Bracket Projections (From David Dorman): January 24th

Posted on January 24, 2022 by David Griggs

Below is David Dorman’s personal bracket.  He is not necessarily trying to guess the committee.  He is just posting on what he personally thinks the field should look like if today was Selection Sunday.  Our panel will share some of our thoughts below..

COMMENTS FROM DAVID DORMAN:

-Last four teams selected were Boise State, Arkansas, Wyoming, and Louisiana Tech

-The teams that were next in line to make the field were: Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Mississippi State

-I only have three ACC teams in my bracket as of today, but UNC, Notre Dame, and Florida State are knocking on the door

-This year’s field will have the strongest 13 and 14 seeds The Tournament has seen in a long time

-There was a huge shake up in the conferences earning the auto bid on the 15 and 16 lines the last two weeks and these bids are wide open for any team that steps up and puts together a strong end to January.

 

COMMENTS FROM THE PUPPET:

-I do kind of like his #1 line, although I think  Arizona needs more at the top of their resume before I anoint them a #1 seed.  If they win at UCLA and USC, then I’ll be ready to put them all the way up there.

-As a bracketing rule, I also like that David just said “Screw it!! BYU is going to Chicago!!” All kidding aside, I don’t mind at all that BYU does not want to play on Sundays, but there are times it makes it hard to build the bracket.

-I like Murray State more than a #12 seed, especially if they continue to blow through the Ohio Valley.  I know their win at Memphis is starting to lose some of its sparkle, but if you look at them on the court they are really good and definitely worthy of a spot inside the bubble.

-I continue to be the only one at Hoops HD that thinks Marquette is clearly better than a #8 seed.  Others don’t even have them that high.  How are they not at least a #6??  WHAT DO THEY HAVE TO DO!!??  The voters don’t seem to like them either.  They belong in the Top 25!

-As someone who was banging the drum for Ohio U to be inside the bubble, I am not banging it anymore.  Getting blown out at home by Toledo will make you change your mind.  The #13 line now seems to be where they belong.

 

COMMENTS FROM CHAD:

– I agree with the Puppet about Arizona just not having a profile as good as most of the 2 seeds so far, but they definitely have a chance to get it there, beginning this week.  I would have given the fourth 1 seed to Kansas (for now).

– I am surprised that Griggs was not upset with Houston on the 3 line.  I agree with it completely and believe there is a case for them to be even higher.  This team, no matter how many players it loses, just keeps winning.  I cannot blame them for their conference being lousy around them — and they are even fixing that by moving to the Big 12 in a couple seasons.

– I would not have had Xavier this high (4 seed).  I get that the Musketeers have no bad losses, but they also do not have a win away from home against a tournament team (I know they won at Oklahoma State but even that would not be a tournament-level win if the Cowboys were eligible).  I could see the X-Men as low as a 7 seed right now.

– Dorman has Marquette on the 8 line.  Griggs loves this Marquette team and wants them on the 6 line.  Maybe I need my head examined, but I would have had them on the 5 or even 4 line right now!  I absolutely love the way they are playing and I love their profile.  The Golden Eagles have won 6 in a row, with four of those games being wins over Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier and at Villanova.  The top of their profile is among the best in the nation, and I can now very easily forgive their losses (none of which are to bad teams at all!)

– I will forgive Dorman the BYU slip-up (sending them to a Friday-Sunday region) as even the NCAA has made that mistake before.  In fact, in doing a personal bracket this week, I had to move BYU from the 8 line up to the 6 line to find a site that fit their “No Sundays” rule and simultaneously avoided a second round matchup against Gonzaga.  The more WCC teams that make the field, the harder it is to find a spot for BYU that meets their requirements.

– I have a feeling that Dorman and I value the Big East very differently, as I also think he has Creighton way under-seeded on the 10 line.  They have beaten Villanova, BYU on a neutral court and won at the Marquette team that I just praised.  I could see the Bluejays as high as a 6 seed right now, even with the bad home loss to Arizona State.

– I agree with Griggs that Murray State may be a few lines too low on the 12 line, but the bigger issue I have on that line is the First Four game between Wyoming and Louisiana Tech.  I can live with Wyoming in the field (though I would not have had them in ), but Louisiana Tech is not an at-large caliber team after their loss at home to UAB this weekend.  The Bulldogs have no Tier 1 wins.  The Bulldogs’ only Tier 2 win was at Santa Clara, a team nowhere near the Bubble.  On top of that, they only have two Tier 3 wins!  I can find teams in the middle of the Patriot League standings with more wins against the top three tiers than that.  Sorry, Dorman, but they do NOT belong.

– I would have Florida and/or Florida State in my field as of right now over La Tech and maybe Wyoming.  Both teams are playing well right now and have enough good wins to make up for some bad losses (especially the Gators’ awful home blowout loss to Texas Southern).  I also cannot figure out why everyone seems to have totally written St. Bonaventure off.  I get that their NET is 92, but they have neutral court wins over Marquette and Boise State and only one bad loss.  I like that better than a lot of teams that made the field, and would at least have them in my top four teams out.

COMMENTS FROM JOHN:

– I think we’re all in agreement that the triumvirate of Auburn/Gonzaga/Baylor would be the top three overall seeds. As to my fourth #1 seed, I could see an argument potentially being made for Purdue given their number of Tier 1 wins, although three losses would be a deal-breaker at this checkpoint in the season.

– Providence is a team that is definitely capable of being a protected seed (keep in mind they do have wins at Wisconsin, at UConn and at home against Texas Tech), but they also had a recent Covid pause and are looking to reschedule games at Creighton, at Seton Hall and at home against UConn. Winning at Xavier (who is probably more deserving of a 5 or 6 seed themselves right now) would certainly help to fill in a blank like that, but easier said than done.

– One team that is quietly impressing me is the TCU Horned Frogs. Dorman has them as a 10 right now – I could even be convinced that they could move a little higher up than that now that they have a pair of road wins in Big 12 play that includes a sandblasting of Iowa State from last Saturday. The neutral-court loss against Santa Clara is their only bad loss at the moment, although having a noncon SOS near 300 is going to really hurt them should they find themselves squarely on the bubble come March. They have winnable games at home against Texas and LSU this week.

– I’m also not seeing the case for Louisiana Tech right now – I think Florida State would be my last team in now that they have a season sweep of fellow bubble buddy Miami. I also think that the NET is way overrating North Carolina right now. They literally have one win in the Top 2 tiers and nothing else.

– I think the Puppet was half right on the Ohio Bobcats. They are no longer what I’d call at-large worthy, but I’d also say that the Toledo Rockets have better metrics PLUS the road win in Athens that looms even larger now. UT should be the MAC auto-bid at this checkpoint.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Jan 24

Posted on January 24, 2022 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-We will be recording our Hoops HD Video Podcast later on tonight, so be on the lookout for that late tonight/early tomorrow.  We should also have a staff bracket from David Dorman posted a little later on this afternoon.

-Indiana followed up their big emotional win against Purdue with a bed crapping against Michigan.  I understand that after a big win it’s hard to get your feet back on the ground sometimes, and I think that’s partly what we saw yesterday.  But…credit to Michigan as well.  They have underperformed all season long, but got a nice road win yesterday.

-Marquette keeps stringing together wins as they knocked off Xavier at home, but it’s hardly a setback for Xavier since it was a road loss to a really good team.  Other than that, it was a pretty chalky day with few surprises.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-FLORIDA AT OLE MISS (SEC).  The Gators are straggling the bubble.  While this wouldn’t be a spectacular win, it would at least be a road win, which would help some.  Still, given their situation it feels like a loss would hurt a lot more than a win would help.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  A lot of prognosticators still have UNC in their fields, and some inexplicably have them safely in their fields.  I don’t see it.  If they don’t get this one tonight, then I think even those who are still projecting them to be inside the bubble will start to see they are in trouble.

-TENNESSEE TECH AT MURRAY STATE (Ohio Valley).  If Murray can continue to blow through the OVC then they should be inside the bubble come Selection Sunday.

-TEXAS TECH AT KANSAS (Big 12).  Both these teams are really hot right now.  Kansas is within reach of a #1 seed and Texas Tech is looking more and m0re like they can get a protected seed.  If they can somehow win this one in Lawrence tonight, they’ll REALLY be on their way.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Seton Hall is in good shape, but they did just end a two game losing streak.  This is the second time in three days they’ve played the Johnnies, and they just got the win on the road.  Winning this one at home should be doable.

-WEBER STATE AT SOUTHERN UTAH (Big Sky) (Bee Hive).  We at Hoops HD Love the Bee Hive!!!!  These are two of the better teams in the Big Sky, and first place is on the line, but the far more important storyline is what this means to the Bee Hive standings!!!

-UNLV AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  San Diego State’s margin for error is small, and they have to take care of business in pretty much all their remaining home games.

-ARIZONA STATE AT USC (Pac 12).  This is a winnable game for the Trojans.  They should be able to hold serve and remain safely in the top half of the bracket.

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Hanging with the Hoyas: Part 6

Posted on January 23, 2022 by Jon Teitel

HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel will spend the upcoming months covering several Georgetown basketball home games, with (hopefully) a very special reward coming in March. Part 5 was published earlier this month:
https://hoopshd.com/2022/01/14/hanging-with-the-hoyas-part-5-2
He continues his series with Part 6 featuring the Hoyas’ matchup yesterday against Villanova:

It was a cold morning in DC both outside and inside, as the pregame meal of French toast/scrambled eggs/sausage/biscuit was tasty…but a little cold. FS1 analyst/College Basketball Hall of Famer Jim Jackson must think I am stalking him all over DC as he and I were both at Howard for the MLK Classic game vs. Notre Dame last Monday:


I usually get stuck sitting up in a corner for games featuring big-time opponents like Villanova so I was thrilled to learn that I would be in my usual spot behind the basket!


It was a “Gray-Out” game with free t-shirts for the fans so the lower level was pretty full:


Let’s tip it off:


It is always fun to see a pair of Hall of Famers on the sideline in Patrick Ewing/Jay Wright…although it is still weird to see the latter not wearing a suit:


Apparently, Villanova was still in mourning after blowing a 9-PT 2nd half lead at home to Marquette last Wednesday so they broke out the black uniforms for this 1:


It was a homecoming of sorts for Wildcat G Justin Moore, who grew up less than 20 miles south of Capital 1 Arena in Ft. Washington, MD. He showed out for his hometown fans with a 3 and a bunch of layups in the 1st half:


I assumed that Georgetown was going to get blown out but Coach Ewing had his team play a lot of full-court press to start, which gave the Wildcats fits:


After only playing 22 minutes before fouling out in a win over Howard last month, Hoya FR Aminu Mohammed’s workload has increased significantly as he has played 33+ minutes in every game since then. I fear that exhaustion might eventually take its toll but he was very active in the 1st 20 minutes with several layups:


Dante Harris was 0-2 from behind the arc in a loss at Providence on Thursday but his pink shoes seemed to be working just fine in DC as he made a pair of threes early:


His teammate Donald Carey missed 3 games earlier this month but made a season-high 5 shots from behind the arc vs. the Friars. His shot was not falling that much on Saturday (1-6 3PM) so he became more of a distributor with a season-high 7 AST and helped his team build a 40-37 lead at halftime:


Georgetown SO Collin Holloway took over in the 2nd half, making a hook in the lane and a 3 to give his team its largest lead of the day at 47-39. He kept making a ton of layups in the 2nd half en route to a career-high 25 PTS/9-10 FG:


Moore continued to get into the lane in the 2nd half for several more layups, as did his teammate Jermaine Samuels who finished with 18 PTS/3 STL:


Amazingly, with 11 minutes left the Wildcats only had 3 total AST, which seemed impossible, but that was primarily a result of SR PG Collin Gillespie taking matters into his own hands. Instead of distributing the ball to his teammates, he turned into a scorer and ended up with 28 PTS/6-9 3PM. After making 41 threes in 20 games last year, he now has 62 in his 1st 19 games this year, which is 10th-most in the nation:


Even though it was not a 1-possession game (Villanova won by a final of 85-74), the free throw shooting for both teams was a sight to behold as they combined to make 32-33 from the charity stripe. That is a wrap for the Hoyas’ final home game of January, but check back in February when Georgetown hosts 3 Big East opponents during the 1st 6 days of the month.

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Happy Birthday!: HoopsHD interviews former coach Pat Douglass

Posted on January 23, 2022 by Jon Teitel

It is hard enough to succeed at 1 school but there are a handful of coaches who have had success at multiple schools including Fran Dunphy (250+ wins at Penn and 250+ wins at Temple), Bob Huggins (300+ wins at Cincinnati and 300+ wins at West Virginia), and Roy Williams (400+ wins at Kansas and 400+ wins at UNC). Pat Douglass also won games everywhere he coached: 100+ wins and 4 D-2 tourney appearances at Eastern Montana, 250+ wins and a trio of D-2 titles at Bakersfield, and almost 200 wins and back-to-back NIT appearances at UC-Irvine. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Coach Douglass about winning all of those titles and then switching schools. Today is Coach Douglass’ 72nd birthday so let us be the 1st to wish him a happy 1!

You played basketball at Pacific: how good a player were you back in the day, and how did you get into coaching? I always wanted to be a coach. We had really good teams at Pacific and I started as a senior along with my teammate John Gianelli (who later played 8 years in the NBA). We were undefeated at home for 3 straight years under Coach Dick Edwards. Coach Edwards passed away when I was 28 and I ended up replacing him at Eastern Montana.

In the 1993 D-2 tourney title game as coach at Bakersfield, Terry McCord scored 23 PTS to help beat Troy State, win the title, and finish 33-0 (the 1st undefeated team to win the D-2 title since 1965): how were you able to keep your team focused for 33 straight games, and where does that season rank among the highlights of your career? I had a lot of good teams in my days as a high school/JC coach but it was very special to go undefeated and win a title. We had 4-5 kids who previously won state titles so after we won a few games it just kind of snowballed from there. We had some new players who did not get worn down and were able to stay motivated all year, plus a nice tradition that was built on our returning players.

In the 1994 D-2 tourney title game Kenny Warren scored 21 PTS in a 6-PT win over Southern Indiana to become the 1st team in 25 years to repeat as D-2 champions: was it harder to win the 1st title or the 2nd title? It was harder to win the 1st title because we had to face some tough teams to get there.

Tourney MOP Kebu Stewart had 18 PTS/21 REB in a 1-PT win over Northern Kentucky in the 1997 D-2 tourney title game to clinch your 3rd national title in 5 years: how were you able to hang on for the win, and where does Stewart rank among the best players that you ever coached? He is in the top-5 but was probably the best at his position. If he could have converted at the FT line it would not have been that close but we were able to block a shot at the buzzer.

What are your memories of the 2001 NIT as coach at UC-Irvine (Greg Harrington scored 20 PTS in a 4-PT win by eventual champion Tulsa)? The NIT is tough because the schools with bigger arenas get to play host, which gives them a huge advantage. It was a tough road game for us but it was good to win 25 games en route to claiming the league title. I actually think that it is easier to win an NCAA tourney game because it is at a neutral site.

In 2002 you won your 2nd straight Big West regular season title: did you ever consider switching schools to face a new challenge or was your hope to stay at Irvine for as long as possible? After that year our AD Dan Guerrero went to UCLA and it was never the same for me after that. At a mid-major the relationship with your AD is really important.

In the 2006 Big West tourney Aaron Nixon scored 28 PTS including a 3-PT shot at the buzzer in a 2-PT loss to Long Beach State: where does that rank among the most devastating losses of your career? The kid just turned and heaved it from the corner. I am used to winning when I have a lead with 2 minutes to go so it was weird to lose a close game at the end. His parents were there and everyone was watching on TV: it was a tough loss.

In the 2008 Big West tourney you made it to the title game before losing to Fullerton: how big a deal was it to come so close year after year without ever making it to the NCAA tourney? We had a lot of good games in the conference tourney. Jerry Green was a really good player for us: we should have won the conference tourney at least once during his time there. Once you lose a couple you start putting pressure on yourself to get it done. I was happy just to get the program started and have a few 20-win seasons as coach: Irvine finally made the NCAA tourney in 2015.

In 2010 you finished your career in Irvine as the winningest coach in school history: what made you such a great coach, and do you think that anyone will ever break your record? If someone coaches there long enough then they will probably break the record. I played for some exceptional coaches in high school/college. I always had a thirst to learn from the best and have a team framework where everyone worked well together and played good defense.

What have you been doing since leaving Irvine, and what do you hope to do in the future? I am involved with my local church, play a lot of golf, and spend time with my family, all of which makes me happy. I was a coach for 30 years and loved it, but I look forward to what I do now and staying relaxed.

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Bracketology 2022: March Madness Predictions (Version 4.0)

Posted on January 23, 2022 by Jon Teitel

CLICK HERE for today’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games

We are only 7 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams that made the 2021 tourney, 62 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 47 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 13th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 19th out of 135 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Auburn (SEC)
1: Gonzaga (WCC)
1: Baylor (Big 12)
1: Arizona (Pac-12)

2: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Purdue (Big 10)
2: Duke (ACC)
2: Villanova (Big East)

3: LSU (SEC)
3: Houston (AAC)
3: Michigan State (Big 10)
3: Kentucky (SEC)

4: UCLA (Pac-12)
4: Texas Tech (Big 12)
4: Wisconsin (Big 10)
4: Illinois (Big 10)

5: Xavier (Big East)
5: Ohio State (Big 10)
5: Alabama (SEC)
5: Tennessee (SEC)

6: Iowa State (Big 12)
6: Providence (Big East)
6: USC (Pac-12)
6: Connecticut (Big East)

7: Texas (Big 12)
7: Seton Hall (Big East)
7: BYU (WCC)
7: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)

8: Iowa (Big 10)
8: Colorado State (MWC)
8: Indiana (Big 10)
8: West Virginia (Big 12)

9: Marquette (Big East)
9: Davidson (A-10)
9: San Diego State (MWC)
9: Oklahoma (Big 12)

10: San Francisco (WCC)
10: Creighton (Big East)
10: Murray State (OVC)
10: Wake Forest (ACC)

11: North Carolina (ACC)
11: Miami (ACC)
11: St. Mary’s (WCC)
11: Wyoming (MWC)

12: Florida (SEC)
12: Mississippi State (SEC)
12: TCU (Big 12)
12: Oregon (Pac-12)
12: UAB (C-USA)
12: Iona (MAAC)

13: Toledo (MAC)
13: Chattanooga (SoCon)
13: Vermont (America East)
13: South Dakota State (Summit)

14: Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
14: Oakland (Horizon)
14: Wagner (NEC)
14: Seattle (WAC)

15: Weber State (Big Sky)
15: Princeton (Ivy)
15: Fullerton (Big West)
15: UNC-Wilmington (CAA)

16: Loyola MD (Patriot)
16: Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
16: Winthrop (Big South)
16: Texas A&M CC (Southland)
16: Norfolk State (MEAC)
16: Southern (SWAC)

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 23

Posted on January 23, 2022 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Auburn continues to look like a #1 seed as they beat Kentucky 80-71 in this game.  Obviously Auburn winning a big showcase game is the big story, but I think another story was how well Kentucky played on the road against a #1 seed caliber team.  They jumped out early, they were in there until the end, and they had some setbacks with injuries as well.  This is a Kentucky team that is really starting to put it together.

-Kansas needed to come from behind on the road against their rivals, but they somehow managed to do it and escaped from Kansas State with a 78-75 win.

-UCLA picked up another notable road win as they knocked off Colorado 71-65.

-LSU lost their third straight game and may start to be coming down to Earth a little bit.  It’s not that winning at Tennessee is easy, and it’s not as if it’s any real setback, but after three straight losses (even though all were to good opponents), perhaps the talk of them being a #2 seed is dying down some.

-TCU needed a big road win, and they definitely got it yesterday as they knocked off Iowa State 59-44.  It was a rock fight.  It wasn’t always pretty to watch, but on paper this is HUGE for the Horned Frogs.

-Loyola Chicago fell behind big again, this time by as much as 20.  While they started to come back in the final minutes, this time they didn’t make it all the way back.  Missouri State knocked off the Ramblers 79-69, which is their first home loss of the year.  They are still safely inside the bubble, but this does knock them down a peg or two.

-Texas needs notable wins, and they got one yesterday against Oklahoma State 56-51.  It was at home, but it was still something.

-Florida State jumped out to an impressive 24pt lead at Miami, and almost blew it.  The Canes came all the way back and nearly won the game, but the Noles held on for a very important 61-60 road win, which really helps them out.  FSU has now won eight of their last nine.

-Davidson had to sweat at Fordham, but escaped with a 69-66 win.  While Fordham is noticeably MUCH better, this would have still been a setback for the Wildcats.

-UAB is beginning to make a case for themselves.  They aren’t quite inside our bubble, and given their remaining schedule it will be tough for them to get there, but they should probably be on our radar.  They had a big 83-76 win at Louisiana Tech yesterday.  It was LA Tech’s first home loss, which the committee should notice.  If the Blazers can win out, which they are good enough to do, I believe they will deserve to be in the field.

-Wyoming is a team that is straddling the bubble.  They held on to avoid what would have been a damaging loss to New Mexico 93-91.

-Wake Forest blew out North Carolina 98-76.  This is a decent Wake team that is probably on the board, but even with that if North Carolina is on ANYONE’s board right now, that person should be made to quit even having a board.

-Arkansas held on for an overtime win against Texas A&M 76-73.  Both teams are hovering around the bubble, and both could’ve really used this win yesterday.

-San Diego State and Boise State were in an absolute rock fight of a game yesterday.  Neither team could get their offense going, but the important thing is that Boise State, who is straddling the bubble, picked up a huge and much needed road win 42-37.  Other than the score (which doesn’t really matter) this win will look great on their resume.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-BUTLER AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Providence is continuing to rack up wins and build a strong resume.  This is a winnable conference home game, which would get them to 6-1 in Big East play.

-NORTHWESTERN AT PURDUE (Big Ten).  Purdue is looking to bounce back from a road loss against rival Indiana.  They’re still a solid protected seed, but it will take a Herculean effort to get them all the way up to the #! line.

-XAVIER AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Marquette is among the hottest teams in the country right now and is coming off a big win at Villanova.  They’re at home today against a Xavier team that’s ranked solidly in the top 20, and who is looking for some big road wins of their own to get them considered for a protected seed.

-IONA AT QUINNIPIAC (MAAC).  If Iona can keep winning, they should end up inside the bubble.

-ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA (Pac 12).  With just one loss on the season Arizona continues to prove that they are a very tough team to beat.  They blew out Stanford in their last game and should be able to pick up yet another road win this afternoon.

-MICHIGAN AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Indiana has been playing really well lately, especially at home, and has another winnable conference home game today.

-WASHINGTON AT OREGON (Pac 12).  Oregon has finally started to string together some wins and is looking more and more like a solid tournament team (at least on the court).  They should be able to hold serve at home today against their rivals.

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