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NEWS AND NOTES
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Bowling Green and Akron – CLICK HERE
-For Jon Teitel’s interview with Hall of Fame coach Billie Moore – CLICK HERE
-The Florida State v Duke game was a very well played game that either team could have won, and even though Florida State lost I think I’m more sold on them being a solid #2 seed than I was before the game started.
-Baylor v Texas was a defensive struggle, but Baylor held on to win 52-45. Texas Tech hosted TCU, and did not treat them nicely. They totally blew the Horned Frogs out of the building 88-42.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-PENN STATE AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Penn State didn’t get a protected seed from the actual committee, but I still think they have a path to it that is within their abilities, especially if they can pick up another big road win tonight. Purdue has been schizophrenic all season long, but are now in a stretch where they have won four out of five, which includes two road wins, so they may finally be reaching a point of playing consistently well.
-KENTUCKY AT VANDERBILT (SEC). Kentucky also not getting a protected seed from the committee, and if they didn’t have one before then winning at Vandy isn’t the kind of game that’s going to put them over the top, but I do think they have a reasonable path to get there and are continuing to play better as the season goes along.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT OLE MISS (SEC). It’s a rivalry game that features a Mississippi State team that’s on the bubble and who needs to avoid losing on the road to an Ole Miss team that may be on the NIT bubble.
-ARKANSAS AT TENNESSEE (SEC). The Razorbacks are on the bubble and need to win this game to show that they can win on the road against sub-tournament caliber teams.
-NC STATE AT SYRACUSE (ACC). This is the bubblicious game of the night. Maybe the bubblicious game of the year. Both teams are right on the bubble, and both really need this win to help distance themselves from the other bubble teams.
-RHODE ISLAND AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). This game deserves far more attention than it is likely to get. Dayton is unbeaten in conference (10-0) and is beating their opponents by an average of 14.1ppg. It took Rhody a little longer to get going, but after losing their conference opener, they’ve won ten straight, which is as many wins as Dayton. Their margin of victory is 12.8ppg. It’s not as good, but they are playing at a level that is actually closer to Dayton than what most people realize, and if they can somehow win this game I would argue that it not only puts them inside the bubble, but warrants consideration for the first ballot. It’s the first of two meetings, and perhaps three if they face each other in the A10 Tournament.
-NEBRASKA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Maryland leads the Big Ten and has started to rack up some nice road wins. They should be able to hold serve tonight and continue to make a strong case that they are a solid protected seed.
-MICHIGAN STATE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). I’m not as big a believer in Michigan State as the committee seems to be. At least, not right now. If they can win this game I’ll start to feel a lot better about them. I do think that they are both going in on the first ballot, and that this is a good resume building opportunity for both of them.
-MISSOURI AT LSU (SEC). In their last games, LSU has lost a stunner at Vanderbilt, and an overtime thriller at Auburn at the buzzer. They are still in good shape, and this should be an easy win for them tonight, which would help get their mental health back.
-NOTRE DAME AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Virginia continues to improve their resume bit by bit. They nearly upset Louisville over the weekend, which would have improved their resume by quite a bit more than a little bit, but the NCAAs is still within their reach. They need to take care of business tonight against a Notre Dame team that’s been playing pretty well for the last couple of weeks.
-UTAH STATE AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West). On paper, this game doesn’t look like much, but Colorado State has won nine of their last ten, so if Utah State goes on the road and beat them should (HOPEFULLY) get the attention of the committee and get them a little more credit than what it appears to be on the surface.
-NEW MEXICO AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). If San Diego State wins out, they will be a #1 seed.
Bracket Projection (Staff Bracket) – Monday, February 10th
-For Today’s UTR Game of the Day, and other News, Notes, and Games – CLICK HERE
There are only four weeks remaining in the regular season for most of the major conferences and only three weeks remaining in the regular season for most of the under-the-radar conferences, so we are beginning to get into crunch time with our bracket projections. This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the bracket projection – this is his bracket and NOT a projection of the Selection Committee:
First 4 Out: Minnesota, Memphis, NC State, Cincinnati
Other teams considered: Texas, Syracuse, Utah State, VCU, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Furman, UNC-Greensboro
NOTES FROM JOHN:
– While the real NCAA Selection Committee valued teams like Dayton, West Virginia, Villanova and Michigan State quite highly, I’m not completely sold that they should have been seeded as high as they were. I think teams like Florida State and Penn State were undersold, especially the Nittany Lions. I agree that their nonconference SOS is much higher than what you would expect of a protected seed, but my feeling is that it is 1)badly skewed by 4 teams in the bottom 30 of the NET and 2) offset by a dearth of quality wins like Maryland and Michigan State on the road along with a respectable 6-4 record away from Happy Valley.
– Auburn is looking more and more like a team that had one bad week and their quality wins are starting to look more indicative of very high metrics that the Tigers currently possess. With wins against Kentucky and LSU now in hand, Auburn is looking like the favorite to win the SEC right now.
– Purdue and Xavier are a pair of teams that I’m warming up to in the last two weeks, especially the Boilers. Their overall record is ghastly (not unlike Wisconsin), but they are getting more quality wins AND blowout wins in the cases of Michigan State and Iowa. They also got a quality win at Indiana.
– And speaking of the Hoosiers, it is deja vu all over again in Bloomington. It was about this time last season that they went into a deep midseason slump. I still think they’re an NCAA Tournament caliber team, but they would no longer fit the criteria of a “first ballot” team right now. They are only 3-5 away from home with their lone true road win coming at Nebraska. Rutgers will start to have the same question marks if they are unable to win at Ohio State or any of their remaining 3 road games after that.
– I had BYU as my last #9 seed and Mississippi State as my first #10 seed on my overall seed list, but bracketing rules pushed BYU down a seed line for this bracket.
– Arizona State is the only First Four team I felt comfortable placing in the field, and the profiles of teams like Wichita State, Florida, Stanford, Minnesota, NC State, Memphis and Cincinnati smell real bad right now. In the case of the three teams from the American, there might not be enough air freshener to get another at-large team besides Houston in without someone stealing a bid in the conference tournament.
– Prior to Saturday, I would have had Bowling Green as my MAC representative and a likely #14 seed, but with the loss of Dylan Frye (who left the team for personal reasons) and two upcoming games against Akron without him, I’m putting the Zips in as my MAC auto-bid for now.
COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF
FROM DAVID.
-I totally agree with John and disagree with the committee on Michigan State. The actual committee giving them a protected seed didn’t make much sense, and seeding them ahead of Penn State made no sense at all. When you look at the merit, Penn State seems better in every category accept OOC SOS, which is an important category in the sense that you need to play good teams so you can beat good teams and impress the committee, but should also not be a disqualifier when you’ve beaten better teams than someone else despite playing a weaker overall schedule.
-I’m starting to like Maryland more now that they’ve won at Indiana and at Illinois. My biggest gripe with them was that I thought too many people were seeing that they had beaten good teams, but not seeing that in some of those cases the good teams they had beaten, while good overall, hadn’t played well on the road, and were overvaluing some of their home wins. But, the win at Illinois was very legit, and two of their four road losses were close games at Wisconsin and at Seton Hall, who are both obviously very tough teams to beat on the road.
-Stalica’s bubble perplexes me. I do not get why he selected Arizona State, much less why he says they were the only team he was comfortable putting in the First Four. And while he didn’t put Minnesota, NC State, or Memphis in, he did almost put them in for some strange reason. I think that Cincinnati, Syracuse, Utah State, East Tennessee State (who he has in, but below Arizona State), all have better paper resumes. Not only that, I think they would all beat Arizona State (and Memphis, and NC State, and Minnesota) on a neutral floor if given the chance.
-And he has Florida in the First Four?? Oh, wait. I actually agree with that one. A case could be made that Florida doesn’t belong in at all.
FROM CHAD:
– Let me start with Penn State as well, as I agree with John and David that the Bracket Preview this past weekend undervalued them. One thing that a lot of people are forgetting is that the Big Ten expanded to a 20 game conference schedule this season. That means 2 less non-conference games replaced by two more games against one of the deepest conferences we have ever seen. If you want to knock the Nittany Lions for a 95 overall SOS, I can understand that, but don’t knock them for the N/C SOS when it is going to end up being less than 1/3 of their total schedule (and really it is just four sub-300 games that are really pulling that number down).
– I would have Houston at least 2 seed lines higher. I know the rest of the American is fading, but the Cougars are poised to run away with what is still one of the top 7 or 8 conferences in the country, and are just looking incredibly good on the court right now. To tell a 1 seed you may have to play this team in the second round could be a crime. I would have them on the 6 line myself, and could make a case for the 5 if I had to.
– I am not certain Mississippi State belongs in, and if they do, they should be in Dayton playing in he First Four. A 9 seed is way too high for a team that has not beaten anyone that is clearly in the field (Arkansas and at Florida are bubble team wins), and has two losses to sub-100 teams (and another non-tournament team loss at Alabama).
– There are two A-10 teams that John left out which I believe, right now, should be right in contention — VCU and Richmond. The Spiders have a very interesting resume as Rhode Island’s rise in the standings gives them two wins away from home against tourney teams (they also beat Wisconsin on a neutral court).
– Finally, while NC State did not make John’s field, I cannot figure out why they are even close (first four out). Honestly, if I had to pick another ACC team, I would take Syracuse first (whom John at least considered) and Notre Dame next. The Irish have quietly won 4 straight and, with trips to both Virginia and Duke in store this week, will certainly have a chance to put their name right in the thick of tournament talk.