NEWS AND NOTES:
-Kentucky, who had been looking like the best team in the nation, did not look that way last night. Long scoring and field goal droughts plagued them as Tennessee rolled 76-63. It was a great showing by the Vols, especially on the defensive end.
-Villanova got what was arguably their most impressive win of the year as they went into Providence, played a top ten team in front of a hostile environment, and basically had a lead from tip to buzzer in an 89-84 win.
-Duke had to sweat, and Coach K did not come out for the second half due to health concerns, but they held on to beat Wake Forest 76-74 with a game winning dunk in the final seconds. This would have been a massive win for Wake and put to bed any debate as to whether or not they belonged inside the bubble.
-Wisconsin had to gut it out at Indiana, but they got the 74-69 win.
-Michigan State fell on the road at Penn State 62-58. At times the Spartans have looked good enough to make the Final Four, and at other times you’re really scratching your head. Then again, if you look at Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament history, perhaps they feel their chances of a deep run are better if they are a #7 seed.
-Texas got a big overtime win at Oklahoma 80-78. The Sooners have been looking a lot better, but what they need is wins and they kind of let this one get away last night.
-Wyoming was unable to win their first game after cracking the rankings, and it was a bit of a surprising loss to New Mexico 75-66. The Pit is traditionally not an easy place to play, but New Mexico has not looked good at all this year, so it was a bit of a surprise.
-I don’t want to declare that Memphis is inside the bubble yet, but I am going to declare that they are now very much worth paying attention to. After six straight wins, and their last two coming at Houston and at Cincinnati, they are at least looking like a solid tournament team at the moment. Their game at SMU this Sunday is HUGE…
-Florida is on the bubble. Florida lost at Texas A&M 56-55. Texas A&M is outside the bubble. That is not good for Florida.
-Iowa State needed a good win in the worst way, and got it on the road last night against TCU. Their overall resume is solid minus their record in conference, but that may not be a factor. Still, stringing together wins between now and the end is very much in the best interest of the Cyclones.
– While South Carolina’s win at Ole Miss has absolutely no NCAA Tournament implications, it is always fun to watch an overtime buzzer beater from Angry Frank’s team. Oh, and this was a halfcourt game-winner. There is that.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-SAINT JOHN’S AT XAVIER (Big East). Xavier appears to be cruising toward the top half of the bracket and should be able to hold serve tonight.
-ILLINOIS AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). Rutgers is starting to look more and more like a Tournament team both on paper and on the court They’ve got a chance to pick up another very notable win tonight against an Illinois team that is really good, but not quite as good on the road.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT ALABAMA (SEC). Alabama still has a path to a protected seed and has been very good at home this year. Mississippi State has not been able to do anything on the road this year, so…
-MIAMI FL AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). I think Miami is inside the bubble and will make the field so long as they hold serve. That would mean they would need to win tonight.
-BOSTON COLLEGE AT NOTRE DAME (ACC). The Irish have won eight of their last nine and their resume continues to get stronger. They should be able to hold serve tonight.
-GEORGIA AT LSU (SEC). LSU has digressed some over the last few weeks, but they haven’t digressed to the point to where they are likely to struggle tonight. In fact a game like this could help them reform some good habits and be the start of starting to play like a protected seed again.
-GEORGETOWN AT MARQUETTE (Big East). It has been a nightmare of a season for Georgetown. Marquette has lost two straight, including a surprising loss to Butler in their last game, but their resume is still outstanding and they could still end up as a protected seed if they can get back to playing the way they were prior to last week.
-PITTSBURGH AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). Until North Carolina gets a good win on their resume they have to continue to avoid bad losses.
-LOYOLA CHICAGO AT VALPARAISO (Missouri Valley). Loyola Chicago is still inside the bubble, but I wouldn’t call them safe. They need to win out through the regular season for me to feel like they can safely make the field.
-SETON HALL AT UCONN (Big East). I really like UConn’s resume, but they’ve lost three of their last five and barely beat a mediocre (at best) Saint John’s team in their last game. Seton Hall has been playing really well. They did lose to Villanova their last time out, but you can hardly ding them for that. Both teams are likely Tournament teams, so this is a resume building opportunity.
-VANDERBILT AT AUBURN (SEC). Auburn is still on a path for a #1 seed and shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one.
-PURDUE AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Purdue has struggled on the road at times this year, including against teams that don’t appear to be inside the bubble, but their resume is still outstanding and they could still wind up as a #1 seed.
-BAYLOR AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). This is a big time showcase game between Baylor, who is almost certainly a protected seed, and Texas Tech, who has a very good chance of getting a protected seed barring a collapse. The fans should be out in full force for this one.
-SMU AT TEMPLE (American). SMU can make the field, but their margin for error is small. They basically need to win all their remaining games minus maybe the road game at Houston.
-BOISE STATE AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West). Boise State is coming off a tough overtime loss to Colorado State, but I still think they are a solid team that is very much inside the bubble. They should be able to pick this one up on the road tonight.
-GONZAGA AT PEPPERDINE (West Coast). Gonzaga is the top ranked team who has a rather clear path to a #1 seed if they win out, which they are certainly good enough to do.
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Monday, February 14
This week, it is time for staff member John Stalica to make his initial bracket projection of the season. This is not a guess at what the NCAA Selection Committee will do; that is the prerogative of members like Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller.
And without further ado, here is the bracket:
First Four Out – BYU, Oregon, SMU, VCU
Others Considered – Dayton, Virginia, Memphis, Michigan, Santa Clara, Belmont, Oklahoma, West Virginia
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– I’m not going to change the position of Auburn and Gonzaga based on the Tigers’ loss at Arkansas – there is more than enough good on the bone of Auburn to stay atop the overall bracket at this time. I am also becoming more and more of a believer in Kentucky as I currently have them as a #1 seed and #3 overall. They not only have wins at Kansas and Alabama along with a home win against Tennessee and a neutral-court win against North Carolina, the Wildcats are beating them into submission.
– We thought injuries might eventually catch up to Houston, but it’s not inconceivable that they would have been expected to have at least a couple of losses in the American at this point. Losing at SMU would have been forgivable, but losing at home to Memphis this year isn’t indicative of what a protected seed should do, especially with teams like Texas, Ohio State and Tennessee breathing down their necks.
– Wyoming has now cracked the Top 25 and have a seed consistent with such a ranking right now. They could potentially elevate their seed higher should they be able to win at arch-rival Colorado State in a week. Colorado State also had a big win at Boise State to help solidify their profile and people across the nation were partying last night!
– I know the Puppet loves to skewer North Carolina for their lack of Quad 1 wins (and deservedly so), but at some point I do have to at least reward them for winning all the games they’re supposed to be winning and not taking on any bad losses. Frankly, I’m getting more offended by Iowa’s resume and bloated NET – they still have no Quad 1 wins and actually have a pair of Quad 2 losses (and a loss at a fading Iowa State team).
– Don’t adjust your glasses, you read it correctly. Kansas State is in this field. Their overall record is barely passable, but then again so are Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Wildcats are actually 5-4 away from home and that includes wins at Texas, TCU and Iowa State among others. They’d be in even more fields had they beaten Kansas at home a couple weeks ago.
– And yes, I’m also on the Rutgers bandwagon after the Scarlet Knights have put together a 3-game winning streak against Top 25 foes. They took down Michigan State and Ohio State at The RAC and won for the first time at Wisconsin. The win against the Badgers gives Rutgers a 6-3 record against Quad 1 teams, yet they’re an atrocious 9-6 against Quads 2, 3 and 4. They should be dead on arrival, yet I can’t justify putting a team like Oregon (losing to Cal – really?) or BYU ahead of them anymore.
– On a humorous sidenote, both Purdue and Loyola-Chicago should be relieved that the NCAA moved the first and second-round games from Cincinnati down the road to Indianapolis after a deal to renovate Heritage Bank Center (formerly USBank Arena) failed to surface. Kentucky might have wished for Cincinnati instead upon seeing their potential 2nd-round opponent.
STAFF COMMENTS
From Chad:
– Although I firmly believe that Arizona belongs on the top seed line over Kentucky, I may be more offended by the choice of Auburn #1 overall rather than Gonzaga. The Zags have more Tier 1A wins, more Tier 1 wins away from home and are, quite frankly, a better team.
– Indiana is over-seeded on John’s 8 line. The Hoosiers have lost 3 in a row and don’t have any road wins of note. Further, they have a losing record vs Quad 1 (2-5) and Quads 1 and 2 combined (4-8). Beating Purdue at home can only prop a team up for so long — sooner or later this team needs a quality road win.
– Speaking of teams without quality wins, Wake Forest does not belong on the 9 line. Or the 10 line. Or the 11 line. Or the 12. Or the 13, 14, 15 or 16. They belong in the NIT. This team has no wins of note, and (unlike North Carolina) has two losses to teams that are nowhere near the Board.
– John has Creighton on the 11 line. Most bracketologists have them right near the cut-line right now. I don’t understand that. This team beat Villanova and won at UConn and Marquette. Those are three teams way above them, and 2 of those 3 wins were on the road. That easily makes up for a bad home loss to Arizona State. I would have them on the 9 line, at least.
– Kansas State is a dangerous team to play, but they do not belong in right now. The wins are amazing, but 13-11 overall has to count for something. The Wildcats belong “on the board”, but they better beat West Virginia tonight if they want to be seriously considered.
– Why is Toledo on the 12 line and a First Four game in the 13 line? Toledo is a good team, and very dangerous, but they do not have the profile to be ranked above at-large teams. (Note from John – I forgot to note I had to do a swap between the play-in game and Toledo – the Rockets would nominally have been my top 13-seed)
– Saint Louis in the field is an awful pick. They won at Boise State but have two bad losses. Their only other win against the field is an Iona team at home that counts as Tier 3 right now. The Billikens are about 10-12 teams out on my board.
– Rutgers — I am an RU grad and I love the Quad 1 wins. I want them in. I actually had them as my top team out this morning. But, I will take John’s argument on my Scarlet Knights.
– Where is Belmont in this field? If you want a team that is not from a power conference (Saint Louis) as your last team in, take the Bruins!!!
– I would have BYU and Oklahoma in as well, though there are strong cases against each (though not as much of one against BYU). Oregon, SMU, Virginia, Michigan and Memphis are all close too.
– In sum, John did a decent job, but he quite honestly lost almost all merit when he got to his final teams in and put K State and Saint Louis in the field. There are so many better choices. However, because he put Rutgers in, I grade him an A+.
FROM DAVID:
-I agree that Rutgers belongs in the field, and should perhaps even be inside the First Four. I don’t know if the real committee would put them in or not, but they should. They’ve got some warts, but they have more good on their resume than several teams that are likely to go in on the first ballot.
-I don’t understand why anyone thinks Wake or North Carolina are any good. I just think the rest of the world has gone crazy.
-I’m not crazy about the Kansas State pick either, but they make more sense than Wake and UNC. The problem is that Stalica took all three.