News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Nov 9th: SEASON OPENER!!

NEWS AND NOTES:

-So, let me start with this…

HAPPY COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON EVERYBODY!! 

There are 184 games today.  More games are being played today than on any other day of the season.  It’s not even close, really.  When you do the write-ups every day throughout the season, you learn things like that!!

-As for all the games today and what they all mean, everyone is technically starting out at zero.  Nearly everything that I say in today’s writeup is purely speculative.  For all I know, the Toledo @ Valpo game could end up being of much higher importance at the end of the season than the Duke vs Kentucky game.  That’s one of the things that’s so great about college basketball.  Teams ultimately play their way (for the most part) into whatever position they end up in.  If the SWAC gets out there and wins 80 percent of their out of conference games, they’ll be sending 7 teams to the NCAA Tournament.  Nothing is predetermined.

But, there is no way to look at today’s games without being able to speculate, so…

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-KANSAS VS MICHIGAN STATE (Champions Classic) (***Spotlight Game***).  It’s two highly ranked teams playing on a neutral floor.  It’s a chance for both of them to get a (likely) high caliber win away form home right out of the gate.  Both teams are expected to be protected seeds, and generally a way to solidify yourself as a protected seed is to win games against top 25 caliber teams away from home.

-DUKE VS KENTUCKY (Champions Classic) (***Spotlight Game***).  Just like the other Champions Classic game, the importance is obvious.  It’s two highly ranked teams that we think can end up as protected seeds looking for a high caliber win right out of the gate.  #1 seeded teams almost always have wins like this on their resume.

-ALCORN STATE AT WASHINGTON STATE.  This is a straight up buy game, but it is also the first regulation game of the season!!  So, it gets highlighted!!

-AKRON AT OHIO STATE.  This is obviously a buy game, but it has enough intrigue to be highlighted.  The last time the Buckeyes took on a really good UTR team, they lost!  I think Ohio State is good enough to once again end up with a #1 or #2 seed, but they don’t want to overlook this Akron team, that could really give themselves an early season boost if they can pull the upset.

-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT LITTLE ROCK.  Southern Illinois is a team that’s on our radar this year, and this is a winnable road game for them to open the season.

-BELMONT AT OHIO U.  This game won’t get major headlines, but it is a hugely important game between two really good UTR teams that we think have a chance at playing their way inside the bubble.  This is the kind of OCC games that we live for!  It’s a high stakes game for two Under the Radar teams right out of the gate!!

-NORTHEASTERN AT COLGATE.  I don’t think either team ends up inside the bubble, but it’s still a fun game between two good UTR teams that we think can end up at or near the top of their conference standings.

-EVANSVILLE AT CINCINNATI.  This is technically a buy game, but we think the Missouri Valley could send multiple teams to the tournament this year, and while Cincinnati appears to be the better team, they better not completely overlook the Aces.

-DELAWARE AT DAVIDSON.  This is another fun one to kick off the season.  Delaware will likely be one of the frontrunners in the Colonial, and Davidson is always well coaches and could be good enough to make some noise in the A10.  While I’m pretty sure this is technically a buy game, Davidson better not overlook the Blue Hens!

-APPALACHIAN STATE AT IONA.  Another good early season UTR match-up between two teams that made the NCAA Tournament last season and have high expectations for this season.

-HOFSTRA AT HOUSTON.  This is a buy game, and it could end up looking very much the way most buy games end up looking when it’s over, but Hofstra looks to be good enough to where they can give the Cougars a better game than most teams who end up on the receiving end of buy games.  And, it’s a chance for Hofstra to make a huge splash early in the season

-MOREHEAD STATE AT AUBURN.  This is a buy game, and it could end up looking very much the way most buy games end up looking when it’s over, but Morehead State looks to be good enough to where they can give the Tigers a better game than most teams who end up on the receiving end of buy games.  And, it’s a chance for Morehead State, who made the NCAA Tournament a year ago, to make a huge splash early in the season.

-ABILENE CHRISTIAN AT UTAH.  This is another buy game that involves a team on the receiving end that is above average.  ACU went to the NCAA Tournament a year ago, and while they are rebuilding somewhat, Utah better not completely overlook them.

-SAINT THOMAS AT CHICAGO STATE.  Welcome to D1 Saint Thomas!!!

-PEPPERDINE AT RICE.  Some of us believe that Pepperdine may be a bit of a dark horse this year.  If that’s true, then this should be a winnable road game for them.

-JACKSONVILLE STATE AT WICHITA STATE.  This could be a sneaky good game.  It’s a buy game, but Jax State is well coached and Wichita State better not overlook them.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT ALABAMA.  Alabama is a team that we think can win the SEC, and earn a protected seed, and go deep into March.  We don’t think LA Tech is quite that good, but we do think they are one of the better UTR teams out there who can contend for the top spot in Conference USA, and perhaps even a spot inside the bubble.  If they can pull off the upset tonight, that will go a long way toward getting them in the field.

-UC IRVINE AT NEW MEXICO STATE.  This is another fantastic match-up between two very good Under the Radar teams.  We could be hearing from both of them in March, and if they have hopes of landing inside the bubble, then these are the kinds of games they need to be playing (and of course, winning).

-BRADLEY AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE.  South Dakota State is another very good Under the Radar team that’s worth keeping an eye on.  They should be able to start things off with a win tonight.

-ORAL ROBERTS AT COLORADO STATE.  Colorado State is who we like to win the Mountain West, and we could see them breaking in to the top 25 later on.  Oral Roberts went on an amazing run last year, they have the bulk of those players back (albeit not all of them) and could be very dangerous this year.  This is a great game for both these teams right out of the gate!

-UC RIVERSIDE AT SAN DIEGO STATE.  This is a buy game, and it will probably end up being lopsided, but UC Riverside has made tremendous improvements to their program in recent years, and it will be interesting to see what they can do against a tournament caliber team right out of the gate.

-CHATTANOOGA AT LMU.  Chattanooga will likely be toward the top of the pack in the SoCon, and LMU is a potential dark horse in the WCC.

-CLEVELAND STATE AT BYU.  Cleveland State is another really strong Under the Radar team that we think can win the Horizon League.  If they can somehow manage an opening night win at BYU, then you’re suddenly talking about them being good enough to land inside the bubble.

 

BUY GAMES

-Mount Saint Mary’s @ Villanova
-UC San Diego @ California
-Mary Baldwin (nonD1) @ Winthrop
-Saint Peter’s @ VCU
-Eastern Michigan @ Indiana
-Central Connecticut @ UConn
-IUPUI @ Butler
-Bellarmine @ Purdue
-Texas Southern @ Oregon – TX Southern is a SWAC favorite, but is probably still way overmatched
-Loyola MD @ North Carolina
-Quinnipiac @ Maryland
-Siena @ Saint Bonaventure – Big Four
-Oakland @ West Virginia
-USC Upstate @ South Carolina
-FIU@ Georgia
-NC Central @ Richmond
-Boston U @ Rhode Island
-Portland @ Arizona State
-UIC @ Dayton
-Lafayette @ Syracuse
-The Citadel @ Pittsburgh
-Presbyterian @ Clemson
-Fairfield @ Providence
-Miami OH @ Georgia Tech
-UNC Asheville @ UAB – may not be a buy game, but UAB is good enough to land inside the bubble, so we’ll list it as one
-New Orleans @ Ole Miss
-Canisius @ Miami FL
-Niagara @ Xavier
-Mississippi Valley State @ Saint John’s
-Jackson State @ Illinois
-Tennessee Tech @ Memphis
-Mercer @ Arkansas
-Alabama State @ Western Kentucky
-Nicholls @ Northern Iowa
-SEMO @ Missouri State
-Saint Francis Brooklyn @ Wisconsin
-Western Illinois @ Nebraska
-Arkansas Pine Bluff @ Creighton
-UL Monroe @ LSU
-Elon @ Florida
-McNeese @ SMU
-Northwestern State @ Oklahoma
-Coppin State @ Loyola Chicago
-Bucknell @ NC State
-Maine @ Virginia Tech
-North Florida @ Texas Tech
-Central Arkansas at Saint Louis
-Kennesaw State @ Iowa State – As bad as Iowa State was a year ago, any win is a good win
-Central Michigan @ Missouri
-Coe College (nonD1) @ Drake
-SIUE @ Marquette
-Dixie State (soon to be Utah Tech) @ Gonzaga
-Houston Baptist @ Texas
-Navy @ Virginia
-Cal State Northridge @ USC
-Utah Valley @ Boise State
-Southern @ Louisville
-UC Davis @ Utah State
-Tarleton @ Stanford
-Montana State @ Colorado
-Eastern Washington @ Nevada
-Longwood @ Iowa
-Prairie View A&M @ Saint Mary’s
-Northern Illinois @ Washington
-Portland State @ Oregon State
-Northern Arizona @ Arizona
-Long Island @ San Francisco
-Cal State Bakersfield @ UCLA

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Bracket Projections: Preseason JNG

CLICK HERE For All of Hoops HD’s Continued and Extensive Preseason Content

This bracket was put together with our preseason JNG Rankings.  CLICK HERE FOR THE ENTIRE LIST

Joby Fortson is who puts the rankings together, and he can explain what is going on here better than I can.  I did want to emphasize that while we have a preseason ranking that you can see in rank order, for all practical (and even technical) purposes, all teams are starting off at zero.  We discovered that for the sake of context, starting everyone out at zero and posting the rankings each week simply created results that were not practical.  So, for the first few weeks, Joby draws from a combination of data projections and from the previous season for a better context, but that will quickly be phased out.  Soon, all the data that goes into these rankings will be data from the 2021-2022 season.

COMMENT FROM DAVID:  Joby made this very difficult for me to bracket!!  For starters, he had Oklahoma State on the #7 line, and since they have since been disqualified, I had to move everyone up one spot.  That bumped Oklahoma inside the First Four, and Oregon State into the field.  This also created three Pac 12 teams in the First Four, which is why Colorado is playing Arizona.  Lastly, BYU had to be moved.  I don’t know if Joby did this on purpose or not just to make it hard on me, BUT I AM BLAMING HIM FOR IT!!!

 

COMMENTS FROM JOBY:

Gonzaga is still king in the early rankings as their projections and their performance from 2020-21 where they were in the finals propels them not just on the 1 line but easily the over-all #1 seed.  Some teams (cough cough Baylor) are still getting a lot of benefit from a stellar 2020-21 season but in a few weeks that will be a distant memory as soon as all team schedules are “connected.”  Nevertheless, I still feel it comes out as a strong preseason assessment that will (hopefully) lead to the JNG once again securing the top spot among formulas for projecting the field.  This would make the JNG #1 for 6 of the last 7 seasons (not including 2020 of course) since its creation in 2015.

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In Memoriam: HoopsHD interviews Bud Ford about Ray Mears

Ray Mears stopped coaching in the 1970s but his career winning percentage of 74.7% still ranks among the best in NCAA history. He played basketball at Miami University and was later inducted into the school’s Athletics Hall of Fame. As a coach at Wittenberg University he won the NCAA College Division Basketball Tournament in 1961, then moved to Tennessee where he won 3 SEC titles and was 2-time SEC COY. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with former Tennessee SID Bud Ford about “Big Orange Country” and the Bernie & Ernie Show. Mears passed away in 2007 but today would have been his 95th birthday so we take this time to celebrate his life/legacy.

Mears played college basketball at Miami (OH) as a walk-on: how did he get into coaching? He was coaching at Wittenberg and had just won a national title when Tennessee was looking for a head coach. He was hired here to build up a program that had not been successful in several years.

He became coach at Wittenberg in 1957 and led the Tigers to 4 conference titles in 6 seasons as well as a 4-PT win over SE Missouri State in the 1961 D-2 title game: what did it mean to him to win a title? He was a very innovative coach: some of the things that he was doing in terms of promotions were ahead of his time. He did a lot of public speaking and created a booster group to promote the game. He created a holiday tournament and had our team warm up to “Sweet Georgia Brown” while using an orange and white basketball. He wanted everyone in Knoxville to come and watch the game so it helped that not all of our games were on TV. We would have made a bunch of NCAA tourneys but for the fact that Kentucky was the only SEC who kept making it because they always won the conference.

He became head coach at Tennessee in 1962: why did he take the job? He had been in junior college and wanted to coach on the D-1 level at a school that had a chance to compete against teams like Kentucky and coaches like Adolph Rupp. He was able to motivate his team to play the Wildcats: we even won several games on the road.

He was known for wearing his trademark orange blazer during games: how did he come up with the concept of “Big Orange Country”? Our arena originally had a capacity under 10,000 people, but after enlarging the arena he brought in the marching band to walk all around the floor while playing the fight song. 1 time we even had a local weightlifter wrestle a bear! We had an “Orange Tie Club” whose members all wore orange ties to games.

In the 1967 NCAA tourney Ron Widby scored 20 PTS but his shot in the final seconds rimmed out in a 1-PT loss to Dayton: did you think the shot was going in? I did not attend the game but I thought it was going in as I was listening to the game on the radio. Dayton had a really good team featuring Don May.

In the 1977 NCAA tourney Bernard King/Ernie Grunfeld each had a double-double before fouling out in a 5-PT OT loss to Syracuse: where does that rank among the most devastating losses of his career? Those 2 players each averaged 25 PPG in our run-and-gun offense. The enthusiasm for those players helped us move to a bigger arena. Syracuse had a rookie coach at the time named Jim Boeheim. I think that our most disappointing loss was to VMI in the 1976 NCAA tourney: King missed that game due to a sprained thumb. Coach Mears like the challenge of playing good teams so we traveled to a lot of good tourneys around the country.

He was a 2-time SEC COY: what did it mean to him to receive such outstanding honors? He was certainly a driven person. I hoped that we could get him into the Hall of Fame: his health issues cut his career a little short but he was still 1 of the great coaches of his era.

His career record of 399-135 still ranks among the best winning percentages in NCAA history and he never had a losing season in 21 years on the sideline: what made him such a great coach? He played a controlled offense and a 1-3-1 defense. He was also great at recruiting local players who were great athletes like Widby. He had an intensity for detail about him. He had an offensive efficiency rating system to calculate how many points you were scoring per possession: we were always tops in the nation with 1.5 or 1.6. We also were great at defensive FG% and seldom allowed opponents to shoot 50 FG% against us. We also had a great FT% and had great ball-handlers who would get fouled because there was no shot-clock back then. He believed that certain people did certain things: shooters would shoot and defenders would guard the ball.

After retiring as a coach he spent 10 years as athletic director at Tennessee-Martin: why did he take the new gig, and how did he like it compared to coaching? He did a great job at Martin: his health was what really forced him to stop coaching. He later returned to Knoxville and came to all our games. To this day every coach that followed him will wear an orange blazer when we play Kentucky or Vanderbilt as a tribute to Coach Mears.

He passed away in 2007: when people look back on his career, how do you think he should be remembered the most? There is no question that he will be remembered as a promoter but also as a very good tactician/coach. He was intense and tried to make his teams ready to play so that they were into the game.

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Handing out the Hardware: Exhibition players of 2021

The start of November means that the regular season is right around the corner: finally! We take this time to recognize the best players in college basketball during the 2021 exhibition season. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel has reviewed all of the numbers and is ready to announce his picks for the 5 best performances from the past few weeks based on all-around stats. If you think that he has overlooked anyone then feel free to tweet us your comments.

G: Isaiah Wong (Miami): 40 PTS/8-14 3PM/10-10 FT/3 STL/3 BLK in win over Nova Southeastern

G: Ryan Rollins (Toledo): 30 PTS/11-20 FG in win over Hillsdale

G: Omari Moore (San Jose State): 23 PTS/8-13 FG/13 REB/3 STL in 4-PT win over Cal State East Bay

F: Norchad Omier (Arkansas State): 22 PTS/8-13 FG/17 REB/4 BLK in 6-PT win over Blue Mountain College

F: Zach Wrightsil (Loyola New Orleans): 26 PTS/9-16 FG/12 REB in 8-PT win over New Orleans

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Unbelievable upset: HoopsHD interviews former Gardner-Webb coach Rick Scruggs

Rick Scruggs spent several decades as a head coach at many different schools including North Greenville/Belmont Abbey/Pikeville/Milligan/Gardner–Webb/Mars Hill. He had a 30-win season and a couple of postseason appearances but 1 of his greatest games was his 2007 road opener at Rupp Arena. His Gardner–Webb squad showed up in Lexington as a 25-PT underdog, then proceeded to score the 1st 14 PTS of the game and ended up beating the Wildcats by 16 PTS. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Coach Scruggs about playing a game in prison and cancelling a game when the referees did not arrive. Today marks the 14th anniversary of that unbelievable upset so we take this time to reflect on a wild win.

 (photo credit: wbtv.com)

You once played an exhibition game inside the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary: what the heck was that like, and did you make sure to let the prisoners win the game?! I was actually at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta. We were scared to death: they counted us when we arrived and told us not to leave the group, take a shower, etc. We discovered that we had the same color uniforms as the prisoners so we had to wear their “away” uniforms…even though they never played an away game! I scored 12 PTS and we won the game: some prisoners told us that they had money on us to win so we felt more pressure in that game than we did the rest of the year. What got me is that they had 3 prisoners acting as refs…but it was some of the best officiating that we had all year, which may prove my point about where I think officials should be! 2-3 of our guys took their “away” uniforms as a keepsake but I did not want to run the risk of getting caught stealing state property and having to return to the prison. It scared me to death: if 1 of the prisoners was coming at me on a breakaway, should I take a hard foul on them?!

In 1995 you became head coach at Gardner-Webb, and 5 years later you were named conference COY: why did you take the job, and what did it mean to you to win such an outstanding honor? When I was at Milligan College we went to the national tourney. There were several jobs that I thought I would enjoy taking on and Gardner-Webb was at the top of the list. I went after it hard and took it as quickly as I could. I knew that it would be a lot of work due to the lack of talent/attendance so we had to build it up from scratch. The best day of my life was the day I got married…but getting that job was probably #2. I have a great record at every level of basketball from JC/NAIA all the way up to D-1, which not a lot of coaches can say.

In 2000 Gardner-Webb made the transition from D-2 to D-1: why did the program make the switch, and what is the biggest difference between D-2 and D-1? They told me during my interview that they wanted to make the switch to D-1, which excited me but did not scare me. They hired us (I say “us” because I think of my wife and I as a package deal) because they had a great visionary president who was big on athletics. He put the money/resources into it but it was tough to play all of those guarantee games against great teams. The stigma of being a D-2 program used to keep us from recruiting some guys, but after joining D-1 we could go after a lot more players.

What are your memories of the 2005 Atlantic Sun tourney final (Gary Johnson scored 19 PTS in a 9-PT win by UCF)? We had split with them during the regular season by beating each other in close games on the road. We got all sorts of publicity when we made it to the final because it was like David vs. Goliath. I remember us being very focused but if possible we might have been too prepared. We played well but the best team won that day. That crushed me because I really wanted to coach in the NCAA tourney.

In 2007 your team scored the 1st 14 PTS of the game en route to a 16-PT win over Kentucky in Rupp Arena despite being a 25-PT underdog (www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbqtWUTLDc): how were you able to pull off the upset, and how did that game change your life (if at all)? We had seen them on TV twice so we had a great feel for them even though it was early in the year. I remember telling someone the night before the game that they were going to have a hard time guarding us and that we had a shot if we could keep Patrick Patterson in check. We had a strong game plan and the kids bought into it. To get an upset on the road you have to have things go your way early (to build confidence) and you have to have good officials (to make sure you do not get robbed on the road). As luck would have it, 2 of the 3 refs that day were good friends of mine! Everything we did early worked great. After we won I told my kids not to do anything stupid like take a victory lap or stomp on the Wildcat logo. The bus ride back lasted 6 hours…but I would not have minded if it would have taken 20 hours! When we got back there were people waiting to congratulate us and I did interviews for 2-3 weeks after that. I got to live like John Calipari/Rick Pitino…and it wore me out. I enjoyed every minute of it and returned every phone call that I got. We scored on 16 backdoor plays during the game. My secretary back then did not know a lot about basketball: when she asked if I would take a call from some guy named “Bob Knight” I told her that I would! He called me to congratulate us on the success of our fundamental basketball. I still have the front page of the next day’s newspaper up on my wall: I love that the emphasis was on the team. Even today it gets brought up at least once a month. It was strange to be recognized at airports and in bookstores, which had never happened before that game. My wife and I could not go anywhere for 3 months without me having to sign an autograph. I will never forget how quiet Rupp Arena got towards the end of the game, but their fans were so classy that they gave us an ovation afterwards.

You had several players from Australia: how are you able to recruit kids from so far away, and what impact do you think that foreign players will have on NCAA basketball in the decades to come? They are already having a big impact due to coaches going back and forth from the US to foreign countries and the talent level increasing around the world. I had a former player who went to Australia who would send me the names of other players back there, and I rolled the dice 1 year to get a kid from the Australian Institute of Sport. Once we brought in some kids who were successful and had them graduate, the Australians started to trust us and we were able to develop a pipeline of talent. There is no language barrier so they can adjust very well to life in the US. They are not as athletic but their big men can step out and shoot from behind the arc.

You left in 2010 after going 8-21 with a schedule featuring the likes of Duke/UNC/Texas: who made your schedule that year, and how do you strike a balance between scheduling good teams and trying to win games? We had to bring in a certain amount of money every year to help the school. Our best player (Grayson Flittner) had microfracture surgery and was never the same after that. Our schedule was generally dictated by money but that final year they asked me to schedule 2 more games in order to prevent budget cuts. I was a team player so I thought it was the right thing to do…and the 2 schools that could best fit into our schedule happened to be Duke/UNC. A high # of guarantee games can really affect a team: we did our part to support the school even when we knew we would take it on the chin.

You later became an assistant coach at Appalachian State to Jason Capel (who was the youngest D-1 head coach in the nation at the time): why did you take the job, and how did it feel to be an assistant with 32 years of coaching experience for a head coach who was only 30 years old? I am really close to Jason’s father Jeff Sr. and have known Jason since he was a ball boy for his dad at Wake Forest. Jeff saw that I did a good job of taking care of players and recommended me to Jason. Jason and I had a 5-hour-long talk and he decided to hire me. Jason has great bloodlines and I feel that he is ahead of his years. The biggest adjustment for me was that I could not stop our practices anytime I wanted to! Jason asked me for input on a daily basis and used a lot of my stuff offensively. He is a class guy who does not have a big ego and it helped that we had 2 other good assistants. We all have different strengths and weaknesses and it was a great relationship.

You had a wild season with 1 game cancelled after no referees showed up and another game delayed after your opponent left its uniforms behind: was it as crazy as it sounds? I told Jason 1 day that he faced more things before Christmas than I faced in the past decade! Jason was a great player himself at UNC because his dad raised him well. I think it was hard for him at the start to work with players who were not as motivated as he was. We had a lot of injuries that year but as we got healthy we became very good.

When people look back on your career, how do you want to be remembered the most? I hope I am remembered as a players’ coach who really cared about the welfare of my kids. I have guys from my 1st high school team who still call me even today, which is nice…even if they call me “sir” or “coach”! I did it the old-fashioned way: building my way up from a junior high school coach to a D-1 coach. I hope that nobody ever forgets the Kentucky win.

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MAC Media Day Recap and Response

CLICK HERE For All of Hoops HD’s Continued and Extensive Preseason Content

MEDIA DAY PRESEASON POLL:

  1. Buffalo
  2. Ohio U
  3. Toledo
  4. Kent State
  5. Akron
  6. Bowling Green
  7. Miami OH
  8. Ball State
  9. Western Michigan
  10. Central Michigan
  11. Eastern Michigan
  12. Northern Illinois

 

MEDIA DAY PRESEASON ALL CONFERENCE 1ST TEAM:

-Daeqwon Plowden – SR, G/F – Bowling Green
-Josh Mballa – SR, F – Buffalo
-Jeenathan Williams – SR, F – Buffalo
-Ben Vander Plas – SR, F – Ohio
-Ryan Rollins – SO, G – Toledo

MEDIA DAY PRESEASON ALL CONFERENCE 2ND TEAM:

-K.J. Walton – SR, G – Akron
-Sincere Carry – JR, G – Kent State
-Dae Dae Grant – JR, G – Miami OH
-Jason Carter – SR, F – Ohio U
-B. Artis White – SO, G – Western Michigan

 

COMMENTS FROM DAVID:

-Buffalo’s team once again looks to be the best in the MAC, and once again looks like it might be good enough to land inside the bubble and make the NCAA Tournament even if they fail to win the conference tournament.  Four starters are back, all of them can score, and they also got guys that can come off the bench.  What is perhaps most impressive about them is how many weapons they have and how many different styles of play they can employ.

-Ohio U is another team that has a ton of experience back and who is capable of making a ton of noise this season.  They weren’t always consistent last year, but they were very strong down the stretch and had some other moments of greatness as well, particularly the near-upset of Illinois earlier in the year.  Given how they are more experienced and how well they played down the stretch, I think they will play at a high level more consistently this year.

-Toledo was the first place team a year ago, and while they don’t return everything they do return quite a bit.  Three starters are back and all were double digit scorers.  In addition to them they will add a couple of key transfers.  They’ve got a lot of weapons and will once again be a tough team to beat in this league.

-Kent State lost two of their top scorers, but four starters are back and they once again look to be dangerous.  The reason they aren’t picked closer to the top has more to do with how good Buffalo and Ohio U are than it does with any weaknesses within this program.

-Akron has three starters back, but they had some depth last year so they shouldn’t have too much trouble having guys step into new rolls.  Coach John Groce has done a tremendous job in his tenure at Akron so you don’t want to underestimate what this team can do.  Having said that, I don’t see them as being quite good enough to keep pace with the top three in this league.

-Bowling Green has the ingredients for a big year.  Four starters are back so the experience should help them, and they had a stretch late in the season where they really seemed to be playing well.  I do think we will see them take another step forward and think they are good enough to have some big moments this year.  I just don’t think they are quite good enough to consistently keep pace with the top three teams in this conference.

-Miami OH returns all five starters from a team that posted a winning record in conference play a year ago.  With that in mind, I think we’ll see them in the top half of the standings again this year and once again see them take a nice big step forward.

-Ball State is looking to replace some key pieces from last year.  They had a so-so season a year ago where they finished just under .500 in league play, and I think that’s about where they’ll end up again this year.

-Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Eastern Michigan are all lumped together toward the bottom of the league (at least that’s how the experts are forecasting it).  All have their work cut out for them.  Central Michigan lost all five starters and Eastern Michigan has just one starter back.  Western Michigan returns a little more in the way of experience, but after winning a total of just five games a year ago they’ll need to have those guys step up in a much bigger way if they want to be competitive this year.

-I keep waiting for Northern Illinois to improve as a program, and it looked like for a while they were going to.  They had back-to-back winning seasons and finished with 18 wins in 2020 before the COVID shutdown.  Last year they won just three games so they need to go back to the drawing board.

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