NEWS AND NOTES
-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Drake and Bradley – CLICK HERE
-It seems as though every time we want to like South Carolina, even just a little bit, they emphatically give us a reason not to. The Gamecocks lost at home to Stetson yesterday. In case you don’t follow our Under the Radar show, Stetson is not even expected to be one of the better teams in the Atlantic Sun. So…not a good loss for Angry Frank and Co.
-Yale hung tough against North Carolina, but couldn’t quite get over the top as the Tarheels picked up a win in a game that kind of had a sense of urgency to it. North Carolina has struggled this season, but this would have REALLY amplified things had they not held on to win this one.
-Seton Hall held on to beat DePaul in a thrilling game that seesawed back and forth. It was the Big East opener for both teams. It would have been a big win for DePaul, but I do think the Blue Demons are really good and can get the wins they need between now and the end to make the NCAA Tournament. It was, in turn, a very good win for Seton Hall, which isn’t oftentimes how you would describe a win a DePaul, but that is certainly the case this year.
-George Mason, who was 11-1 and a team that I thought was worth paying attention to…was not worth paying attention to last night. They were absolutely blown off the court by a TCU team that’s arguably decent (I guess), but nowhere close to being a top 25 caliber team.
-Harvard picked up an exciting overtime win at San Francisco. The Crimson probably won’t land inside the bubble unless they run the table, so they’ll still need the auto-bid to make the field, but they are finally looking like the team that we thought they’d be at the beginning of the year.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-GEORGIA TECH AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). Florida State once again looks to be a top 20 caliber team and shouldn’t have too much trouble holding serve at home in this one today.
-TEMPLE AT UCF (American). Both teams have good records, and Temple actually has a few decent wins, but both still have a ton of work to do if they want to end up inside the bubble on Selection Sunday. A win today in a game like this would be a nice start.
-NORTHERN IOWA AT ILLINOIS STATE (Missouri Valley). This is much easier said than done, but Northern Iowa clearly looks like the best team in the Missouri Valley, and is probably good enough to run the table. If they do, then they should be in the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t win the conference tournament.
-MIAMI FL AT CLEMSON (ACC). Miami has won their last four games, and knocked off Temple and Illinois in that stretch. They seem to be improving as the season goes along, and this is a winnable conference road game for them.
-GEORETOWN AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). It’s the conference opener for both teams. Georgetown keeps stringing together wins despite having lost several key players. Providence has been disappointing for most of the season, but did look really impressive in their last game against Texas, so they will at least have some momentum coming into this one.
-BOSTON COLLEGE AT DUKE (ACC). Duke is one of the best teams in the country. Boston College…well…isn’t.
-BUTLER AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Saint John’s has been one of the surprise teams out of the Big East this year, and they’re currently in a stretch where they’ve won seven in a row and knocked off Arizona and West Virginia in that stretch. Butler has been one of the surprise teams on a national scale, and is now ranked in the top ten with several big wins and just one 1pt loss on the season.
BUY GAMES
-Rider @ Wisconsin
-Florida A&M @ Iowa State
Bracket Projection (Staff Bracket) – Monday, December 30th
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Hoops HD weekly staff bracket projection. This is merely a checkpoint of games played through Sunday the 29th; this is not, I repeat not, a projection of what he expects the field to look like come March. The bracket is posted below:
First Four Out: Indiana, Arizona, Rutgers, Xavier
Other Teams Considered: Arizona State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, VCU, Ole Miss, Illinois, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, LSU, NC State, UNC-Greensboro
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
-The volatility in college hoops continues yet again. Gonzaga is now about as firmly entrenched into the overall #1 slot as you can get for a little while, so naturally we saw #2 ranked Ohio State lose to West Virginia. (This was the first loss by a team ranked #2 at the time, strangely enough.) Duke and Kansas have worked their way back into #1 seeds and Baylor has the edge for the last #1 thanks to wins like Butler, Arizona and Villanova on a neutral court.
-Auburn and San Diego State are the last two unbeaten teams in the country, and unlike teams like Liberty and Duquesne, they do have some wins of note (home and away) to warrant protected seeds at this time.
-Arizona suddenly finds itself below the cut line for the time being; while they had a great November and won the Wooden Legacy, their schedule got tougher in December and suddenly they don’t have quality wins to offset their losses. Gonzaga and Baylor are forgivable; St. John’s – not so much.
-Naturally, Arizona’s loss is the Johnnies’ gain. St. John’s started slowly (not without any shock) with losses against Arizona State and Vermont, but now have wins against West Virginia and the aforementioned Wildcats on a neutral floor. Now the Johnnies have to go through the 18-game gauntlet that is conference play in the Big East.
-Northern Iowa is my only UTR team slotted above the First Four and will be that way at least for the foreseeable future. Outside of the Panthers, only teams like Yale, UNC-Greensboro and Furman have a potential pathway there in my view at the moment. Liberty, not so much after their loss at LSU.
-A bracketologist’s worst nightmare is beginning to unfold with BYU entrenched in the First Four at the moment. A potential Purdue-Villanova rematch from last year wouldn’t normally be slotted in the first round, but I don’t suspect the real committee would avoid this in the event of the BYU headache. The Coogs are in this spot thanks to wins against Houston, Virginia Tech and Utah State, although losses at Utah and especially Boise State will sting.
-Apparently Stephen F Austin’s win at Duke is making less of an impression on Stalica than SFA’s losses to Alabama and Rutgers, both of which were on the road. This is a team that’s good enough to run the table in the Southland, and if they do that then I cannot imagine them not being safely inside the bubble.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Baylor as a #1 seed is interesting. They do have three wins against (currently) ranked teams, so I can’t say that it’s an outrageous pick, but one of those was against Arizona, who (probably correctly) isn’t even in Stalica’s field. I still think Duke is the better overall team, and has the better overall resume. They did, after all, beat Kansas away from home, who’s on Stalica’s #1 line.
-A #5 seed for Louisville does seem a little low. I don’t think it’s outrageously low. I just think it’s the normal parameters of low. The home win against Michigan was good, but Michigan is also a team without a true road win yet, so having that as your signature win just isn’t going to get you all that much higher than a #4 seed. In Stalica’s case, it didn’t even get them that high.
-We got back and forth on this, but I do think Dayton is a lot better than their resume. If you look at them on paper, a strong case can be made that they don’t even belong on the #6 line. I do think they are a top 15 team, and are good enough on the court to earn a protected seed, and if they blow through the Atlantic Ten, which I think they will, then the committee should put them up there. I understand Stalica’s reasoning. I just think he’s wrong. And when I think someone is wrong, IT MEANS THEY ARE WRONG!!
-I’m just not feeling Oklahoma State. Everyone else at Hoops HD seems to be high on them. I was at one time. I’m not anymore. In looking at their profile, they have a nice win at Houston, and….well….I mean….it was a nice win at Houston. Barely.
-With that being said, I do like this Houston team. I think their resume will continue to improve as the season plays out, and I think Stalica was right to include them.