Hoops HD

-We will be recording the Hoops HD Report tonight, and I’ll have my personal bracket projection posted some time this afternoon.  Be on the lookout for both of those.

-Purdue followed up their loss at Rutgers with a near loss to NC State.  The game was on a neutral floor, so it was kind of surprising to see Purdue trail for most of the game.  They did manage an 82-72 win in overtime, and while losing to NC State on a neutral floor is hardly the kind of loss that sinks your season, it is the kind of loss that indicates that a team may not be a #1 seed caliber team like we believe Purdue to be.

-The Villanova vs Baylor game may have been the worst game that i’ve ever seen between two teams that were really good.  And…both teams are really good.  You just wouldn’t have known that by watching the first half.  I’ll give credit to Baylor.  Their defense is ridiculously good.  And, they did beat a really good Villanova team without even having to sweat 57-36.   Going back to last season Baylor has won 15 straight, and 37 of their last 39.  Of all those wins, I only count eight that you would consider to be buy games.  They are on a ridiculous run!

-Florida has hit a skid.  They’ve now lost three of their last four, one of those was to Texas Southern in a blowout, and yesterday they fell to a Maryland team 70-68 that hadn’t been playing well at all.  The Gators need to pull themselves out of the tailspin they’re in.

-Florida’s rivals to the North are also having issues.  Florida State fell to South Carolina 66-65 and are now just 5-4 on the season.

-Let’s keep the underachievements rolling!!  Oregon!!  They… have underachieved.  They fell at Stanford last night 72-69 and are now just 5-5 on the year.  They have the time and talent to get things turned around, but to date have not looked anything like the team we thought they would.

-Seton Hall held of Rutgers 77-63 in a game that was close most of the way, but that Seton Hall opened up at the end.  I pretty good week for Seton Hall who beat Texas earlier in the week.  Now they need to get some wins away from home.

As for tonight’s games, it has been a long time since so few games of meaning were played..

-CLEVELAND STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE.  This game would be a little bit more important if only Oklahoma State were eligible for the postseason.  Cleveland State will be one of the frontrunners in the Horizon League, and with a 6-2 record I suppose a big win like this could catch the attention of the committee.

-RHODE ISLAND AT MILWAUKEE.  It’s some low hanging fruit for Rhody.  It should be an easy road win for them.

NEWS AND NOTES:

-The spotlight game of the day ended up being probably the best game of the day.  I hope those in the east were able to stay up and watch it.  Houston and Alabama was an absolute battle between two top ten caliber teams that both have a chance at ending up on the #1 line.  Houston didn’t win the game, but top ten teams simply don’t lose at home.  To anyone.  The teams that end up on the #1 and #2 lines will in a normal year have less than five total losses at home combined, and with the kinds of wins that Alabama has (particularly against Gonzaga in Seattle), their top ten ranking is well deserved.  Houston went in there and nearly beat them.  They came so close to beating them that had a questionable no-call on a goaltend at the end been called, Houston would have won.  On paper that would have been huge and been the kind of win that can get a team a #1, but the fact that it wasn’t called does not change how good Houston actually is on the court.  They are damn good!  Again!  And…so is Bama.  This was a GREAT game!

-The biggest surprise of the day was Kentucky losing at Notre Dame.  Notre Dame was at home, and Kentucky hadn’t played a true road game yet, but still all indicators were that Kentucky was really good and Notre Dame…well…wasn’t.  It was close the entire way, and I kept waiting for (and expecting) Kentucky to get control of the game.  But…it never happened, and ND ended up with a 66-62 win after scoring a go-ahead basket in the final seconds, and then getting a transition dunk as time expired.  So…a box that Kentucky still needs to check is that they have not yet won a true road game.

-Arizona has been as impressive as hell this year.  They got another big win as they traveled to Illinois and beat a pretty good (or at least talented) Illini team 83-79

-UCLA got another nice win as they knocked off Marquette on the road.  The game was played at a later time than originally scheduled due to travel delays, but UCLA still got it done.

-Minnesota, who we had no expectations for whatsoever this year, and even with a solid 7-1 record still weren’t paying all that much attention to, went into Michigan eysterday and completely controlled the second half in their 75-65 win.  Two things to take out of this game…Minney is for real, and Michigan is not.

-The Border War resumed yesterday!!  It was more of a massacre than a war.  Kansas blasted Missouri into the sun with a 102-65 win.

-Oklahoma “upest” 12th ranked Arkansas in OKC yesterday.  The game was such a blowout that you can’t help but wonder if it really was an upset.  Arkansas had looked pretty good coming into yesterday, but Oklahoma just looked better in nearly every aspect and probably deserves more national love than what they’ve been getting.

-Neither Saint Bonaventure or UConn were at full strength for their match-up yesterday, but it was still another nice win for UConn.  The Bonnies will likely blow through the A10 and land safely inside the bubble, but the chances of them getting a protected seed are small.

-Creighton dominated BYU for most of the game, and even though BYU made the final score look somewhat respectable, at no point were they actually in the game.  Creighton is one of many Big East teams that has outperformed their preseason expectations.

-Georgetown knocked off Syracuse at home.  This is a rivalry from the Classic Big East days, and this edition of the game did not disappoint.  It did, however, make it appear that neither of these teams belong inside the bubble.  Both have work to do.

-Colorado State remains unbeaten after knocking off a pretty solid Mississippi State team 66-63.  The Rams will likely crack the rankings next week, and will likely stay there for the remainder of the year.

-Drake needed a win at Clemson.  Drake trailed for most of the game, but came back to force overtime.  Drake did not win in overtime.  They are in trouble.  At 6-4 overall with several missed opportunities, that just isn’t good enough for a UTR team to land inside the bubble.

-South Dakota State knocked off Washington State with a 3pt shot at the buzzer for a 77-74 win.  It’s a big win for South Dakota State who is a really good UTR team, and while it’s probably an ego-bruising loss for Wazzu, they’re still in good shape overall.

-TCU is now 8-1 on the year after their win against Texas A&M in Houston.  They haven’t played the toughest of schedules, but beating TAMU on a neutral floor is certainly noteworthy.

-Fresno State is now 8-2 on the year after beating a pretty good UC Irvine team.  It was a home win, and nothing on Fresno State’s resume screams protected seed, but they’re still shaping up to be a good team that we need to keep an eye on.

-Xavier blasted Cincinnati in their rivalry game to improve to 9-1 on the year (with 7 wins coming at home).  X hasn’t exactly been a road warrior this year, but they still have some notable wins against good teams (albeit at home) and their only loss on the year was to a very good Iowa State team.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-VILLANOVA AT BAYLOR (***Spotlight Game***).  Villanova is playing yet another top ten team.  Away from home.  It’s just what they do this year.  Both these teams are potential #1 seeds, which means this is an important game in regards to this bieng an opportunity for a huge quality win.

-FORDHAM AT MIAMI FL.  Fordham is 7-4 on the year, which is tons better than what they normally are.  Miami is a respectable 7-3 and needs to string together some wins to get on the map.

-FLORIDA STATE AT SOUTH CAROLINA.  This would be a notable road win (at least for now) for a Florida State team that could really use some good things on their resume right about now.

-PURDUE VS NC STATE (Basketball Hall of Fame).  Purdue is looking to bounce back from their loss at Rutgers, which they should be able to do.  NC State is a decent 7-2, but they haven’t won any games anywhere close to the caliber of what this would be.  If they were to pull this off it would suddenly catapult them onto the national scene.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT DAYTON.  You get the sense that both of these teams have potential, but that both also have a lot of catching up to do, which means both should be coming into this one with a sense of urgency.

-KENT STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA.  It’s a buy game, but it is one that could be reasonably competitive.

-FLORIDA VS MARYLAND (Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational).  Maryland is going in the wrong direction and while Florida is still in good shape, they’re also still trying to wash the taste of the loss to Texas Southern out of their mouths.  A win in a game like this could do that.

-OREGON AT STANFORD (Pac 12).  Oregon is a team we were all big on at the beginning of the year, and they still have a ton of potential, but they need to hit the gas and start winning.  They kind of need this one against a Stanford team that is probably ending up outside the bubble.

-IONA VS YALE (Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational).  Iona is a team that we need to think of as a tournament caliber team.  This will give them another win away from home on their resume, but it still won’t move the needle all that much.

-MONMOUTH AT PITTSBURGH.  Monmouth missed an opportunity to get a notable win at Saint John’s earlier this week.  We highlight this not because winning at Pitt is notable for a tournament caliber team, but because losing at Pitt is a bad loss for a team that’s trying to land inside the bubble.

-RUTGERS AT SETON HALL.  Both of these teams are coming off wins against top ten teams at home. and it’s also a rivalry.  Rutgers still hasn’t won a road game yet, but if they win this one, and secure their second top 25 win in just one week with one of them was against the top ranked tam, and the other being on the road…THAT’S A HELL OF A WEEK!!

BUY GAMES (or games that might as well be):

-Merrimack @ Indiana
-Colgate @ Saint John’s
-Jackson State @ Iowa State
-Wofford @ Coastal Carolina – if Wofford has any shot at all at landing on the bubble, they basically need to win out
-Tennessee Wesleyan (nonD1) @ Chattanooga
-Millsaps (nonD1) @ UAB
-NJIT @ Northwestern
-Long Beach State @ USC
-Green Bay @ Kansas State

NEWS AND NOTES:

-Murray State picked up a big road win at Memphis 74-72.  They actually fell behind by as much as 14 late in the first half and came back to win.  This gets Murray to a rather impressive 8-1 on the year, and with a road win like that you have to start thinking of them as a team that could land on the bubble, or even inside of it.  Belmont, who is in the Ohio Valley along with Murray, also has some notable wins and is also looking like a potential tournament team.  As for Memphis, they fall to 5-4, and we may need to start looking at them as a team that could potentially miss the tournament.

-Loyola Chicago picked up another road win as thy knocked off Vanderbilt 69-58 without too much trouble.  The Ramblers are another UTR team that should land inside the bubble if they keep winning at the clip they have been.

-DePaul got a really nice road win at Louisville.  It was their first true road game of the season, and it improves them to 8-1 on the year with the only loss being to Loyola Chicago.  Louisville is in a bit of a tailspin both on and off the court.  They need some wins not just to get their resume in order, but to get their mental health in order as well.

HIGLIGHTED GAMES:

-HOUSTON AT ALABAMA (***Spotlight Game***).  Both teams are ranked in the top 15, both teams already have big wins on their resume, both are on pace (for now) to become protected seeds, and this is the kind of win that can make a case for a team being a #1 seed.  It’s also the first true road game for Houston, so we should learn quite a bit about them tonight.

-NEBRASKA AT AUBURN.  I almost put this down with the buy games, but at 5-5 Nebraska is a little better that.  I still think it’ll be an easy win for Auburn, though.

-WISCONSIN AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Both teams are in the rankings, and both have some big wins on their resumes already.  Wisconsin just survived a home scare against Indiana and will need to play a lot better to beat a really good Ohio State team on the road.  It’s a conference game, and it’s a resume building opportunity for both teams.

-BYU VS CREIGHTON (game in Sioux Falls).  A good chance for both of these teams to pick up a notable win away from home, which means it’s a resume boosting opportunity for both of them.  BYU deserves credit for going out and playing teams like they have.

-SYRACUSE AT GEORGETOWN.  This is perhaps the signature rivalry of the Classic Big East.  I don’t know how classic it will be this year, though.  Georgetown is 4-1 at home, but this is a bigger test than the caliber of games they’ve been winning.  Syracuse is looking for their second true road win.

-ARKANSAS AT OKLAHOMA.  The Razorbacks are off to a 9-0 start, and you can’t ask for more than that, but this is their first true road game and it is a test.  Oklahoma probably isn’t as good as Arkansas, but it’s still a game they can win on their home court.

-PENN STATE AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Should be a winnable conference home game for the Spartans.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE VS COLORADO STATE (Basketball Hall of Fame Classic).  I’ve been banging the drum for Colorado State all year.  They haven’t lost yet, but this is probably their biggest test up to this point.  It’s a neutral floor game against a pretty good Mississippi State team.  This is a game that Mississippi State could use as well.  It would also arguably be their biggest win of the season up to this point against an almost and likely soon to be top 25 team.

-DRAKE AT CLEMSON.  Drake has won three straight, but they were all agains weak teams and they didn’t exactly bury any of them.  This is the kind of win they need to get their resume, and perhaps their season, turned back around.

-UCLA AT MARQUETTE.  This is a tough road game, but UCLA is a #1 seed caliber team that is certainly capable of winning tough road games.  Marquette is unbeaten at home with some notable wins on their resume, but none as big as this.  It would be a game they’d probably get quite a bit of credit for winning even though they’re the home team.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE AT WASHINGTON STATE.  South Dakota State suffered a real head-scratching loss to Idaho earlier this week, and that is the last thing any UTR team needs that’s trying to play their way onto the bubble.  They’ve got a chance at a notable win today against what’s looking more and more like a really good Wazzu team, but they’ll need to do much better than they did the other night.

-MISSOURI AT KANSAS (Border War).  THE BORDER WAR IS BACK!!!  THE BORDER WAR IS BACK!!!  So…on paper, this is a huge mismatch and given how good Kansas is and the kinds of wins they’ll have on their resume at the end of the year, this won’t move the needle at all.  In fact, given how poorly Mizzou has looked in several of their games, it’s shaping up to be a real snoozer.  But…that doesn’t matter!!  THE BORDER WAR IS BACK!!!!

-SAINT BONAVENTURE VS UCONN (Never Forget Tribute Classic).  This is the kind of game that if the Bonnies were to win it, and then blow through the rest of their schedule, you could argue that they deserve a solid protected seed.  If they don’t win it, but blow through the rest of their schedule, they’ll still be high in the rankings and still easily wearing white in the Round of 64, but they’ll be lacking a big time signature win away from home.  UConn has been better than expected this year, and it’s a chance for them to add another notable win to their resume.

-UNC GREENSBORO AT TENNESSEE.  It’s a buy game, but UNCG is off to a respectable 7-2 start with a win on the road.  They may be more competitive than expected, and if they can somehow win, then this catapults them into the picture.

-ARIZONA AT ILLINOIS.  This is a HUGE road test for Arizona, and would be a huge statement win if they could pull it off.  Illinois has stumbled a couple of times and has fallen out of the rankings, but they have a very high ceiling and I think they’re going to get back in there soon enough.  A win at home like this against a highly ranked team is just as important for their confidence and momentum as it is a big win for them on paper.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT SAINT LOUIS.  BC comes in with a very respectable record, and SLU has done well this year despite battling injuries.  If they hold serve in this one then they’ll still be on a good path.

-KENTUCKY AT NOTRE DAME.  This is a huge mismatch.  Kentucky shouldn’t have too much trouble winning despite the fact that it’s a road game, and that it’s UK’s first true road game of the year.

-LSU AT GEORGIA TECH.  This will be the first road test of the year for LSU, and while it’s a winnable game, it’s not necessarily a gimme game.

-UC SANTA BARBARA AT SAINT MARY’S.  We really like this UCSB team, but while their record is respectable they haven’t made a big statement yet.  This would certainly qualify.  Saint Mary’s is unbeaten at home, and they’ve also tested themselves on the road, and they appear to be well on their way toward landing inside the bubble.

-TOLEDO AT RICHMOND.  Toledo comes in at 7-2, and Richmond is a rather disappointing 5-4.  At the start of the year I would have said this is a game where Richmond should be able to hold serve against a good UTR team.  Now I’m inclined to say that while it’s not easy, it’s a winnable road game for Toledo.

-TCU VS TEXAS A&M (game in Houston).  Both of these teams come in at 7-1, but both also have resumes that could use upgrading, and this is a chance for them to make that happen.

-MINNESOTA AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Minney has a good 7-1 record, and Michigan has stumbled a little bit early on despite having a ton of talent.  Still, the Wolverines will be extremely difficult to beat on their home floor.

-UC IRVINE AT FRESNO STATE.  These are two good teams who have limited chances at resume builders (especially the Eaters), but both have the chance at a good win tonight.  This one is definitely worth tuning in to!

-NEW MEXICO STATE AT LMU.  New Mexico State has a very narrow margin for error if they want to land inside the bubble, but they do at least have a margin.  This would be an at least decent road win for them if they’re able to pull it off.

-LIBERTY AT STEPHEN F AUSTIN.  Two good UTR teams that are admittedly long shots at best at landing inside the bubble, but it should still be a fun game to watch!

-WESTERN KENTUCKY AT OLE MISS.  WKU has been a little disappointing this year, but they are still a talented team and Ole Miss won’t want to just overlook them.

-CINCINNATI AT XAVIER (Crosstown Shootout).  It’s a big rivalry game, and it’s actually a game that both teams could use on paper.  Cincinnati has a nice win against Illinois, but considering that this is a road game against a Xavier team that probably won’t lose too many at home even in the Big East, this would give their resume another big boost in the right direction.  Xavier can get to 9-1 on the season if they can hold serve.

-SANTA CLARA AT CALIFORNIA.  Santa Clara has an uphill climb to get inside the bubble.  This is a winnable road game and it’s the kind of game that they need to be able to win.

-UTAH VALLEY AT WYOMING.  Utah Valley comes in at 7-2 and with a nice win against BYU on their resume (albeit at home).  Wyoming is coming off their first loss of the season, and while losing at Arizona is hardly a damaging loss, getting blown out the way that they were is probably a little discouraging.  This is a bit of a bounce back opportunity for them.

BUY GAMES (or games that might as well be):

-Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech – not a buy game, but a rivalry game between a decent UTR team in Louisiana, and a good UTR team in Louisiana Tech
-Saint John Fisher (nonD1) @ Buffalo
-Temple @ Saint Joseph’s (Big Five) – only being mentioned because we love the Big 5!
-Central Connecticut @ Providence
-Ohio U @ Steston – I still think Ohio U is a really good UTR team, but to make a run at the bubble they have to start putting together a long string of wins
-Eastern Illinois @ Butler
-Maine Fort Kent (nonD1) @ Weber State
-Manhattan @ Utah – Manhattan is a very respectable 6-2, but this is a very big test for them
-Radford @ James Madison – JMU’s path to the NCAA Tournament is basically them winning out
-Norfolk State @ Wichita State – Norfolk State has a good record, but is still way overmatched
-Elon @ North Carolina
-TAMUCC @ Omaha – a win for TAMUCC, which is likely,  gets them to 9-1 on the season
-New Orleans @ Utah State

-The biggest surprises always come on the nights you’re not expecting anything.  Hence the term “Surprise.”  And…we had another one last night.  Rutgers led Purdue for most of the first half, and as you would expect the place was bonkers.  As you would also expect, Purdue battled back and got the lead, and while it was a battle, you started to feel like it was inevitable that they were going to win.  But, they never pulled away, and then with less than 15 seconds to go Rutgers hit a shot that put them ahead.  Purdue came down the floor on their possession and hit what appeared to be a game winning shot with 3 seconds to play, and then all Rutgers could do was throw up a desperation mid-court heave…which Ron Harper Jr. did…and it went in!!  A HUGE upset and feel-good win for Rutgers as they take down the #1 ranked team for the first time ever, and maybe a moment where things turn around for them.  It seems like they should have been better than what they’ve been up to this point.  Maybe this gets them kickstarted.

-Seton Hall held on to beat Texas in a game that went down to the wire.  It’s a nice win for Seton Hall that they should get some credit for despite the fact they were at home.  Texas is still looking for their first true road win, but to be fair the two road games they’ve played and lost were against top 25 teams.

-Iowa State absolutely clobbered Iowa 73-53 in the Cy-Hawk Series.  Iowa State is DAMN good!!

-Saint John’s held off Monmouth 88-83.  The Johnnies led most of the way, but Monmouth really made it close down the stretch and could have actually won the game had it not been for some big defensive plays by Saint John’s.

-APPALACHIAN STATE AT FURMAN.  I still think Furman is a really good under the radar team, but it will take a Herculean string of wins between now and the end of the season to get them inside the bubble.

-MURRAY STATE AT MEMPHIS.  Murray State is an very respectable 7-1 with a couple of decent wins away from home.  This would be ore than just a decent win for them if they can pull it off.  Memphis has struggled some despite being loaded with talent.  They could still pull it together and end up having a big year where they finish in the rankings, but they don’t appear to be there yet and they better be on upset alert tonight.

-LOYOLA CHICAGO AT VANDERBILT.  Loyola Chicago is looking for their second true road win of the season.  Vandy has been better than expected (at least better than I thought they’d be), and they are at home, so it wouldn’t be overly shocking if they won this, but I still think Loyola Chicago is clearly the better team.

-DEPAUL AT LOUISVILLE.  DePaul only has one loss on the season (home to Loyola Chicago), but this is their first road game of the year, and it’s also their biggest test so far.  Louisville has done modestly well and just needs to hold serve tonight.

-MILWAUKEE AT COLORADO – buy game.