The Panel looks at the American Conference, and the rough week that Houston had with losses to SMU and Memphis, and whether or not Memphis can play their way back inside the bubble. In The Big 12 we discuss the likelihood of teams like Kansas State and Iowa State making the NCAA Tournament despite being very far below .500 in conference play, and how Kansas has a path to a #1 seed. In the SEC we discuss how Kentucky is red hot, and how they could end up with a #1 seed along with Auburn. Gonzaga has regained the #1 ranking, and Saint Mary’s and San Francisco are also playing really well while BYU is struggling. USC got a big win against UCLA in the Pac 12, and Oregon continues to hang around the bubble. We discuss all that, and more, as we touch on all ten major conferences.
And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
This week, it is time for staff member John Stalica to make his initial bracket projection of the season. This is not a guess at what the NCAA Selection Committee will do; that is the prerogative of members like Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller.
And without further ado, here is the bracket:
First Four Out – BYU, Oregon, SMU, VCU
Others Considered – Dayton, Virginia, Memphis, Michigan, Santa Clara, Belmont, Oklahoma, West Virginia
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– I’m not going to change the position of Auburn and Gonzaga based on the Tigers’ loss at Arkansas – there is more than enough good on the bone of Auburn to stay atop the overall bracket at this time. I am also becoming more and more of a believer in Kentucky as I currently have them as a #1 seed and #3 overall. They not only have wins at Kansas and Alabama along with a home win against Tennessee and a neutral-court win against North Carolina, the Wildcats are beating them into submission.
– We thought injuries might eventually catch up to Houston, but it’s not inconceivable that they would have been expected to have at least a couple of losses in the American at this point. Losing at SMU would have been forgivable, but losing at home to Memphis this year isn’t indicative of what a protected seed should do, especially with teams like Texas, Ohio State and Tennessee breathing down their necks.
– Wyoming has now cracked the Top 25 and have a seed consistent with such a ranking right now. They could potentially elevate their seed higher should they be able to win at arch-rival Colorado State in a week. Colorado State also had a big win at Boise State to help solidify their profile and people across the nation were partying last night!
– I know the Puppet loves to skewer North Carolina for their lack of Quad 1 wins (and deservedly so), but at some point I do have to at least reward them for winning all the games they’re supposed to be winning and not taking on any bad losses. Frankly, I’m getting more offended by Iowa’s resume and bloated NET – they still have no Quad 1 wins and actually have a pair of Quad 2 losses (and a loss at a fading Iowa State team).
– Don’t adjust your glasses, you read it correctly. Kansas State is in this field. Their overall record is barely passable, but then again so are Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Wildcats are actually 5-4 away from home and that includes wins at Texas, TCU and Iowa State among others. They’d be in even more fields had they beaten Kansas at home a couple weeks ago.
– And yes, I’m also on the Rutgers bandwagon after the Scarlet Knights have put together a 3-game winning streak against Top 25 foes. They took down Michigan State and Ohio State at The RAC and won for the first time at Wisconsin. The win against the Badgers gives Rutgers a 6-3 record against Quad 1 teams, yet they’re an atrocious 9-6 against Quads 2, 3 and 4. They should be dead on arrival, yet I can’t justify putting a team like Oregon (losing to Cal – really?) or BYU ahead of them anymore.
– On a humorous sidenote, both Purdue and Loyola-Chicago should be relieved that the NCAA moved the first and second-round games from Cincinnati down the road to Indianapolis after a deal to renovate Heritage Bank Center (formerly USBank Arena) failed to surface. Kentucky might have wished for Cincinnati instead upon seeing their potential 2nd-round opponent.
STAFF COMMENTS
From Chad:
– Although I firmly believe that Arizona belongs on the top seed line over Kentucky, I may be more offended by the choice of Auburn #1 overall rather than Gonzaga. The Zags have more Tier 1A wins, more Tier 1 wins away from home and are, quite frankly, a better team.
– Indiana is over-seeded on John’s 8 line. The Hoosiers have lost 3 in a row and don’t have any road wins of note. Further, they have a losing record vs Quad 1 (2-5) and Quads 1 and 2 combined (4-8). Beating Purdue at home can only prop a team up for so long — sooner or later this team needs a quality road win.
– Speaking of teams without quality wins, Wake Forest does not belong on the 9 line. Or the 10 line. Or the 11 line. Or the 12. Or the 13, 14, 15 or 16. They belong in the NIT. This team has no wins of note, and (unlike North Carolina) has two losses to teams that are nowhere near the Board.
– John has Creighton on the 11 line. Most bracketologists have them right near the cut-line right now. I don’t understand that. This team beat Villanova and won at UConn and Marquette. Those are three teams way above them, and 2 of those 3 wins were on the road. That easily makes up for a bad home loss to Arizona State. I would have them on the 9 line, at least.
– Kansas State is a dangerous team to play, but they do not belong in right now. The wins are amazing, but 13-11 overall has to count for something. The Wildcats belong “on the board”, but they better beat West Virginia tonight if they want to be seriously considered.
– Why is Toledo on the 12 line and a First Four game in the 13 line? Toledo is a good team, and very dangerous, but they do not have the profile to be ranked above at-large teams. (Note from John – I forgot to note I had to do a swap between the play-in game and Toledo – the Rockets would nominally have been my top 13-seed)
– Saint Louis in the field is an awful pick. They won at Boise State but have two bad losses. Their only other win against the field is an Iona team at home that counts as Tier 3 right now. The Billikens are about 10-12 teams out on my board.
– Rutgers — I am an RU grad and I love the Quad 1 wins. I want them in. I actually had them as my top team out this morning. But, I will take John’s argument on my Scarlet Knights.
– Where is Belmont in this field? If you want a team that is not from a power conference (Saint Louis) as your last team in, take the Bruins!!!
– I would have BYU and Oklahoma in as well, though there are strong cases against each (though not as much of one against BYU). Oregon, SMU, Virginia, Michigan and Memphis are all close too.
– In sum, John did a decent job, but he quite honestly lost almost all merit when he got to his final teams in and put K State and Saint Louis in the field. There are so many better choices. However, because he put Rutgers in, I grade him an A+.
FROM DAVID:
-I agree that Rutgers belongs in the field, and should perhaps even be inside the First Four. I don’t know if the real committee would put them in or not, but they should. They’ve got some warts, but they have more good on their resume than several teams that are likely to go in on the first ballot.
-I don’t understand why anyone thinks Wake or North Carolina are any good. I just think the rest of the world has gone crazy.
-I’m not crazy about the Kansas State pick either, but they make more sense than Wake and UNC. The problem is that Stalica took all three.
-On this day in the year 270, which was 1752 years ago, Emperor Claudius II had Valentine’s head cut off for disobeying him. Such a lovely story!! Happy Valentines Day!!
NEWS AND NOTES:
-Purdue had to sweat out a substandard Maryland team at home, but held on to win 62-61 in a game that had a bit of a crazy finish. Illinois and Connecticut also had to sweat out substandard opponents, but both held on to win.
-UAB is a really good team when they’re not playing on Sundays. They have almost no shot at an at-large bid after losing at Old Dominion 81-72. Their shot of getting one before this loss was very very small, but it is pretty much nonexistent now.
-Colorado State picked up their biggest win of the year as they knocked of Boise State on the road 77-74. It was an overtime thriller, it was perhaps the best I’ve seen the Rams play all season, and it adds a HUGE quality win to a resume that was kind of flimsy when it came to big wins.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-SAINT LOUIS AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten). SLU still has a path to landing inside the bubble if they can finish strong. This would be a really nice road win for them if they’re able to pull it off.
-DUQUESNE AT DAVIDSON (Atlantic Ten). Davidson is still in good shape for a bid despite coming off a loss. They need to hold serve in games like this in order to stay that way, though.
-WEST VIRGINIA AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12). Both of these teams are on life support, but it still isn’t impossible for either of them to make the field. They need a very strong finish, but it can be done.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS (Big 12). Kansas looks like they’ll end up on one of the top two lines and shouldn’t have too much trouble at home tonight.
-WASHINGTON STATE AT OREGON (Pac 12). Both teams need this one badly. Both are coming off losses. In the case of Wazzu they need some big wins just to get into the discussion, and in the case of Oregon they need to finish strong and avoid losses to teams that are outside the bubble just to stay inside of it themselves.
-GEORGETOWN AT CREIGHTON (Big East). Creighton needs to have a sense of urgency. I think they’re relatively safe (at least, I think) but if they lose a game like this they won’t be.
HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel will spend the upcoming weeks covering some Georgetown basketball home games, with (hopefully) a very special reward coming in March. Part 7 was published last month: https://hoopshd.com/2022/02/02/hanging-with-the-hoyas-part-7-2 He continues his series with Part 8 featuring the Hoyas’ matchup yesterday against Creighton:
Not the most filling/nutritious pregame meal to start the day but biscuits with bacon/chicken/sausage and fruit from Chick-fil-A were certainly tasty. A noon EDT start on an unseasonably warm Saturday morning for a home team that has lost 12 in a row = plenty of good seats available:
Let’s tip it off:
As you might imagine, Georgetown coach Patrick Ewing has been frustrated at his team for almost 2 months due to their long losing streak, but at least there was a glimmer of hope after he learned that Creighton freshman Arthur Kaluma would be sitting this 1 out due to a right knee injury:
1 of the feature matchups was a pair of really big Ryans as 7’1” Ryan Kalkbrenner battled 7’2” Ryan Mutombo for post position all day long. Kalkbrenner had the early advantage by getting free in the paint for multiple alleyoop dunks but Mutombo responded with a jumper in the lane and a lefty hook during his 1st career start. I have seen his father at multiple home games this year, and even the occasional road game on TV, but there was no sign of him this weekend. To put it in historical perspective, the last time a Mutombo had started for the Hoyas was more than 3 decades ago on 3/17/91, when Dikembe had 16 PTS/9 REB/3 BLK in an 8-PT loss to an undefeated UNLV squad in the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney:
As if we did not have enough Ryans already, Creighton trotted out not 1 but TWO more in the starting lineup. 1 is SR Ryan Hawkins, who has a fascinating basketball backstory: he spent the past several years as a player at Northwest Missouri State, where he won a trio of D-2 titles and now has 173 wins in 189 games during the past 6 years. On the other side of the experience spectrum is FR Ryan Nembhard, who is leading the team in AST as a freshman…yet is not even the best college player in his own family this year, as his older brother Andrew runs the point at Gonzaga and is looking like a sure bet to receive a #1 seed next month. Hawkins was great in the 1st half while tying his season-high with 5 threes, but Nembhard exhibited his versatility with a 3 from the top of the key as well as a nice drive/layup:
Georgetown was able to keep it close with an inside/outside combination of their own. FR Aminu Mohammed (left) kept getting to the rim for several layups, while SR Kaiden Rice (right) showed off his shooting stroke with a pair of pull-up jumpers and a pair of threes:
The Blue Jays were only up 42-37 at halftime, which left the crowd wondering if today was the day that the losing streak would be snapped. Kalkbrenner kept owning the paint in the 2nd half with an assortment of layups/alleyoop dunks/baby hooks and had the best game of his career with 22 PTS/15 REB/2 BLK:
SR Keyshawn Feazell did next to nothing in the 1st 20 minutes but saved his best for the last half with a 3 from the top of the key and a pair of alleyoop dunks to finish with an efficient 8 PTS in 8 minutes:
Hoyas PG Dante Harris had a rough afternoon on offense with 5 turnovers and only 5-16 FG but was solid in a couple of other areas with team-highs of 5 AST/3 STL:
SR Donald Carey demonstrated the entire arsenal in the 2nd stanza, banking in a 3 from the top of the key, then converting a runner in the lane, and wrapping up with an old fashioned 3-PT play en route to a team-high-tying 16 PTS/0 TO:
Hawkins did not stop shooting from long range…which was a good idea because he did not stop making them either. He ended up tying his career-high by making a whopping 8 shots from behind the arc: in comparison, the entire Hoyas team only made 6-24. Creighton won 80-66 and Hawkins’ stat line made him a strong candidate for Big East player of the week: a season-high 30 PTS/6 AST while also grabbing 12 REB and only turning the ball over once:
That is a wrap for a couple of weeks while the Hoyas embark on a 3-game road trip. I will be out of town for their final regular season home game vs. UConn on 2/27, but check back later this month to see if I can make it to the DePaul game on 2/24.
We are only 4 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams that made the 2021 tourney, 62 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 47 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 13th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 19th out of 135 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com
-At some point yesterday I thought we were going to tab the day as ‘Setback Saturday.’ A lot of teams that needed good things to happen did not have good things happen.
-Houston, who had looked like a Final Four team a week ago, followed up their upset loss to SMU (which was a little surprising but also understandable) with a 69-59 home loss to Memphis yesterday (which made no sense at all). The Cougars are in no danger of missing the field, and will probably still end up as a protected seed, but it was a heads-scratching setback.
-Wisconsin, who I thought was building the kind of resume that could even get them in a discussion for a #1 seed had they been able to finish strong, did not look strong at all yesterday. They lost at home to Rutgers 73-65. Rutgers is a team with one of the more interesting resumes I’ve ever seen. The good is outstanding (including, but not limited to the win at Wisky yesterday), but the bad is atrocious. Still, they are going to get a serious look from the committee if they can finish strong.
-Marquette, who was showing all the signs of being a solid protected seed, went on the road to Butler and lost. I’m still at a loss as to how that happened.
-West Virginia appeared to have things turned around and appeared to have a winnable road game at Oklahoma State to keep the momentum shift going. They were blown off the floor 81-58. The Mountaineer’s NCAA Tournament hopes are on life support.
-Iowa State was just 3-8 in Big 12 play, but their schedule had been extremely front-loaded, and what was left of it was far more manageable. Yesterday they had Kansas State at home. That’s a winnable game, and a chance for them to start stringing together some Big 12 wins. They lost 75-69. They are also on life support.
-Oregon appeared to be playing well and climbing the seedlist. They lost at home to Cal yesterday 78-64, and at no point were they really ever in the game.
-New Mexico State was a team that I thought could sneak onto the bubble. They went to Utah Valley and lost 72-68.
-Washington State, who we thought might at least get onto the board because of their high NET, and with a strong finish had an outside shot at making the field, lost at home to Arizona State 58-55.
We could have also tabbed it ‘Close-Call Saturday.’
-Kansas trailed to an Oklahoma team that is barely in the bubble for much of the game, but held on to win 71-69. This win would have been a gold strike for Oklahoma had they been able to pull it off, but instead they will continue to hover around the bubble for now.
-Providence was at home against DePaul and needed overtime to squeak by the Blue Demons 76-73. I think they are trying to set some sort of record for most wins every by 5pts or less.
-Villanova trialed Seton Hall at home for much of the game, but held on for a 73-67 win.
-LSU, who had been in a tailspin, had to sweat out Mississippi State at home yesterday. Mississippi State hasn’t won on the road all year, and the Tigers barely escaped 69-65.
-BYU barely avoided a disastrous loss (again) as they held on to beat Pepperdine 91-85.
There was some normalcy yesterday as well…
-Baylor has bounced back and pretty much dominated Texas yesterday in their 80-63 win.
-USC, who had been severely lacking in notable wins, picked one up yesterday as they knocked off rival UCLA 67-64. They pretty much had a lead for the entire way, but almost gave it away in the final seconds when a turnover gave UCLA a chance to hit what would have been a game-tying shot at the buzzer.
-Murray State, who just cracked the rankings, trailed at Morehead for about 38 minutes and had a rough night offensively, but managed to hold on and win 57-53.
-Alabama and Arkansas was a battle with Alabama getting the win at home 68-67. It was still an impressive showing for an Arkansas team that is much better now than they were at the start of conference play. They got a big home win against Auburn and then went into Tuscaloosa and took Alabama to the wire.
-Miami FL picked up a really nice road win against Wake Forest 76-72. We have Wake hovering around our bubble, and a win yesterday would have really helped. We had Miami FL a little bit further inside the bubble, but only a little. This win is a big deal for them.
-San Francisco, who’s resume was looking a little flimsy when it comes to notable wins, got a huge one at Santa Clara yesterday 80-66. Not only does this really help them out on paper, the Dons looked really good on the court as well.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-UCONN AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). UConn is looking to bounce back after a loss at Xavier, and has what should be a winnable road game at Saint John’s today. I still think UConn has a shot at a protected seed if they can finish strong.
-MARYLAND AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Purdue was blasted into the sun in their last game against Michigan. This is a good bounce back game for them against a team they should win against rather easily at home.
-MONMOUTH AT IONA (Metro Atlantic). Iona will be on the board and in serious contention for a bid if they win out, but even that may not be enough. Still, they have to win out to give themselves that chance.
-NORTHWESTERN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Illinois is very tough to beat at home and they should be able to win this one without having to sweat too much.
-UAB AT OLD DOMINION (Conference USA). UAB has a shot at landing on the bubble if they can win out. Anything short of that and they’ll need the auto-bid, and even if they do win out that still may not be enough.
-NEBRASKA AT IOWA (Big Ten). Iowa appears to be inside the bubble and should be able to hold serve in this one without too much trouble.
-COLORADO STATE A BOISE STATE (Mountain West). This is a huge game between a Boise State team that looks good enough to easily go in on the first ballot and end up in the top half of the bracket, and a Colorado State that’s inside the bubble, but could be much safer if they can win a game like this.
-NORTHERN IOWA AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Missouri Valley). Loyola Chicago is running out of strikes. They still have a path to land inside the bubble and make the field without winning the conference tournament, but they’ll probably need to win out through the regular season to ensure that happens.
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Monday, February 14
This week, it is time for staff member John Stalica to make his initial bracket projection of the season. This is not a guess at what the NCAA Selection Committee will do; that is the prerogative of members like Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller.
And without further ado, here is the bracket:
First Four Out – BYU, Oregon, SMU, VCU
Others Considered – Dayton, Virginia, Memphis, Michigan, Santa Clara, Belmont, Oklahoma, West Virginia
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– I’m not going to change the position of Auburn and Gonzaga based on the Tigers’ loss at Arkansas – there is more than enough good on the bone of Auburn to stay atop the overall bracket at this time. I am also becoming more and more of a believer in Kentucky as I currently have them as a #1 seed and #3 overall. They not only have wins at Kansas and Alabama along with a home win against Tennessee and a neutral-court win against North Carolina, the Wildcats are beating them into submission.
– We thought injuries might eventually catch up to Houston, but it’s not inconceivable that they would have been expected to have at least a couple of losses in the American at this point. Losing at SMU would have been forgivable, but losing at home to Memphis this year isn’t indicative of what a protected seed should do, especially with teams like Texas, Ohio State and Tennessee breathing down their necks.
– Wyoming has now cracked the Top 25 and have a seed consistent with such a ranking right now. They could potentially elevate their seed higher should they be able to win at arch-rival Colorado State in a week. Colorado State also had a big win at Boise State to help solidify their profile and people across the nation were partying last night!
– I know the Puppet loves to skewer North Carolina for their lack of Quad 1 wins (and deservedly so), but at some point I do have to at least reward them for winning all the games they’re supposed to be winning and not taking on any bad losses. Frankly, I’m getting more offended by Iowa’s resume and bloated NET – they still have no Quad 1 wins and actually have a pair of Quad 2 losses (and a loss at a fading Iowa State team).
– Don’t adjust your glasses, you read it correctly. Kansas State is in this field. Their overall record is barely passable, but then again so are Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Wildcats are actually 5-4 away from home and that includes wins at Texas, TCU and Iowa State among others. They’d be in even more fields had they beaten Kansas at home a couple weeks ago.
– And yes, I’m also on the Rutgers bandwagon after the Scarlet Knights have put together a 3-game winning streak against Top 25 foes. They took down Michigan State and Ohio State at The RAC and won for the first time at Wisconsin. The win against the Badgers gives Rutgers a 6-3 record against Quad 1 teams, yet they’re an atrocious 9-6 against Quads 2, 3 and 4. They should be dead on arrival, yet I can’t justify putting a team like Oregon (losing to Cal – really?) or BYU ahead of them anymore.
– On a humorous sidenote, both Purdue and Loyola-Chicago should be relieved that the NCAA moved the first and second-round games from Cincinnati down the road to Indianapolis after a deal to renovate Heritage Bank Center (formerly USBank Arena) failed to surface. Kentucky might have wished for Cincinnati instead upon seeing their potential 2nd-round opponent.
STAFF COMMENTS
From Chad:
– Although I firmly believe that Arizona belongs on the top seed line over Kentucky, I may be more offended by the choice of Auburn #1 overall rather than Gonzaga. The Zags have more Tier 1A wins, more Tier 1 wins away from home and are, quite frankly, a better team.
– Indiana is over-seeded on John’s 8 line. The Hoosiers have lost 3 in a row and don’t have any road wins of note. Further, they have a losing record vs Quad 1 (2-5) and Quads 1 and 2 combined (4-8). Beating Purdue at home can only prop a team up for so long — sooner or later this team needs a quality road win.
– Speaking of teams without quality wins, Wake Forest does not belong on the 9 line. Or the 10 line. Or the 11 line. Or the 12. Or the 13, 14, 15 or 16. They belong in the NIT. This team has no wins of note, and (unlike North Carolina) has two losses to teams that are nowhere near the Board.
– John has Creighton on the 11 line. Most bracketologists have them right near the cut-line right now. I don’t understand that. This team beat Villanova and won at UConn and Marquette. Those are three teams way above them, and 2 of those 3 wins were on the road. That easily makes up for a bad home loss to Arizona State. I would have them on the 9 line, at least.
– Kansas State is a dangerous team to play, but they do not belong in right now. The wins are amazing, but 13-11 overall has to count for something. The Wildcats belong “on the board”, but they better beat West Virginia tonight if they want to be seriously considered.
– Why is Toledo on the 12 line and a First Four game in the 13 line? Toledo is a good team, and very dangerous, but they do not have the profile to be ranked above at-large teams. (Note from John – I forgot to note I had to do a swap between the play-in game and Toledo – the Rockets would nominally have been my top 13-seed)
– Saint Louis in the field is an awful pick. They won at Boise State but have two bad losses. Their only other win against the field is an Iona team at home that counts as Tier 3 right now. The Billikens are about 10-12 teams out on my board.
– Rutgers — I am an RU grad and I love the Quad 1 wins. I want them in. I actually had them as my top team out this morning. But, I will take John’s argument on my Scarlet Knights.
– Where is Belmont in this field? If you want a team that is not from a power conference (Saint Louis) as your last team in, take the Bruins!!!
– I would have BYU and Oklahoma in as well, though there are strong cases against each (though not as much of one against BYU). Oregon, SMU, Virginia, Michigan and Memphis are all close too.
– In sum, John did a decent job, but he quite honestly lost almost all merit when he got to his final teams in and put K State and Saint Louis in the field. There are so many better choices. However, because he put Rutgers in, I grade him an A+.
FROM DAVID:
-I agree that Rutgers belongs in the field, and should perhaps even be inside the First Four. I don’t know if the real committee would put them in or not, but they should. They’ve got some warts, but they have more good on their resume than several teams that are likely to go in on the first ballot.
-I don’t understand why anyone thinks Wake or North Carolina are any good. I just think the rest of the world has gone crazy.
-I’m not crazy about the Kansas State pick either, but they make more sense than Wake and UNC. The problem is that Stalica took all three.