edition of the CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK VIDEO NOTEBOOK

-Don’t miss Jon Teitel’s All-Conference Awards!!!

-Illinois picked up another nice road win as they knocked off Michigan 93-85.  They are getting closer and closer to locking up a protected seed.  This is a game Michigan could have really used since they are hovering around the bubble.

-Ohio State, who had been on a roll, actually got rolled by a mediocre (at best) Maryland team 75-60.  It’s not THAT much of a setback for Ohio State, but it will knock them back a little.

-Indiana picked up a nice road win at Minnesota 84-79, which will help polish up their resume.  They looked fantastic for about 34 minutes or so and built up a lead of over 20pts, but Minnesota came back and got as close as 3 before Indiana held on for the win.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-SYRACUSE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  North Carolina continues to hover around the bubble, and their resume has started to look slightly better in recent weeks.  They need to hold serve in this one.

-NORTHWESTERN AT IOWA (Big Ten).  Iowa is continuing to play well and climb the seedlist, and should hold serve in this one.

-KANSAS STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12).  Kansas State has enough good things on their resume to get selected if they can just get their overall record in a little bit better of shape.  Having said that, winning on the road at Texas Tech is a VERY tall order.  The Red Raiders appear to be cruising toward a protected seed.

-BAYLOR AT TEXAS (Big 12).  Both were projected as top 16 teams by the committee last week, and Baylor is coming off a big home win against Kansas.  We’ve got Baylor around the #2 line and Texas hovering somewhere between the #4 and #5 lines.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT WYOMING (Mountain West).  We have both teams inside the bubble, but San Diego State kind of close to it.  If they can get this win on the road, it will give them a huge boost.

-UCLA AT WASHINGTON (Pac 12).  UCLA should lock up a protected seed if they hold serve the rest of the way.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Feb 28th