For the first time this season, Chad takes a crack at the Staff Bracket. Below you will see his projected bracket through all games played on Sunday, January 10, 2021 followed by his notes. Below that, other HoopsHD staff members have a chance to tear these choices apart.
CHAD’S COMMENTS
– I dislike doing brackets until every team has played at least ten games. In a normal season, that would be right about now. This year — that could still be weeks away! David and John insisted that a do a bracket this week, however, so here it is.
– Yes, I have a team on the 2 seed line that, at least heading into the day on Monday January 11, is not in the Top 25 of either poll. But why not? This season has been crazy already and UCLA right now is playing as well as anyone other than Gonzaga. So I put them on the 2 line and you will all just have to live with it!
– One reason that I hate doing brackets with such little data is that it is hard to rate teams that have won most of their games but have not beaten a great team yet. I think Louisville is a prime example of that, and they sit on my 4 line more because of their 8-1 record than anything else. They have honestly not passed the eye test for me quite yet, but their resume is second best in the ACC (behind Clemson!).
– I have Drake, Toledo and Winthrop all “inside the bubble”, meaning that I have these three projected auto-bid winners rated higher than the last of my at-large teams. For Drake and Winthrop, I just cannot argue with undefeated records. In Toledo’s case, I just think their resume is better than teams that have good metrics but lack any true quality wins.
– My last four teams in, in order, were Florida State, Arkansas, Colorado State and Stanford. My top four teams out, also in order, were Marquette, Florida, Providence and Northwestern. All 8 of these teams either have quality wins but too many losses at this point, or bloated records without any quality wins. Actually, that can probably be said for more than half the teams that I gave at-large bids to.
– I had a huge board of teams that I considered below my first four out. They included Syracuse, TCU, NC State, St Bonaventure, Richmond, Tulsa, Wichita State, Santa Clara, SMU, Georgia Tech, Mississippi State, VCU, Bowling Green, Missouri State, UAB, Loyola-Chicago and Kentucky.
– I know I said I couldn’t resist putting undefeated teams inside the bubble, but that did not apply to Siena. Drake and Winthrop played non-conference schedules. Siena is 4-0 with only conference foes to date. That puts the Saints in the field, but way down on the 15 line.
– Missing entirely from this field is a very good Western Kentucky team that pulled what seems to be an annual tradition of losing inexplicable games in mid-January the past two weeks. The Hilltoppers chances for an at-large bid are pretty much gone at this point. Also missing is New Mexico State. I honestly believe the Aggies have the most talent of any WAC team, but right now their record against D1 teams is 0-1. If they can finally get back on the floor and start winning, I expect the to be in the field.
COMMENTS FROM STAFF MEMBERS
FROM DAVID:
-I’m so grateful that Chad clarified who his last four teams in the field were in his write up! None of us would have been able to figure that out by just looking at who was in his First Four!
-I don’t think I’d have UCLA as high as a #2 seed, but I do agree that they should be high on the seedlist. The team has been playing really well, amassed quite a few decent wins, and is unbeaten in conference. I don’t know if I’d say they belong in the top ten, but how the hell are they not in the the top 25 (at the time I’m writing this)?
-Virginia Tech on the #7 line is interesting. The team has a really good resume, but doesn’t always look as good on the court as they do on paper. Nevertheless, the merit is there for them to be in the protected seeded range.
-Boise State made it into Chad’s top half of the bracket!! I think they look like a solid tournament team, but I guess Chad likes them even more!
-It’s too early to ding Minnesota too much for not having won anything away from home, but no matter how long their list of big home wins ends up being, they need to do SOMETHING on the road to get into the field at all, much less end up as high as the #6 line.
-Last, but not least, West Virginia v Marshall in the Round of 64!! WAHOO!!!!!
FROM JOHN:
– The Puppet already touched on UCLA, but I’d add that the 2-line is where they could end up at the end of the year, but right now a 4 or 5 sounds about right. The win at Arizona and at home against Colorado is good, but a 2 should have beaten either Ohio State on a neutral floor or San Diego State away from home.
– West Virginia is going to bear watching as the season progresses without Oscar Tshiebwe; they did get a come-from-behind win at Oklahoma State last Monday but then blew a golden opportunity to get a win against Texas at home.
– Teams like Duke and Michigan State are stuck on auto-pilot in the #10 line, and even then might be getting more of a reputational benefit of the doubt at this point. And yet Pitt snuck in the field on the 12 line. Wins at Syracuse, Northwestern and Miami do help to take the stink off of a home loss against STFU, but have they completely recovered from the damage of the Stallings era?
