This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly Hoops HD Staff Bracket. This is NOT a forecast of what the field will be come March, but merely a checkpoint as to what teams have accomplished at this point.
And here is the bracket below:
First Four Out: Arizona State, Nebraska, Xavier, Wake Forest
Worth A Look: BYU, SMU, North Texas, UC-San Diego, Bradley, George Mason, Indiana
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– Auburn and Duke are entrenched in the top 2 seeds right now, but Alabama still has a potential path to get even higher. Iowa State had a tough loss at Arizona on Monday, and Alabama is coming off of a win at Mississippi State earlier this week. Duke might have to potentially run the table in the ACC to remain on the 1-line if top-tier teams in the SEC continue to beat top-notch competition within the conference.
– Maryland has gone from a team that was potentially near the cut line to a team that is now fighting for a Top-4 seed. Wins over UCLA, Wisconsin along with road wins at Illinois and Indiana are helping immensely.
– Connecticut has been leaking oil ever since the Liam McNeeley injury, but he should be back in the lineup shortly for the Huskies. Woe to whatever #1 seed draws them in the 2nd round if a seed like this holds up for the Huskies. (And imagine a road to the Final Four for Duke potentially going through UConn, Maryland AND North Carolina)
– While there is a concerted effort by the Selection Committee to keep teams close to Dayton after their First Four games, the presence of Ohio State in a First Four is really problematic with three B1G teams on the 6-line. I do not foresee the committee bumping the OSU/Carolina winner down a seedline just to keep them close to home.
– There are a few other potential home court disadvantages that altered a few matchups: I kept Yale out of the Providence subregion and I also had to keep Cleveland State out of Cleveland against Tennessee. (Keep in mind that the MAC (not Cleveland State) is the host school this year.) Morehead State is also another team that was not potentially placed in Lexington given that they’re only about 60 miles away – it wouldn’t have prevented them from playing a team like Louisville or Tennessee, but Auburn/Alabama might be a bridge too far.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’m a little surprised that there isn’t more love for Clemson. I know their profile doesn’t top out that high, but the way they’ve been playing seems to indicate they’d be a few lines higher than an 8 seed.
-UC Irvine on the 12 line is probably where the real committee would have them, but I actually like them a little more than that. I would have them around the 10 line or so.
-Saint Mary’s on the 9 line is interesting. I think they’re a lot better than that, but also get that their profile doesn’t show it. At least not yet. I think they’ll move up quite a bit between now and March.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
-I agree with Stalica’s protected seeds, but I think there is a strong case to move Houston up to the 2 line (they are 9-0 in Big 12 play) and maybe Iowa State down there as well. The Florida Gators would be my fourth #1 seed as of today — but given the way the SEC is stacked, that may change in less than 24 hours.
-I had championed a solid seed for West Virginia earlier in the year, but I am no longer on that bandwagon. The Mountaineers have lost 3 straight. including games to Arizona State and Kansas State. This team is sinking fast, down to only 7-7 against the top 3 tiers and 5-7 against the top 2. They may deserve to be in the 7/10 game, but should probably be the 10 seed.
-Clemson, on the other hand, I believe to be way under-seeded by Stalica. The Tigers are 17-4 overall and 11-4 against the top three tiers. They really do not have any bad losses, and their win over Kentucky is looking better and better by the day. I would have them several seed lines higher.
-I agree with Griggs (begrudgingly) that St Mary’s should be seeded higher. There may not be any GREAT wins on their profile, but this team looks like one of the top 20, and maybe even one of the top 16, teams in the nation when I watch them play.
-North Carolina does not deserve to be in the field right now. Several teams that Stalica left out simply have better profiles, including Arizona State, Wake Forest, BYU, and (I would even argue) North Texas. That entire list is a coin flip in my mind, and I would probably choose Arizona State today, but I do not even believe the Tar Heels are even among the top four teams out right now. They have one win against a tournament team and 9 losses overall. 9-9 against the top three tiers and only 5-9 against the top two just does not cut it for me.
-Way down at the bottom of the bracket, I do not think the Central Connecticut should be going to Dayton. The Blue Devils have a handful of bad losses, but their wins at UMass and at St. Joe’s are better than several teams that Stalica ranked above them.
-All in all, I think John did a solid job with this bracket, and I did have to stretch a bit to find stuff to disagree with — but this wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed!!!
-Nebraska snapped a rather long losing streak and got a surprise home win over Illinois in overtime 80-74. Illinois is very inconsistent. When they’re good, they look like they can beat just about anyone, but they’re not always good and they weren’t good last night.
-UCLA IS looking good. They absolutely clobbered Oregon last night 78-50. Whatever it was that was wrong with them is no longer wrong with them.
-A few UTR surprises. Eastern Kentucky went on the road and won at Lipscomb, and South Dakota State went on the road and beat rival North Dakota State. UC Irvine needed overtime to get past their rivals on the road at Long Beach State, but held on 80-75. A loss in this game would have all but crushed any chances of them making the NCAA Tournament without having to win the conference tournament.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-YALE AT PRINCETON (Ivy League). This game isn’t likely to impact the bracket or the bubble, but these are the two best teams in the Ivy league and both are potentially dangerous in the Round of 64 if one of them wins the auto-bid.
-DAYTON AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten, Arch Baron Cup). This game isn’t likely to impact the bracket either, but the Arch Baron Cup is BIGGER than the NCAA Tournament!! This is the most heated rivalry in all of sports in all of human history!! Tune in!!!
-AKRON AT KENT STATE (MAC). Kent State probably won’t get inside the bubble even if they win out, but they are playing really well now, are unbeaten in conference play, and have their big rivals at home tonight.
-INDIANA AT PURDUE (Big Ten). This is a rivalry game, but it’s also a huge mismatch. Purdue appears to be cruising toward a protected seed and Indiana appears to be cruising toward the NIT.
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-And, what you REALLY need to check out are the Hoops HD Team Sheets and Def Con Rating!! – CLICK HERE
-Alabama added another big win to their already long lost of big wins as they knocked off Mississippi State on the road 88-84. This is Alabama’s 5th win away from home against a team that could potentially end up as a protected seed, and three of those were true road wins. That is simply a remarkable season!
-Houston sprinted out to a big lead against West Virginia, then played with their food for a little bit, but still held on to win 63-49. Houston has a back-loaded schedule and is now starting to pick up the really high caliber wins that can land them on the 1 or 2 line come March.
-Wisconsin, who needed a big road win to help boost up their resume, couldn’t get it done last night at Maryland as the Terps won 76-68. Maryland is on a bit of a run. Prior to this win last night they had knocked off Indiana and Illinois on the road.
-UConn slept through their alarm last night, and actually trailed DePaul at home for much of the game, but finally woke up and held on to win 72-61.
-Start paying attention to Drake. They are now 19-2 and beat a pretty good Northern Iowa team rather handily last night. I think this is a team that, if they can keep this up, can make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tournament. Them and UC Irvine (who plays tonight) are both inside our bubble right now.
-Bradley was another team we were watching closely, but they were blown out, at home, by UIC. That’s gonna leave a mark! And it probably means that if Bradley loses any game between now and the conference tournament final that they’ll need to win that last conference tournament game in order to make it.
-Creighton continues to string together wins as they held off a Xavier team that doesn’t have the best overall profile, but who had been playing well lately. The Jays prevailed 86-77.
-Saint Mary’s game at Santa Clara was just nuts. SMC was down 24-22, then went on a 30-0 run to seem to blow the game completely open. Santa Clara did come back to make it respectable, but SMC got the win on the road 67-54.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-OHIO STATE AT PENN STATE (Big Ten). Ohio State is right on the bubble, but their resume is really flimsy. This is the kind of road game they need to be able to win. Penn State has shown signs of being good, but has lost six of their last seven. What makes them potentially dangerous is that many of those were close games against really good teams.
-ILLINOIS AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Nebraska has completely skidded off the road. While Illinois has been inconsistent, they’ve also looked like a Final Four caliber team on certain nights. They should be able to pick up a road win tonight.
-MEMPHIS AT TULANE (American). Tulane has come on strong in conference play and they’ve improved throughout the year. This is still a game that Memphis should absolutely win, but Tulane does get to play a showcase game at home and their fans should be up for it.
-UC IRVINE AT LONG BEACH STATE (Big West). This is the Black and Blue Rivalry!!! Having said that, while you can’t completely dismiss the rivalry factor, UC Irvine is clearly the better team and should roll through this one. If the Eaters win out they should end up inside the bubble.
-OREGON AT UCLA (Big Ten). These two are long-time conference foes! They’re short time Big Ten foes, but long time conference foes!! Ever since Mick Cronin had his little meltdown, UCLA has been undeniably better. They’re at home tonight against an Oregon team that appears to be on track for a protected seed and has played very well on the road, so I’m kind of anxious to see how this one comes out.
Cleveland State (16-6, 10-1) at Purdue-Fort Wayne (15-7, 8-3) – 9:00 PM ET (ESPNU)
Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day goes to Fort Wayne, Indiana for a battle between Horizon League contenders Cleveland State and the hometown PFW Mastodons. The Vikings of Cleveland State are on fire right now with a 12-game winning streak overall and are now two games ahead of both Fort Wayne and Milwaukee in the Horizon League standings. Chase Robinson had 21 points for Cleveland State in their 81-66 win against cellar-dweller Green Bay.
After a tough loss against Northern Kentucky to begin the month, the Mastodons have won five of their last six games to vault themselves into second place; only a loss at Oakland in that period has prevented them from outright second place and a potential game for a first-place tie. Following tonight, the Mastodons travel to Milwaukee – they can either entrench themselves further up the standings or make a bigger chasm for Cleveland State and the rest of the league.
Tonight’s feature conference is the Coastal Athletic, where William & Mary continues to string together wins and remain at the top of the standings. Their unique style is fun to watch, and apparently difficult to defend. Charleston, UNC Wilmington, and Towson are right on their heels, though, and we take a look at what should be an exciting upcoming week.
From there, we run through the other 21 UTR leagues and discuss how dominant Bryant has been in the America East, but how Maine is only a game behind. Army is a great story in the Patriot League and has a chance to go into a tie for 1st place if they can win at American this Saturday. UC Irvine and UC San Diego continue to look strong out in the Big West, but the rest of the league is very competitive and it’s hard for them to just run the table. Conference USA seemingly has eight teams that could win the league and we dive into that. Drake continues to win, but Bradley suffered a huge loss tonight in the Missouri Valley. Drake and Grand Canyon are also continuing to bulk up their records. We discuss all that, and more! And, as we do every week, we close with this week’s UTR Top Ten.
And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
If you want to win an NCAA title then you usually need a good coach, a great resume…and a McDonald’s All-American. Only 2 championship teams from 1979-2020 did not have such a player (2002 Maryland/2014 UConn), and while UConn won a title in 2023 without 1 they added McDonald’s All-American Stephon Castle before winning a 2nd title in 2024. The rosters for this year’s McDonald’s All-American Game were announced last Monday after selecting the 24 best players in the nation from a list of several hundred nominees. If you do not think these guys can make an immediate impact in the fall, just ask Coach Jon Scheyer how he likes having 2024 honoree Cooper Flagg at Duke! Unlike most years when 1 school stands out as the big winner with the most All-Americans, there are 2 different programs tied for the lead with 3 each (Duke/UConn) and 4 players who have not yet committed to a college. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with AJ Dybantsa about being named a McDonald’s All-American and celebrating a big birthday.
You turn 18 today: what are your plans for the big day? I am getting on a plane.
As a high school freshman you were named Massachusetts Boys’ Basketball Gatorade POY after averaging 19.1 PPG/9.6 RPG/2.5 BPG: how were you able to come in and dominate at such a young age? I have been playing against older guys since I was in 3rd grade so it was nothing new to me.
Last April you scored a game-high 21 PTS for the World Team in a loss to Team USA at the Nike Hoop Summit: which of the other players impressed you the most (VJ Edgecombe/Cooper Flagg/Dylan Harper/other)? There were so many guys who stood out on my World team (VJ/Nolan Traore/Khaman Maluach/Flory Bidunga). Team USA had some great players as well (Cooper/Dylan/Ace Bailey): just look at what they have been doing in college this year.
You played for Team USA at the 2023 FIBA U16 Americas Championship/2024 FIBA U17 World Cup: what did it mean to you to represent your country, and what did it mean to you to win a pair of gold medals? It is a dream come true to win any gold medal, and it was fun to travel around the world and face other countries.
You are rated as the #1 player in the Class of 2025: why did you decide to reclassify from the Class of 2026? 2025 was my original class, and after my body developed I felt ready to classify back up.
You received offers from several great schools including Alabama/Kansas/UNC but committed to BYU last month as the highest-ranked recruit in program history: what was the biggest factor in your decision? They have an All-NBA staff from the head coach to the trainer to the dietitian.
Earlier this week you were named a McDonald’s All-American: what did it mean to you to receive such an outstanding honor? It was a blessing/dream and felt so good to see my name on that list.
You are 6’9” with a wingspan over 7’: what position do you play now, and which position will you feel most comfortable at in college? Right now I play multiple positions, usually the wing, and in college I would feel comfortable at the 1 or 2 or 3.
You traveled to Paris last week for the NBA’s Global Games: what was it like to get an up-close look at Victor Wembanyama? That was my 1st time seeing Victor in person: he is amazing. With a rumored NIL deal of $5-7 million you will become 1 of the richest teenagers in America this fall: I know it is not polite to ask about money…but what are you going to do with all those dollars? Invest!
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Hoops HD Staff Bracket – January 31, 2025
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly Hoops HD Staff Bracket. This is NOT a forecast of what the field will be come March, but merely a checkpoint as to what teams have accomplished at this point.
And here is the bracket below:
First Four Out: Arizona State, Nebraska, Xavier, Wake Forest
Worth A Look: BYU, SMU, North Texas, UC-San Diego, Bradley, George Mason, Indiana
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– Auburn and Duke are entrenched in the top 2 seeds right now, but Alabama still has a potential path to get even higher. Iowa State had a tough loss at Arizona on Monday, and Alabama is coming off of a win at Mississippi State earlier this week. Duke might have to potentially run the table in the ACC to remain on the 1-line if top-tier teams in the SEC continue to beat top-notch competition within the conference.
– Maryland has gone from a team that was potentially near the cut line to a team that is now fighting for a Top-4 seed. Wins over UCLA, Wisconsin along with road wins at Illinois and Indiana are helping immensely.
– Connecticut has been leaking oil ever since the Liam McNeeley injury, but he should be back in the lineup shortly for the Huskies. Woe to whatever #1 seed draws them in the 2nd round if a seed like this holds up for the Huskies. (And imagine a road to the Final Four for Duke potentially going through UConn, Maryland AND North Carolina)
– While there is a concerted effort by the Selection Committee to keep teams close to Dayton after their First Four games, the presence of Ohio State in a First Four is really problematic with three B1G teams on the 6-line. I do not foresee the committee bumping the OSU/Carolina winner down a seedline just to keep them close to home.
– There are a few other potential home court disadvantages that altered a few matchups: I kept Yale out of the Providence subregion and I also had to keep Cleveland State out of Cleveland against Tennessee. (Keep in mind that the MAC (not Cleveland State) is the host school this year.) Morehead State is also another team that was not potentially placed in Lexington given that they’re only about 60 miles away – it wouldn’t have prevented them from playing a team like Louisville or Tennessee, but Auburn/Alabama might be a bridge too far.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’m a little surprised that there isn’t more love for Clemson. I know their profile doesn’t top out that high, but the way they’ve been playing seems to indicate they’d be a few lines higher than an 8 seed.
-UC Irvine on the 12 line is probably where the real committee would have them, but I actually like them a little more than that. I would have them around the 10 line or so.
-Saint Mary’s on the 9 line is interesting. I think they’re a lot better than that, but also get that their profile doesn’t show it. At least not yet. I think they’ll move up quite a bit between now and March.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
-I agree with Stalica’s protected seeds, but I think there is a strong case to move Houston up to the 2 line (they are 9-0 in Big 12 play) and maybe Iowa State down there as well. The Florida Gators would be my fourth #1 seed as of today — but given the way the SEC is stacked, that may change in less than 24 hours.
-I had championed a solid seed for West Virginia earlier in the year, but I am no longer on that bandwagon. The Mountaineers have lost 3 straight. including games to Arizona State and Kansas State. This team is sinking fast, down to only 7-7 against the top 3 tiers and 5-7 against the top 2. They may deserve to be in the 7/10 game, but should probably be the 10 seed.
-Clemson, on the other hand, I believe to be way under-seeded by Stalica. The Tigers are 17-4 overall and 11-4 against the top three tiers. They really do not have any bad losses, and their win over Kentucky is looking better and better by the day. I would have them several seed lines higher.
-I agree with Griggs (begrudgingly) that St Mary’s should be seeded higher. There may not be any GREAT wins on their profile, but this team looks like one of the top 20, and maybe even one of the top 16, teams in the nation when I watch them play.
-North Carolina does not deserve to be in the field right now. Several teams that Stalica left out simply have better profiles, including Arizona State, Wake Forest, BYU, and (I would even argue) North Texas. That entire list is a coin flip in my mind, and I would probably choose Arizona State today, but I do not even believe the Tar Heels are even among the top four teams out right now. They have one win against a tournament team and 9 losses overall. 9-9 against the top three tiers and only 5-9 against the top two just does not cut it for me.
-Way down at the bottom of the bracket, I do not think the Central Connecticut should be going to Dayton. The Blue Devils have a handful of bad losses, but their wins at UMass and at St. Joe’s are better than several teams that Stalica ranked above them.
-All in all, I think John did a solid job with this bracket, and I did have to stretch a bit to find stuff to disagree with — but this wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed!!!