I want to start by making sure everyone knows what they are looking at. I am NOT trying to guess what the actual selection committee will do on Selection Sunday, nor am I trying to suppose what the selection committee would do if the season ended today. For the sake of this exercise, I don’t give a damn about the selection committee. Furthermore, I know I’ve done some things that they are very unlikely to do. So, if you tweet at me about how I’m an idiot and make some reference to the selection committee, I’m going to tweet back at you that you’re an idiot who does not take time to read.
I must say that this bracket is a work of excellence. Everything I do is excellent, and nothing I do should ever be questions or debated. Yet, there are some members of the Hoops HD Staff that are going to do just that. I have some notes below the bracket, and below that will be some comments from the staff. If they disagree with anything that I’ve done, then they are wrong!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Tulsa, NC State, Providence, SMU, Memphis, Utah State, Cincinnati, Alabama, Minnesota, Georgetown, Xavier, Arizona State, Purdue, VCU
NOTES ON THE BRACKET FROM DAVID
-So the rules for this are that it is entirely to our discretion to build these brackets the way we want, and then the criticism is allowed to fly. Last year at about this time I selected a division 2 team for my bracket because I didn’t like any of the teams on the bubble. Today, I am once again abusing my executive privilege and have selected Merrimack as my Northeast Conference champion!! Merrimack is not eligible for the automatic bid, but I think I may have found a loop hole!! A conference awards its automatic bid to the conference champion. That means it should go to the first place team, unless the first place team loses in the conference tournament. Since Merrimack will not lose in the conference tournament, they should get the bid!! I plan on taking this case all the way to the top of the NCAA if I have to!!
-Anyway, on a more serious note, I do believe that the real committee would give a #1 seed to San Diego State. I actually don’t have a problem with that, but I still have them on my #2 line. I just can’t put them ahead of a team like Duke that has multiple wins away from home against protected seeds whereas San Diego State doesn’t have any. It’s also worth pointing out that a #2 seed probably serves them better because unless the committee ranks them higher than Gonzaga they may bet sent all the way to the East Region in New York. So…maybe I’m actually doing them a favor by not putting them on the #1 line.
-I’m starting to slide teams down that lack true road wins, most notably Rutgers. They are just 1-6 in true road games and I think they need at least one or two more in order to have any sort of a case of belonging in the top half of the bracket.
-East Tennessee State and Northern Iowa are both inside the bubble. Here is something else that may not be obvious, but so is New Mexico State. That last selection may be surprising and I’m almost certain it is something the committee will not do. Here is my argument for it. When they are at full strength, they are unbeaten. Not only that, but with a full strength roster, I think they would beat all four of my First Four teams on a neutral floor. I know it’s not fair to factor in last season, but a 29 win team that nearly beat a Final Four team (Auburn) in the Round of 64 who returns basically all of their top players and who is unbeaten when they are healthy is NOT a team that a #4 or a #3 seed wants to see in the Round of 64. I did it partially because I think they deserve at least a #12, but also because I don’t want to screw over a protected seed. That really wouldn’t be protecting them, would it?
I don’t think the committee will like East Tennessee State or Northern Iowa as much as I do either, but they do have some nice quad 1 wins, and I am personally more impressed with teams from outside the power conferences who get quad 1 wins despite having limited opportunities than I am with teams who play half their schedule against Top 50 NET teams, and lose the vast majority of them, but pick up a couple. To me that’s more reflective of having more chances than it is of them being better. I mean…a baseball player who goes 4-for-19 isn’t necessary better than someone else who goes 3-for-9, so the fact that other teams who I’ve either left out or have seeded below them have more wins is not necessarily because they’re better.
STAFF COMMENTS
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I think Duke is a good team. A very good team. But they do not deserve a #1 seed, and in fact are not the best, and arguably not even the second best, team in their conference. If you are going to drop San Diego State to the 2 line (which I would not), Florida State simply is a better team with a better profile. Duke has two losses to teams that will not make the field and David is putting them on the #1 line based on a pair of games played before December 6 (wins over Kansas and Michigan State). I think it is a bad pick and fully think he should be blasted as an idiot all over Twitter for choosing the Blue Devils.
– Maryland should be a protected seed. Despite what David thinks, this team is now 5-4 away from home, including a win at Indiana and a neutral court win over Marquette. Their four losses are all against very good teams. The Terps are way under-seeded on the 5 line and could probably be two lines higher.
– I have no idea what Saint Mary’s is doing on the 8 line. The Gaels beat BYU at home, Wisconsin on a neutral court and Arizona State on the road. While that is solid, it is also barely enough to make up for losses to Pacific, Winthrop and Santa Clara. I would have the Gaels in the field, but barely above the First Four, if not headed to Dayton.
– Even worse, Syracuse is on the 9 line. The Orange were one of the hottest teams in the nation a week ago, and had, in my opinion, barely played their way into the field. They lost twice last week, and while the home loss to Duke is excusable, the loss at Clemson is not. This team is 13-9 with a 66 NET in a weak ACC. Syracuse is an NIT team right now. They do NOT belong in the field today.
– Va Tech vs Texas in Dayton must be a joke, because neither team is close in my opinion. Va Tech is falling apart faster than a LEGO set dropped from a 10th story window and Texas has beaten..well…nobody. Memphis, Arizona State, Georgetown, Purdue, Minnesota and Xavier are all better teams than either of these. I could make a strong case for any of those 6. I cannot make one for the Hokies, the Longhorns or (as set forth above) the Orange.
– All in all, I would like to say that David did a good job, but quite frankly, he didn’t. He is clearly in love with Duke in a manner that may not be healthy, didn’t bother looking at the profiles for teams like St Mary’s, Syracuse, Va Tech and Texas, and I would honestly recommend that no one in the world give any credit whatsoever to this pathetic excuse for a bracket. At least he didn’t put an ineligible team in….oh wait…never mind. *sighs*
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– We’re going to have this conversation ad nauseam about San Diego State – while they’re not going to have nearly the good wins that Duke has, they’re not going to have bad losses on their profile, either. As Chad noted, while Duke played with their food against SFA at home and Clemson on the road, the Aztecs didn’t mess around when road trips to teams like Utah State and New Mexico (comparable teams) came calling. In fact, thanks to a true road win at BYU and wins against Creighton and Iowa that are looking much better by the day, I’d even argue that San Diego State should be ranked ABOVE Gonzaga this week.
– While I applaud the Puppet for putting Creighton into the land of protected seeds, I would ask him why he’s only punishing Butler (who does have a starter injured at the moment) and not Villanova this week. I could defend the Puppet for choosing Penn State over Maryland for a protected seed if he simply looked at their head-to-head matchup, although a case could be made for the Terps to be a 4 (but not a 3, Chad).
– I do need an explanation on why Texas Tech should be a 7 this week, though. If the justification is that they have a neutral-court victory against Louisville, I suddenly need to ask why a team like Xavier is not in his field this week. The Musketeers finally got a much-needed signature win at Seton Hall (along with a win at TCU that is still Quad 1B) and has a rockier record thanks to a tougher schedule compared to the Red Raiders. (Note: I do think the Red Raiders should be in the field, but a 9 or 10 is where they belong right now.)
– When I built my own seed list yesterday, there was a huge dropoff (or so it seemed) from the first 36 teams down to the final 2 lines. I would argue that Virginia and Rutgers (even with only one victory away from home) are above that cut line. I knew that I spooked the Puppet by mentioning Syracuse and their road wins a couple of weeks ago, but I didn’t think I’d scare him straight to the point that he would have the Orange safely in the field. They would be my first team out of the field, and I would have Texas as my seventh team out (with Stanford, Arizona State, Memphis and NC State as my last four teams in).
– I do have to salute the Puppet for putting the Ocean State runner-up (Rhode Island) in the field this week. While their loss to Brown in the Ocean State championship does anchor down their resume, wins against Alabama and a sweep of VCU help to negate that and put them above the other Rams in the pecking order for a potential second bid out of the A-10. They could really use at least one win against Dayton for an even better signature win come March.
– I am cheering wholeheartedly for Merrimack to win the NEC regular season in their first season of Division 1 play, if only to hear ridiculous justifications from the NCAA and the NEC as to why they should not be allowed to potentially be able to participate in the NCAA Tournament. We have mentioned previously on our podcasts and Twitter that the College of Charleston actually participated in the 1994 NCAA Tournament while they were only in their third D1 season, but that was because of a loophole at the time that allowed them to transition quicker since they jumped up from NAIA up to NCAA D1. And also note that they were an at-large selection out of the TAAC (now A-Sun) that season; the autobid TAAC that year was Central Florida as a 16 seed.
