CLICK HERE for the latest HOOPS HD REPORT Video Podcast
NEWS AND NOTES
-For the CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK VIDEO NOTEBOOK: DAY 4 – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Toledo and Central Michigan – CLICK HERE
-Oklahoma State knocked off Oklahoma in another thriller to complete the season sweep. Oklahoma State is now looking like a potential protected seed. There are, in fact, seven teams in the Big Twelve within reach of a protected seed, and that is just insane!!!
-Saint Bonaventure needed to hold serve the rest of the way, and failed to do that last night with the loss to Dayton. When you categorically look at the Bonnies, there are a lot of indicators to suggest they will be selected. Their metrics are high, they have some decent (but not great) wins, and for the most part they’ve avoided bad losses. But, having played so few games they are still hard to evaluate.
-Rutgers was blown off the court by Nebraska in what had to be one of the more surprising losses of the season. Nebraska isn’t good, and losing to them on the road in and of itself would be a setback, but not necessarily alarming. Getting blown out by them is really surprising. I don’t think Rutgers is in any real trouble of missing the field, but their upcoming game against Minnesota now seems a lot more important.
-North Carolina trailed for most of the game against Syracuse, and while they came roaring back late and actually had a chance to win, they couldn’t get it done. North Carolina is just 3-7 on the road, and while I still think they are (barely) on the right side of the bubble, there are reasons to leave them out. Some are saying this was a big win for Syracuse, and it was, but still…it came against a team that’s 3-7 on the road. That’s not the kind of win that’s going to make me anoint anyone as a tournament team.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-BAYLOR AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12). This is a match-up between a Baylor team that appears to be on the #1 line (despite them coming off their first loss of the season), and a West Virginia team that’s trying to get up to the #1 line. WVU has a path to get there, but it probably needs to involve winning today.
-ARKANSAS AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC). Arkansas has had a great couple of weeks and has gone from looking like they were outside the bubble to looking like a potential protected seed. They need to pick up another road win today and keep that momentum going.
-ILLINOIS AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). This is the second game today where we have a team that looks like they are on the #1 line (Michigan) and a team that can play their way up to the #1 line (Illinois). This one should be a great game. If Michigan can win out they may have a claim to the overall #1 seed given the strength of their schedule.
-AUBURN AT ALABAMA (SEC). It’s a rivalry game, but it also appears to be a bit of a mismatch. Alabama is a solid protected seed and will likely end up on the #2 line if they can finish strong and play like they have been over the past several weeks.
-TEXAS AT IOWA STATE (Big 12). Texas is in a bit of a tailspin, but they are a long way from panic mode. They have some low hanging fruit tonight and they need to take advantage of what should be a very winnable conference road game.
-TCU AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). Texas Tech is in great shape and still has a good chance of ending up as a protected seed. They need to hold serve in games like this, though.
-FRESNO STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). Boise State is coming off two straight losses, and while both were close games, and while they’re not in any trouble so long as they hold serve, they also need to make damn sure they hold serve!
-XAVIER AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Xavier is hovering around the bubble and needs to get this win tonight. It’s a conference road win, and road wins can help solidify their resume.
-INDIANA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). This is a very bubblicious game. Both teams really need this. Michigan State has been playing better and is probably in better shape than the Hoosiers, but both teams are kind of drowning right now and need this win to get their heads above the water.
-DUKE AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). This is another bubblicious game that both teams really need to win. Georgia Tech is one of our last teams in, and Duke is out of our field and needs to string some wins together down the stretch to get on the right side of the bubble.
-VANDERBILT AT LSU (SEC). LSU is in relatively good shape and will stay that way so long as they hold serve. That would mean not losing games like this one.
-WISCONSIN AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Purdue just keeps getting better and better and they now appear to be within striking distance of a protected seed. A win tonight would be another step forward. Wisconsin appears to be safely in the field barring a collapse, but a win like this would certainly help move them up the seedlist.
-MEMPHIS AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American). Memphis has been playing really well lately, but they still need to pretty much win out and beat Houston in the process in order to land inside the bubble. They do have a path, but it is a tough one.
-KENTUCKY AT OLE MISS (SEC). Ole Miss is another bubble team that’s trying to hold serve. Kentucky has been playing better so while the Wildcats seemingly need to win the SEC Tournament to make the field, Ole Miss can’t take this win for granted.
Hoops HD Staff Bracket Projections (From The Puppet): March 1st
For Part 1 Jon Teitel’s Conference Tournament Awards and Handing Out the Hardware – CLICK HERE
For today’s News, Notes, and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE
Before you go any further, I want to make sure you know what you are looking at. I am NOT a bracketologist. I am making no attempt whatsoever to guess what the real committee will do on Selection Sunday, nor am I trying to suppose what the real committee would do if today was Selection Sunday. If you’re looking for a a selection committee guessing expert’s picks, CLICK HERE to check out Jon Teitel. He is one of the most accurate people on the planet when it comes to guessing that stuff.
This is simply what the field would look like if I were king for a day. I’ve posted some comments below the bracket to explain some of the picks, and below that there will be comments from other people on the Hoops HD Staff. If any of them disagree with anything I have done, THEY ARE WRONG!!!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Xavier, Louisville, VCU, Stanford, Drake, Duke, Utah State, Memphis
COMMENTS FROM DAVID: I’ll start with what I did with Rutgers. I had them in on the #9 line, but then decided to remove them and replace them with Harvard. This is one of those things that I’ve done that I do not foresee the actual committee doing. Harvard did not even play any games this year. But, Chad is a Rutgers alum. I do not like Chad, and I want to annoy him, so…sorry Rutgers, YOU GUYS ARE OUT!! Harvard gets your spot instead!!
-Nearly everyone is putting Louisville in their fields. The general consensus is generally correct, so the actual committee will probably have Louisville in as well. While I have them much closer after their win at Duke, I still don’t have them all the way in. I just don’t see it. Their resume consists of a win at Duke, and two home wins against teams who actually have winning records on the road (Virginia Tech and Western Kentucky). That’s decent, but it isn’t solid. Everyone in my field has seemingly done more than that, which is why I don’t have Louisville in yet. The rest of our staff is gushing all over them, so our mock committee will probably take them, but this is simply MY bracket, and right now I don’t think they belong!
-A team I do like is Wichita State. I don’t understand why they aren’t more of a consensus selection amongst selection committee guessers, but many aren’t taking them. They have a home win against Houston, another nice win against Ole Miss who is good at home and on the bubble, and no real bad losses at all. This is a solid team. When you look at three of their four losses, they were somewhat close games against Houston (who they later beat), Oklahoma State, and Missouri. I’m not saying they belong in on the first ballot, but they look to be inside the bubble to me.
-I have six Big 12 teams as protected seeds. I’m pretty sure no conference has ever had six protected seeds. Categorically this is impossible, but when I look at the profiles and watch the teams on the court that is just who I like.
STAFF COMMENTS
From Chad:
– I will start on the 1 line. I agree with David that Ohio State has fallen to a 2 seed, but I do not think Illinois (who recently lost a game to Michigan State) is the replacement team. I would go with West Virginia. Illinois does have five Tier 1 road wins to WVU’s three, but the Mountaineers (at Texas, at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma State) quality way outweighs the Illini (at Wisconsin, at Penn State, at Indiana, at Duke and at Minnesota). If you gauge road wins against teams on the top 6 seeds lines, WVU wins the battle 3-0!
– I think the Big 12 has seven teams arguably in play for the top 4 seed lines, and have no problem with David putting 6 of them up there, but Texas Tech should not have been one of them. The Red Raiders are heading in the wrong direction fast and are now only 7-7 in conference and 3 games under .500 against the top two quadrants. That is a 6 seed profile, 5 at best. They just are not there at the moment. I would have taken Texas in their spot, or gone to the Big Ten for a Purdue team whose profile looks better and better each day.
– It is clear that David did not graduate Harvard or Rutgers or even Puppet Clown College when he decided to put an ineligible Harvard team into RU’s spot. I will just disregard this pick entirely. #StupidPuppet
– I do not understand why Seton Hall is in and avoided the First Four. The Pirates are now 13-10 overall, are coming off losses to Georgetown and Butler, and are playing like absolute garbage. They have UConn at home and a trip to St John’s left, and I do not think they can win either game at the moment. I would have this team in the NIT.
– I also would not have three of his First Four teams in. Richmond had their chances the past couple of weeks and blew them, losing at VCU and at Saint Louis. They are out for now. Ole Miss just lost a game at Vanderbilt and is now 13-10 overall and 8-8 in the SEC. That is not a tournament profile. St John’s is even further out than Seton Hall — they are playing lousy basketball and are just a few games over .500.
– Instead of David’s picks, I would have Louisville, Drake, VCU and Xavier in. Louisville has a pretty “clean” profile with only one bad loss on it and only 5 losses overall. In the ACC. They have 7 wins against teams in the field or seriously under consideration. I can live with a lack of Tier 1 wins if a team is 7-0 against Tier 2, and all 7 are quality opponents. The Cardinals are in.
– Drake also belongs in, though they have a very slim margin for error. They probably need to lose in the MVC title game to Loyola-Chicago if they want an at-large bid. Bu they are good enough to win the next two games and get there. VCU is still the second best A10 team in my opinion, ahead of Richmond — whom the just beat a week ago. Xavier just beat Creighton. I guess David ignored that game entirely when he left the Musketeers out.
– Eastern Washington is red hot but is not a 14 seed. They have barely slipped from a 16 up to a 15. And while I get that the Lopes have slipped up a couple times recently, GCU is better than the 16 line. I guess David should probably try watching one of our HoopsHD Under the Radar podcasts so he can learn more about these teams.
From John:
– Not having been part of the podcasts for a month for a little sabbatical, my observations are not going to be influenced by groupthink. Bear that in mind.
– Ohio State is trending in the wrong direction with three straight losses, two of which were at home against Michigan and Iowa. The other one was on the road against a Michigan State team that is by no means a tournament lock, even though the Spartans are listed as a 9 seed. Getting a win against Indiana and at least one against Michigan would steer them in that direction.
– Texas Tech is grossly benefiting by being in the Big 12 this season. They have season sweeps of Texas and Oklahoma, but they are 1-8 against the rest of the Tier 1/Tier 2 teams on their schedule. I think they’re first-ballot quality, but by no means a protected seed.
– I know it’s risky to agree with the Puppet and not Chad, but I think Xavier isn’t quite ready to crack the field even with a win against Creighton. I know they’ve lost seven league games to COVID-19, but when your chances are limited, you best not be losing games like UConn and Seton Hall at home. They do not have any margin for error and must win at Georgetown/Marquette this week.
– But he chose the Johnnies instead? Losing at home to Marquette and DePaul is bad and they only have wins at home against Nova and at UConn to offset that. They’re 5-8 against the top 2 tiers – not exactly NCAA material yet.