NEWS AND NOTES:
-There have been lots of time changes and postponements due to the winter storms expected to hit various parts of the country today. We have named it Winter Storm Rocco, and our good friend Rocco Miller is tracking all the changes on his X ACCOUNT
-Saint Louis absolutely blew Saint Bonaventure off of their own floor 97-62. This really isn’t a great profile win, but it was a very impressive road win against a team that’s not easy to beat on the road.
-Utah State had to come from behind at UNLV, but escaped 65-61 to avoid what would have been a damaging loss.
-Ohio State stayed with Michigan for about 30 minutes before Michigan got control and won 74-62.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-NORTH CAROLINA AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Both teams are in the rankings, but Virginia looks to be the superior team and is starting to look like they could end up as a protected seed. North Carolina has struggled on the road and is just 1-3 in true road games. This would easily be their most impressive win of the year if they’re somehow able to pull off the upset.
-VILLANOVA AT CONNECTICUT (Big East). Villanova is having a good year and looks like they can land in the top half of the bracket. Having said that, UConn is having another amazing year and looks like they can land on the #1 line. UConn should be favored at home, but it will be interesting to see what Nova can do against a Final Four caliber team in a true road game.
-GEORGIA AT TEXAS (SEC). Georgia is coming off a big road win at Missouri, is solidly in the rankings, and is showing that they belong there. They’ll face another tough road test today against a Texas team that appears to be getting better, but who still has a lot of work to do and who could really use this win today.
-HOUSTON AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). It’s seemingly always wild when these two play each other. Houston held on to win the first meeting and will face what should be their toughest test of the year so far. Texas Tech is getting better as the season progresses. They’ve won 8 of their last 9 and have a win against Duke in that stretch, and the only loss was that close road loss at Hosuton, so these are two top level teams squaring off in what should be a great game.
-MIAMI FL AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Miami is squarely on our bubble, but we have them on the right side of it. Syracuse is outside our bubble, but we have them within reach of it. Both teams could really use this one.
-VIRGINIA TECH AT LOUISVLLE (ACC). Virginia Tech is a bubble team that we at Hoops HD have argued over. Well, if they can figure out a way to win this one, we will no longer be arguing. They’ll be safely inside the bubble. Louisville hasn’t been quite as good as we expected this year, but they still appear to be solidly in the top half of the bracket and are not easy to beat at home.
-SAINT JOHN’S AT XAVIER (Big East). It’s the Pitino Shootout!!! The Johnnies are getting better as the season goes along (although they were a little sluggish in their last game). Xavier also seems to be getting better, but they’ve gone from looking like a team that would land outside the top 200 to perhaps being an NIT team, whereas the Johnnies are building up their resume to get a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament. It should be a fun one today!
-ILLINOIS AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Both teams are high in the rankings and both are competing for protected seeds. This is the kind of win that can help solidify a team as a protected seed, so it’s a good opportunity at a showcase win for both of them. Illinois is a perfect 4-0 on the road, but none of those came against a team that’s on the level that Purdue is on, so it would be their best win of the year if they can somehow pull it off.
-IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12). Oklahoma State is slipping further and further away from the bubble. Today’s game seems pivotal. A win could really turn things around for them whereas a loss knocks them down to just 2-5 in Big 12 play. Iowa State just snapped a two game losing streak with a blowout win against UCF, so they are coming into this one with a lot of momentum.
-AUBURN AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida is playing as well as anyone in the country and will likely end up with a solid protected seed by the end of the year. Auburn needs some big wins just to get themselves safely inside the bubble. Today is a big opportunity, but it’s far easier said than done.
-TCU AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Both of these teams are going in the complete wrong direction and are running the risk of falling outside the bubble entirely. TCU is just 2-4 in conference play and just snapped a four game losing streak. Baylor is just 1-5 in league play and needs to start stringing together wins.
-CALIFORNIA AT STANFORD (ACC). This is just a classic ACC rivalry game!!! Uhh…well…I guess it is now. Both teams are on the bubble, both have work to do, and both could really use this win. This game is pivotal on paper and important for bragging rights off paper.
-TENNESSEE AT ALABAMA (SEC). Tennessee has been really sluggish on the road and is still looking for their first true road win. They’re going to need a few if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. This one will not be easy to get seeing as how Alabama is good enough to end up with a protected seed.
-LSU @ ARKANSAS (SEC). LSU is outside the bubble, but a win like this could really slingshot them forward. Arkansas is safe, but still has room to build up their profile.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Ole Miss @ Kentucky (SEC) – Ole Miss has been playing better, but still has a lot of work to do. Kentucky has been playing a lot better and should be able to hold serve in this one
-Wake Forest @ Duke (ACC) – Duke is in the hunt for a #1 seed so they basically need to win every game in order to get it
-Nebraska @ Minnesota (Big Ten) – It’s never easy to win on the road, but Nebraska has been doing it all season long and should be able to do it again today
-Maryland @ Michigan State (Big Ten) – Michigan State shouldn’t have too much trouble with the Terps at home. Maryland has really struggled this season
-Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State (SEC) – After a 16-0 start Vandy has lost three straight. They should be able to get this one on the road today, but like I always say, winning anywhere on the road is tough
-Clemson @ Georgia Tech (ACC) – Clemson is coming off a loss to NC State and is looking to bounce back. They should be able to get this one even though it’s a road game
-NC State @ Pittsburgh (ACC) – If NC State is going to land inside the bubble they need to string together wins and can’t afford a loss to a team as weak as Pitt even if it is on the road
-Illinois State @ Belmont (Missouri Valley) – these are two of the better teams in the MVC and I still think the committee should take a serious look at Belmont if they keep winning at the clip they have been
-Vermont @ Bryant (America East) – Vermont is still battling for a first place finish in the AEast
-South Carolina @ Texas A&M (SEC) – TAMU has been playing really well and should be able to hold serve in this one at home. This would make them 9-1 in their last ten games
-Delaware @ Liberty (Conference USA) – Liberty should be able to remain unbeaten in conference play and stands a very good chance of landing inside the bubble if they can run the table
-Army @ Navy (Patriot League) – Navy is at home against a big rival and looking to stay on top of the PL standings
-West Virignia @ Arizona (Big 12) – Arizona is the top ranked team and shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one, but after a sluggish start West Virginia has won four of their last five and could really make some noise with an upset today
-George Mason @ Rhode Island (Atlantic 10) – George Mason has a great overall record that was amassed against a very weak schedule, so their margin for error is very thin and they can’t afford to lose this one
-Winthrop @ Presbyterian (Big South) – Winthrop is in a race with High Point for the top of the Big South
-Saint Thomas @ South Dakota (Summit League) – Saint Thomas is trying to keep pace with North Dakota State in the Summit standings and has a test on the road today
-Yale @ Penn (Ivy League) – Yale has an outside shot at landing inside the bubble if they can win out
-Oklahoma @ Missouri (SEC) – Mizzou is playing better and better and can continue to climb the seedlist. They need to hold serve in this one
-UNC Wilmington @ Hampton (CAA) – UNCW is looking to rebound from their first conference loss
-Queens @ West Georgia (Atlantic Sun) – Queens looking to remain unbeaten in ASun play
-UCF @ Colorado (Big 12) – UCF will make the field if they hold serve, and this is the kind of road game that they should be able to win
-Saint Peter’s @ Merrimack (Metro Atlantic) – Saint Peter’s is suddenly atop the MAAC standings, but they’re on the road against one of the best teams in the conference today. Merrimack can pull even with them in the standings with a win
-Troy @ Georgia Southern (Sun Belt) – Troy is coming off yet another overtime win and is looking to remain atop the SBC standings
-Murray State @ Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley) – Murray State is locked in a race with Belmont and will likely get a serious look from the committee if they can win out. Today’s game will be tough, though
-Jackson State @ Bethune Cookman (SWAC) – these are two of the better teams in the SWAC with each having just one conference loss
-San Diego State @ UNLV (Mountain West) – San Diego State is on a roll and should win this one, but UNLV has also come on strong recently with wins in six of their last eight games, so SDSU better not overlook them
-Florida State @ SMU (ACC) – SMU should hold serve at home
-Tulsa @ Rice (American) – Tulsa was in a bit of a tailspin, but has turned things around with decisive wins in their last three games and should be able to pick this one up today
-Seton Hall @ DePaul (Big East) – this game suddenly has a bit of appeal to it given that DePaul is playing a little better and Seton Hall is fighting to stay inside the bubble and can always use a conference road win
-New Orleans @ McNeese (Southland) – McNeese is suddenly in a position to where they are chasing Stephen F Austin and will likely need to win out to keep pace with them
Portland State @ Idaho (Big Sky) – Portland State looking to remain perfect in conference play
-Utah @ BYU (Mountain West) – this is a bitter rivalry and you never want to disregard the role that can play, but BYU won the first meeting on the road, is clearly the superior team, and should hold serve at home
-Dayton @ Saint Joseph’s (Atlantic 10) – Dayton is coming off a loss to La Salle and if they want to keep pace with Saint Louis and George Mason they basically can’t afford any more losses
-Northwestern @ UCLA (Big Ten) – UCLA just picked up a massive win against Purdue earlier in the week which may have turned their season around. They need to hold serve in this one today
-Grand Canyon @ Fresno State (Mountain West) – after a bit of a slow start to the season, GCU has picked things up and are suddenly a contender in the MWC. They should be able to get this one on the road tonight
-San Francisco @ Gonzaga (West Coast) – The Zags shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one. They will remain solidly within range of a protected seed
-Kansas @ Kansas State (Big 12) – it’s a rivalry game and Kansas hasn’t always been the best road team this year, but this is one that they should be able to win
-Nevada @ New Mexico (Mountain West) – I think New Mexico should be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament, but in order to do it they can’t afford to stub their toes in games like this
-Saint Mary’s @ Portland (West Coast) – SMC is safely inside the bubble and will remain safe so long as they hold serve
-Santa Clara @ San Diego (West Coast) – I think Santa Clara can land inside the bubble, but they pretty much need to rampage through the rest of their schedule in order to do it
-UC Irvine @ UC San Diego (Big West) – these are two of the better teams in the Big West and this should be a fun one
-Cal State Northridge @ Hawaii (Big West) – Hawaii is one of the three teams that’s in the Big West race and they need to hold serve in this one
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Friday, January 23rd
As most of the country gets ready for Winter Storm Rocco (click here for updates to time changes for affected games), it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to prepare the staff bracket for Hoops HD this week. This is NOT like Jon Teitel or Rocco Miller’s bracket where they attempt to guess the Selection Committee; rather this is what Stalica feels the bracket should look like through games played last night.
And this is the bracket below:
First Four Out: Akron, Baylor, Indiana, LSU
Others Considered: Ohio State, Belmont, Oklahoma State, TCU
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– There is no question on the first four teams at the top of the bracket. I would give a slight edge to Duke over Michigan when you look at the quality of the Blue Devils’ wins. Nebraska is on the cusp of making the #1 line and probably vaults UConn if they are able to win their upcoming game at Michigan.
– The way the protected seeds played out, I did not have to do any reshuffling on account of BYU this week. Hence the regions being more balanced than what I would have expected.
– I thought I might have to justify Florida being a protected seed, but upon further review I would have the Gators as my top team in the SEC over Vandy. In this instance, Florida really asserted themselves with a road win at Vandy last week.
– Alabama is going to bear watching because of the return of Charles Bediako to the lineup. Despite being selected in the 2023 NBA Draft by the San Antonio Spurs, he has somehow managed to get a temporary restraining order to be allowed to play again for the Crimson Tide. (We’ll just conveniently overlook the fact that the judge in question has Alabama program ties) Personally, I would think that Alabama is at risk of having any contest he plays in ultimately being ruled a forfeit. And who’s to say that another judge with opposing school ties (i.e. Auburn or Tennessee) wouldn’t overrule the TRO? What a mess for the NCAA to deal with.
– The Miami Redhawks have clearly not been negatively impacted by the loss of Evan Ipsaro back in December. I say this because the Stanford Cardinal (currently on the 10-line as of today) are now going to have to deal with a season-ending injury to their leading scorer Chisom Okpara. They are now going to have to prove that they can still play at an NCAA Tournament level without Okpara. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt for now, but I doubt my colleagues will feel the same way initially.
– I nearly put the Akron Zips in my field. I gave George Mason the edge for now because of more Tier 2/Tier 3 wins, but teams like Akron and Belmont have shots at at-large bids for now since teams like Baylor, Indiana and LSU have too many fatal flaws at the moment to be included in this bracket.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS: Out of the 68 selections and seedings I think I can agree (or at least live with) about 64 of them, which means I like this bracket a lot more than I’ll like the committee’s actual bracket. I’m not big at all on Virginia Tech. I think they are certainly within reach of the bubble, but a team I like more than them is a team that Stalica has two lines out and that’s Belmont.
-I’m also not a fan of NC State’s profile. I know they had a nice win this week against Clemson, so but they still just don’t look that good overall and have missed chance after chance after chance.
-I think Duke on the #1 line makes sense. They’ve been on my #1 line for a while now.
-I think Akron may win the auto-bid out of the MAC. They are good. Miami is unbeaten and in the rankings and therefore in the spotlight, but they didn’t beat Akron by much. It was a close win at home and it’s Akron’s only MAC loss. Akron also blew out Buffalo at Buffalo, whereas Miami OH faced them at home and needed a miracle at the end of regulation just to get the game to overtime. The profile, and the ranking, and the unbeaten part of it makes sense. You have to select Miami ahead of Akron…but Akron is good! I think they’re better on the court than Stalica’s entire First Four (minus maybe UCLA who seems to be kicking it into gear). I think Belmont is as well!!
PUPPET’S AWARDED GRADE: B+. Not bad!!
COMMENTS FROM CHAD: