Hoops HD

This week, it is time for staff member John Stalica to make his initial bracket projection of the season. This is not a guess at what the NCAA Selection Committee will do; that is the prerogative of members like Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller.

And without further ado, here is the bracket:

First Four Out – BYU, Oregon, SMU, VCU
Others Considered – Dayton, Virginia, Memphis, Michigan, Santa Clara, Belmont, Oklahoma, West Virginia

COMMENTS FROM JOHN:

– I’m not going to change the position of Auburn and Gonzaga based on the Tigers’ loss at Arkansas – there is more than enough good on the bone of Auburn to stay atop the overall bracket at this time. I am also becoming more and more of a believer in Kentucky as I currently have them as a #1 seed and #3 overall. They not only have wins at Kansas and Alabama along with a home win against Tennessee and a neutral-court win against North Carolina, the Wildcats are beating them into submission.

– We thought injuries might eventually catch up to Houston, but it’s not inconceivable that they would have been expected to have at least a couple of losses in the American at this point. Losing at SMU would have been forgivable, but losing at home to Memphis this year isn’t indicative of what a protected seed should do, especially with teams like Texas, Ohio State and Tennessee breathing down their necks.

– Wyoming has now cracked the Top 25 and have a seed consistent with such a ranking right now. They could potentially elevate their seed higher should they be able to win at arch-rival Colorado State in a week. Colorado State also had a big win at Boise State to help solidify their profile and people across the nation were partying last night!

– I know the Puppet loves to skewer North Carolina for their lack of Quad 1 wins (and deservedly so), but at some point I do have to at least reward them for winning all the games they’re supposed to be winning and not taking on any bad losses. Frankly, I’m getting more offended by Iowa’s resume and bloated NET – they still have no Quad 1 wins and actually have a pair of Quad 2 losses (and a loss at a fading Iowa State team).

– Don’t adjust your glasses, you read it correctly. Kansas State is in this field. Their overall record is barely passable, but then again so are Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Wildcats are actually 5-4 away from home and that includes wins at Texas, TCU and Iowa State among others. They’d be in even more fields had they beaten Kansas at home a couple weeks ago.

– And yes, I’m also on the Rutgers bandwagon after the Scarlet Knights have put together a 3-game winning streak against Top 25 foes. They took down Michigan State and Ohio State at The RAC and won for the first time at Wisconsin. The win against the Badgers gives Rutgers a 6-3 record against Quad 1 teams, yet they’re an atrocious 9-6 against Quads 2, 3 and 4. They should be dead on arrival, yet I can’t justify putting a team like Oregon (losing to Cal – really?) or BYU ahead of them anymore.

– On a humorous sidenote, both Purdue and Loyola-Chicago should be relieved that the NCAA moved the first and second-round games from Cincinnati down the road to Indianapolis after a deal to renovate Heritage Bank Center (formerly USBank Arena) failed to surface. Kentucky might have wished for Cincinnati instead upon seeing their potential 2nd-round opponent.

STAFF COMMENTS

From Chad:

– Although I firmly believe that Arizona belongs on the top seed line over Kentucky, I may be more offended by the choice of Auburn #1 overall rather than Gonzaga.  The Zags have more Tier 1A wins, more Tier 1 wins away from home and are, quite frankly, a better team.

– Indiana is over-seeded on John’s 8 line.  The Hoosiers have lost 3 in a row and don’t have any road wins of note.  Further, they have a losing record vs Quad 1 (2-5) and Quads 1 and 2 combined (4-8).  Beating Purdue at home can only prop a team up for so long — sooner or later this team needs a quality road win.

– Speaking of teams without quality wins, Wake Forest does not belong on the 9 line.  Or the 10 line.  Or the 11 line.  Or the 12.  Or the 13, 14, 15 or 16.  They belong in the NIT.  This team has no wins of note, and (unlike North Carolina) has two losses to teams that are nowhere near the Board.

– John has Creighton on the 11 line.  Most bracketologists have them right near the cut-line right now.  I don’t understand that.  This team beat Villanova and won at UConn and Marquette.  Those are three teams way above them, and 2 of those 3 wins were on the road.  That easily makes up for a bad home loss to Arizona State.  I would have them on the 9 line, at least.

– Kansas State is a dangerous team to play, but they do not belong in right now.  The wins are amazing, but 13-11 overall has to count for something.  The Wildcats belong “on the board”, but they better beat West Virginia tonight if they want to be seriously considered.

– Why is Toledo on the 12 line and a First Four game in the 13 line?  Toledo is a good team, and very dangerous, but they do not have the profile to be ranked above at-large teams. (Note from John – I forgot to note I had to do a swap between the play-in game and Toledo – the Rockets would nominally have been my top 13-seed)

– Saint Louis in the field is an awful pick.  They won at Boise State but have two bad losses.  Their only other win against the field is an Iona team at home that counts as Tier 3 right now.  The Billikens are about 10-12 teams out on my board.

– Rutgers — I am an RU grad and I love the Quad 1 wins.  I want them in.  I actually had them as my top team out this morning.  But, I will take John’s argument on my Scarlet Knights.

– Where is Belmont in this field?  If you want a team that is not from a power conference (Saint Louis) as your last team in, take the Bruins!!!

– I would have BYU and Oklahoma in as well, though there are strong cases against each (though not as much of one against BYU).  Oregon, SMU, Virginia, Michigan and Memphis are all close too.

– In sum, John did a decent job, but he quite honestly lost almost all merit when he got to his final teams in and put K State and Saint Louis in the field.  There are so many better choices.   However, because he put Rutgers in, I grade him an A+.

FROM DAVID:

-I agree that Rutgers belongs in the field, and should perhaps even be inside the First Four.  I don’t know if the real committee would put them in or not, but they should.  They’ve got some warts, but they have more good on their resume than several teams that are likely to go in on the first ballot.

-I don’t understand why anyone thinks Wake or North Carolina are any good.  I just think the rest of the world has gone crazy.

-I’m not crazy about the Kansas State pick either, but they make more sense than Wake and UNC.  The problem is that Stalica took all three.