NEWS AND NOTES
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-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Northern Illinois and Kent State – CLICK HERE
-It was a rock fight, but NC State picked up a desperation win at Virginia, which helps out their resume. It was a desperation game for Virginia as well, and the loss, which is now their fourth in five games, is starting to drag down their resume.
-Some Under the Radar news from last night, and that’s a big win for Winthrop at Radford in the Big South. The two teams were tied for first place, and it’s a nice road win for Winthrop. It also plays a role in them getting home court advantage during the conference tournament.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-KANSAS STATE AT KANSAS (Big 12). K State is coming off a rather surprising win against West Virginia so they should have some momentum built up coming into this game, but they’ve struggled most of the season and appear to be way overmatched tonight. Kansas still looks like a team that can land on the #1 line.
-BUTLER AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Butler has had a great season, but they’ve now suffered two straight losses and have a really tough road assignment tonight against a Villanova team that’s ranked in the top ten and who is unbeaten at home. Both teams could end up as protected seeds, so this is an opportunity for both of them to get a quality win in a showcase game.
-GEORGIA AT KENTUCKY (SEC). This is the second meeting between the two. Kentucky won the first one and is the obvious favorites to win tonight. Kentucky is coming off a big road win at Arkansas and is still on a path to end up as a protected seed. Georgia is hovering around the bubble, so if they were to pull off a win tonight it would certainly improve their resume in a big way.
-MARYLAND AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Maryland, like all Big Ten teams, has struggled on the road. This is probably their most winnable remaining road game of the season so they need to take care of business tonight.
-ILLINOIS AT PURDUE (Big Ten). This is a game that both of these teams could really use. Illinois could definitely benefit from a road win, and Purdue, who’s been kind of schizophrenic this year, could benefit from the quality win at home as they try to establish themselves as being safely inside the bubble.
-WICHITA STATE AT SOUTH FLORIDA (American). Wichita State has lost two straight, but they’ve still got a good team and should be able to bounce back with a winnable road game tonight.
-FLORIDA AT LSU (SEC). I keep talking about how Florida has been falling short of expectations, but they have quietly won five of their last six, and if they win tonight then one has to think that they are back on track and on pace to land very safely inside the bubble. LSU is on a roll as well. They’ve won six of their last six.
-AKRON AT MIAMI OH (MAC). Akron may have a path to landing inside the bubble, but they pretty much need to win out in order to do it.
-TEXAS TECH AT TCU (Big 12). This is an important game because while Texas Tech has some quality stuff on their resume, the majority of it is still empty calories, and a road win against a decent TCU team could really help out with that. TCU has lost two straight, but they are still positioned to make the NCAA Tournament if they can finish strong.
-MIAMI FL AT DUKE (ACC). Duke is looking to bounce back from a somewhat surprising two straight losses. They are still looking like a solid protected seed, and could still even end up on the #1 line, but they have to hold serve in games like this. Miami FL looks like an NIT team. Of course if they win tonight, that changes, but that is a very tall order.
-NEBRASKA AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Wisky needs to hold serve against non-Tourney teams, and in the case of Nebraska, a non-NIT team.
-SAINT JOHN’S AT MARQUETTE (Big East). Saint John’s has some big wins this season, but they’ve struggled lately and this is a bit of a desperation game for them. Marquette has really been playing well and will look to continue to keep that going.
-VCU AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Right now we have VCU right around the bubble. They are almost out of strikes and basically need to dominate the rest of the their schedule in order to make the field.
-WYOMING AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West). Technically this is a conference game. Practically, the committee will give it about as much attention as a buy game. SDSU can’t lose this (or pretty much any other game) if they want to land on the #1 line.
Bracket Projection (Staff Bracket) – Monday, January 20th
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Hoops HD Staff Bracket – this is not the bracket like Jon Teitel does where he attempts to forecast the Selection Committee, but this is how he would personally select and seed the field at the checkpoint of games played through Sunday the 19th. Here is the field below:
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– This week, the first surprise comes not so much on the top line of the bracket, but on the second line of the bracket where Florida State now is #5 overall on the seed list and the top-ranked ACC team ahead of Duke. There is a slight recency bias on this pick, but one thing that hurts Duke this week is that they now have two losses against teams that are not guaranteed to make this field (meaning that if SFA were to lose in their conference tournament, they’d miss the NCAAs). Also keep in mind that a win at Louisville does help out FSU as well.
– Seton Hall is rapidly shooting up the seed list, and winning at Butler also helps to put them above the Bulldogs for the time being. Butler took a brief slide with this loss and the loss at DePaul.
– Louisville and Kentucky have played much better of late, and are winning big games both home and away as teams like Maryland, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State are stumbling as they are reverting to homecourt heroes (and even less where the free-falling Buckeyes are concerned).
– USC was getting a peek into the field during our first two episodes of the Bracket Rundown, but if I was going to be high on Stanford for their performance earlier this season, I owe the same courtesy to the Trojans (especially with a head-to-head win against Stanford along with wins against LSU and TCU away from home). They will have their biggest test of the year with the Oregon/Oregon State roadie awaiting this week.
– Two blowout losses on the road have turned Auburn into a profile eerily similar to that of Arkansas. I’m now wondering if both Chad and the Puppet will skewer me for having them ahead of the Hogs at this stage.
– I’m ready to put a team like Northern Iowa above the First Four based on their overall body of work compared to the bubble muck, but I’m not quite ready to do the same for Liberty. Their metrics are okay, but the words “intent to schedule” are going to haunt the Flames come March.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
– I normally say that in order to land on the #1 line that a team needs to beat a protected seed away from home, which is something that San Diego State has not done and will not do, but ‘normally’ saying that isn’t the same as ‘always’ saying that. I’ve not yet moved the Aztecs up to my #1 line, but they are getting close. And even though they haven’t beaten a protected seed away from home (or at all), they have won at BYU (which is currently their only home loss) and blew past a really good Creighton team on a neutral floor. So, a case can be made that they belong up there. Oh yeah, and they are undefeated, but a case can be made beyond just that.
-All and all, John did a pretty good job. I hate to say that, but he did. I totally disagree on Indiana. They do have a nice win against Florida State, and they do have a bloated record, but it came against a weak schedule and most of their wins are against teams with overall losing records, or they’re home wins against teams with losing road records. I think they belong in the field, but not quite on the #6 line.
-Auburn on the #8 line seems about right.
-Houston on the #6 seems a little high, but they did just pick up a big win. I now don’t feel so bad about having them in my 7-8 line range.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
– I think a strong case can be made the Louisville belongs even higher than the 4 line. The Cardinals picked up a absolutely HUGE road win this week and now have three Tier 1 road victories and no losses below Tier 1A (the top half of Tier 1).
– I also do not understand how Colorado is a 4 seed, even if they were the very last 4 seed. The Buffs best true road win is at Arizona State, who is not in the field. Their entire resume is propped up by a neutral court win over Dayton. Meanwhile, they have lost twice at home to teams that are one or below the bubble (UNI and Oregon State). I just don’t think that is a protected seed resume. Quite frankly, I would have them 3 or 4 seed lines lower than a 4 seed.
– Houston and Indiana are both overseeded, but David already addressed them. Memphis on the 6 line seems way too high to me as well. Wins over NC State, Tennessee and Cincinnati are the entirety of the Tigers Tier 1 AND Tier 2 resume. That’s not 6 seed caliber in my opinion.
– Oklahoma in the First Four on the 11 line is an under-seeding as well. The Sooners have been quietly putting together a solid resume. They have 5 wins away fro hoe against the top two tiers and only one loss outside of Tier 1A. I think that is at least 9 line good, if not better.
– I think Colgate is a couple lines better than a 15 seed. They won at Cincinnati and have avoided most of the bad losses. John’s 14 seed teams all have a lot more warts on their resumes than the Raiders do.
– All in all, I think John did a fairly good job. I almost completely agree with his choice of teams, though I think a case can be made that Georgetown belongs in above a Tennessee or NC State. It is a close call there, so I will let that issue slide for now. I do, however, completely agree with his 1 seed line.