SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATE
-WAGNER (Northeast) – Out with a loss AND wins by Bryant and Mount St Mary’s
NEWS AND NOTES
-If you missed yesterday, then I’m sorry. People who say they can’t wait for The Tournament to start are really missing out if they want to just skip over days like yesterday. One of the things that makes the NCAA Tournament so great is how the whole season plays out and shapes it. Quite a bit of shaping took place yesterday!!
-Kansas got a big win at Baylor in what was a VERY impressive showing. The game was close all throughout, but Kansas appeared to be in control. Every time Baylor would pick up some momentum and get the bonkers crowd into it, Kansas would come up with a big play. They held on to win 64-61 in one of the most singularly impressive wins that any team has managed this season. Having said that, I don’t think it knocks Baylor off the #1 line, or for that matter even out of the second spot on the #1 line. You just don’t move down when you lose to a team that’s ranked that high.
-Gonzaga also went down on the road as BYU pretty much led from tip to buzzer. Every time the Zags looked like they were making a run to get control of the game, BYU would make a big play. It’s a huge win for the Cougars and a notable loss for the Zags since winning out would have almost assured them the #1 seed in the West. I think it is still likely that they can get a #1 seed if they win out through the WCC Tournament, but perhaps not the #1 seed in the West. Then again…
-San Diego State suffered their first loss of the season when they fell at home to UNLV. This was probably one of the bigger surprises of the day when you consider UNLV hadn’t even looked like an NIT team all that often, and that SDSU was at home. This is where the hairsplitting starts. This was a “worse loss” than the one Gonzaga suffered, but San Diego State has won at BYU, and now that win looks a lot better since it remains BYU’s only home loss. Unlike the AP and Coaches Polls, the Selection Committee typically steers away from recency bias, and when you look at the top of San Diego State’s resume, it looks a lot better now. They won at BYU and Gonzaga didn’t, they have a neutral floor win against a Creighton team that’s looking as good as Oregon (and maybe better), and they have another against Arizona State. It will be interesting to see how this is sorted out, but in my personal opinion San Diego State has the better resume.
-Oregon came from behind at Arizona to force overtime, then held on to win 73-72 in what was a wild finish to a wild game. Oregon hit what appeared (and ultimately was) a game winning shot with less than two seconds to go, but ended up fouling Arizona on the inbounds play, which sent the Wildcats to the line with a chance to win or tie. They did neither, as they missed both freethrows.
-West Virginia lost to TCU, and one has to really start questioning how good the Mountaineers are. They’re still a team that should easily land in the top half of the bracket, but perhaps not as a protected seed.
-Providence picked up another big win as they knocked off Marquette at home. They have been outside the bubble all year long, but are getting closer and closer to it.
-Houston fell at Memphis. Houston still looks like they will safely make the field, but they may not be wearing white in the Round of 64.
-Furman and UNC Greensboro held on for dear life as they both narrowly avoided what would have been damaging losses. Their chances of making the field as at-larges are probably less than 50%, but they are still greater than zero.
-Michigan picked another really good road win at Purdue, so that part of Michigan’s resume is no longer a problem. As for Purdue, it’s looking more and more like all of their resume is a problem.
-Oklahoma was blown out at Oklahoma State. That’s just not a good look for a team that’s not all that far inside the bubble.
-We had carnage all over the Atlantic Ten yesterday as Rhode Island, who was inside the bubble (but barely) fell on the road to a rather weak Davidson team, and Richmond (who is squarely on the bubble) fell at Saint Bonaventure. That’s a big setback for two teams that had been playing really well and whose chances of making the field seemed pretty good. They can both still get in, but I’d say they are now out of strikes.
-Georgetown, another team that was squarely on the bubble, went on the road and lost to DePaul. That will certainly set them back some, but I guess the good news for them is that they have so many chances at big wins that they fan offset it. I guess the bad news for them is that every game they have remaining will be tough to win.
-Last and definitely not least, UCLA is on an absolute tear. Their resume probably still isn’t NCAA Tournament caliber, but right now on the court they are playing like an NCAA Tournament team and have been for some time. They won at Colorado last night, which is the second time they’ve beaten the Buffs. They’re 9-2 in their last 11 games with road wins at Arizona and Colorado. Their last three regular season games are against Arizona State, Arizona, and USC. The chances are there for them to land inside the bubble.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-PENN STATE AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Penn State is still in the hunt for a first place finish in the Big Ten, and well within the range of earning a protected seed. Indiana is trying to stay on the right side of the bubble and a win today could certainly help them out with that.
-WICHITA STATE AT CINCINNATI (American). Wichita State is fading a little bit, has looked better in their last couple of games and a road win today would make them a lot safer. Cincinnati is now outside our bubble and needs a big finish to the season, and probably needs a win today.
-RUTGERS AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Rutgers needs another road win in order to make the field, and as tough as it is to win at Wisconsin, this is probably their best chance. Wisconsin is pretty far inside our bubble, but isn’t exactly a lock yet.
-SAINT JOHN’S AT SETON HALL (Big East). Seton Hall is still the first place team in the Big East, is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, and still has a solid chance of ending up as high as the #2 line if they can put together a strong finish to the season.
-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT NORTHERN IOWA (Missouri Valley). If Northern Iowa wins out they have a decent shot at getting an at-large, but it still isn’t necessarily a lock. Any loss prior to the semis of the conference tournament probably knocks them out, though.
-MERRIMACK AT MOUNT SAINT MARY’S (Northeast). A bit of history today as Merrimack can clinch at least a share of first place with a win today, making them (I think) the first ever team to finish in first place as a first year transitional program.
-MARYLAND AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Maryland just keeps winning and has a pretty wide path to ending up as high as the #2 line. Ohio State is relatively safe, but a win today would certainly help out their resume.
-BUTLER AT CREIGHTON (Big East). Both teams are in the rankings, both teams are virtual locks to land in the top half of the bracket, and both could improve their resumes even more with a win today. Creighton is just a game behind Seton Hall, so they’ve still got a chance at a first place finish.
-USC AT UTAH (Pac 12). USC is inside our bubble and will remain safe so long as they can hold serve for the rest of the season. That means winning games like today even if they are the road team.
-STANFORD AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac 12). Stanford isn’t off the board yet, but they’re 2-7 in their last nine games and pretty much need to win out.
