The Hoops HD Report: February 1st

Before we start going through the conferences, we begin tonight remembering John Chaney and all he did for college basketball throughout his career.  We also discuss the possibility of teams opting out of their conference tournaments, and the impact that could have on March Madness.

From there we look back at the SEC/Big 12 Challenge and particularly look at Oklahoma’s big win against Alabama, and Kansas’s loss to Tennessee as the Jayhawks continue to struggle.  We also look back at a big week in the Big Ten, Virginia Tech’s big win over rival Virginia in the ACC, Saint Louis’s struggles to get on the court in the Atlantic Ten, Colorado State and Boise State’s impressive run in the Mountain West, and how UCLA and USC are neck and neck in the Pac 12.  All that, and more!

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Hoops HD Staff Bracket Projections (From the Puppet): Feb 1st

Before you go any further, I just want to make sure you know what you are looking at.  This is NOT an attempt to guess what the actual committee will actually do in March, nor is it an attempt to suppose what the actual committee would do if today were Selection Sunday.  These are entirely my own picks based on what has happened so far this season.  If you want a selection committee guessing expert’s picks, check out Jon Teitel’s bracket.  He’s way better at that than I have ever been or will ever be.

Below are some of my comments.  Below that are some comments/criticisms from the staff.  If they disagree with anything I have done, THEN THEY SHOULD BE IGNORED!!!  I AM ALWAYS RIGHT!!!

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Penn State, Providence, Syracuse, LSU, Georgia Tech, Utah State, VCU, Arkansas, Auburn Duke, SMU.

Yes, despite having a losing overall record, Penn State has a pretty good profile and is close to my bubble.

COMMENTS FROM DAVID:

-I’ll start with what I think is most obvious, and that is the sheer number of UTR teams that are inside the bubble.  Drake, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky and Toledo are all seeded above the First Four, and while you can’t tell by looking at this bracket, I actually have Belmont sandwiched in between Colorado State and North Carolina.  That is not something I am expecting the actual committee to do, and truth be told some of those teams’ resumes do not top out as high as a few of the teams I have them ahead of, but when I look at how well they’re playing now, and the wins that they do have (either on the road against teams who are good at home, or in the case of WKU against a protected seed) I think they’re better than the teams I have behind them.

-Iowa on the #6 line is probably going to make some people scratch their heads.  I’m not seeing the protected seed caliber win on their resume.  Furthermore, when they’ve had opportunities to pick up a protected seed caliber win, they have failed to do it.  Several times.  To me, that means they’re not a protected seeded caliber team.  They may get up there by the end of the year, but they’re not there yet.

-You know who does have multiple protected seeded caliber wins??  Oklahoma!  They’ve really turned it on these past few weeks and have put some high caliber wins on their resume.

CHAD’S COMMENTS

– I will start with Iowa (though I should start with why David did not make Missouri a 4 seed and set up the potential second round game with Kansas, but I really don’t want to go there).  I understand that they do not have any HUGE wins on their profile.  But their wins are all very strong.  At Rutgers, at Maryland and home against Purdue, north Carolina and Minnesota (plus a sweep of Northwestern),  On the loss side, neutral court Gonzaga, at Illinois and at Minnesota (who beats everyone at home) are all easily excusable as well.  The only knock is a home loss to Indiana, who is still a very good team.  Let’s compare that to a team David thinks (for some reason) is a protected seed — Tennessee.  Given the way Kansas is playing right now, the only quality win I really see on their profile is at Missouri.  I would honestly flip these two teams completely in his bracket.

– I understood not liking Illinois’ profile before this weekend, but they won one of the best games of the entire season over the weekend when they beat Iowa.  I guess if you think Iowa stinks (as David does), the Illini would be on the 6 line.  I would have them 2 lines higher, and cases could be made to put them even higher than that.

– Maryland is 8-8 versus D1 competition and 3-7 in the Big Ten.  Road wins at Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota are incredible, but you cannot completely ignore the record.  I think the Terps belong in the field, but the 7 line is just flat out stupid — they are an 11 or 12 seed and may belong in the First Four.  #StupidPuppet

– Seton Hall is an 11 seed according to David.  While that is not in the field by much, I don’t understand why the Pirates are in the field at all.  They have exactly one win against a tournament team (at Xavier).  On the other hand they have two losses to teams not in the field (Rhode Island and Providence) and are only 9-8 overall.  I am all for putting teams with quality profiles in the field despite their overall record, especially this year.  I just do not look at Seton Hall and see a quality profile.  I see a good team that cannot win close games, and that is not good enough for me.

– Saint Louis is in David’s field.  Richmond is in David’s field.  Why?  The Billikens were hit hard by COVID and have only played 8 games, which I understand, but they have only one win against the top two tiers, have not beaten anyone in David’s field and their next road win will be their first.  That is not good enough to be in at this time.  Richmond does have three Tier 1 road wins, but the only tournament caliber win was at Loyola-Chicago.  They also have bad home losses to Hofstra and La Salle.  The Spiders belong “on the board”, but are not nearly good enough to be in the field yet.

– Where is Arkansas?  I get it that the Razorbacks have not beaten a tournament-caliber team, but their 5 losses are Tier 1 and on the road (other than Missouri at home).  I will take their profile over Loyola-Chicago’s (losses to Richmond and Indiana State and only two wins in the top two tiers) in a blind resume test 10 times out of 10.  Honestly, if the Hogs played in the SoCon or MAC, with the same exact resume, I think David would have them as an 8 seed.  This is bias against them because they are in a power conference, and it is unacceptable at this point.

– I agree with David’s Penn State comments — so why didn’t he do the right thing and put them in the field?  The Nittany Lions have one of the top 50 profiles in the nation, plain and simple.  I really do not understand Maryland as a 7 seed with a .500 record against D1 while Penn State is out with one less loss, a very comparable profile and a record only one game under .500.  Once again, #StupidPuppet.

 

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Feb 1st

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which highlights one of the best UTR rivalries – CLICK HERE

-Michigan State might be back, but they look nothing like an NCAA Tournament team.  Its’ not that losing to Ohio State is bad in and of itself because Ohio State is a likely protected seed, but the Spartans were never really in the game.

-Loyola Chicago should be getting the selection committee’s attention.  I don’t know if they are or not, but they should be.  Missouri State has been a solid team this year, especially at home, and Loyola just blew them out of the building.  They’ve looked the part all year, both at home and on the road, and deserve to at least be in the discussion.

-Drake, the other Missouri Valley team that’s gotten noticed, remains undefeated, but barely.  They needed overtime yesterday to get by Illinois State.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-GEORGIA TECH AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  Georgia Tech can play their way inside the bubble if they can string together a few wins.  Louisville is inside the bubble, but they seem to have hit a bit of a skid and just haven’t looked as good on the court in recent games.  The sooner they snap out of it, the better.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley).  Drake had to sweat out the win in overtime yesterday, but they remain unbeaten and I believe they remain inside the bubble.

-DUKE AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Duke looked really good against Georgia Tech, and they may finally be starting to gel and starting to play like a solid tournament team.  They need to keep that momentum going with a win tonight.

-LOYOLA CHICAGO AT MISSOURI STATE (Missouri Valley).  This will be a tough road test for Loyola Chicago, but if they can pull off the win they’ll be in good shape for being in a position to get an at-large bid.  Or…they should be, at least.

-OKLAHOMA AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12).  Oklahoma has been playing incredibly well over the past two weeks and is starting to look like a protected seed.  Texas Tech also looks like a strong protected seed, so this is a big time match-up between two teams with good profiles that are looking to make them even better.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Monday, February 1

St. Francis (Brooklyn) at Long Island University, 5:00 PM, necfrontrow.com

One of the best Under the Radar rivalries in college basketball is the focus this evening for our Under the Radar Game of the Day — the Terrier of St. Francis College in Brooklyn taking on their cross-town rivals the Long Island University Blackbirds Sharks in the second of this year’s Battle of Brooklyn matchups.

The Terriers enter today’s game at 4-3 in Northeast Conference play and 4-4 overall.  Their records puts them in the top four in the conference and tied for fewest losses with LIU — both of which are key this season with only four teams slated to qualify for the conference tournament.  Chauncey Hawkins, Travis Atson, Rob Higgins and Unique McLean are all averaging double figures in scoring for SFBK, the team that KenPom rates 14th in fastest Tempo in the entire nation.

14th may be a fast Tempo, but LIU enters today ranked 7th in the same category — meaning that we should be in line for another high action, fast paced game.  LIU, which won round one of this Battle on Saturday by a score of 102-88, also has four players averaging double figures in scoring — Ty Flowers, Eral Penn, Jermaine Jackson Jr and Alex Rivera.  Penn is in fact averaging just shy of a double-double with 9.6 rebounds per game and was named co-MVP along with Flowers in Saturday Battle of Brooklyn victory.

 

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Bracketology 2021: March Madness Predictions (Version 5.0)

CLICK HERE for Today’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games

We are only 6 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams that made the 2019 tourney, 63 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 45 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 14th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 7th out of 133 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Gonzaga (WCC)
1: Baylor (Big 12)
1: Michigan (Big 10)
1: Villanova (Big East)

2: Houston (AAC)
2: Alabama (SEC)
2: Texas (Big 12)
2: Iowa (Big 10)

3: Ohio State (Big 10)
3: Virginia (ACC)
3: Wisconsin (Big 10)
3: Illinois (Big 10)

4: Tennessee (SEC)
4: West Virginia (Big 12)
4: Missouri (SEC)
4: Texas Tech (Big 12)

5: Oklahoma (Big 12)
5: Kansas (Big 12)
5: Florida State (ACC)
5: Creighton (Big East)

6: UCLA (Pac-12)
6: USC (Pac-12)
6: Colorado (Pac-12)
6: Purdue (Big 10)

7: Minnesota (Big 10)
7: Virginia Tech (ACC)
7: Oklahoma State (Big 12)
7: Florida (SEC)

8: Clemson (ACC)
8: Louisville (ACC)
8: BYU (WCC)
8: Oregon (Pac-12)

9: Xavier (Big East)
9: Boise State (MWC)
9: Connecticut (Big East)
9: Rutgers (Big 10)

10: St. Louis (A-10)
10: LSU (SEC)
10: Drake (MVC)
10: North Carolina (ACC)

11: San Diego State (MWC)
11: Arkansas (SEC)
11: Indiana (Big 10)
11: Stanford (Pac-12)

12: St. Bonaventure (A-10)
12: Colorado State (MWC)
12: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
12: Seton Hall (Big East)
12: Toledo (MAC)
12: Winthrop (Big South)

13: UAB (C-USA)
13: Belmont (OVC)
13: Colgate (Patriot)
13: Wofford (SoCon)

14: South Dakota State (Summit)
14: Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
14: Abilene Christian (Southland)
14: Siena (MAAC)

15: UC Irvine (Big West)
15: Bryant (NEC)
15: Louisiana (Sun Belt)
15: Grand Canyon (WAC)

16: Cleveland State (Horizon)
16: Northeastern (CAA)
16: Vermont (America East)
16: Montana State (Big Sky)
16: Prairie View (SWAC)
16: North Carolina A&T (MEAC)

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 31st

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Virginia appeared to be in control of Virginia Tech for about 30 minutes, but totally came apart down the stretch as VA Tech outscored them 44-22 in the second half for an impressive (and important) 65-51 win.

-Alabama’s streak came to an end as they fell at Oklahoma 66-61.  It isn’t so much an Alabama letdown as it a very impressive run by an Oklahoma team that was kind of near the bubble a week or so ago, and is now suddenly looking like a protected seed.

-LSU appeared to have Texas Tech put away, and was about to pick up a much needed season defining win that would give their resume a huge boost, but Tech clawed back in the final couple of minutes and really didn’t get control of the game until the final seconds.  They held on fo ra 76-71 win once all the freethrow shooting was over.

-The Gators are back!  They got a HUGE win at West Virginia, which totally changes the complexion of their resume and likely puts them solidly in the top half of the bracket (for now).

-TCU appeared to have Missouri put away, but the Tigers came back to force overtime, and even then TCU had a chance to win in the final minute, but Mizzou escaped with a 102-98 win in a thriller.  It would have been a huge win on TCU’s resume had they been able to pull it out.  As of now they still appear to be rather distant from the bubble.

-Not sure what happened to Wisconsin.  Penn State hung around in the first half, and then took control in the second half putting up 50pts in that half against what is normally a really tough Wisky defense.  Penn State ended up with the 81-71 win.

-It’s time to start asking what the hell is wrong with Kansas.  They’ve now lost four of their last five, and it isn’t so much that losing at Tennessee is a bad loss, but they absolutely got their doors blown off.  The Vols, up until yesterday, had been going through a stretch where they looked kind of down.

-Georgia Tech scored an upset win against a Florida State team that, up until yesterday, had been looking as good (and perhaps better) as everyone else in the ACC.  The Yellowjackets can still play their way in.

-Minnesota’s road struggles continue.  When Minnesota plays at home, they don’t just win!  They blow teams out!  When Minnesota plays on the road, they don’t just lose, they get blown out!  Purdue blew them out 81-62.

-Speaking of blowouts, it keeps happening to Clemson.  They did get a win against Louisville earlier in the week, but for the third time in four games they were absolutely blown off the floor. Duke, who hadn’t looked anything like a tournament team for most of the year, got the 79-53 win.

-Colorado fell at home to a Utah team that isn’t bad, but isn’t exactly a tournament caliber team either.  It’s definitely a game that you’d expect Colorado to win.  The 77-74 loss is another setback for the Buffs.

-Oklahoma State really had to sweat, but they held on to beat an Arkansas team that I didn’t think they’d have a problem with.  Some others have been big on Arkansas.  I have not been, but I admit I was impressed with how they played yesterday despite the loss.

-Stanford, a team that I was starting to warm up to, has given me a reason to be highly skeptical.  They fell 79-75 to an Arizona State team that has not looked good at all this season.  Stanford continues to straddle the fence of the bubble.

-A bit of an Under the Radar note, Belmont had to overcome a double digit second half deficit at Murray State to hold on for a 72-71 win after coming up with a big defensive stop on the final possession of the game.  Belmont is now 16-1 on the year, and while they may not make it inside the bubble even if they run the table (unless they can schedule a big OOC game), they should at least be in the discussion and are potentially dangerous if they are the team that wins the auto-bid.

-After falling to Pepperdine earlier in the week, BYU needed double overtime to get past Pacific.  They did get the win, but it’s been a less than stellar week for the Cougars.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-SMU AT HOUSTON (American).  SMU is hovering around outside the bubble  A win in a game like this could make the difference of whether or not they make the field.  It’s obviously easier said than done.  Houston is a top ten team that’s playing at home.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Michigan State did not look good at all in their last game against Rutgers, which was their first after being shut down.  They have a long way to go just to land inside the bubble.  Ohio State, on the other hand, is looking more and more like a protected seed.

-ILLINOIS STATE AT DRAKE (Missouri Valley).  Drake continues to win, and if they win this game they may crack the top 25 tomorrow.  Even if they don’t, I think they should be safely inside the bubble at this point.  Now, it’ll only take a couple of losses to knock them outside of it, but this is a legit Drake team.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Still not sure of what to make of Marquette, but they need to hold serve in games against sub-tournament caliber teams in order to get on the right side of the bubble.

-NC STATE AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  Both of these teams have work to do, and both should be coming in with a sense of urgency because both could really use this win.

-RUTGERS AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten).  Rutgers still looks to be inside the bubble, but this is the kind of game that an NCAA Tournament team should be expected to win.  It’s not so much that it’d be a big win, but it would be an expected win.

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