Hoops HD

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Mar 2

Posted on March 2, 2022 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES:

CLICK HERE for our CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK VIDEO NOTEBOOK: DAY 2

-After getting sidetracked in Colorado, Arizona once again looked like a #1 seed caliber team yesterday as they went into USC and blew them off the floor. Since it was a road game that followed a loss, and since they won so handily, I’d almost go so far to say it was one of their most impressive showings of the year.

-TCU knocked off Kansas yesterday 74-64, which should shoot them up the seedlist. Kansas has a lot of tier 1 wins, but they also have very few true road wins against teams that will likely be the better seeded team in the Round of 64, and they missed another chance to get a #1 seed defining level win last night. For that reason I continue to question whether or not they should be on the #1 line.

-Wisconsin held on to beat Purdue 70-67. Both are protected seeds, so it wasn’t much of a setback for the Boilers, but had they won it they would have had a strong case for a #1 seed themselves.

-Providence was without a key player and fell behind kind of big late in the first half at Villanova, but still fought their way back into it and were in a position to win in the final minute of the game. Despite the loss, considering that it was on the road at Villanova, and considering they were without a starter, I think I was more impressed with what Providence did yesterday than I have been at any other time. And, that’s saying A LOT because they have some VERY good wins this year.

-Ohio State is in a bit of a tailspin. They’ve now lost two straight games, and both were to team teams that are about a thousand miles away from the NIT, much less the NCAA. Nebraska beat them 78-70. While their seed will take a bit of a hit, I still think they’re a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but to say they’ve been playing well would be incorrect.

-Michigan blew Michigan State off the floor, and seeing as how they are on the bubble they really needed that. Not to mention, blowing out a rival always makes you feel good!

-VCU blew Saint Bonaventure off the floor, out of the gym, and into the sun. The final score was 74-51, but the game was over about ten minutes in. The Bonnies looked so bad that not only does it make me question why I ever thought they might belong in the field, but it’s making me question every good thing I’ve said about them for the past ten years or so. They got THWACKED!!!

-Boise State locked up first place in the Mountain West with their win against Nevada, and Florida escaped what would have been a very crippling loss at Vanderbilt.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-XAVIER AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Xavier has slid all the way down to the bubble, and if they lose this game it could knock them outside of it. A win should stabilize things somewhat, so this is a very pivotal late season game for Xavier.

-TEXAS A&M AT ALABAMA (SEC). Alabama is still within reach of a protected seed if they finish strong, but the are starting to feel more and more like a 5 or 6 seed. Either way, they’ll want to hold serve tonight.

-GEORETOWN AT SETON HALL (Big East). Seton Hall has won three in a row, appears to be a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament, and should stretch that out to four in a row tonight.

-NOTRE DAME AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). Notre Dame appears to be very much in the middle of bubble-land, so every game they play the rest of the way is going to have a pivotal feel to it, including this one on the road.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT IOWA STATE (Big 12). I think a win today virtually locks Iowa State into the field. They may be a lock already. This would get them to 8-9 in conference play with just one game remaining, and as strong as their resume is they should make it easily.

-GEORGE MASON AT DAVIDSON (Atlantic Ten). Davidson should remain inside the bubble so long as they’re able to hold serve in these last few regular season games.

-RUTGERS AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Indiana is coming off a much needed road win, and can polish up their resume a little more if they’re able to win this one tonight. Rutgers’ resume also needs quite a bit of polishing. There are some really good things on it, but another quality road win would make a huge difference for a team that looks to be right on the bubble.

-CONNECTICUT AT CREIGHTON (Big East). UConn appears to have a strong case for a protected seed, and a road win in a game like this will make it even stronger. Creighton appears to be on the right side of the bubble barring a complete and total collapse, and are really just playing for seeding.

-AUBURN AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Auburn is still a virtual lock for a protected seed and depending on how things play out they could still end up on the #1 line. They’ll need this one on the road, and while Mississippi State is nowhere near the field, they are 14-2 at home, so it’s still not an easy place to go and win.

-LSU AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Arkansas continues to climb the seedlist and is even making a strong case that they deserve a protected seed. They’re good enough to beat almost anyone at home. LSU is safely in, but could really shoot up the seedlist if they’re able get this one tonight. A loss isn’t likely to set them back at all, but a win would be a huge boost.

-MARQUETTE AT DEPAUL (Big East). Marquette has a really strong resume and has played a really tough schedule. This is a game that they should win, but don’t be surprised if it’s still a battle. DePaul has played a lot of teams tough.

-NC STATE AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Wake is probably inside the bubble, but if they want to stay there they really need hold serve in games like this. Their margin for error is very small. If anything I’d say they still have a little bit of work to do.

-MIAMI FL AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). I like this Miami team and think they’ll make the NCAA Tournament rather safely. Having said that, they really don’t want to stub their toes in a game like this.

-WYOMING AT UNLV (Mountain West). The Cowboys are looking to rebound from their loss to San Diego State, and they could be in for a test tonight. UNLV can be tough to beat at home. I think their resume is okay, but they may be starting to sweat just a little bit if they don’t get this win.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off

Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 2

Posted on March 1, 2022 by David Griggs

WELCOME SELECTION COMMITTEE MEMBERS!!! We are here to do all the work for you so you don’t have to!!

For the Hoops HD Survival Board – CLICK HERE

For the Conference Tournament Page with all the brackets, dates, and times – CLICK HERE

It was Opening Round Day in the ASun, Horizon League, and Patriot League, and we had a couple of thrilling finishes including an overtime in the Patriot League and Central Arkansas and Stetson coming down to the final seconds in the ASun. After that, we discuss all of Wednesday night’s action which includes the NEC Quarterfinals, and the Opening Rounds of the Big South and Ohio Valley.

For the audio only version, check out below:

NORTHEAST QUARTERFINALS:

BIG SOUTH OPENING ROUND:

OHIO VALLEY OPENING ROUND:

Posted in Championship Week Video Notebook, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged ASun, Horizon League, Patriot League | 1 Comment

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Mar 1st

Posted on March 1, 2022 by David Griggs

NEWS, NOTES, AND LINKS:

HAPPY MARCH MADNESS EVERYBODY!!! We’ve got EVERYTHING you need right here!! Hoops HD has been covering March since November!!!!

-For the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast, as well as Day 1 of the HOOPS HD VIDEO NOTEBOOK – CLICK HERE

-If you want to see who is a lock, who is under consideration, and who can only get in with an automatic bid, then check out the HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD. Managing this page one of the many things we do here at Hoops HD to assist the committee members – CLICK HERE

Our man JON TEITEL has gone crazy with content!!
-For his latest BRACKET PROJECTIONS – CLICK HERE
-For his interview with ABA Legend James Silas – CLICK HERE
-For Part 1 of his Conference Tournament Previews – CLICK HERE
-For Part 1 of his All-Conference Awards – CLICK HERE

-Baylor picked up another highly impressive road win as they went into a hostile environment at Texas, and played against a really good Texas team, and got the 68-61 win. They are once again knocking on the door for a #1 seed.

-Kansas State was right with Texas Tech until the very end, but couldn’t pull it out. K State has a lot of good wins on their resume, but they are now just 14-15 overall and I can’t imagine that the actual committee would select a team that’s below .500. I know they’ve said there isn’t a rule against it, and there isn’t, but…it has never happened before.

-San Diego State picked up what was easily their biggest win of the year as they knocked off Wyoming 73-66 on the road. I think they were squarely on the bubble prior to last night. I now think they are squarely inside of it. It was Wyoming’s first loss at home.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:

-PROVIDENCE AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Both of these teams will likely end up as protected seeds regardless of what happens, but Providence has a chance to get a win that’s so big that they could argue that they belong on the #1 line.

-TENNESSEE AT GEORGIA (SEC). It feels like Tennessee is close to locking up a protected seed and just needs to avoid bad losses. Like..Georgia, for instance.

-OLE MISS AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky still has a chance of ending up on the #1 line, but they pretty much need to win out in order to do it. The thing is, I think they’re good enough to win out, so…

-NEBRASKA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Ohio State is coming off of a somewhat surprising loss to Maryland, but they’re still in really good shape and will easily be in the top half of the bracket if they can hold serve in these last few games.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12). If Oklahoma has any chance at all at getting inside the bubble they need to win these last couple of games and avoid an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament.

-DUKE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC). Duke is sailing to a protected seed and shouldn’t have any trouble picking up another road win tonight.

-KANSAS AT TCU (Big 12). Kansas is within reach of a #1 seed, and this would be yet another really good road win if they can knock off a TCU team that looks like they could land in the top half of the bracket. It goes without saying that it’d be a really big win for TCU as well.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). Michigan State picked up a much needed win over the weekend over Purdue, which hopefully pulls them out of the slump they’re in. They should still easily land in the top half of the bracket. Michigan’s situation is a little more desperate as they are right on the bubble and need some big wins to help get them on the right side of it.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). This is a very big game as it appears that both teams are very close to the bubble. That makes this game a very high stakes opportunity for both of them.

-FLORIDA AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Florida is inside our bubble, but barely. A loss in a game like this could knock them out of it. They really need to get this one on the road tonight, which they should be able to do, but it won’t be a cakewalk.

-PURDUE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Both teams look to be solid protected seeds, and Purdue will have a case for a #1 seed if they can pick up a big time road win like this one. It’s more of a litmus test for both than it is a high stakes game for both. No matter what happens, both are locks not just to make the field, but getting close to being locks as protected seeds.

-CINCINNATI AT HOUSTON (American). Houston will go in to The Tournament on the first ballot so long as they avoid losses to teams outside the bubble the rest of the way. Teams like Cincinnati, for instance.

-LOUISVILLE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). Virginia Tech’s Tournament hopes are still barely flickering, and it goes without saying that if they want to get there they can’t lose a game like this.

-NEVADA AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). Boise State is likely a lock for the NCAA Tournament and is now just playing for seeding. They should be able to knock off Nevada at home.

-ARIZONA AT USC (Pac 12). Arizona can almost assuredly lock up a #1 seed if they can win this one on the road tonight, but they are coming off a road loss at Colorado, so they are in a bit of a rebound mode. USC is locked into the field and is playing only to improve their seed, which if they were to win this one, it would improve a lot.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off

The Hoops HD Report (and Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 1) – Feb 28

Posted on February 28, 2022 by David Griggs

It’s the March Madness Eve edition of the Hoops HD Report!! We look back at a very crazy weekend where seven teams in the top ten all lost all on the same day. We look at all the major conferences and discuss whether or not Providence would deserve consideration for a #1 seed if they’re able to win at Villanova. We look at Oregon, VCU, and San Diego State trying to play their way into the field, and more…

We finish with Day 1 of our Championship Week Video Notebook.

We’d also like to welcome all the Selection Committee Members for the Championship Week Video Notebook!!

Check out the HOOPS HD SURVIVAL BOARD, which shows who is a lock, who is on the bubble, and who needs the auto-bid

Also, don’t miss our CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PAGE, which has brackets, times, and viewing information for all 32 conference tourney

Finally, be sure to keep an eye on our most recent BRACKET PROJECTIONS

Here is the audio only version:

ASUN OPENING ROUND:

HORIZON LEAGUE OPENING ROUND:

PATRIOT LEAGUE OPENING ROUND:

Posted in Championship Week Video Notebook, Hoops HD Report, News and Notes, Podcasts, Videocasts | Tagged ASun, C, Horizon League, Patriot League | 1 Comment

Happy Anniversary!: HoopsHD interviews ABA legend James Silas

Posted on February 28, 2022 by Jon Teitel

James Silas is living proof that you do not need to be a D-1 superstar to end up as a pro basketball superstar. As as senior at at Stephen F. Austin (which at the time was an NAIA school) he led the Lumberjacks to a 29-1 record, scored 30.7 PPG, and was named an All-American. After joining the ABA he was named an All-Star in both 1975/1976 and in 1997 was named to the ABA All-Time Team. San Antonio realized how special he was a decade earlier when his lucky #13 became the 1st number ever retired by the Spurs. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with James about his nifty nicknames and being 1 of the best FT shooters in ABA history. Today marks the 38th anniversary of James’ jersey retirement on February 28, 1984, so we take this time to honor his life/legacy.

You had several nicknames including “The Snake”, “Captain Late”, and “The Late Mr. Silas”: which 1 did you enjoy the most? Probably “Captain Late” because of the meaning it had: the guys gave it to me for a positive reason (because he always seemed to play his best in clutch time). “Snake” was also my dad’s nickname so that 1 stuck with me the most.

You were a 2-time NAIA All-American at Stephen F. Austin and as a senior you led your team to the NAIA tourney semifinals with a 29-0 record before a 5-PT loss to 2-time-defending-champ Kentucky State: how close did you come to going undefeated? We had 5 seniors on that squad and they all got drafted. We had a center named George Johnson who had been hurt for half of the year. We changed the lineup for the Kentucky State game and it broke the rhythm up…plus the guy he guarded scored around 35 PTS!

You scored 30.7 PPG that year: what is the secret to being a great scorer? Hard work! Back in the day you could always play 1-on-1 or 2-on-2 since we usually did not have enough for a full 5-on-5 game. I would never let anyone beat me 1-on-1 so when we went 5-on-5 it was easy for me: I am glad that my coach believed in me.

In the spring of 1972 you were picked in the 5th round of the NBA draft by Houston, but after getting waived you signed with the Dallas Chaparrals and were named to the ABA All-Rookie team: how did it feel to be waived, and how were you able to make such a smooth transition from college to the pros? When I was drafted there was a player named Johnny Egan who was supposed to retire that year but he changed his mind. They gave somebody else a no-cut contract and had some other great players like future Hall-of-Famer Calvin Murphy so they did not have room for me. I played 1 scrimmage with Houston against Dallas on my college court and I put on a show. They told me on the ride back that they would have to let me go and the next morning Dallas coach Babe McCarthy called my agent and I had my 1st practice that day. Babe had that wide-open game that fit what I did. Once I proved what I could do as a rookie I never looked back.

The Chaparrals moved to San Antonio the following season, where you spent the following 8 years with the Spurs: how did it feel to switch cities by moving farther down I-35, and what did it mean to you to when your #13 became the 1st # ever retired by San Antonio in 1984? I was glad to be playing pro basketball but the city of Dallas was Cowboys-crazy: we could not even give away tickets to get people to come to our games! The fans in San Antonio went crazy for the Spurs because there was no other pro team in the city: we were their heart and soul and we all became family. It is still not the biggest market but we could always hold our own: they later had to raise the roof at the HemisFair Arena to add some more seats. It took me about a year to realize what being the 1st player to have his # retired meant. It was huge and no matter how many titles the team wins that will remain important to all of my friends/family and heartwarming to me.

In Game 7 of the 1979 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Washington you scored 17 PTS but Bob Dandridge scored 37 PTS including the series-winning shot with 8 seconds left as the Bullets became only the 3rd team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 series deficit: do you think that Elvin Hayes should have been whistled for jumping into you at the buzzer, and where does that rank among the most devastating losses of your career? When you play the game at that level it is hard to hold onto 1 particular play. I moved on…but if we played it over then I think that we would win! There are so many tough games/opponents that you just have to forget it and move on.

Your 85.7 career FT% remains #5 in ABA history: what is the key to making FTs? You just said it: free. It is the only time during a 48-minute game when nobody is guarding you. You have to work at it: it is a mental thing but once you figure it out then it is easy. I never thought that I would miss so I tried to take advantage of it.

You were known for being a fabulous 4th quarter scorer: was that due to changing the offensive strategy, or your endurance, or George Gervin getting double-teamed, or other? I remember 1 game against Portland where Gervin had scored about 40 PTS. There were about 9 seconds left and it came down to the final shot: Coach Bob Bass called a timeout and said that we would run a play for Ice…but Gervin declined and said to run the play for me instead. We had a 1-4 play that was hard to guard because I would just read where the double-team might come from. If nobody came to help then I would make 1 hard move and either score or get fouled and make the FTs, and it became part of our offense at the end of every single quarter. It was 1 of the best things that Bob did for me because we had to get Ice/Larry Kenon/Billy Paultz their shots as well.

In 1997 you were named to the ABA All-Time Team: where does that rank among the highlights of your career? Just look at all of the guys who played in the ABA and were selected to the Hall of Fame (Louie Dampier/Charlie Scott/David Thompson/etc.): if I am mentioned as 1 of the best guards in ABA history then that is huge.

You run a summer basketball camp with your son Xavier, who has played pro basketball for most of the past decade: what makes your camp different from other camps, and who is the best athlete in the family? We came up with the idea of “like father, like son”: it is hard to find a pair like us who have both played in the league. We do not do it for numbers: it means a lot if we can teach the kids something and work with them until they get it. I know who is best! I scored more than 12,000 PTS in my career but never made a 3-PT shot because I took the shots that I wanted to take and could get to wherever I wanted to. Back then it was a come-from-behind shot but now players take threes all of the time.

Posted in Interviews | Tagged James Silas, Stephen F. Austin | 1 Comment

Conference Tourney Previews (Part 1 of 2)

Posted on February 28, 2022 by Jon Teitel

HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for the 13 conference tourneys getting underway this week/weekend. Tweet us if you have any comments, and check back next weekend for his picks concerning the 19 other conference tourneys.

America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-12
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Hartford (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2015
Seeding: 3 of past 8 champs were #4-seed
The Catamounts appear to be head and shoulders above everyone else in this conference this year and made the title game 4 straight years from 2016-2019 so you have to like their chances. Since losing at Providence in early-December Coach John Becker has gone 18-1 with only a 1-PT OT loss on the road on Valentine’s Day. Since the higher seed will host each tourney game in which they play, Vermont cannot wait to welcome teams to Patrick Gymnasium where they have not lost a single home game this season. Experience counts in March and a team that starts 5 seniors knows the importance of playing your best basketball at the end of the season.

Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Jacksonville State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 1-8
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Liberty (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Liberty has won this tourney 3 years in a row
Seeding: 10 of past 11 champs were top-2 seed
It would be easy to pick Liberty to win its 4th straight tourney but the Gamecocks served notice that they are for real in late-January with a 10-PT win at Lynchburg. They win a lot of games via the 3-PT shot, as their 39.3 3P% is #3 in the nation. Coach Ray Harper has plenty of postseason success to rely on: he won a pair of D-2 titles in 1999/2001, followed by back-to-back NAIA titles in 2007/2008. He just better hope that none of his tourney games end up being a FT-shooting contest, as his opponents this year have made a 4th-best-in-the-nation 77.8 FT% Give me Liberty or give me death…on 2nd thought just give me Jacksonville State!

Big South tourney predicted champ: Longwood (#1 seed)
Dates: March 2-6
Location: Charlotte, NC
2021 tourney champ: Winthrop (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Winthrop has won this tourney 3 times in past 5 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were top-2 seed
History says that Winthrop will win its 4th tourney in the past 6 years, but Longwood says otherwise. I am still unsure how Coach Griff Aldrich flipped the script after 3 straight losing seasons but the Lancers finished 1st in the North Division and have lost exactly 1 game since Christmas. The X-factor for this team is their health, as Justin Hill/Leslie Nkereuwem both missed a pair of games earlier this month due to injuries. Hill scored 29 PTS in their 4-PT win over Winthrop in January so if he brings his A-game then they should be able to lance the Eagles

CAA tourney predicted champ: Towson (#2 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: Washington, DC
2021 tourney champ: Drexel (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2017
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 4 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel/St. Francis NY) who have never made the NCAA tourney. Towson has lost 3 games since early-December and all 3 losses were by 5 PTS or less. Coach Pat Skerry only won 4 games last season but has made a complete turnaround this year by winning 23 games (with 1 game left vs. Delaware on Monday). Each of his top-8 scorers are juniors/seniors so he has nothing to worry about when it comes to veteran leadership. The Tigers did blow a 12-PT lead to UNC-Wilmington at home last month but they had more AST/BLK/3PM than the Seahawks so as long as they can get to the FT line then they have a good shot at winning their 1st-ever CAA tourney title.

Horizon tourney predicted champ: Purdue Fort Wayne (#2 seed)
Dates: March 1-8
Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN
2021 tourney champ: Cleveland State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Northern Kentucky has won this tourney 3 times in past 5 years
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
It is hard to NOT pick the Norse (who have won this tourney 3 times in 4 years) or the Vikings (who are the #1 seed), but it is also hard to overlook the ridiculous run that the Mastodons are on. Coach Jon Coffman finished January with back-to-back losses on the road, but since then he has won 9 in a row including a triple-OT win over Cleveland State after overcoming a 14-PT 2nd half deficit! They start 5 seniors including 5’8” PG Damian Chong-Qui, who already showed that he can deliver in March when he scored 14 PTS in last year’s 1st 4 as a player at Mt. St. Mary’s.

MVC tourney predicted champ: Missouri State (#2 seed)
Dates: March 3-6
Location: St. Louis, MO
2021 tourney champ: Loyola Chicago (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs since 2018 are Bradley/Loyola-Chicago
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
#1 seeds have not fared well in this tourney so instead of Northern Iowa I will go with the Bears. They already have wins over Bradley/Drake/Loyola-Chicago and only lost to Northern Iowa by a single point last month. Their FT shooting will keep them in any game as their 79.6 FT% is #7 in the nation, and JR G Isiaih Mosley exploded for 40+ PTS in multiple games last month. Coach Dana Ford has never made the NCAA tourney but finally won more than 20 games for the 1st time in his career so this might be the year that he gets there.

NEC predicted champ: Bryant (#1 seed)
Dates: February 28-March 8
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Mt. St. Mary’s (#4 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 champs in past 14 years are Fairleigh Dickinson/Long Island/Mount St. Mary’s/Robert Morris
Seeding: each of past 22 champs were top-4 seed
Even though there have only been 4 different champs during the past 13 years, Bryant/Wagner have separated themselves from the rest of this field. Just a few days ago Wagner was looking like the best pick after beating Bryant in OT last month…but the Seahawks stubbed all of their toes down the stretch by losing 3 of their final 5 games. In contrast, since that OT loss to begin the month of January the Bulldogs have won 13 of 14 and avenged their loss to Wagner by winning the rematch at home on Saturday. Coach Jared Grasso’s team is not that great from behind the arc (30.7 3P%), but instead of kissing their chances goodbye they just need to get the ball to the leading scorer in the nation (Peter Kiss, who is scoring 25.1 PPG).

OVC predicted champ: Murray State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 2-5
Location: Evansville, IN
2021 tourney champ: Morehead State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
This is technically a 3-team race between Murray State/Morehead State/Belmont with each having a legitimate chance to win it all. However, even though Belmont has been in the title game during each of the past 4 years, the Racers’ only loss since Thanksgiving is at Auburn and they beat both of the other top contenders by double-digits last month. Coach Matt McMahon went 13-13 last year but is dominating this year by defending the 3-PT line as his team’s 29.7 3P% allowed is top-25 in the nation. Big man KJ Williams just set a career-high a couple of weeks ago with 39 PTS in a win at Tennessee State, and if you double-team him then Tevin Brown will make you pay from long range as his 39.3 3P% is best in the conference.

Patriot predicted champ: Colgate (#1 seed)
Dates: March 1-9
Location: Campus sites
2021 tourney champ: Colgate (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Colgate has made title game in each of past 4 years
Seeding: each of past 5 champs were top-3 seed
Navy is the sentimental favorite: it would be quite a sight to see the Midshipmen win this tourney for the 1st time since 1998. However, my own sentiment lies with my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, who has been in the title game during each of the past 4 years. The play “Hamilton” was a smash hit on Broadway and the home-cooking that the Raiders will get while playing each of their postseason games in the city of Hamilton as the higher seed should pay similar dividends. They were 4-10 in early-January but have looked great since then with only a single loss on the road by 4 PTS thanks to a 39.1 3P% that is #5 in the nation. Few things keep a coach calmer in March than a SR PG and Colgate has 1 of the best in the business in Nelly Cummings (14.6 PPG/3.4 APG/36.8 3P%/82.1 FT%).

SoCon predicted champ: Samford (#3 seed)
Dates: March 4-7
Location: Asheville, NC
2021 tourney champ: UNC-Greensboro (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 3 different champs in past 3 years
Seeding: UNCG has made title game in 4 of past 5 years
Chattanooga seemed to be running away with this league, especially after sweeping Furman a couple of weeks ago, but then pulled a 180 with consecutive home losses in mid-February. In contrast, Samford started conference play 1-6 but has won 9 of 11 since then to become the hottest team in the conference. Coach Bucky McMillan only won 6 games in his debut season last year but knows exactly what it takes to win in March: as a high school coach in Alabama won a trio of 7A championships, a pair of 6A championships, and was named national boys basketball COY in 2018. He does not have a single SR among his top-7 scorers, but he does have a transfer from Florida in Ques Glover who has turned into the best PG in the league (19.1 PPG/4.4 APG).

Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2021 tourney champ: Oral Roberts (#4 seed)
Fun fact: North Dakota State has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were #4 seed
The Jackrabbits owned this tourney from 2012-2018 when they won it 5 times in 7 years but they have not even made the title game during each of the past 3 years. That should change next month because since losing at Missouri State in mid-December they have won 18 in a row. There is no secret to their success: they are the best 3-PT shooting team in the nation at 44.3 3P%. Most mid-major teams rely on upperclassmen but the X-factor for South Dakota State just might be FR Zeke Mayo. He went to high school less than 1 mile from Phog Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, KS, but has been a great fit in Brookings: he has not lost a single game since entering the starting lineup right before Christmas and has only missed 2 FTs during his college career!

Sun Belt predicted champ: Georgia State (#3 seed)
Dates: March 3-7
Location: Pensacola, FL
2021 tourney champ: Appalachian State (#4 seed)
Fun fact: Georgia State has made title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were not #1 seed
The Panthers began this month 2-5 in conference play but won each of their final 7 regular season games to turn things around at the right time. This tournament has not been kinds to #1 seeds, so even though Texas State has won 9 in a row the pick is Georgia State. Coach Rob Lanier has finished with a winning record in each of his 3 years in Atlanta and is getting it done with defense despite allowing 37.9 3P%. He starts a bunch of juniors/seniors including a trio of guards who do a little of everything: Kane Williams/Corey Allen/Justin Roberts are each averaging more than 11 PPG/3 RPG/2 APG.

WCC predicted champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Dates: March 3-8
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2021 tourney champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 18 titles in past 24 years and finished 2nd each of the other 6 times
Seeding: 21 of past 23 champs were top-2 seed
While St. Mary’s deserves a ton of credit for pulling off a great upset on Saturday night, Coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 21 straight NCAA tourney appearances (not counting the COVID cancellation), 21 regular season titles, 17 conference tourney titles, and a 14-time conference COY. The Bulldogs have lost exactly 4 regular season conference games during the past 6 YEARS so the smart money in Vegas is not on the rest of the field. They have a senior who can score from inside (Drew Timme: 58.3 FG%), a freshman who can shoot from outside (Chet Holmgren: 43.8 3P%), and a SR PG who runs the offense to perfection (Andrew Nembhard: 5.5 APG).

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