Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

-The Showcase Game of the year (so far) was played yesterday and won by Auburn as they went on the road and knocked off the Alabama Crimson Tide 94-85. They had a lead for most of the game, and it was one of the more impressive singular wins that any team has managed this season. I don’t know if Auburn is the best team of all time, and it’s too early to even start making that argument, but they are putting together one of the strongest tournament profiles that I have ever seen. Yesterday was their fourth win away from home against a current top ten team. They were (deservedly so) the committee’s #1 overall seed yesterday.

-Tennessee trailed Vanderbilt by double digits in the second half, but came back to win 81-76. They were #5 overall on the committee’s seed list, so they are still very much within reach of a #1 seed.

-Houston is still looking like one of the more dangerous teams in the country, and they got another massively impressive win as they went into Arizona and got the 62-58 win on the road. Houston could still end up reaching the #1 line depending on how things play out.

-Wisconsin, who I have been dogging all season long, went on the road and got a season defining 94-84 win at Purdue. I am a believer now. With that win it is almost impossible to argue that Wisky is not a protected seed caliber team.

-Michigan State got a really nice win on the road against an inconsistent, but still really strong, Illinois team. They pulled away from the Illini in the second half for a 79-65 win in what was one of their more impressive showings of the year.

-Texas, who is squarely on our bubble, got a big win that they really needed at home against Kentucky 82-78. It was a home win, and Kentucky is just 2-5 in true road games so I don’t think the actual committee will give them quite as much credit as many bracketologists might, but it was still a big win for Texas, and it was definitely one that they needed.

-Kansas is another team that’s good overall, but who’s not so good in true road games. They fell at Utah last night 74-67 and were behind pretty much the entire way. The Jayhawks are now just 3-6 in true road games, and none of those three wins came against teams that are anywhere close to the field. That isn’t bad, but when compared to most of the other protected seeded teams it is a hole in their profile, and it may be why they were toward the bottom of the #4 line on the committee’s seed list yesterday.

-Mississippi State had a huge win yesterday on the road against rival Ole Miss 81-71, which completed the sweep of their rivals and adds another high caliber road win to their resume.

-Missouri, who had not been the best road team themselves, did knock off Georgia yesterday 87-74, which adds another nice win to their resume. Georgia was/is a bubble team, but they are an impressive 13-3 at home, so Mizzou will get some credit for the win.

-And in what has to be one of the bigger shocks of the year….UConn, who was (and still likely is) easily heading toward the top half of the bracket, and Seton Hall, who was in contention for this year’s Centenary Award, squared off in what appeared to just be a go-through-the-motions-game. So of course Seton Hall pulled the upset in overtime. It’s one of the biggest upsets of the season so far. Even after yesterday’s result the two are still 186 spots apart in the NET. Anyway, that’s not a mortal wound for the Huskies, but it is one that will require a few stitches.

-Wake Forest, who is straddling the bubble, got a win they really needed on the road at SMU yesterday. Wake still has a shot, and if they somehow manage to go into Duke and win on the last week of the season then they’ll certainly be in the mix, but aside from that they really can’t lose any.

-Oklahoma….good lord! They had LSU beat and were just going through the motions to put it away…and completely crashed the car right before the finish line. After several mistakes, LSU escaped with an 82-79 road win. For Oklahoma, they’re on the bubble, and they just lost at home to a team that’s nowhere near the bubble. That’s not good.

-Kansas State, who had been one of the hottest teams in the country, was not quite hot enough to win at BYU yesterday. They fell behind early, and had to play catch-up the whole game, and just never caught up. K State still has a path to the field, but the remaining schedule is tough and the margin for error is super thin.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-MEMPHIS AT WICHITA STATE (American). Another road test for the Tigers, but it’s also another conference game where they appear to be under-matched, and should be able to hold serve, and if they do they’ll end up well inside the top half of the bracket.

-MICHIGAN AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Michigan was given a 4-seed by the committee yesterday and have also won five straight for a really solid overall profile. Ohio State is still squarely on the bubble, and is a little hard to place given how inconsistent their resume is. Having said that, they are 5-2 in their last seven games and are starting to look a little more consistent. A win today would give their resume a huge and much needed boost.

-BRADLEY AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley). If Drake wins out, I do believe they’ll be inside the bubble and in the field regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. Bradley is one of the stronger teams in the league, but they’ve been skidding lately and Drake should be able to beat them at home.

-CREIGHTON AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Both teams are coming off losses and looking to bounce back, but prior to the losses earlier in the week both were two of the hottest teams in the country. Saint John’s was given the last protected seed yesterday, and they have a chance between now and the end to build up their resume even more. Creighton can’t be far off themselves and a road win like this could be the difference in whether or not they end up with a protected seed.

-NEBRASKA AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Nebraska is squarely on the bubble so every game has that pivotal and must-win feel to it. This is a chance to pick up a conference road win, which would be their fifth true road win of the year. The Huskers are coming off a loss, but had won four straight prior to that and appear to be moving in the right direction.

-UTAH STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). These are two of the better teams in the MWC. We have both inside the bubble and both will stay there so long as they continue to win at the rates that they have been. This is a resume boosting opportunity for both, and perhaps one of the bigger remaining opportunities to get a big win that either team has between now and the end of the season.

-RUTGERS AT OREGON (Big Ten). Oregon has been digressing lately and needs to hold serve at home against a so-so Rutgers team.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-AUBURN AT ALABAMA (SEC). If our research is correct, this is just the 4th time in the last 25 years that we’ve had a #1 vs #1 matchup in men’s college basketball. Auburn sits atop the AP Poll, and Alabama sits atop the Coaches’ Poll. And it’s a big rivalry game. And it’s a conference game. And the top seed in the South is up for grabs, which means getting sent to Atlanta for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight. The two will meet at least one more time in the regular season, and could face each other again in the SEC Tournament, so there isn’t anything that will be finalized today, but it is still a really exciting and very unique matchup considering the storyline coming into this one.

-ARKANSAS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Arkansas is continuing to try and make a run at the bubble, but at some point needs a few more wins like this in order to get them there. Texas A&M is a really good legit top ten team that may be getting overlooked a little bit just because of how many other great teams are in the SEC.

-VANDERBILT AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Vanderbilt won the first meeting between these two, but going on the road and doing it again is a whole other challenge. Vandy is a home court hero, and while they’re inside the bubble for now, a road win like this would push them much further inside of it. Tennessee is still within reach of a #1 seed, so every game is big for them.

-WISCONSIN AT PURDUE (Big Ten). I have not been nearly as big on Wisky as most of the rest of Hoops HD, and I guess most of the rest of everyone else out there who follows college sports. I’m going on record now to say that if they can get this one on the road, I’m right there with everyone else. This would be a protected seed caliber win for the Badgers. Purdue is coming off a tough loss at Michigan and is looking to bounce back. Prior to that they had looked as strong as just about anyone in the country.

-HOUSTON AT ARIZONA (Big 12). This is a major showcase game between two highly ranked teams that seem to be on a path toward protected seeds. Houston may still have an outside shot at getting a #1 seed, but they’d need to win games like this in order to do it. Arizona is coming off their first loss in a while as they fell to Kansas State and will be looking to bounce back.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT BAYLOR (Big 12). This is a big game for both teams, especially West Virginia who may be sliding outside of the field and who needs wins to show they can still win big games despite the injuries. Baylor still has some work to do as well and needs to hold serve in this one at home.

-MISSOURI AT GEORGIA (SEC). Mizzou continues to put together really impressive looking wins and climb the seedlist. One area where could stand to improve is true road wins. They only have two on the year and this is a shot for them to get a 3rd. Georgia is squarely on the bubble, so every game has a pivotal feel for them. Like all bubble teams, they could really use a win like this.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT OLE MISS (SEC). It’s a rivarly game between two ranked teams who still have shots at ending up as protected seeds. So, it means a lot both on and off paper. The first game between these two was an overtime thriller with Ole Miss getting the win on the road, which is one of their biggest wins of the season. It should be another good one today.

-WAKE FOREST AT SMU (SEC). Hoops HD has both teams squarely on the bubble, which makes this game hugely important and hugely pivotal for both these teams. Simple as that. It has the feel of a must-win game.

-ILLINOIS AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Both teams have had their ups and downs, but when they’ve had their ups they’ve been about as good as anyone in the country. Both still have room on their resumes for improvement, and both could really use this win today.

-KENTUCKY AT TEXAS (SEC). Kentucky should end up as a protected seed if they keep going like they have been, especially when you look at how impressive some of their wins have been. They could use a few more road wins, and this is perhaps one of their more winnable remaining road games. Texas is right on the bubble and will likely have a huge sense of urgency coming into this one. They could really use it.

-KANSAS STATE AT BYU (Big 12). This is yet another very pivotal game between two teams that are right on the bubble. K State is on fire with six straight wins against some of the strongest teams in the country, but they still have work to do. If they get this one, they may make our next bracket projection. BYU is right on the bubble and given how soft their OOC schedule was they probably need to get pretty far inside of it in order to feel safe. This is a big game for both of these teams.

-BOISE STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). We’ve been kind of quiet about Boise State lately, but I still like their profile and I think if they can get this win on the road, which I know is a tall order, they will be back in the picture and perhaps back inside the bubble. San Diego State is in our field, but they need to hold serve and finish strong in order to stay there.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:

-Clemson @ Florida State (ACC) – Clemson continues to roll and outside of Duke may be the best team in the ACC. They have a somewhat challenging, but also winnable conference road game today.

-Depaul @ Xavier (Big East) – If Xavier is going to make the NCAA Tournament then they pretty much need to win out

-Saint Joseph’s @ George Mason (Atlantic 10) – if George Mason can win out then they should get a serious look from the committee

-Vermont @ Maine (America East) – this game won’t impact the bracket, but will have a big impact on the AEast standings and potentially who gets home court advantage in the semis of the AEast Tournament

-Connecticut @ Seton Hall (Big East) – it’s a conference game, and it’s a road game, but it still carries little more weight than what a home buy game would for UConn

-Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (Big 12) – Texas Tech had a poor performance earlier in the week, but they still got the win and they should be able to pick this one up away from home as well

-Stanford @ Duke (ACC) – Duke has a clear path to a #1 seed and just needs to hold serve in order to get there. Stanford may be able to reach the bubble, but they’d probably need a win like this in order to do it

-Cincinnati @ Iowa State (Big 12) – Iowa State hasn’t looked like a #1 seed 100 percent of the time, but they’ve done it enough to where they should cruise to a protected seed and should be able to hold serve at home today

-Wyoming @ Colorado State (Mountain West, Front Range) – We at Hoops HD LOVE the Front Range!!

-LSU @ Oklahoma (SEC) – the Sooners are still hovering around the bubble and need to hold serve in the few conference games they play that are “easy.”

-UC Davis @ UC San Diego (Big West) – I think UCSD should be inside the bubble if they win out the regular season, which they are good enough to do

-Akron @ Central Michigan (MAC) – this game doesn’t impact the bracket, but Akron is unbeaten in conference play and will be a dangerous team in the Round of 64 if they’re able to get there

-Princeton @ Yale (Ivy League) – these are the top two teams, and if Yale wins it there is almost no chance anyone is going to catch them. They’re also going to be a tough team to beat in the Round of 64 if they get that far

-Troy @ Arkansas State (Sun Belt) – one of many pivotal games in the logjammed Sun Belt

-Omaha @ Saint Thomas (Summit League) – these are the top two teams, although the storyline is somewhat skewed since Saint Thomas is not eligible for the NCAAs and since Omaha is coming off a loss

-South Carolina @ Florida (SEC) – I think Florida is good enough to end up as a #1 seed and they have been killing it lately. They should be able to hold serve at home

-Kansas @ Utah (Big 12) – Kansas hasn’t been the best road team, but this is one that they should be able to get

-Pepperdine @ Gonzaga (West Coast) – Gonzaga just had a nice win against San Francisco and should be able to hold serve tonight

-Washington State @ Saint Mary’s (West Coast) – I still think SMC is the best team in the WCC, and they should be able to take care of business and hold serve against a Wazzu team that’s been good at times, but not lately.

-San Francisco @ San Diego (West Coast) – San Francisco is outisde the bubble, but they still may have a chance to reach it so long as they finish strong. They absolutely need this one today, though

-UC Irvine @ Hawaii (Big West) – not the easiest road trip, but for UC Irvine to end the season inside the bubble and not needing to win the Big West Tournament in order to get a bid, they need to win out

-I am now officially very impressed and all in on the Maryland Terrapins. They picked up another really nice road win last night as they beat a Nebraska team who was squarely on the bubble and had a lot to play for themselves.

-San Francisco had seemingly played their way pretty close to the bubble and had a chance at a huge win at Gonzaga last night last night. They actually had a lead for much of the first half, but couldn’t hold on and the Zags ended up with an 88-77 win that they kind of needed themselves.

-A couple of top Under the Radar teams had close calls last night. Grand Canyon barely escaped at Tarleton State, but held on 64-60, and UC Irvine barely escaped at home against UC Santa Barbara 62-60.

-UCLA AT INDIANA (Big Ten). As much as I’ve been beating up on Indiana, they have been very competitive against some really good teams in many of their losses, and with a recent win at Michigan State they may actually still have a path (albeit a narrow one) to making the NCAA Tournament. UCLA had been on a roll and is still in very good shape, but is coming off a close loss at Illinois and looking to bounce back.

NEWS, NOTES, AND LINKS:

For the latest UNDER THE RADAR Video Podcast – CLICK HERE

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-For all the Hoops HD Team Sheets – CLICK HERE

-Saint John’s winning streak was finally snapped as they fell at Villanova yesterday 73-71. All four of the Johnnies’ losses this season have been by 3pts or less, and while Nova is nowhere near the bubble the loss won’t hurt them that badly.

A few teams had close calls last night

-Texas Tech had all kinds of trouble with Arizona State, but held on to win in overtime 111-106 sidestepping what wouldn’t have been a huge landmine, but it’s still a loss that would have set them back.

-Ole Miss also struggled last night against an inferior South Carolina team, but did manage the road win 72-68.

-New Mexico really struggled with Wyoming and avoided a loss that would have knocked them pretty far down the seedlist, but held on to win at home 71-67

-Wake Forest, who was squarely on the bubble and could not afford a home loss to a team that was nowhere near the field, lost last night to Florida State, who was nowhere near the field. Not only did they lose, but they lost stupidly. They threw up a halfcourt shot with 12 seocnds to go, and then waited to foul FSU after failing to make the shot and not getting the rebound. The final was 72-70.

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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-MARYLAND AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Maryland continues to string together wins, boost their metrics, and climb the seedlist. They’ve got another tough one tonight against a Nebraska team that has been playing really well lately, and who is right on the bubble, and who needs this one themselves.

-MEMPHIS AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American). Memphis is good enough to win out, and if they do they should be very close to a protected seed.

-UC SANTA BARBARA AT UC IRVINE (Big West). UC Irvine is coming off a rare loss, but if they can win out, which they are good enough to do, they will still be right on the bubble and I think they can still get in. They’re still one of the best defensive teams in the country.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT GONZAGA (West Coast). This is a hugely important game. Gonzaga is trying to improve their profile and climb the seedlist, whereas San Francisco is squarely on the bubble and a win like this would likely put them inside of it.