NEWS AND NOTES
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Dartmouth and New Hampshire – CLICK HERE
-West Virginia led off a busy day of hoops yesterday with a signature come-from-behind win against Ohio State in Cleveland. The Mountaineers had 45 points off the bench – they were led by Miles McBride who had a game-high 21 points. While this was the weekend from hell for Buckeye fans, they still go into the heart of Big Ten play with a lot of momentum from the first two months of the season. West Virginia has rather assuredly shown that they are a top 25 caliber team and is on pace to land in the top half of the bracket come Selection Sunday if they keep playing and winning at the clip they have been.
-Kansas blew past what looked to be a pretty good Stanford team to pick up their first true road win against a div1 team. Their next game is against the previously mentioned West Virginia team that’s coming off that big win against Ohio State.
-Liberty suffered their first loss of the year as they fell rather decisively at LSU 74-57. This will very possibly be Liberty’s last loss of the year. No one remaining on their schedule is in the NET top 200 other than Jacksonville, who checks in at 191. This sets up an interesting situation. If they enter the ASun Tournament with a 30-1 record, but then do not win the conference tourney, then what does the committee do with them?? Yes, they’ll have 30+ wins, but it’s also possible that only 5 of them will be against top 200 teams.
-A game that we didn’t mention yesterday was Hartford @ Northwestern. Hartford ended up winning. As a UTR note, it was Hartford’s third straight win and they suddenly look like they may make some noise in the America East. As a Big Ten note, Northwestern is terrible!
-Arkansas picked up a VERY nice road win at Indiana yesterday in a game that seesawed back and forth. The Hoosiers went absolutely ice cold in the final few minutes of the game and Arkansas closed things out on a 19-3 run to pick up what is easily their best win of the year so far. Eric Musselman has done very well with this Arkansas team, and appears to have them playing at a top 40-ish level, if not better.
-Harvard picked up a nice win at California, which really isn’t surprising. After a slow start, the Crimson are now showing signs of life, and are a rather impressive 4-1 in true road games. Barring them running the table the rest of the way, it’s probably too late to think of them as an-at large team, but they should make quite a bit of noise in the Ivy League this year.
-Look out for Alabama! They got off to a slow start and everyone kind of ignored them, but they knocked off a pretty good Richmond team yesterday and are now 5-1 in their last six games. Their only loss in that stretch was by just two points on the road against a now nationally ranked Penn State team, so the Tide seem to have it going.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-XAVIER AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Both Xavier and Nova had won most of the games they were supposed to win, but I didn’t think either really looked like a top 25 caliber team in most of those games. Having said that, Nova definitely looked the part in their last game against Kansas. These are two of the flagship programs in the Big East, but Villanova has definitely had the upper hand in this series, they’re at home, and they’ve looked like the better team up until now. I keep thinking that sooner or later Xavier is going to have a breakout game and turn their season around. Today would be an excellent day for it.
-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT BUFFALO (Big Four). The Bonnies got off to a somewhat slow start, but they are now a very respectable 8-4 and can create a path for themselves to land inside the bubble if they can continue to improve and string together wins. That’s much easier said than done, though. Buffalo is in rebuilding mode, and while they’ve had their struggles, they’ve also looked really good at times. A win for either team would give them a big momentum boost as we head into conference play.
-YALE AT NORTH CAROLINA. The Tar Heels need to get their season turned back around. While they should beat Yale at home even with some of the setbacks they’ve had, this is a Yale team that’s been playing really well recently and should come in with a ton of confidence.
-KENT STATE AT MISSISSIPPI STATE. I keep waiting for Mississippi State to pull it together and start playing like a tournament caliber team. While they’ve had a decent season, that’s all they’ve had a decent season. Kent State comes in with just two losses and in need of a signature win, so Mississippi State better not overlook them. If anything Kent State has looked as good (and maybe better) than Mississippi State up to this point.
-LOUISIANA TECH AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA). LA Tech has a very narrow path toward landing inside the bubble, but they at least have a path. If they dominate CUSA, then they should be in the conversation at the end of the season.
-SETON HALL AT DEPAUL (Big East). DePaul has been one of the surprise teams of the season, and can keep that going if they can win their conference opener against a Seton Hall team that has had their struggles and dealt with injuries, but is still a good team. I know this sounds crazy to say, but DePaul looks like they’re good enough to finish in the top half of the Big East standings, and if they do, they’ll be dancing!
-TULANE AT MEMPHIS (American). Tulane is having a better year than expected and Ron Hunter should do great things there. But, they’re a LOOONG ways away from being the kind of team that can be expected to knock off Memphis on the road. Memphis has a pretty solid profile already and should be able to hold serve in their conference opener.
-GEORGE MASON AT TCU. George Mason has just one loss, and is definitely a team worth keeping an eye on. Having said that, they lost the only road game they’ve played so far and haven’t exactly played a tough schedule. If they are capable of being a tournament caliber team, then this is the kind of game they should be able to win.
-HARVARD AT SAN FRANCISCO. San Francisco has played a weak schedule, but they’re still in position to land inside the bubble if they can hold serve in games like this, do well in conference play, and slay the big beast that is Gonzaga at some point. Harvard has been somewhat disappointing this year, but they are starting to wake up. A win today would be a huge statement.
BUY GAMES
-Canisius @ Pittsburgh
-Jackson State @ Baylor
-Stetson @ South Carolina
-North Florida @ Dayton
-Caldwell (nondiv1) @ Rutgers
-Austin Peay @ Georgia
-UTRGV @ Oklahoma
-High Point @ Texas
Bracket Projection (Staff Bracket) – Monday, December 30th
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Hoops HD weekly staff bracket projection. This is merely a checkpoint of games played through Sunday the 29th; this is not, I repeat not, a projection of what he expects the field to look like come March. The bracket is posted below:
First Four Out: Indiana, Arizona, Rutgers, Xavier
Other Teams Considered: Arizona State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, VCU, Ole Miss, Illinois, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, LSU, NC State, UNC-Greensboro
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
-The volatility in college hoops continues yet again. Gonzaga is now about as firmly entrenched into the overall #1 slot as you can get for a little while, so naturally we saw #2 ranked Ohio State lose to West Virginia. (This was the first loss by a team ranked #2 at the time, strangely enough.) Duke and Kansas have worked their way back into #1 seeds and Baylor has the edge for the last #1 thanks to wins like Butler, Arizona and Villanova on a neutral court.
-Auburn and San Diego State are the last two unbeaten teams in the country, and unlike teams like Liberty and Duquesne, they do have some wins of note (home and away) to warrant protected seeds at this time.
-Arizona suddenly finds itself below the cut line for the time being; while they had a great November and won the Wooden Legacy, their schedule got tougher in December and suddenly they don’t have quality wins to offset their losses. Gonzaga and Baylor are forgivable; St. John’s – not so much.
-Naturally, Arizona’s loss is the Johnnies’ gain. St. John’s started slowly (not without any shock) with losses against Arizona State and Vermont, but now have wins against West Virginia and the aforementioned Wildcats on a neutral floor. Now the Johnnies have to go through the 18-game gauntlet that is conference play in the Big East.
-Northern Iowa is my only UTR team slotted above the First Four and will be that way at least for the foreseeable future. Outside of the Panthers, only teams like Yale, UNC-Greensboro and Furman have a potential pathway there in my view at the moment. Liberty, not so much after their loss at LSU.
-A bracketologist’s worst nightmare is beginning to unfold with BYU entrenched in the First Four at the moment. A potential Purdue-Villanova rematch from last year wouldn’t normally be slotted in the first round, but I don’t suspect the real committee would avoid this in the event of the BYU headache. The Coogs are in this spot thanks to wins against Houston, Virginia Tech and Utah State, although losses at Utah and especially Boise State will sting.
-Apparently Stephen F Austin’s win at Duke is making less of an impression on Stalica than SFA’s losses to Alabama and Rutgers, both of which were on the road. This is a team that’s good enough to run the table in the Southland, and if they do that then I cannot imagine them not being safely inside the bubble.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Baylor as a #1 seed is interesting. They do have three wins against (currently) ranked teams, so I can’t say that it’s an outrageous pick, but one of those was against Arizona, who (probably correctly) isn’t even in Stalica’s field. I still think Duke is the better overall team, and has the better overall resume. They did, after all, beat Kansas away from home, who’s on Stalica’s #1 line.
-A #5 seed for Louisville does seem a little low. I don’t think it’s outrageously low. I just think it’s the normal parameters of low. The home win against Michigan was good, but Michigan is also a team without a true road win yet, so having that as your signature win just isn’t going to get you all that much higher than a #4 seed. In Stalica’s case, it didn’t even get them that high.
-We got back and forth on this, but I do think Dayton is a lot better than their resume. If you look at them on paper, a strong case can be made that they don’t even belong on the #6 line. I do think they are a top 15 team, and are good enough on the court to earn a protected seed, and if they blow through the Atlantic Ten, which I think they will, then the committee should put them up there. I understand Stalica’s reasoning. I just think he’s wrong. And when I think someone is wrong, IT MEANS THEY ARE WRONG!!
-I’m just not feeling Oklahoma State. Everyone else at Hoops HD seems to be high on them. I was at one time. I’m not anymore. In looking at their profile, they have a nice win at Houston, and….well….I mean….it was a nice win at Houston. Barely.
-With that being said, I do like this Houston team. I think their resume will continue to improve as the season plays out, and I think Stalica was right to include them.