Hoops HD

This week, we return to our colleague John Stalica who will be filling out the weekly bracket projection as we wind up the regular season. This is not like Jon Teitel or Rocco Miller who both attempt to guess what the NCAA Selection Committee will do, but rather his own personal feelings as to who should be selected.

And without further ado:

COMMENTS FROM JOHN:

– It will be interesting to see where I differ from the rest of the staff without being affected by groupthink. That said, I think we are all in agreement right now that Gonzaga is the top overall seed and that teams like Baylor, Illinois and Michigan are all locked into the 1-line. Championship week could slightly affect the order of the latter three, but not by much.

– Villanova didn’t exactly get off to a great start without Collin Gillespie (and now Justin Moore?) against Providence, but they rarely struggle in the Big East tournament. That said, either a desperate Seton Hall/St. John’s winner in the semifinals could be a trap for them.

– I also give Arkansas a bit of an edge over Houston for the #2 line, and that is a testament to the Razorbacks catching fire in SEC play. Maybe a little undue punishment for the Coogs losing to East Carolina, but those are the types of landmines that teams in the American occasionally face.

– Oklahoma looked like a team that had a really great January and a really rocky finish. Not an ideal #8 seed for a top-seeded team to face.

– My First Four teams out are Michigan State, Drake, Ole Miss and SMU. At least Drake will have a window to try to schedule someone this year when they would normally not be able to do so. Boise State is my very last team in, but they are on very thin ice when Sparty might be able to overtake them with at least one win in the B1G Tournament.

– Other teams considered were Syracuse, Seton Hall, Duke and Memphis. No more, no less.

COMMENTS FROM THE STAFF:

FROM CHAD:

– I would like to welcome John back to the bracket submissions and back to being wrong.  I will start all the way at the top.  With what Baylor did this week (beating Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and West Virginia), I believe they are #1 overall now.  Short of a bad loss in the Big 12 quarterfinals, I don’t think the Zags can ever catch them.

– I would drop Villanova all the way down to a 4 seed with the Gillespie injury and their proof that they cannot play without him.  Their profile is better than a 4 seed, but their current team is not even that good.  A run in the Big East Tournament can change my mind, but they have to prove it on the court.

– USC and LSU on the 5 line?  I’m not sure what teams John has been watching this season.  USC’s only wins of note are a neutral court win over BYU and a sweep of UCLA.  UCLA is an 11 seed for John.  You need to do a lot more than that to be on the border of a protected seed.  LSU has a home wins over Arkansas and Tennessee which are good, a road win at Mizzou and three losses to non-tournament teams.  They are a lock, but an 8 seed at best.

– Missouri and Oklahoma are the two teams that could be on the 5 line.  Both have profiles that blow LSU and USC out of the water.  They have not been playing great the past two weeks, but the overall strength is clearly there.  Oklahoma all the way down on the 8 line is just WRONG.

– Utah State is a 10 seed according to John.  Utah State is my 10th team out of the field.  The best thing they did away from home was split a pair of games at UNLV.  I honestly don’t think they have a shot at a bid unless they are in the MWC title game.

– Saint Louis is not there in my opinion either.  I will take Drake over them very easily.  Even though Drake will not play a game this week because they hit the maximum number of permitted regular season games.

– Leaving Michigan State out make ZERO sense in any rational world.  Not only would I have the Spartans in, I would have them wearing white in the first round.    Their resume has gone from bad to amazing in just two weeks.  Three top 10 NET wins will do that.  All three were at home, but they have quality road wins at Duke and Indiana, two teams that were on the board until the past week.  Sparty is not only in, but should be a LOCK now.

FROM DAVID:

-I’ll start with something I mostly agree with.  Louisville is a fringe bubble team at best.  Everyone seems to be overvaluing them, and because of that the committee will likely overvalue them as well.  I think the First Four is where they belong, and perhaps not even there.

-Chad kind of covered Oklahoma already.  I like them a lot more than the #8 line, and I bet a #1 seed would not be happy to see them in the Round of 32.

-I also concur that Villanova isn’t likely the same since the injury.  I would have them about a line lower.