We are only 7 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we begin to make our NCAA tourney predictions. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams that made the 2024 tourney: 62 of his 67 were within 1 spot of their actual seed and 41 were right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 16th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how he stacks up with other websites (ranked 7th out of 179 bracket veterans over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com
SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE) 1: Auburn (SEC) 1: Duke (ACC) 1: Alabama (SEC) 1: Iowa State (Big 12)
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
-Yesterday’s biggest showcase game was a close game, but not necessarily a good game to watch. If it was the first time you’d seen Auburn or Tennessee yesterday you’d probably be a little unimpressed. The game was low scoring and the lead seesawed back and forrth the whole way. Tennessee had a chance to win it on their last possession, but came up empty and Auburn escaped 53-51.
-Duke led at Wake for most of the game, but Wake Forest did explode out of the second half and came from behind to take a lead, but Duke was able to come back and get the 63-56 road win. Considering how well Wake had been playing, and how weak the rest of the ACC is, this was perhaps one of Duke’s toughest remaining games. They should be running down hill until March.
-Houston v Kansas was crazy. Houston trailed by 4 with less than a minute to go in regulation and came back to tie it and force overtime. They then trailed by 6 with less than 10 seconds to go in overtime and came back to tie it to force another overtime. The Cougars then pulled away in the second overtime and got their biggest win of the year so far. We had been saying we thought Houston was a Final Four caliber team and that they would eventually prove it. They proved it yesterday.
-Kentucky overcame a 14pt halftime deficit at Vanderbilt, got the lead, and appeared to be in control, but Vandy surged late and pulled off the 74-69 upset. Vandy has had quite a week beating both Kentucky and Tennessee at home.
-Texas A&M was cruising against Texas. So much so that I kind of stopped paying attention to the game, but they came back from 18 down in the second half, and hit the game winning shot with 3 seconds to go for the 70-69 win. That was Texas’s only lead of the game. For TAMU, I’m sure that stings to blow a lead like that on the road in a rivalry game.
-Oregon suffered their first loss away from home as they fell at Minnesota 77-69. Oregon was looking like a top ten team for much of the season, and while the Ducks still look very good they are falling down our seedlist a little bit.
-Missouri got another big win as they held off Ole Miss at home 83-75. None of Ole Miss’s losses are bad, but they have not lost three in a row and sort of need to bounce back from that in their next game against Texas.
-Xavier got a massive win that they really needed against Connecticut last night 76-72. Depth has been an issue for X, but they were able to hold on yesterday. They’ve now won four out of their last five with the only loss being in overtime at Saint John’s, and have beaten both UConn and Marquette (on the road) in that stretch. Xavier has turned things around and is once again looking like a tournament-caliber team.
-West Virginia, who had been cruising, suffered a somewhat surprising loss at Kansas State yesterday as they fell 73-60.
-North Carolina played with fire in front of a keg of dynamite yesterday and damn near blew themselves up! They needed overtime to get past Boston College at home 102-96. Given where they are and what their tournament resume currently looks like not beating BC at home may have damn near killed them.
-Saint Mary’s got a scare at Washington State, but picked up a pretty nice 80-75 road win. They have looked as good as Gonzaga this season and may challenge them for 1st place in the WCC.
-Both Oklahoma and Arkansas really needed a win yesterday, and Oklahoma got it 65-62 on the road. Arkansas had a chance to win on their last possession, but turned it over and Oklahoma finished things off with a dunk as time expired.
-Cincinnati, who I was trying to think may be turning things around, is NOT turning things around. They were blown into the sun by BYU last night 80-52. It’s looking like the only way Cincinnati can go to the NCAA Tournament will be to buy tickets.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-MARYLAND AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Maryland just picked up their first true road win of the season, and it was a big one at Illinois. They’ll be in even better shape if they can get this one. Indiana is still outside our bubble and needs to string together some wins in order to get on the right side of it.
-NEBRASKA AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). After five straight losses, we have Nebraska outside the bubble, but they are still within reach of it. A win like this would be huge for them, but it’s also not easy to get. Wisconsin is coming off a close loss at UCLA and this should be a bounce-back game for them.
-UAB AT MEMPHIS (American). Memphis is solidly inside the field and should be in the discussion for a protected seed if they’re able to win out, which they are good enough to do.
-FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT NORTH TEXAS (American). North Texas is having a great year at 14-4 and may bet the attention of the committee if they can keep winning at that clip.
-NORTHWESTERN AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). Northwestern must lead the nation in bad luck if you take into account some of the close games they’ve lost. A win like this would be huge for their resume and may make the difference of whether or not they make the field. It’s also a rivalry game. Illinois was having a great year, but was beaten badly in their last game against Maryland, which was a bit of a surprise. They’ll be looking to bounce back this afternoon.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). Texas Tech is having a solid year and should be able to hold serve at home in this one.
Navy (6-14, 3-4) at Army (11-8, 5-2) – 3:30 PM ET (CBS Sports Network)
Today’s UTR Game of the Day heads to the banks of the Hudson River in West Point, New York for the first round of the Army-Navy game in the Patriot League. After a tough stretch earlier this month where Army had lost five of six games, the Black Knights have won five straight games in conference play and could pull into a 3-way tie for the conference lead (along with American and Colgate) with a win today. Josh Scovens led Army with 25 in their last contest – a 76-71 win at Holy Cross.
While Navy ended a 4-game winning streak with a win against Boston University 62-47 at home, they now have a 3-4 mark in conference play. Two of their wins (BU and American) have also come against teams that defeated Army – another sign of parity in the Patriot League this year that does not feature a clear-cut winner yet. Austin Benigni scored 21 points in the aforementioned 62-47 win at home against BU.
Northern Colorado (14-6, 6-1) at Eastern Washington (6-14, 2-5) – 5:00 PM ET (ESPN+)
Last Saturday, we featured the Winwood Cup between Longwood and Winthrop – today we feature the NoCoEWU Cup that pits the Northern Colorado Bears and the Eastern Washington Eagles. Northern Colorado had won eight straight games to take first place outright in the Big Sky – even a loss at the buzzer to Idaho earlier this week couldn’t knock the Bears from the top. Both Langston Reynolds (17.1 PPG) and Isaiah Hawthorne (16.8 PPG) spearhead the Bears’ attack.
Eastern Washington is in a rebuilding mode after most of their players (including the head coach) migrated to Washington State during the offseason. While the Eagles did start off 2-2 in Big Sky play, they have now lost 3 straight games against Idaho, Montana State and Northern Arizona. Andrew Cook averages 15.4 points a game for the Eagles.
-Purdue was expected to beat Michigan, but they weren’t expected to beat them by 27 and dominate the whole game. They were basically up by 20 from the time of the tipoff and it never got close after that.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-IOWA STATE AT ARIZONA STATE (Big 12). Iowa State hasn’t always been perfect, but they’ve been pretty close to it the vast majority of the time and can still get a #1 seed if they keep going like they have been. Arizona State is outside the bubble and could use a big win like this to help boost their resume. Even though it’s a home game it would still be a huge signature win for them.
-KENTUCKY AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Kentucky is having a crazy good year. They’re coming off a home loss to Alabama, but that is hardly a setback. Having said that, they will be challenged on the road today, and this is a big game for them because as good as Kentucky’s profile is, they still only have one true road win. Vandy looks like a solid tournament-caliber team that recently beat Tennessee at home, so they’ll be way up for this one as well.
-TEXAS A&M AT TEXAS (SEC). It’s a rivalry game! And it’s great to have it back as a conference game!! Texas A&M is a fringe protected seed that could use a road win like this, and Texas appears to be a fringe bubble team that could use a win over a highly ranked team like TAMU. This one is important both on and off paper.
-GEORGIA AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida barely escaped at South Carolina earlier this week, but managed the win and is still high in the rankings and in the metrics. Georgia has lost three straight, and their last two were by 3pts or less. It doesn’t get any easier today as they go to one of the toughest road environments in the country. UGA is still inside the bubble for now, but a win like this would be a huge help.
-DUKE AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). This is a hugely important game for Wake. They appear to be squarely on the bubble, and a win today could shoot them way up the seedlist and give their metrics a big boost as well. As for Duke, they are being projected onto our 1-seed line and are so good that they may actually win out. They’ll be tested today, though.
-BAYLOR AT UTAH (Big 12). Baylor hasn’t been 100% for most of the season, and while they’re not in the rankings or where we’re used to seeing them in the seedlist, they are still in good shape overall. They’ve only won one true road game so far, so a win today would really help them out.
-OLE MISS AT MISSOURI (SEC). This is a fascinating game between two teams that are in the rankings, and at times have shone indications that they could be protected seeds. Mizzou is coming off a loss at Texas, and they haven’t been the best road team, but at home they’ve been as tough as anyone. Ole Miss has lost two straight, one in overtime by 3pts and another by just 1 pt, and is looking to bounce back from that. Both teams are solid, but both have room on their resumes for improvement, and a win today would be big.
-HOUSTON AT KANSAS (Big 12). All year long I’ve been saying I thought Houston could be a Final Four team. All year long I’ve also been saying that due to a backloaded schedule, their tournament resume has been flimsy when compared to other top teams up until now. Well, here is a chance to make it un-flimsy! If they go into Kansas and get a win, which I think they are good enough to do, it’s a sign that they are a protected seed caliber team (something most people think already). It’s also a sign that they can be as good as anyone in the Big 12 and can even end up as a #1 seed.
-UCONN AT XAVIER (Big East). Xavier has looked good in a lot of their games. The problem appears to be their depth. They just run out of gas down the stretch. But, if they can play at the level they’ve played at in the last two games, they may have an outside shot at playing their way into the field. Having said that, beating UConn won’t be easy even at home. The Huskies can still get a protected seed if they can finish strong, which they are good enough to do.
-TENNESSEE AT AUBURN (SEC). This is a huge one as far as it being a showcase game. Both are potential #1 seeds, and both are ranked highly in the polls. If Tennessee wins, it greatly strengthens their chances of getting a #1 seed, and perhaps the top #1 seed, which means getting to play in the Atlanta Region, but regardless of the outcome of the game both teams will still be high in the rankings and in a position to get a #1 seed.
-OKLAHOMA AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Oklahoma is right on the bubble and needs a road win like this to help get on the right side of it. Arkansas finally won a conference game earlier this week, but they still have a lot of work to do if they want to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-SMU @ NC State (ACC) – SMU is a modest 14-5, and while they are pretty far outside the bubble they could still reach it if they can blow through their schedule the rest of the way
–Pittsburgh @ Syracuse (ACC) – a classic Big East rivalry!! Pitt is right on the bubble, so every game has a pivotal feel to it
–Mississippi State @ South Carolina (SEC) – Mississippi State is being projected close to a protected seed. Having said that, they’ve lost three of their last four and could really use a road win today
-Michigan State @ Rutgers (Big Ten). Michigan State has a winning streak that dates back to before Thanksgiving. This will be a test from a talented Rutgers team that has underperformed, but it’s still one the Spartans should win
-Seton Hall @ Creighton (Big East) – Creighton still has work to do, but they should stay inside the bubble so long as they hold serve in games like this
–Illinois State @ Bradley (Missouri Valley) – We say this about every game, but if Bradley can win out they should make the field
–Miami OH @ Akron (MAC) – this game won’t impact the bracket, but it is a match-up between two teams that are having big years in the MAC . Both come in unbeaten in MAC play, so it should be a fun one
–Boston College @ North Carolina (ACC) – UNC will fall outside the bubble if they are unable to hold serve in games like this
–New Mexico @ UNLV (Mountain West) – New Mexico is squarely on the bubble and could use this road win. UNLV recently knocked off both San Diego State and Utah State, but then fell to Wyoming at home, so they are a big question-mark every time they take the floor.
–Colorado @ Arizona (Big 12). Arizona is 6-1 in Big 12 play and seems to be getting better and better as the season goes on. They should be able to hold serve at home in this one
–Oregon @ Minnesota (Big Ten) – Oregon is unbeaten away from home and they should remain that way after today. Havig said that, Minnesota can be tough to beat on their floor. They recently knocked off Michigan and followed that up with a win at Iowa.
-TCU @ UCF (Big 12) – UCF is right on the bubble and must hold serve in this one
–Drake @ Missouri State (Missouri Valley) – Drake is right on the bubble and should end up inside of it so long as they can continue to blow through the MVC
-Utah State @ Air Force (Mountain West) – AFA can be very tough to beat. Most teams do it, but most teams don’t do it easily. Utah State does not want to overlook them, and a loss would look really bad on their resume
–Clemson @ Virginia Tech (ACC) – Clemson is having a great overall year at 16-4 and should be able to pick up another conference road win in this one
-West Virginia @ Kansas State (Big 12) – WVU is having a fantastic year, but has lost two out of three and is looking to bounce back from a home loss to Arizona State. It’s a road game, but it’s one they should be able to win
–Wofford @ Samford (SoCon) – this game doesn’t impact the bracket, but this Samford team is good, fun to watch, and these are two of the better teams in the SoCon
-Saint Mary’s @ Washington State (West Coast) – this will be a tough road test for SMC, but it’s one that they are good enough to win
-LSU @ Alabama (SEC) – Bama is one of the best teams in the country and they should have very little trouble holding serve at home in this one
-Cincinnati @ BYU (Big 12) – both teams are outside the bubble and both have a lot of work to do if they want to reach it
–San Diego State @ Nevada (Mountain West) – this is far from the easiest road game, but it’s still one that San Diego State is good enough to win and should win
–Hawaii @ UC Irvine (Big West) – UC Irvine needs to bounce back from their tough loss to UC Riverside on Thursday. I still think they can end up inside the bubble if they win out
Before anyone actually starts to pick apart the bracket I want to make sure everyone knows what they are looking at. This IS NOT what I think the Selection Committee will do on Selection Sunday, nor is it what I think the committee would do if today were Selection Sunday. For the sake of this exercise, I don’t give a damn about the Selection Committee. If someone from Bracket Matrix sees this and puts this on there, it will compromise the matrix. I’m not trying to guess the committee. Jon Teitel does that! He is FANTASTIC at doing it! I couldn’t compete with him if I wanted to. If that’s what you’re looking for, you can check out his bracket HERE
-If I were king, and in charge of everything, and the season ended today, this is who I would have in the bracket and where I would have them seeded. I’m also doing this on the basis that if the season ENDED TODAY, this is what it would be. I think Houston is a Final Four team, but when you look at who’ve they’ve played and who they’ve beaten, I feel that as of today everyone I have seeded ahead of them has done more. By the end of the year it wouldn’t shock me at all if Houston were a #1 seed, but that’s now how I choose to do it.
I have a few comments below, and some staff members may chime in as well. Understand that if they disagree with ANYTHING that I have done, then THEY ARE WRONG!!!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: UCF, Arizona State, UC San Diego, Bradley, North Texas, Xavier, Indiana, Dayton, Boise State, Nebraska, Penn State, Cincinnati, San Francisco
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-I mentioned Houston earlier. They were my preseason pick to win it all. I still think they can win it all, and I think they’ll win the Big 12, and will be shocked if they’re seeded any worse than the 2-line come Selection Sunday. But as of now they don’t have any wins against any of the teams that are ahead of them, so I don’t have them seeded that high yet. But…I will.
-A team like Oregon actually seems to be better away from home than they are at home. They are actually kind of tough to place. They have some great wins, but then a smattering of home losses to teams that they clearly appear to be better than.
-Gonzaga on the 8-line may seem low. Well…show me where at any point this season they’ve looked better than that! This was one of my Final Four teams coming into the season, and while they haven’t looked so bad that they should be left out, they’ve also not looked all that much better than an 8 seed at any point this year.
-Maryland on the 10 line may seem really low to a lot of people as well. Realize that until they beat Illinois last night, which was their first road win and first win of any real substance, I didn’t have them in at all.
-Drake and UC Irvine (despite the road loss yesterday) are Under the Radar teams that I have seeded inside the bubble and ahead of the First Four. I realize that both need to pretty much win out in order to stay there, but both are really good and have earned it so far.
COMMENTS FROM THE STAFF (coming soon…maybe):
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