NEWS AND NOTES:
-Arizona got a much bigger battle from Baylor than what we were expecting, but finally got control late in the game and held on for an 87-80 road win. I still think Arizona is the best overall team and has the best overall profile. No one else at Hoops HD thinks this, but they are wrong!!!
-Virginia did not get a battle from NC State. Not at all. The Hoos looked as good as they have all year and totally blew out NC State 90-61. I know they were at home, and I Know NC State isn’t a top 25 team, but blowing out a tournament caliber team like that is still an impressive showing. (Note from Stalica – the game was a little more respectable at the beginning of the 2nd half, but a technical by Will Wade and subsequent fracas on the court between both teams really fired up Virginia. The game ceased being competitive after that.)
-The 97-84 win for UCF at BYU does not properly indicate just how badly UCF kicked their butts! In what was one of the more shocking results of the day, UCF led by more than 20 for much of the game. BYU is very good at home and UCF, until yesterday, had not been good at all on the road. I mean…WOW!!! What a performance!!
-Texas Tech did manage to cool off what had been a hot Cincinnati team at home last night. We talked on Monday about the Bearcats suddenly getting hot, but now any path to making the NCAAs better involve winning the Big 12 Tournament.
-Tennessee, who had been playing really well in recent games, could not get it done at Missouri yesterday and fell 73-69. It’s a really big win for a Missouri team that really needed it. While it was a missed opportunity for the Vols and while a win could have strengthened their case for a protected seed even more, it wasn’t that much of a setback. The Vols are fine.
-On Monday night’s Hoops HD Report I talked about how I thought Saint Louis was a legit top 20 team and how I expected them to win out through the Atlantic 10 Tournament. So of course Dayton blew them out in the second leg of the Arch Baron Cup last night. The final score was 77-62, but at no point did it feel that Dayton was not in complete control. Dayton was my preseason pick to win the league. Where the hell was all this before yesterday??!!
-Indiana just cannot make things easy on themselves. They are on the bubble and yesterday they did something that no bubble team should ever do. They lost at home to a team that is not within a thousand miles of the bubble. Northwestern got the 72-68 win and this is perhaps a crippling loss for the Hoosiers.
-Miami FL continues to roll. They picked up a really nice win at Florida State last night 83-73 and have now won five of their last six and have done quite a bit to improve their resume. This also avenged a home loss by the Canes against Florida State last month.
-Auburn = OUCH!! They really needed that win at Oklahoma last night and did not get it. They fell 91-79 and really weren’t in control of the game at any point. They simply don’t look like a tournament team right now. They’re 15-13 overall and have lost six of their last seven games.
-New Mexico desperately needed a win at Nevada last night to keep the bubble within reach and they did not get it. It was a defensive battle (at least in the first half), but Nevada got control late in the second half and held on to win 67-60.
-Whenever Mick Cronin has a public meltdown, his team seems to respond. I noticed this phenomenon when he was coaching Cincinnati. Since his most recent meltdown, UCLA has won two straight (albeit both at home). They beat a really good Illinois team over the weekend and blew out rivals USC last night 81-62. If the season ended today, I think UCLA would get in. USC is not only on the opposite side of LA, they’re likely on the opposite side of the bubble right now.
-In UTR action, Morehead State has risen from the ashes of a 1-7 start against D1 competition (the lone win being against an awful UL-Monroe team) and has suddenly taken a half-game lead in the OVC standings with a 64-63 win against Southern Indiana last night. They can clinch no worse than a tie for first in the OVC with a win at Little Rock tomorrow night.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-SAINT JOHN’S AT CONNECTICUT (Big East). It’s the two best teams in the Big East and it’s a battle for the likely first place finisher. The Johnnies won the first matchup between these two and if they can do it again tonight on the road I think they can end up as a protected seed. UConn can still make the #1-line, but they pretty much need to win out in order to do it.
-FLORIDA AT TEXAS (SEC). Florida is almost locked into a protected seed and Texas is still trying to fight their way safely inside the bubble. A win tonight for the Longhorns would boost the value of their profile despite the fact that it’s a home game.
-GEORGIA AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Georgia has won two straight and both were big wins, so they’ve turned things around for themselves. Vandy has lost two straight and has fallen down the rankings some. They’re in no danger of missing the field, but they do need to get things turned back around.
-TEXAS A&M AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Both teams are in the field. Arkansas is still within reach of a protected seed and Texas A&M is trying to play their way solidly into the top half of the bracket. TAMU has won their last two games, but neither were anywhere near as big a test as this one will be. This would perhaps be their biggest win of the year if they could somehow pull it off.
-OHIO STATE AT IOWA (Big Ten). Iowa is hovering right around that 7-10 seed range and has been for most of the year. Ohio State is outside the bubble and has had chance after chance after chance to play their way in, but they keep coming up short. They need to win a game like this one tonight in order to make the field.
-SMU AT CALIFORNIA (SMU). this is a super bubblicious game for both teams. Both are basically straddling the bubble and Cal is probably outside of it. Both could really use this win.
-SANTA CLARA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). This is the game that I’m most excited for tonight and it’s the reason many of us will lose sleep tonight. Santa Clara is squarely on the bubble but can probably play their way in with a win on the road tonight. Saint Mary’s is in the field, but could fall back close to the bubble if they lose tonight. Oh yeah, and it’s a rivalry game. It’s two teams in a high stakes game that is also a rivalry game. How can this not be fun??
-UTAH STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). This is a really tough road test for Utah State, but good teams should be good enough to win tough games. San Diego State probably doesn’t have a path to making the field outside of winning the auto-bid, but if they want any chance at all they need to win this one.
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OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Maryland @ Nebraska (Big Ten) – the Huskers should be able to hold serve in this one without too much trouble and stay within range of a protected seed
-Butler @ Villanova (Big East) – Nova is pretty much a lock and should be in the top half of the bracket. They should also be able to hold serve tonight
–Xavier @ Providence (Big East) – We highlight this only because our colleague Stalica flew to Providence to watch this game. Why didn’t he watch the Saint Francis/New Haven game with Zach instead?
-Portland @ Gonzaga (West Coast) – Portland won the first matchup between these two, but the Zags should blow them out in what is a revenge game (which is kind of funny to say).
-Mississippi State @ Alabama (SEC) – Alabama is battling for a protected seed and should be able to hold serve at home against a Mississippi State team that’s nowhere near the bubble
-Wisconsin @ Oregon (Big Ten) – Wisconsin has been playing great lately going 5-2 in their last seven games and getting wins against Illinois and Michigan State in that stretch. They should be able to hold on and get this one tonight. Yet Oregon is coming off of a win at USC that may have been a fatal wound for the Trojans.
UTR WATCH:
-Navy @ Loyola MD (Patriot League) – Navy has already wrapped up the Patriot League and will have home court advantage in the PL Tournament
-Wofford @ East Tennessee State (SoCon) – East Tennessee State has already clinched 1st place, but could still be in for a battle tonight against a Wofford team that’s have a pretty good year
-Evansville @ Belmont (Missouri Valley) – Belmont has clinched 1st place and will be a dangerous team in the Round of 64 if they can get there
-South Florida @ Rice (American) – South Florida has a two game lead with just four games remaining and tonight’s game should be a layup win despite the fact that they’re on the road
-UL Monroe @ South Alabama (Sun Belt) – there is a 4-way tie for 1st place in the SBC. South Alabama should be able to cruise through this one and stay in the race.
-Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay (Atlantic Sun) – these are the two best teams in the ASun and Central Arkansas has been one of the bigger surprises of the season, although they are coming off an OT loss to FGCU. Austin Peay can clinch 1st place outright with a win tonight
