NEWS AND NOTES:
-Auburn got a battle from Ole Miss, but picked up another high level win away from home as they held them off 92-82. Auburn seems to be cruising toward a #1 seed.
-Duke v UNC usually lives up, but didn’t yesterday. Most of the game looked like an OOC buy game as Duke totally dominated. The final score was 87-70, but it never even felt like it was that close. Duke remains a likely #1 seed, and UNC remains squarely on the bubble and in need of some big wins.
There were MANY surprises yesterday!
-Kansas State went into Iowa State, and didn’t just win, but blew it completely open late in the game and ended up winning 80-61. K State was a team that was so far outside the bubble that we weren’t paying attention at all. At 10-11 they still aren’t near the field, but they’ve now won three straight and when you look at the rest of their schedule you start to feel that many of those are winnable considering how they’ve been playing. This will make for an interesting finish to the season. Is K State this year’s team that comes out of nowhere and somehow makes the field??
-Another shocker was Texas Tech’s 82-81 win at Houston. Very early in the game, Texas Tech’s JT Toppin was ejected for a call that was questionable. Head Coach Grant McCasland then went ballistic and got himself ejected as well. The fact that both of them were unavailable for a road game at Houston, and Texas Tech won anyway, is quite remarkable, and it may be the singler most impressive win that any team has managed this season. A true road win at Houston.
-Michigan State’s long winning streak is over. They went to USC and lost 70-64. This is not an easy game to win, but given how well Michigan State had been playing, and given the fact that USC probably isn’t a team that will make the field, it was a bit of a surprising result.
-UConn went into Marquette and basically controlled that game from tip to buzzer, and came out with what is probably their biggest win of the year as they won 77-69. This is one that UConn really needed to stabilize their resume. As for Marquette, it is a bit of a setback, but they’re still well within range of a protected seed.
-Arkansas, who had been having a rather unspectacular and perhaps disappointing year, got a massive win yesterday as they went into Rupp Arena. They led for most of the game and were in complete control down the stretch as they won 89-79. It’s their biggest win of the year by far, and it may give them the momentum they need to go on a run and end up making the NCAA Tournament after all.
-Kansas was blowing Baylor off the court and looking as good as they’ve looked all year. They had a 40-21 lead at the half. In the second half, Baylor came back so quickly that it was shocking, and after outscoring Kansas 60-30 in the second half, it actually looked like Baylor won rather comfortably 80-71. Kansas is not in trouble, but they are starting to look like they may not deserve a protected seed.
-Missouri, who some of us were really starting to like, absolutely blew Mississippi State off the floor yesterday 88-61. It was hands down their best performance of the year, and I think they are now very high on everyone’s radar.
-New Mexico, who we all thought was good but not capable of blowing a team like Utah State off the floor on the road, blew Utah State off the floor on the road yesterday. The final score was 82-63, and it was the biggest win of the season for New Mexico, and should give their resume a huge boost.
-Louisville, who had been looking as hot and as exciting as anyone in the country, could not get it done at Georgia Tech yesterday. They fell 77-70 in what was a fairly surprising loss.
-Florida and Tennessee are both great teams, but the two games they’ve played against each other have been snoozers. Florida won the first game in Gainesville in a blowout, and Tennessee finished them off in Knoxville yesterday 64-44.
-Saint Mary’s held off Gonzaga in a 62-58 thriller. I know it was a home win, but when you look at how the two teams have been playing just on the court, Saint Mary’s looks better. When you look at the two teams on paper, Saint Mary’s may not be better yet, but they’re getting better. If they can continue to string together wins we may see SMC end up with a protected seed.
-Oklahoma blew Vanderbilt off the court 97-67, and after struggling at the start of SEC play, the Sooners have now won three straight and have themselves back in the picture.
-Pittsburgh and Wake are both squarely on the bubble, and both really needed the win yesterday. Wake ended up getting it at home 76-74. Both teams still have work to do, but yesterday was a pivotal game for both of them, and one Wake really needed.
-Arizona continues to roll. They got a big win against rival Arizona State. After the game Arizona State Coach Bobby Hurley made it a point to get his players and coaches off the court and not shake hands, and then in the postgame presser said that he won’t be voting for Caleb Love for all conference. Love is devastated, I’m sure. After a sluggish start, Arizona is now 11-1 since December 18th.
-Clemson continues to win. They got another one on the road as they held off NC State 68-58 and are now 18-4 on the year and 10-1 in the ACC.
-BYU has now won five out of six, and got a really big one yesterday against UCF on the road 81-75. BYU is now getting closer and closer to the bubble. As for UCF, they lead the nation in close losses to really good teams. They are now 13-8 on the year and are 2-5 in their last seven games, but three of those losses were by six points or less to really strong teams. They need to finish strong if they want to make it into the field.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-OHIO STATE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Both teams have been schizophrenic this year. By that I mean they’ve both won some really big games, but then also lost several gams you would have expected them to win rather easily. Ohio State has won three straight and they need to keep winning games to end up on the right side of the bubble. Illinois is safely in the field, and can still get a protected seed, but they haven’t always held serve and won the games you would expect them to.
-WEST VIRGINIA AT CINCINNATI (Big 12). West Virginia has lost five of their last seven, which includes three straight coming into this one. They are in a bit of a tailspin and need to turn things back around. A road win like this would be a huge step in the right direction, and this is one that they can/should win.
-MEMPHIS AT RICE (American). This is another conference road game that Memphis should be able to win. This would get them to 18-4 on the year and perhaps keep them within reach of a protected seed.
-BRADLEY AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). Bradley may be out of strikes, but if they can run the table through the rest of the regular season they may at least get a look from the committee.
-NEBRASKA AT OREGON (Big Ten). Nebraska finally snapped their losing streak a few days ago with a surprise home win against Illinois, but this is an even tougher test considering it’s on the road against an Oregon team that has a path to a protected seed. This is a big opportunity for the Huskers. They’re right on the bubble and a win like this could make the difference. But…it won’t be easy.
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – January 31, 2025
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the weekly Hoops HD Staff Bracket. This is NOT a forecast of what the field will be come March, but merely a checkpoint as to what teams have accomplished at this point.
And here is the bracket below:
First Four Out: Arizona State, Nebraska, Xavier, Wake Forest
Worth A Look: BYU, SMU, North Texas, UC-San Diego, Bradley, George Mason, Indiana
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– Auburn and Duke are entrenched in the top 2 seeds right now, but Alabama still has a potential path to get even higher. Iowa State had a tough loss at Arizona on Monday, and Alabama is coming off of a win at Mississippi State earlier this week. Duke might have to potentially run the table in the ACC to remain on the 1-line if top-tier teams in the SEC continue to beat top-notch competition within the conference.
– Maryland has gone from a team that was potentially near the cut line to a team that is now fighting for a Top-4 seed. Wins over UCLA, Wisconsin along with road wins at Illinois and Indiana are helping immensely.
– Connecticut has been leaking oil ever since the Liam McNeeley injury, but he should be back in the lineup shortly for the Huskies. Woe to whatever #1 seed draws them in the 2nd round if a seed like this holds up for the Huskies. (And imagine a road to the Final Four for Duke potentially going through UConn, Maryland AND North Carolina)
– While there is a concerted effort by the Selection Committee to keep teams close to Dayton after their First Four games, the presence of Ohio State in a First Four is really problematic with three B1G teams on the 6-line. I do not foresee the committee bumping the OSU/Carolina winner down a seedline just to keep them close to home.
– There are a few other potential home court disadvantages that altered a few matchups: I kept Yale out of the Providence subregion and I also had to keep Cleveland State out of Cleveland against Tennessee. (Keep in mind that the MAC (not Cleveland State) is the host school this year.) Morehead State is also another team that was not potentially placed in Lexington given that they’re only about 60 miles away – it wouldn’t have prevented them from playing a team like Louisville or Tennessee, but Auburn/Alabama might be a bridge too far.
STAFF COMMENTS:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’m a little surprised that there isn’t more love for Clemson. I know their profile doesn’t top out that high, but the way they’ve been playing seems to indicate they’d be a few lines higher than an 8 seed.
-UC Irvine on the 12 line is probably where the real committee would have them, but I actually like them a little more than that. I would have them around the 10 line or so.
-Saint Mary’s on the 9 line is interesting. I think they’re a lot better than that, but also get that their profile doesn’t show it. At least not yet. I think they’ll move up quite a bit between now and March.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
-I agree with Stalica’s protected seeds, but I think there is a strong case to move Houston up to the 2 line (they are 9-0 in Big 12 play) and maybe Iowa State down there as well. The Florida Gators would be my fourth #1 seed as of today — but given the way the SEC is stacked, that may change in less than 24 hours.
-I had championed a solid seed for West Virginia earlier in the year, but I am no longer on that bandwagon. The Mountaineers have lost 3 straight. including games to Arizona State and Kansas State. This team is sinking fast, down to only 7-7 against the top 3 tiers and 5-7 against the top 2. They may deserve to be in the 7/10 game, but should probably be the 10 seed.
-Clemson, on the other hand, I believe to be way under-seeded by Stalica. The Tigers are 17-4 overall and 11-4 against the top three tiers. They really do not have any bad losses, and their win over Kentucky is looking better and better by the day. I would have them several seed lines higher.
-I agree with Griggs (begrudgingly) that St Mary’s should be seeded higher. There may not be any GREAT wins on their profile, but this team looks like one of the top 20, and maybe even one of the top 16, teams in the nation when I watch them play.
-North Carolina does not deserve to be in the field right now. Several teams that Stalica left out simply have better profiles, including Arizona State, Wake Forest, BYU, and (I would even argue) North Texas. That entire list is a coin flip in my mind, and I would probably choose Arizona State today, but I do not even believe the Tar Heels are even among the top four teams out right now. They have one win against a tournament team and 9 losses overall. 9-9 against the top three tiers and only 5-9 against the top two just does not cut it for me.
-Way down at the bottom of the bracket, I do not think the Central Connecticut should be going to Dayton. The Blue Devils have a handful of bad losses, but their wins at UMass and at St. Joe’s are better than several teams that Stalica ranked above them.
-All in all, I think John did a solid job with this bracket, and I did have to stretch a bit to find stuff to disagree with — but this wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed!!!