Hoops HD

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This week, it falls upon staff member John Stalica to make the weekly Hoops HD Staff Bracket. This is not like Jon Teitel where he attempts to guess what the Selection Committee will ultimately decide, but rather how we feel the bracket should look personally.

And here we go:

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Richmond, Rhode Island, Cincinnati

Others Considered: Utah State, Purdue, Arkansas, Alabama, Memphis, South Carolina, Georgetown, Syracuse, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Clemson, Furman

NOTES FROM JOHN:

– There is little doubt that Kansas-Baylor will form the first #1 seeds in the bracket, but we are now getting to a point where we not only wonder who gets first in line for #1 in the West, it’s time to take a serious look as to how soon Dayton could crash the #1 line should they get the regular season and A-10 conference title along the way (assuming no toe-stubbings at either Rhode Island or at home against GW). Nonetheless, Gonzaga should clinch the #1 seed in the West with a WCC Tournament championship, and San Diego State still controls their destiny in the Mountain West Tournament (sponsored by Con Expo/Con AGG).

– I think Seton Hall’s time on the 3 line is only temporary, but it is a blessing in disguise since they would likely be shipped out West as a 2. (Also keep in mind that Dayton cannot be in the Midwest since the #1 overall seed and #5 overall seed cannot meet in the regional final.) They will earn at least a #2 seed should they be able to beat either Villanova at home or Creighton on the road to secure the outright Big East regular season crown.

– Michigan State and Ohio State have launched themselves into protected seed territory this week – the Spartans were the only team to win at Maryland this year and Ohio State now has 4 protected seed-caliber wins themselves (Villanova, Penn State and Maryland at home and Kentucky on a neutral site). Both teams will face off in East Lansing this week for what could be a Big Ten Championship preview in a couple of weeks.

– It’s easy to say that West Virginia and Butler are trending downward, but Colorado is also joining the downhill stampede after extending their losing streak to three games. Or maybe they’re just trying to be Good Samaritans in throwing a life raft to both UCLA and Stanford to get them in the NCAA Tournament as well. There is no excuse for losing at Cal, though.

– This was actually a great week for teams on the bubble – Providence made the biggest splash by winning at Villanova to emphatically get themselves into the field, both UCLA and USC made their cases with home sweeps against Arizona State/Arizona, and Texas is continuing their improvement with a much needed win at Texas Tech. Wichita State was staring down the barrel of a loaded shotgun at SMU after trailing by 24 points in the 2nd half, but they came back to save their place at the dance table for now.

– But not all was rosy for their bubble buddies – Cincinnati blew their last chance for a Quad 1 win at Houston, and Utah State also lost at New Mexico and Rhode Island lost to Saint Louis at home. Utah State and Cincinnati really need to win their conference tournaments to get in now, although Rhode Island still has a couple more bites at the apple that is Dayton to get in.

– The bracket does say that Robert Morris gets the NEC autobid, but we at Hoops HD choose to salute the Merrimack Warriors at winning the outright regular season crown and voice our displeasure that they are not being given the opportunity to play for the NEC Tournament championship and potential NCAA bid. They have said that they will accept a forthcoming CBI/CIT invitation.

STAFF COMMENTS:

COMMENTS FROM CHAD

– I thought John was a Big East guy.  Yet he completely crapped on the league among the protected seeds.  Seton Hall, Villanova and Creighton all have 2 seed cases, and at least two of them belong up there over teams like Maryland and Louisville.  Seton Hall has 10 Tier 1 wins, while Nova has 7 of them, and 7 more against Tier 2.  Only Seton Hall has a loss to a team not in the field.  Louisville (with only 4 Tier 1 wins and multiple losses to teams not in the field) just does not make sense to me up here at all.  And to put Villanova all the way down on the 5 line is just a flat out insult!

– I guess John tried to make up for crapping on Nova by putting Butler all the way up on the 5 line — which is at least 2 lines too high for them.  The Bulldogs are only 8-8 in conference now and have a couple of questionable losses at DePaul and home to Georgetown.  They are certainly safely in the field — just not this safely.

– Other than getting the Big East horribly wrong, I think John did a pretty good job.  I would have had Rutgers in the First Four, because the lack of road wins really hurts — although the metrics and the quality home wins is probably just enough to keep them in the field for now.  I would have left NC State out and put Richmond in instead, though it was almost a coin flip for me between those two teams and I cannot complain much.

– I do like the decision to include Texas in the field.  The Longhorns had a great week, and went from an afterthought to squarely in the heart of bubble talk.  This is especially true with the A10 down from 3 bids to only 1 or 2 (with Rhode Island having deservedly fallen off), and the Mountain West down to only 1 team (with Utah State gone for now as well).  I do see a path to an at-large bid for both those teams, but it will require winning out to the conference title game and maybe getting a little bit of help as well.

– Finally, while I do agree they belong in the margins of the discussion, I am glad that Arkansas is not in this field.  The Razorbacks are only 6-10 in a conference that only has 4 other teams in, and their only win against the at-large field was at Indiana.  If they can beat LSU at home on Wednesday and avoid the upset at A&M on Saturday, I may be willing to discuss them again.  Until then, enjoy the NIT.

FROM DAVID

-I agree that Colorado is slipping, but Stalica must think they are free falling.  I was thinking more of the bottom of the 6/top of the 7th line range.  But he’s got them as an 8 seed.  This is also a team that nearly won at Oregon.  Not sure how happy I am about playing them if I’m Baylor.  And besides, a conference match-up in the Round of 32 is not allowed!!…..oh wait, nevermind (only those of you who have been following us for a long time will fully appreciate that).

-Stalica also appears to have Oklahoma safely inside his bubble.  I have them right on the edge of mine.  The win at Texas Tech was all kinds of huge, but to have them that close to the top half of the bracket just seems a bit high.

-I totally agree with the UCLA pick.  I don’t know why others aren’t bigger on them.  If anything they may end up on the #8 or #9 line before they’re done.  They are arguably the hottest team in the Pac 12 right now, and if they win their next four they’ll have a 12 game winning streak with 7 true road wins, three more P12 tournament wins to add on to that, and a 16-5 overall conference record.  It’s not crazy to think they can win the Pac 12 Tournament.  They haven’t beaten Oregon, but they’ve beaten everyone else that many would say has a chance to win it.  Some of those teams, they’ve beaten twice.

-Stalica has Duke about where the actual committee will.  I think they belong down on the #4 line, and definitely not two lines ahead of Villanova.  Nova has slipped a little bit, but at least they’ve been slipping against Tournament teams.  Duke’s been slipping against NIT teams.  Again, and again, and again.