Bracket Projection – Staff Bracket (John Stalica)

With Feast Week now in the books along with a month’s worth of games, it is time for our colleague John Stalica to come up with a weekly bracket. Like the Puppet before him, this is not a guess as to how the committee will ultimately act, but rather current merit. And without further ado:

There are a number of teams that helped themselves in the exempt tournaments, and then there’s Michigan. There were a lot of question marks for the Wolverines coming into this season, but they beat Iowa State, North Carolina AND Gonzaga down in Atlantis (and also had a nice home win against Creighton prior to this). Michigan went from unranked to #4 in the polls as a result, but I’d argue no one else has done more.

Louisville is the current #1 team in the polls, although I think their paper is just a bit behind Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland. It was a close call between Maryland and Louisville, but I give the slightest of edges to the Terps for now.

Ohio State may be rated a little low, but they’ve played nothing but home games through November. Their first true road game comes at North Carolina this week, and then they get a pesky Penn State team at home for their conference opener. Playtime is over for the Buckeyes.

COMMENTS FROM DAVID.  It’s back!!  It’s December, which means we all take turns posting our own brackets each week based on what we THINK the field SHOULD look like.  We’re not trying to actually guess the Committee.  Jon Teitel does that, and he’s way better at it than any of us, so we just post what we think it should be.

And of course, some of what Stalica thinks is wrong!

-He’s got Kansas on his #2 line.  He’s got Dayton, who’s only loss was in overtime to Kansas and who beat two pretty decent teams down in Maui prior to playing Kansas, on his #8 line.  I don’t see how anyone who watched Dayton and Kansas play all three games down in Maui could think that six lines separate the two.

-I do agree that Louisville shouldn’t be on the #1 line.  At least not yet.  I’m not entirely sure I’d even have them on the #2 line.  At least not yet.  Their best win is on the road at Miami FL, who probably isn’t even an NIT team at the moment.  If they get out there and beat Michigan and Kentucky and win some games of that caliber, then yeah, they’ll belong on the top two lines.  But as of now they haven’t done any real heavy lifting yet, and even had to sweat out a home game against Akron last week.

-I strongly applaud the inclusion of DePaul on the #6 line.  If anything a strong case could be made that they belong even higher than that.

-Michigan as the overall #1 also makes sense.  Not only have they done more than anyone else, I don’t think anyone else has really come close.  Two double digit wins against top ten teams on a neutral floor.  There are teams who make runs to the Final Four and don’t manage two wins that are as good as that.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: Monday, December 2nd (and other News, Notes, and Games)

Canisius (4-2, 4-2 D1) vs. Hofstra (5-3, 4-3 D1) – approx. 2:00 PM (CUSA.tv)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes place in Florida Atlantic’s arena as part of the Boca Raton Beach Classic (Naismith Bracket). Canisius started off the season slow with losses at Brown and Albany, but have since rebounded with 4 straight wins that include a win over St. Bonaventure in the Big 4 Classic. They also beat Mercer 76-66 to advance to today’s championship game. Malik Johnson leads Canisius with 14.8 points a game and 5.8 rebounds a game.

Hofstra has been all over the place to start the season – they lost at home to San Jose State to open their season, but they have gone 3-1 on a road trip that started with an 88-78 win at UCLA. They beat Holy Cross 91-69 to advance to today’s championship game of the Naismith Bracket. Eli Pemberton leads the Pride with 17.0 points a game and 5.5 rebounds a game.

 

OTHER NEWS, NOTES, AND GAMES

-After a solid week and a half of constant action and surprises, yesterday was rather quiet and chalky.  Arizona beat Wake Forest without too much trouble (although Wake did look good in spurts), Maryland beat Marquette to win the Orlando Invitational without any much trouble (Marquette did not look good at all), Villanova beat La Salle at home, West Virginia had to sweat against a good Rhode Island team but came up with the win, and Vermont again tripped over their own feet and lost rather decisively at Yale.

-Temple is better than we thought, and Davidson is worse.  Temple blew them off the floor yesterday to improve to 6-1 on the season with their only loss being a close one to Maryland.  Davidson is just 3-5, and hasn’t looked good in any of those eight games.

-Providence was able to avoid yet another damaging loss when they held on to beat Pepperdine in the Wooden Legacy.  Pepperdine gave a fantastic effort all throughout this event in nearly beating Arizona in their first game and taking Providence to the wall yesterday.  You kind of hate that they have nothing on their resume to reflect that, and furthermore are short handed due to injuries.

-FURMAN AT SOUTH FLORIDA.  Furman can get to 8-1 on the year and pick up their 4th true road win of the season.

-CLEMSON AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten/ACC Challenge).  Clemson has played decently well this season, but they still have some work to do.  This is their first true road game of the season, and it’s winnable, but Minney is also probably better than their 3-4 record indicates.

-SOUTH DAKOTA AT WASHINGTON.  This is a buy game, but it’s one of the better teams in the Summit League, so we will go ahead and highlight it

-Arlington Baptist (nondiv1) @ SFA – buy game
-Florida A&M @ Kansas State – buy game

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Dec 1st

For today’s UTR Game of the Day between North Dakota and Campbell – CLICK HERE

NEWS AND NOTES

-There was only one exempt tournament going on yesterday down in the Emerald Coast Classic, but both games were well worth the price of admission. First, Tennessee defeated VCU on a last-second shot to claim third place in the event. That was followed up by a championship game that went overtime before Florida State outlasted Purdue. It’s looking more and more like the Noles’ season opening loss at Pitt may just have been an aberration.

-Georgetown just cannot have nice things, it seems. They’ve struggled at home against Penn State and even some of their buy-game level opponents. While they looked better in New York with a win against Texas and a close loss against Duke, they were beaten at home against UNC-Greensboro in a game that may not even be an upset. The Spartans cashed in on a major opportunity and once again appear poised to be a potential NCAA noisemaker this season.

-Richmond continues to look like a pleasant surprise out of the A-10; they smashed Boston College at home yesterday. Not a bad way to rebound after getting drubbed by Auburn up at the Barclays Center.

-Cincy also looked a bit schizo against UNLV – the Bearcats trailed by 11 points early in the second half before coming back to take what appeared to be an insurmountable 10-point lead with a minute remaining in regulation. UC had a couple of bad breaks with replay (most egregious was a sequence in which a UNLV shooter was fouled in the act of shooting while his foot was on the three-point line, but UC opted not to ask for a review), but they were also able to overcome the Runnin’ Rebels in overtime. No rest for the weary Bearcats this week – they have a home game against Vermont followed by the Crosstown Shootout against Xavier.

-Texas seems to fall victim to at least one upset special at home during the Shaka Smart era, but a potential upset loss to McNeese was averted with a pair of free throws from Courtney Ramey in the final ten seconds of regulation to give the Horns a 2-point win.

-Saint Joe’s is looking more and more like they just had one good day up at UConn. Last night, they lost by double digits to the Red Flash of Saint Francis University (or STFU as one of our writers likes to call them).

-The SWAC had a rare 3-0 day yesterday against D-1 competition. Alabama State beat Chicago State in the Emerald Coast Classic, Texas Southern beat Lamar at home and Prairie View went on the road and beat UT-San Antonio.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-FAIRFIELD VS TEXAS A&M (Orlando Invitational, 7th Place). To say that Texas A&M is going through growing pains while trying to rebuild their program would be an understatement. At least we get Uncle Buzz for Sunday morning hoops!

-MARYLAND VS MARQUETTE (Orlando Invitational, Championship).  Marquette is a team that we had a lot of questions about.  Well, they’re 5-1 and if they can win this one against Maryland then I think it’s safe to say that a lot of our questions will have been answered.  Maryland hasn’t always looked like a top 5 team, but they’ve won all their games and can build on their resume if they can win this event.

-LONG BEACH STATE VS PENNSYLVANIA (Wooden Legacy, 3rd Place). This could potentially be a red-letter day for the Ivy League with both Penn and Harvard playing for third place in multi-team exempt tournaments.

-RHODE ISLAND AT WEST VIRGINIA.  West Virginia just picked up a couple of really good wins in the Cancun Challenge and have a winnable home game today against a decent Rhody team.

-VERMONT AT YALE.  Vermont may be good enough to land inside the bubble, but they are running out of strikes.  They basically need to avoid loss to all non-tournament caliber teams the rest of the way, which means they have to basically win out.  They’re good enough to do that, but it’s much easier said than done.

-TEMPLE VS DAVIDSON (Orlando Invitational, 5th Place).  Temple followed up their close loss against Maryland with a blowout win against Texas A&M and have looked really strong this season.  Davidson hasn’t really looked anywhere close to as good as we thought they’d be this season and needs a win in a game like this to help get things turned around.

-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT SAINT LOUIS.  SLU can improve to 7-1 on the year with a win.

-CHARLESTON VS UCF (Wooden Legacy, 5th Place). Charleston gets one more opportunity for a win against a power conference team this weekend, but they look more like a team just trying to get for conference play in the Colonial.

-PROVIDENCE VS PEPPERDINE (Wooden Legacy, 7th Place).  Providence has got to string together some wins to get their season turned around.  To say it’s off to a rough start would be an understatement.

-HARVARD VS USC (Orlando Invitational, 3rd Place).  Harvard has been somewhat disappointing this year up to this point, but they did put up a good fight against Maryland and may be starting to turn things around.  A win against USC today would be big for their resume as well as their mental health.

-LA SALLE AT VILLANOVA (Big Five).  Nova hasn’t done anything all that impressive yet, but they should be able to hold serve against a La Salle team that’s off to a decent start, but at the same time hasn’t done anything all that impressive either.

-WAKE FOREST AT ARIZONA (Wooden Legacy, Championship).  I wasn’t big on Wake this year at all, but they have won two games in the Wooden Legacy to get to the finals, and if they can some how knock off an Arizona team that’s been winning, but that’s also had to sweat out a lot of their wins, it will catapult them into national relevance.

 

BUY GAMES

-Maine @ UConn
-Southern @ Tulane
-UNC-Wilmington @ Stanford
-Portland State @ Oregon State
-Omaha @ Saint Mary’s

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: Sunday, December 1st

North Dakota (4-4, 2-4 D1) vs. Campbell (5-2, 4-2 D1) – 12:00 PM EST

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to Alico Arena in Fort Myers – this game is part of the round-robin FGCU Classic sponsored by Hilton Garden Inn. While Campbell has moved on from last year’s record-setting season led by Chris Clemons, the Camels have managed to get out to a 4-2 start against D1 competition. This weekend, they’ve gone 1-1 with a win against the hometown Florida Gulf Coast Eagles along with a loss to Georgia Southern. Cory Gensler is averaging 10 points a game, 5.4 rebounds a game and 3 assists a game for the Camels.

North Dakota started off the season with four straight losses on the road against D1 competition, but they have managed to beat Florida Gulf Coast and Georgia Southern this weekend. This also means that they could win the FGCU Classic with a win against Campbell today. Filip Rebraca averages 15.5 points a game and 9.6 rebounds a game for the Fighting Hawks.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Nov 30th

NEWS AND NOTES

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day, which is a really good one between SFA and Arkansas State – CLICK HERE

-North Carolina held on to beat Oregon in the third place game of the Battle 4 Atlantis.  The fact that it was a third place game doesn’t mean anything.  All the committee cares about was that it was a win over a highly ranked Oregon team (if they maintain that ranking until March) on a neutral floor.

-Michigan won the Battle 4 Atlantis by manhandling Gonzaga, and winning their second game against a top ten team by double digits in two days.  Michigan is unranked, but that is certainly about to change.  I don’t think the Wolverines will jump all the way up to #1 because that’s just not how voters do things, but speaking in terms of merit they’ve probably got the best tournament resume in the country right now.

-Texas Tech looked sluggish.  Again.  They fell to a Creighton team 83-76 in the consolation game of the Las Vegas Invitational, and are still looking for their first non-buy game win.

-Saint Mary’s held on to knock off 15th ranked Utah State at home, which puts SMC in pretty good shape.  It was a home win, but they’ll still get some credit for it since Utah State will likely win a lot of road games this year.  Having said that, they haven’t won any yet.

-Down in the Emerald Coast Classic, Purdue knocked off VCU and Florida State knocked off Tennessee.  We kept saying that we thought Purdue and Tennessee were two good teams that hadn’t quite hit their stride yet.  Well, beating a ranked team on a neutral court generally constitutes hitting your stride.  The two will face each other later today, and VCU and Tennessee will face each other in what is suddenly a very opportunistic 3rd place game since both are ranked, which means both get the chance to pick up a high quality neutral floor win.

-DePaul won at Minnesota.  DePaul is now 8-0 on the season with three true road wins.  No one else in the Big East has a resume like that yet.

-Utah held on to beat UC Davis.  At home.  By 4.  I’m starting to think this Utah team really isn’t any good.

-San Diego State came from behind and dominated the second half to beat Iowa, win the Las Vegas Invitational, and remain unbeaten on the season.  This is looking like a solid NCAA Tournament team that probably also belongs in the rankings.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-SOUTH DAKOTA AT NORTHERN ARIZONA.  A decent UTR game as South Dakota has the chance to improve to 7-1 and pick up their third true road win of the season.

-UNC GREENSBORO AT GEORGETOWN.  It’s a buy game, but we are really big on this UNCG team and think they can land inside the bubble if they’re able to knock off some tournament caliber teams prior to conference play.  This is one of those opportunities for them, but it won’t come easy.  Georgetown is 4-2, but has shown a ton of improvement as the season has gone along and probably won’t overlook UNCG.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT RICHMOND.  The Spiders are off to an impressive 5-1 start and should remain on a pace to make the NCAA Tournament if they can hold serve at home in games like this.

-EAST TENNESSEE STATE AT LITTLE ROCK.  ETSU is looking to improve to 7-1 on the season and pick up their second true road win.  Their only loss so far has come at Kansas.

-TENNESSEE VS VCU (Emerald Coast Classic).  This is a third place game, but it’s a really good match-up between two ranked teams and will be considered a high caliber neutral floor win for whichever team is able to pull it off.

-SFA AT ARKANSAS STATE.  This is a really interesting UTR game.  SFA is coming off their huge win at Duke, and they’ve got another tough test today against an Arkansas State team that has just one loss and has been one of the more impressive teams out of the Sun Belt so far.

-UNLV AT CINCINNATI.  Cincinnati hasn’t really gelled yet, and while they’ve been winning games, they’ve been unimpressive showings against unimpressive teams.  I do think they’ll snap out of it sooner or later.  I just don’t know if it will be sooner or later.  They face a UNLV team at home that has struggled all year, so this is another winnable game for them.

-FLORIDA STATE VS PURDUE (Emerald Coast Classic).  Both teams have gotten off to slowish starts this season, but both picked up huge wins against ranked teams yesterday and appear to be hitting their stride.  This is yet another chance for both of them to pick up a resume building win away from home.

-TULSA AT VANDERBILT.  I don’t expect either team to be anywhere near the bubble come March, but as of now both teams are 5-1 so this game is worth keeping an eye on.  We will continue to highlight them until they give us a reason not to.

-SACRAMENTO STATE AT COLORADO.  This is a buy game, and the end result may look very unexciting, but both teams are unbeaten.  Sacramento State is out to a somewhat surprising 4-0 start.  If they can some how win today, then it would be a VERRY surprising start.

 

BUY GAMES (and equivalent games)

-Lipscomb @ Xavier
-Wagner @ Saint John’s
-McNeese @ Texas
-Montana Tech (nondiv1) @ BYU
-South Dakota State @ Indiana
-Stetson @ Kent State
-Northern Kentucky @ Arkansas – This one could be interesting since Arkansas is unbeaten and NKU is expected to be a Horizon League frontrunner
-Cal State Fullerton @ Santa Clara (Cable Car Classic)

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: Saturday, November 30th

Stephen F. Austin (5-1, 4-1 D1) at Arkansas State (5-1,4-1 D1) – 5:00 PM EST

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to Jonesboro, Arkansas – home of the Arkansas State Red Wolves. They will be hosting the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks in a battle of teams that weren’t expected to be among this season’s top UTR teams at the beginning of the year. SFA does have recent history, but after slipping back a bit in recent years, they scored their biggest win in program history with an 85-83 overtime victory at Duke. Nathan Bain hit a breakaway layup as time expired; Kevon Harris also led the Jacks with 26 points.

Arkansas State started off the year with a blowout loss at Ole Miss, but they have since rebounded with 3 wins in the round-robin Red Wolves Classic (against VMI, UC-Davis and Idaho) and won at Colorado State 80-78 earlier this week. They trailed the Rams by as many as 17 points in the second half and had three players foul out, but still managed to win thanks to 22 points from freshman Caleb Fields. Canberk Kus also leads Arkansas State with 13.5 points a game and 6.5 rebounds a game.

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