News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Nov 26th

CLICK HERE for the latest Hoops HD Report where we discuss all the action in the exempt tournaments, and more!

NEWS AND NOTES

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Miami OH and South Alabama – CLICK HERE

-Let’s begin out in Maui, where Virginia Tech pulled off a stunning upset against #3 Michigan State.  I don’t think there has ever been a single game that shifted my opinion about a team more than that one did.  VA Tech lost all five of their starters from a season ago, along with their head coach.  All the buckets appeared to be empty and they looked like one of the bottom two teams in the ACC.  Now all of a sudden they are undefeated with a road win at Clemson (which is Clemson’s only loss) and a neutral floor win against Michigan State.  This is a solid top 25 caliber team.  24 hours ago I would have told you they were not even a top 100 team.

Also impressive out in Maui was Dayton, who will face Virginia Tech tonight.  They blew past a talented (but young) Georgia team in their game yesterday, and it will be interesting to see if they can keep that momentum going tonight.

-Cincinnati needed overtime to get past Valparaiso.  The good news for Cincinnati is that they’ve been winning their games.  The bad news is that they haven’t looked impressive at all in doing so.  The coaching change is probably effecting them since the style he wants to play is something they’re not used to, but to barely beat Illinois State, then lose to Bowling Green, and then barely beat Valpo….it wasn’t exactly a strong showing for them down at the Paradise Jam.

-Pittsburgh picked up a nice win against a pretty good Kansas State team, which was kind of a surprise.  Pitt now has wins against Florida State and K State, and a loss to Nicholls.  #SchizophrenicPitt

-Butler pretty much rolled past Missouri.  Butler looked to be shorthanded coming into the year, and then they lost a few more players to injury within the first couple of games, so I wasn’t expecting much from them at all.  But, they’re unbeaten and have some pretty good wins.  And on top of that, they’re starting to get healthy again.

-Stanford was another team that I wasn’t expecting much out of, but they are undefeated and looked pretty good yesterday as they absolutely rolled over Oklahoma.   Their game against Butler tonight should be a good one.

-Richmond picked up a huge win over Wisconsin.  Suddenly you have to sit up and take notice of the Spiders who are undefeated and now have a couple of notable wins on their resume.  If they can somehow knock off Auburn tonight then we may be talking Top 25 for the Spiders.

-Arkansas remained unbeaten with a bank-shot game winning three pointer at the end of overtime to knock off Georgia Tech on the road.  That’s a pretty good start for the Razorbacks.

-Nevada picked up their third straight win to win the Paradise Jam, which gets them to 5-3 on the year after a somewhat sluggish start.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-NEW MEXICO STATE VS SOUTH FLORIDA (Cayman Islands Classic).  Both of these team were set up to have big years, and I suppose that they still can, but as for now they are both dealing with big time injuries that are impacting their teams.  Still, the winner will move on to the finals of this event tomorrow.

-GEORGIA VS MICHIGAN STATE (Maui Invitational).  Georgia lost big to Dayton yesterday, which may have been a bit of a wake up call for this young roster, but they’ve got another huge test today against a Michigan State team that fell to Virginia Tech in a really big upset.  Both teams are looking to bounce back and get notable neutral floor win on their resume.

-UCLA VS CHAMINADE (nondiv1) (Maui Invitational).  If UCLA loses this one then they are really in trouble.

-WISCONSIN VS NEW MEXICO (Legends Classic).  It’s the third place game, but that means absolutely nothing.  It counts the same as it would if this were just a regular season one-off on a neutral floor.  Wisconsin suffered a somewhat surprising loss to Richmond yesterday and is looking to bounce back against a decent New Mexico team that’s still looking for its first really big win.

-WICHITA STATE VS SOUTH CAROLINA (Cancun Challenge).  Wichita State is unbeaten and has looked pretty good, but they haven’t been challenged the way that they likely will be in this event.  South Carolina has just one loss and this is a chance for them to pick up some notable wins as well.

-APPALACHIAN STATE AT EAST TENNESSEE STATE.  ETSU is good enough to land inside the bubble this March, but they have to keep winning and avoid losses in games like this.

-ARIZONA STATE AT PRINCETON.  Kind of an odd road game for the Sun Devils, but it’s a winnable road game which will help out their resume more than just a regular home buy game would.

-FURMAN AT ELON.  A win for Furman gets them to 6-1 on the year, as well as their third road win of the season

-OKLAHOMA VS MISSOURI (Hall of Fame Classic).  Both teams have looked good at times, but both could also use a notable win on their resume, so this game does have a bit of a sense of urgency to it.  That being said, both will have many opportunities between now and the end of the year to prove themselves to the selection committee.

-AUBURN VS RICHMOND (Legends Classic). Richmond has been fun to watch this season, and they picked up a huge win against Wisconsin yesterday to get to the championship game tonight against an unbeaten Auburn team that absolutely steamrolled New Mexico.  It’s a resume building opportunity for both teams.

-GEORGE MASON VS NEBRASKA (Cayman Islands Classic).  Nebraska has been awful this year and George Mason has been better than expected.  They can continue to add neutral floor wins to their resume if they can get past the Huskers.

-CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT DEPAUL.  This is a buy game, but since Central Michigan has just one loss and since DePaul is unbeaten I guess we will go ahead and highlight it.

-DAYTON VS VIRGINIA TECH (Maui Invitational).  Dayton just looked fantastic in their win against Georgia, and in one sense you wanted to see what they could do against a heavyweight like Michigan State, but in another sense you’re excited to see what they can do against a Virginia Tech team that appears to be a much bigger heavyweight than what anyone realized.  This one should be fun tonight, and like so many of these games it’s a resume building opportunity.

-NORTHERN IOWA VS WEST VIRGINIA (Cancun Challenge).  A really interesting game here between a Northern Iowa team that we think is one of the better UTR teams out there, and a West Virginia team that’s looking to have a bounce back season.  Both teams come into this one unbeaten.

-WYOMING VS TCU (MGM Resorts Main Event).  TCU is off to a fairly decent start, but needs to bounce back from their overtime loss to Clemson and take advantage of some winnable games away from home like this one.

-STANFORD VS BUTLER (Hall of Fame Classic).  I didn’t expect either of these teams to be good this year, especially Butler with all of the injuries they’ve dealt with, but both have looked fantastic and both have knocked off some solid opponents along the way.  This should be a fun one tonight.

-KANSAS VS BYU (Maui Invitational).  BYU has been up and down this season, whereas Kansas has pretty much been up ever since they lost their season opener to Duke in what was a very close game.  The winner moves on to the championship game tomorrow night.

-COLORADO VS CLEMSON (MGM Resorts Main Event).  Both teams are coming into this with quite a bit of momentum, and a win in this game would look good on an NCAA Tournament resume, so it should be a fun one.

 

BUY GAMES (and equivalencies)

-Hampton @ San Francisco
-Fairleigh Dickinson @ Notre Dame
-NJIT @ Rutgers
-Lindenwood (nondiv1) @ Illinois
-Houston Baptist @ Houston
-SFA @ Duke
-UC Davis @ California

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Under The Radar – Tuesday, November 26th

For yesterday’s Hoops HD Report podcast – CLICK HERE

For the latest Hoops HD bracket forecast featuring Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings – CLICK HERE

Miami University (4-1, 3-1 D1) vs. South Alabama (4-2, 2-2 D1) – 5:00 PM EST (FloHoops.com)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes place in Estero, Florida – home of the Gulf Coast Showcase. South Alabama earned their way into today’s semifinal round with a 74-62 victory against Northeastern in their tournament opener. Josh Ajayi had a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds; Chad Lott led the Jaguars with 19 points.

(Mother) Miami earned their way into today’s semifinal with a 67-59 victory against the Drake Bulldogs. Nike Sibande led the RedHawks with 16 points and 11 rebounds in yesterday’s victory. Since a season-opening loss at home to Wright State, Miami has won four straight games including yesterday’s win – their other notable result was an 84-80 victory at Purdue-Fort Wayne.

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The Hoops HD Report: November 25th

Chad, David, and John recap a very busy week in college basketball as the exempt tournaments have gotten into full swing.  We discuss Virginia Tech’s huge win over Michigan State, Florida winning the Charleston Classic and snapping out of their funk, Utah’s struggles in Myrtle Beach, Baylor’s big win over Villanova, and Cincinnati’s struggles down in the Paradise Jam.  We also discuss Richmond, Dayton, and Duquesne out of the Atlantic Ten and how they’re off to very good starts, and how strong the ACC continues to look.  All that, and more…

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Bracket Projections – JNG Style!!

CLICK HERE to view the JNG Rankings for all 353 teams, which are updated Daily

For today’s News, Notes, and Games – CLICK HERE

So if you regularly follow the JNG Rankings, you know this already, but Joby Fortson has managed to build what is hands down the most accurate quantitative ranking system when it comes to predicting the selection committee.  His JNG rankings more accurately predict the NCAA Tournament field and seedings than what many respected “Bracketologists” are able to do, and they have the luxury of doing it qualitatively.  It’s actually quite remarkable.  I’m not sure how he does it.  How can he come up with a mathematical formula that so accurately predicts a qualitative process??  I don’t know.  But, he’s done it!

Now, it’s important to realize that his rankings always reflect what things would look like if the season ended today.  It makes no predictions of what will happen down the road.  So when you’re at the point where we are now where teams have only played 5-7 games, you see some things that appear to be out of whack.  Every year, without fail, there are a bunch of nincompoops running around screaming about how crazy all the different metrics look in the month of November, be it the RPI, the JNG, the NET, or whatever.  This causes many who manage these types of rankings to either make adjustments so they won’t be overrun with nincompoops complaining about their rankings, or simply just not release it until it starts to “look right.”  So, if this doesn’t “look right” to you, DO NOT BE A NINCOMPOOP!!  Realize that it’s only based on what’s happened so far, and if a team that’s highly ranked in the AP and coaches poll has still done nothing other than win home buy games, that will be reflected in his rankings because if Selection Sunday comes and that’s all they’ve done, then they’ll be watching the Tournament on television.

Below the bracket are some of my thoughts, as well as some thoughts from the man himself.

Bracket and rankings reflect all games played through Sunday, November 24th

 

COMMENTS FROM JOBY

-The ACC is very high on the list holding the top 3 spots thanks to starting conference play week 1.  That allows for quality wins away from home in the case of Virginia and Louisville.  Then add to the fact Duke won on a neutral court against another team in the field and you have an ACC friendly bracket to start.

-Some conferences getting more teams than conventional widsom are the Pac-12 with 6 and A-10 with 3.  The WCC has two but besides Gonzaga, it is not St Mary’s but the Dons of San Francisco that make the field.

-Only 11 teams with a loss make the field at this stage and no team with 2, though Villanova and Florida come close.  You have to go with what has occurred and an undefeated team gets extra credit.  At this early stage, that goose egg in the loss column looks really good as it reflects a team that can still go 30-0 even if they likely will not.

-While losses hurt compared to undefeated teams, if you also get a road win against Seton Hall, you can rebound and get back to the protected seed level.  Sparty will likely continue to climb back to the #1 seed line over the rest of the season.

-A shout out to 3 teams in the JNG protected seed range that the national media has not singled out yet but probably should have.  DePaul has been on a tear since their CBI finals run and is an impressive 6-0 that includes wins over Power 5 teams Iowa and Boston College.  Oklahoma St has not had too tough a schedule but has taken care of business including a road win against Charleston, which is a likely Quadrant 2 win.  Temple is undefeated with a nice win over Southern California on the road.  The Trojans are among the last 4 out.

-Speaking of last 4 out.  Those teams along with Southern Cal are Illinois, Memphis and Dayton.  All 4 of those teams made several preseason projected brackets, and they are still in a position to take advantage of that status.

-Only two undefeated teams do not make the field.  The aforementioned Dayton (who truth be told has only played 3 games against a ho-hum schedule) and Indiana.  I think Indiana is trying to mimic NC State from last year.  All home buy games and their SOS is 349th!!  C’mon Hoosiers, there is no excuse for that.  Even Dayton played your instate compatriot Indiana St, which would be an improvement to the dreck that IU has played.

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-Two teams that seem to be ranked much higher than how good they actually are are Sacramento State and Eastern Michigan.  I don’t know as much about this as Joby does, but it does make sense.  Sacramento State is unbeaten, they’ve got two wins away from home, and they’ve beaten Pepperdine and UC Riverside, both of whom have notable wins.  If they beat Colorado in their next game, or are simply able to stay on the floor with them, then we’ll talk.  But for now I think it is more of the math being thrown off by playing and beating teams that aren’t that good, but that have still managed to beat people.

-Same with Eastern Michigan.  Unbeaten, but unchallenged and….actually, that one does have me a little confused.  I mean, they really haven’t been challenged AT ALL!!  At least they have two neutral court and 1 road win as part of their 6.

-Is Kent State the #18 team in the nation??  Probably not, but they’re also probably better than what most people think.  A top 100 win over Wright St away from home gives them a lot of strength.

-Is Delaware the #23 team in the nation??  Probably not, but for now they’re unbeaten, they’ve won away from home (5 of their 6 games have been outside the friendly confines of the First State), and they’ve sort of earned that spot.

-Kentucky comes in on the #8 line.  They do have a spectacular win against Michigan State, but that was also cancelled out by the home loss to Evansville, and Evansville has been terrible since that game.  The good win and bad loss sort of balance each other out.  No worries for Kentucky, though.  They are legit and I believe there are many many many more good wins along the way.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Nov 25th

NEWS AND NOTES

-Arizona State had a shot at the buzzer that would have tied the game against Virginia, but missed it.  The game was an absolute rock fight, but Virignia’s defense continues to suffocate basically anything that comes up against it, and they went on to win 48-45.

-Louisville held on to beat Akron 72-66.  They were never in danger of losing the game, but they didn’t exactly bury them either.  I know Akron ain’t bad, but Louisville is ranked #2 in the nation.  They have a nice win at Miami FL and five buy game wins on top of that.  Their next game against Western Kentucky in Nashville will probably be their biggest challenge of the season up to that point.  There are certainly bigger ones later on.

-Florida snapped out of whatever early season funk they were win by knocking off Xavier and winning The Charleston Classic.  Florida had a lead as big as 15pts in the second half, but Xavier fought back and actually had a shot in the final seconds to tie the game, but it didn’t go down and the Gators held on.  I now think that the Gators just hit the snooze bar when the season started, and that’s why they looked sub-par in their first four or five gamse.  They’re awake now!

-Utah State held on to win against North Texas in yet another game that was more of a challenge than you would expect, but they did get the win.

-Baylor picked up a really nice win against Villanova down in Myrtle Beach, and that is easily the biggest win of the season for the Bears up to this point.  Nova is still looking for their first really big win, although they did get a pretty good one against Mississippi State.

-Colorado stayed unbeaten after beating their Front Range rivals in the Las Vegas Something-or-Other tournament.  If you didn’t see this game, don’t bother to go back and watch it!

-Ron Hunter is off to a fantastic start at Tulane.  They knocked off Utah yesterday to improve to 5-1 on the year, and picked up a few neutral floor wins in the process.  By no means do I think Tulane has improved to the point of being a tournament caliber team, but they have improved.  It will be fun to watch what Ron Hunter does with this program in the coming years.

-LSU picked up a nice neutral floor win down in Jamaica against a Rhode Island team that had been playing pretty well.

-Saint John’s got by a UMass team that had done a little better than expected out of the gate to improve to 5-2.

-Duquesne blew out LMU in the finals of the Junkanoo Jam to remain unbeaten on the year.

-Bowling Green picked up their second really nice win in 24hrs after coming from behind to beat Cincinnati down in the Paradise Jam.  BGSU is now 5-1 on the season with neutral floor wins against Western Kentucky and Cincinnati.  This is a really fun team to watch and we will certainly have our eyes on them moving forward.

-Clemson needed overtime, but got by TCU, which was the first loss for the Horned Frogs and Clemson’s fifth straight win since they lost their season opener.

-UConn blasted past Miami FL to finish with two wins down in the Charleston Classic.  Their only loss was the double overtime thriller to Xavier, so UConn is certainly looking much improved this season.

-Vermont fell at home to Rider.  This is right after we were singing their praises and saying that we thought they were an at-large caliber team.  They are still very good, and nothing against Rider, but this was a rather inexplicable loss.

-Last, and probably least, Evansville snapped a three game losing streak with a triple overtime win, against Morgan State, in the 7th place game of the Island of the Bahamas Showcase.  They haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire since their big win at Kentucky.  I’m now ready to simply call that win a fluke.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-COLORADO STATE VS NEW MEXICO STATE (Cayman Islands Classic).  I still think that at the end of the season New Mexico State will be a top 25 caliber team.  The problem is that they’ve been so beat up with injuries that they’re out to just a 2-3 start against so-so competition, so one of the games that they need to win is that last conference tournament game because without it they won’t make The Dance.  They have a chance to even up their record today and pick up some wins away from home in this event.

-GRAND CANYON VS ILLINOIS STATE (Paradise Jam).  A matchup between two teams that have really underachieved so far this season.  At least one of them will walk out of here with a semi-decent win away from home.

-GEORGIA VS DAYTON (Maui Invitational).  Both teams come in unbeaten, but up to this point Dayton hasn’t won anything but home buy games.  Georgia at least has a nice win against Georgia Tech under their belts.  It’s a chance at a notable neutral floor win and a chance to move on and likely play better competition in the next two rounds, which means more opportunities.

-FORDHAM VS WESTERN KENTUCKY (Paradise Jam).  Both teams have just one loss.  This is a very talented WKU team, but that has a rather small margin for error so they’re going to want to pick this one up and add another neutral floor win to their resume.  Fordham may rescind back into being Fordham, but at least for now they are 4-1 and if they were somehow able to win this game then they’d have more early season momentum built up than they have in quite some time.

-VIRGINIA TECH VS MICHIGAN STATE (Maui Invitational).  VA Tech comes in with a somewhat impressive 5-0 record.  They haven’t played top level competition, but we were expecting them to be in such a rebuilding mode that the 5-0 start still looks pretty good.  Michigan State has won three straight since losing their opener to Kentucky and can pick up some really nice wins in this event.

-GEORGE MASON VS OLD DOMINION (Cayman Islands Classic).  George Mason is out to a 5-1 start and if they can do well in this event then they will continue to build on what is a pretty good early season resume.  They may be at team to keep an eye on throughout the season.

-CINCINNATI VS VALPARAISO (Paradise Jam).  Cincinnati lost to Bowling Green the other night and is just trying to pick up another win in this event.  Valpo has played pretty well this season, so it may not be a cakewalk.

-PITTSBURGH VS KANSAS STATE (Fort Myers Classic).  K State is off to a 4-0 start, but this will probably be their biggest test of the season so far.  Having said that, Pitt, while better this year, hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire.  If K State is  a tournament caliber team then this is the kind of game that they need to be able to win.

-KENT STATE AT OHIO STATE.  It’s a buy game, but Kent State is unbeaten and one of the better teams in the MAC.  This is a huge opportunity for them to pick up a quality win, but it’s far easier said than done.  Ohio State is ranked in the top ten, and they’ve certainly earned it based on some of the games they’ve won.

-BUTLER VS MISSOURI (Hall of Fame Classic).  The game is in Kansas City, and features two teams that are out to pretty good starts.  Mizzou’s only loss was a close one at Xavier, and it was close despite the fact that they really didn’t play well.  Butler has dealt with injuries, but has still won all of their games and appears to be better than expected this year.  This should be a really fun match-up.

-WISCONSIN VS RICHMOND (Legends Classic).  Richmond is 4-0, and I do think the Spiders have a decent team this year, but this is far and away their toughest test of the season so far.  Wisconsin has won four straight since losing their season opener in overtime and can build on their resume during this event.

-ARKANSAS AT GEORGIA TECH.  Arkansas is unbeaten and can pick up a pretty nice road win today against a Georgia Tech team that has played well at times.

-WASHINGTON STATE VS NEBRASKA (Cayman Islands Classic).  This game is only highlighted because of the Stallings Award implications that it has.  That is the award that Hoops HD gives out each year to the worst non-UTR team!

-LA SALLE VS MURRAY STATE (Gulf Coast Showcase).  If Murray State wants any chance at all of landing inside the bubble then they are going to need to continue to rack up wins.

-NEVADA VS BOWLING GREEN (Paradise Jam).  Bowling Green has already picked up two pretty decent wins against Western Kentucky and Cincinnati.  If they can get a third then their resume is suddenly looking very good, at least for the month of November.  More importantly, they are creating a path for themselves to land inside the bubble if they can continue to make noise throughout the season.

-BRADLEY VS NORTHWESTERN (Fort Meyers Tip-Off).  Bradley is 4-1 and has a winnable game today against Northwestern.

-KANSAS VS CHAMINADE (nondiv1) (Maui Invitational).  Kansas has a chance to pick up some really good wins in this event.  After today.

-AUBURN VS NEW MEXICO (Legends Classic).  Auburn comes in unbeaten, but this game will hardly be a cakewalk.  New Mexico has just one loss, and it was a close one at UTEP.  New Mexico has been kind of dormant for the past several season, but if they can get a win in a game like this then their fanbase and program will be re-energized.

-STANFORD VS OKLAHOMA (Hall of Fame Classic).  Both teams come into this game without a loss, and while both have looked good there are still question marks about both of them.  Still, it’s a good early season match-up between two teams that have played well up to this point.

-BYU VS UCLA (Maui Invitational).  As we discussed on a previous Hoops HD Report, this is a really big game because the winner gets a quality win on a neutral floor and gets to go on to most likely play Kansas.  The loser gets Chaminade in the loser’s bracket and really only ends up with one chance at a decent win before the end of the event.

 

BUY GAMES

-Chattanooga @ Tennessee
-Alabama State @ VCU
-Chicago State @ Florida State
-SELA @ Vanderbilt
-Louisiana Tech @ Indiana
-Tennessee State @ San Diego State

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Under The Radar Game of the Day – Monday, November 25th

Oakland (4-2, 3-2 D1) at Northern Illinois (5-2, 4-2 D1) – 8:00 PM EST (ESPN+)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to DeKalb, Illinois – home of the Northern Illinois Huskies. They will host the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in a non-Feast Week matchup. Oakland already played in the Sunshine Slam earlier in the season – they beat UT-San Antonio and Southern Illinois in Kissimmee, Florida after a tournament-opening loss to Delaware. Xavier Hill-Mais leads Oakland through the first six games with 14.0 points a game and 7.7 rebounds a game.

Northern Illinois opened their season with back-to-back losses against Northern Iowa and at Iowa State, but they have since rebounded with five straight wins (most notably at Western Illinois and at SIU-Edwardsville). Eugene German currently leads the Huskies with 21.4 points a game and 2.7 assists a game through their first seven games.

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