Hoops HD

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Illinois held off Wisconsin at home, which wasn’t that big of a surprise.  I still think Wisky is the better team, but not by much, and certainly not by enough to where you’d expect them to win most of the time at Illinois.

-Marquette bounced back from their close loss to Providence with a home win over Villanova.  Marquette is playing extremely well, but the other thing this game makes you question is just how good is Providence??  Providence had some big OOC wins, but many are quick to point out (as they should be) that a lot of those wins came against teams that weren’t at full strength.  Well…now we need to point out that Providence is in Big East play, and is continuing to win.  The Friars are good.

-Florida got a much bigger scare at Missouri than what they were expecting, but held on to win 66-65.  It isn’t so much a good win as it was nearly a very bad loss.

-Notre Dame got what was perhaps their biggest win of the season as they went on the road and won at Miami Fl 68-64,  The Canes had been looking real good, and appeared to be moving safely inside the bubble, so this is a big win for the Irish, especially after such a poor showing against Duke over the weekend.

-Florida State has gone back into a tailspin.  They lost yet another game to a non-tournament team as Clemson knocked them off 75-69.

-Dayton, who has been up and down all season, was way up yesterday.  They blew out (an albeit shorthanded) VCU team on the road 82-52.  One never knows what Dayton is going to do.  Every time I’m ready to say they’re dangerous, they lose a real head-scratcher.  Every time I’m ready to write them off, they win a big game and look fantastic doing it.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-the midwestern part of the country is expecting severe winter weather tonight, so some notable games have been postponed, particularly Iowa at Ohio State.  Please stay warm and stay safe if you are in that part of the country!

-MURRAY STATE AT AUSTIN PEAY (Ohio Valley).  Murray State is inside our bubble and inching closer and closer to the Top 25.  They will make the field so long as they continue to dominate thee OVC.

-UCLA AT ARIZONA (Pac 12).  Both teams are solid protected seeds, and it’s still possible for them to end up as #1 seeds.  UCLA would need a big road win like this one in order to make that case, though.  They won the first meeting between these two, but that was at home.

-GONZAGA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast).  This is only the second true road game of the season for Gonzaga, so while it is extremely winnable it also (at least in my mind) is important because they need a few more true road wins on their resume.

-BOISE STATE AT WYOMING (Mountain West).  UCLA vs Arizona is the biggest showcase of the day, but I think this is the biggest GAME of the day.  Both have solid tournament resumes, and Boise’s is looking better and better as the season goes on.  Wyoming is still hovering around the bubble, and a win like this would add some much needed sparkle to it.  A win for Boise puts them (at least in my mind) into the discussion for getting in on the first ballot.  I already like them more than Colorado State based on their overall body of work and how well they’ve been playing.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT STANFORD (Pac 12).  Stanford remains outside our bubble, but close enough to where they can reach it if they keep stringing together wins.  They need this one at home against a Wazzu team that’s been a little disappointing this year, but is still capable of playing well.

-OREGON AT COLORADO (Pac 12).  Oregon goes through spells where they look really good and I’m ready to get on their bandwagon, but then they follow that up by losing a game you feel they have no business losing.  They need this one.  Colorado isn’t a team that’s likely to make the field, but that’s precisely the point.  It’s a game they need to be able to win.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT BYU (West Coast).  The Dons need a signature win.  They really don’t have one yet.  They need a win like this to help shore up their NCAA Tournament resume.  BYU also needs this win because while they’re safe for now, they are in a bit of a tailspin and if they don’t pull themselves out of it they could end up missing The Dance.

-USC AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac 12).  This should be a winnable game for USC and keep them safely in the top half of the bracket.

-SAINT MARY’S AT PORTLAND (West Coast).  SMC should be able to hold serve on the road and pick up this win.

UNDER THE RADAR:

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We normally don’t do this with the daily write-up, but…

-MONTANA AT WEBER STATE (Big Sky).  Fun game in the Big Sky with first place implications.  If Weber wins, they have a two game lead over Montana long with the tiebreaker.  If Montana wins, the two are dead even in the standings.

-SEATTLE U AT GRAND CANYON (WAC).  Seattle has been one of the bigger surprises of the year, and are now sitting undefeated and in first place in the WAC.  This is their biggest test of the year in league play, though.  If they win this, they can finish in first.

NEWS AND NOTES:

-It was a great night of hate!!  For the 9pm est slate of games we had Chris Beard’s return to Texas Tech where the Red Raider fans were (not) waiting to great him with open arms and show their appreciation for all he’d done, as well as Alabama visiting Auburn.

Starting with Auburn, they opened up a big lead and Alabama actually cut into it, but in the latter stages of the game Auburn blew it open again.  The other night on the Hoops HD Report I had mentioned that I thought Alabama was shooting at the moon in this one, and everyone else disagreed.  While they disagreed with my choice of words, I don’t think they disagreed with the point I was trying to make.  Teams that go to Final Fours and win National Championships oftentimes do not have a true road win against a top five team during the regular season.  It’s damn hard to win at Auburn.  No one, not even a protected seeded caliber team, would be EXPECTED to win there.  Alabama has a great resume.  They’ve beaten Gonzaga in Seattle, and Baylor and Houston at home.  They could use a few more true road wins, and they are certainly good enough to pick those up between now and the end, but I wouldn’t look at the game at Auburn and think “hmmm…that’s a game the Tide should win!”  It isn’t, and they didn’t.

As for Texas, they had been playing better, but they still didn’t look to be as good as Texas Tech, much less good enough to beat Texas Tech on the road.  So, it wasn’t really that much of a surprise that the Red Raiders pretty much controlled the game from tip to buzzer.

-Michigan State escaped from Maryland with a tip in at the buzzer for a 65-63 win.  They had to sweat a lot more than expected in this one.

-Creighton had been in a bit of a tailspin, especially after completely blowing it in the second half against Xavier, but they went on the road to UConn last night and picked up a very impressive and very much needed 59-55 win.  It is a bit of a setback for UConn, but not a significant one.  They’re still very safely in the top half of the bracket, and still have a path to a protected seed if they can finish strong.

-Ole Miss, who doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to the bubble, won at LSU yesterday.  LSU is a team we were all big on, but I’m less big on them now.  They’ve lost five of their last six, and the loss last night was at home to a non-tournament caliber team.

-Davidson bounced back after looking kind of sluggish in their last few games with an impressive win at Saint Bonaventure.  The Bonnies made a run late to make the score look close, but Davidson appeared to be in control for pretty much the entire game.  Our friend and colleague Bracket Miller from Rocketeer.Org was on hand for the action!

-If you want to see some really awful officiating and an absolutely enraged group of fans, check out the final minute of overtime between North Carolina and Louisville!!  It was comical.  There was a tie-up situation at a key moment in the game where both players were going for the ball, and understandably REALLY going for it!  The momentum of the play sent a player from Louisville to the floor, which prompted another Louisville player to shove (if it even qualified as a shove) the Louisville player.  A flagrant foul was called.  It was a poor decision to call it (IMHO), but you could at least understand the thought process in doing so.  What the refs did next there was no thought process whatsoever.  It was one of the worst foul calls I’ve ever seen.  But, all that aside, North Carolina went on the road and won a game that was not easy to win, which is something that their resume very much needed.  It was arguably their best win of the year on paper.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-FLORIDA AT MISSOURI (SEC).  The Gators are straddling the bubble and are on the road against a weak Mizzou team.  They need to hold serve in this one.

-PURDUE AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten).  Purdue looks to be a solid protected seed who could even end up as high as a #1 seed with a strong finish.  Minnesota is a team that’s played well at times, but is still outside the bubble.  It’s not easy to win there, though.

-VANDERBILT AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Kentucky is looking as good as anyone in the country right now and should roll at home.

-BUTLER AT XAVIER (Big East).  There aren’t that many easy games in the Big East, but a home game against a struggling Butler team is about as easy as it’s gonna get.  Xavier is in very good shape, especially after their road win at Creighton.

-NOTRE DAME AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Notre Dame had strung together several wins, but kind of crapped the bed against Duke in their last game.  It wasn’t so much that they lost to Duke, but rather how bad they looked in that game.  I like Miami’s team and resume and think they will make the field, so this is another chance for the Irish to pull off a quality win.

-PITTSBURGH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Wake is right on a lot of people’s bubbles, so this is obviously a game where they need to hold serve.

-FLORIDA STATE AT CLEMSON (ACC).  After an impressive stretch where Florida State won six in a row, they’ve now dropped two straight to teams that aren’t being projected into the field.  They need to avoid dropping a third one tonight.

-ARKANSAS AT GEORGIA (SEC).  After a really nasty stretch over a month period in December/early January, Arkansas has really been playing well.  They’ve won six in a row, gotten themselves back inside the bubble (at least according to our forecasting), and have another winnable road game tonight.

‘-TULANE AT HOUSTON (American).  This should be an easy win for Houston.  Tulane’s program is showing signs of moving in the right direction very quickly, but they aren’t quite there yet and are way overmatched on the road tonight.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Missouri Valley).  Loyola is going through a stretch where they have lost games they should have won, and when they’ve won games the haven’t looked all that good doing it.  They can’t afford to keep playing with their food or they’ll fall all the way outside the bubble.

-WISCONSIN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten).  Both teams are good, both have good profiles, and both appear to be improving as the season goes along.  It wouldn’t shock me at all if both ended up as protected seeds, so tonight’s game should be a fun litmus test as well as a chance at a resume building win.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12).  I still don’t think K State is entirely out of the picture, but every game has a pivotal feel to it and they need this one tonight.

-DAYTON AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  VCU is clearly outside the bubble, but they’ve been playing really well lately, and appear to be good enough to win out.  If that happens they will at least be in the discussion.

-VILLANOVA AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  What a game this could be!!  Marquette is coming off a close loss to a very good Providence team, but outside of that they have absolutely been on fire.  Nova at times has looked like a Final Four caliber team, but only at times.  At other times they’ve merely looked like a solid top 25 team.