Just so everyone knows what they are looking at, this is my own personal bracket based on what has happened so far. In other words, it’s what I THINK should look like if today were Selection Sunday and not what I think the Selection Committee will do in March.
Below are some comments from myself, as well as some comments from others on the staff. If anyone else from Hoops HD disagrees with what I have done, then THEY ARE WRONG!!
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Virginia Tech, Arkansas, George Mason, SMU, East Tennessee State, Furman, LSU, BYU, Creighton, NC State, Saint Louis, New Mexico, Saint John’s, Duquesne, Mississippi State, UConn, Tulane, Delaware, Sacramento State
-I will start with the obvious. Louisville on the #2 line. This isn’t quite the same as the Merit Brackets that I do in November, but at the end of the day I’m still a pretty heavy merit guy. The four teams on the #1 line have all done something that Louisville hasn’t, and that’s beat a ranked team away from home. I’m not saying Louisville cannot or will not do it, but at this point in time they haven’t played a game like that yet, and I can’t justify automatically assuming that they are better than all of the teams that have.
-To a large degree, it feels like splitting hairs when comparing team resumes just 8-10 games into the season, but what I value this most is quality wins away from home. Virtually all of the protected seeds have done that. While Louisville doesn’t have a road win against a team that is likely to win in the top half of the bracket, they did blow past Miami FL and Western Kentucky, which counts for something.
-I have Tennessee seeded way higher than where they will probably be ranked in the human polls. They have one loss to Florida State, and it was only by 3pts. They have wins against VCU and Washington away from home. That’s pretty good! I don’t know if they’ll end up on one of the top two lines, but they’ve certainly proven that they are good enough to lift some heavy weight, and to hold serve against non-tournament caliber teams.
-I’ve got SFA on the #8 line despite a rather less than stellar showing at Alabama earlier this week. That is not a good look on the profile, but all things considered it isn’t a backbreaking loss either. At least it doesn’t appear to be at this point in time. The win at Duke is worth A LOT of merit, and if SFA runs the table (or only drops one) the rest of the way, which they are good enough to do, then I can see them belonging in this area.
-North Carolina may be slipping, but they’re only slipping by top ten standards. Losses at Virginia and at home to Ohio State are hardly backbreaking.
-I still like this Dayton team. I know on their resume it amounts to some decent wins against NIT-ish teams away from home, but they’ve absolutely blown those teams out, and they dominated a pretty good Saint Mary’s team on a neutral court yesterday.
COMMENTS FROM STAFF
FROM JOHN:
-David is correct in that he points out that all of his #1 seed teams have won games away from home – i.e. Ohio State (at UNC), Duke (v. Kansas, at Michigan State, at Va Tech), Kansas with the Maui Championship and Gonzaga with their win at Washington. However, I would give Michigan a little more slack for losing at Louisville as opposed to Gonzaga, who lost a neutral-court game against, wait for it, Michigan.
-If we go strictly by teams that they have beaten, I would not have the Flyers this high. That said, Pomeroy and other metrics do like the fact that Dayton is beating teams like Georgia, Virginia Tech and Saint Mary’s rather convincingly, all away from home. Historically, it is tough for teams in a conference (especially like the A-10) to run the table during the year – they’ll have to do so (or come real close) if they’re going to remain a 3 the rest of the way.
-While I do think the Noles can wind up as a protected seed, 2 is just too high at the moment. Winning at Florida is nice, and winning the Emerald Coast Classic is also a plus. By the same token, if I go by the Puppet’s merit rankings, they should be penalized for losing at Pitt – a team that’s not even under his consideration.
-Georgetown is another fascinating story. They have two home losses against Penn State and UNC-Greensboro along with a neutral-court loss against Duke, yet they have a neutral court victory against Texas and road wins at Oklahoma State and SMU. Could we finally have the bizarro home-court hero? In contrast, I want to see something of substance from a team like Indiana that doesn’t involve just winning at home. What’s also important for the Hoyas is that their road wins at OSU/SMU were without Akinjo and LeBlanc and is reflective of what their roster will be like the rest of the season.
