As the holiday weekend starts to wind down, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to put together the weekly Hoops HD staff bracket this week. This is NOT what Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller do as part of their exercise to guess what the Selection Committee does; rather this is what we feel the bracket should look like at this point in the season. Without further ado:
First Four Out: Indiana, Ohio State, Kansas State, Creighton
Others considered: Washington, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma
– I think there is little doubt that Michigan is currently the top overall seed given their body of work and margin of victory; Arizona does have the singular best win with a victory at fellow 1-seed UConn.
– Teams like Vanderbilt and Nebraska get some benefit of the doubt with undefeated records going into conference play, but they don’t have the same level of quality wins as others in the top 2 lines. That said, Vandy did destroy Wake on the road and are more than capable of doing similar damage when SEC play rolls around.
– Ordinarily I should have Michigan in the Midwest Region, but the placement of Arizona and Iowa State as the top two seeds makes this impossible to pull off thanks to BYU. BYU can’t be in the West region because of Arizona and I doubt the Selection Committee would drop the Cougars from their natural 3-seed down to the 5-line for such an accomodation. I wonder what Chad would have done in this circumstance.
– I know I’m probably being a Big East homer having 5 teams from the league in the current bracket, but this again is where things stand through today. The margin of error is small for Villanova and Seton Hall and even smaller for Butler and St. John’s. However, as bad as the bubble is, I wouldn’t write off Creighton either. They are dismantling teams ever since the holiday break began.
– Frankly, Kansas State isn’t completely dead in the water either. The road win at Creighton is looming larger and they also have wins against Tulsa and California in their back pocket as well. They also have a neutral court win against Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs might be at the bottom of the SEC this season.
– I had VCU as my last team in the field thanks to a victory against Virginia Tech; they have almost no margin for error in the A-10 though. They’re going to have to put up a very strong conference record to stay in the at-large hunt.
COMMENTS FROM STAFF:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:
-As much as I’ve beaten up on Kansas State, and while I initially did a spittake when I saw how close Stalica had them to his field, he actually does have a point. I don’t know how this happened, but their profile actually isn’t awful. The Big 12 will give them the chances they need to play their way inside the bubble if they’re good enough. Having said that, I still think that the “good enough” part of that will prove to be a big problem.
-I’m actually with Stalica on Butler! I think they have a good enough team to rack up the record they need to in Big East play to make the field.
-As is the case with most bracket projections, when I look at the teams on the 12 line, and then compare them to the teams on the 9 line, I’d much rather play the teams on the 9 line.
Tonight’s feature conference is the Missouri Valley, which is hands down looking like the strongest UTR conference. Belmont is off to a great start with just one loss and appears to have a path to landing inside the bubble. Northern Iowa (who barely lost at Saint Mary’s), Murray State, and Illinois State have also looked really strong.
After that we run through the other 21 UTR conferences and look at UC San Diego’s tough loss to San Diego, how strong McNeese looks despite an upset earlier on this season, Quinnipiac and Navy look like the favorites to win their leagues, Miami OH remains unbeaten but has lost a key player for the season, and the two best teams in the WAC face each other in the conference opener. We discuss all that, and more! And as we do every week, we close with this week’s UTR Top Ten.
And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
-College basketball will be taking a hiatus until Saturday. Unfortunately there is no Diamond Head Classic this year! The Diamond Head Classic was such a great event in the past! The days of both the semifinals and finals actually felt like a national holiday of sorts!
-Tulsa got a scare from Denver yesterday, but held on to win 90-85 and avoided what would have been a very damaging loss.
-Northern Iowa hung with Saint Mary’s on the road, and actually had a lead for much of the game, but SMC pulled it out down the stretch 63-58. This would have been a signature road win for UNI and a big statement to the committee had they been able to pull the upset.
-Seattle also had some trouble at UTSA, but was able to pick up another road win with their 71-68 victory improves to 11-2 on the year.
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HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-VILLANOVA AT SETON HALL (Big East). Both these teams have completely outperformed their preseason expectations so far with Seton Hall being one of the biggest surprises in all of college basketball. It’s an important conference game for both teams. With Nova coming in at 9-2 and Seton Hall being 11-1, both have paths to landing inside the bubble come March.
-UCF vs FAU – I’m starting to become a believer in this UCF team. I know they haven’t played the toughest of schedules, but they’ve won all their games other than the loss to Vanderbilt. They’ll face a bit of a test on a neutral court today.
-Bellarmine @ Kentucky -Grambling @ Ohio State -UC Riverside @ UCLA -Harvard @ Saint John’s
It’s our last show before Christmas! We run through all of the major conferences and discuss Texas Tech’s big come from behind win against Duke and how strong the Big 12 is with as many as five teams in position to end up with protected seeds, The ACC has a lot of teams like Cal, and Stanford, and SMU, and several others who are outperforming their preseason rankings and is much stronger than it was a year ago. Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State are still going strong in the Big Ten, and Vanderbilt is the biggest story in the SEC. We also discuss how much the Big East is struggling, and how the WCC, A10, American, and MWC might all be one big leagues.
And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…
-Vanderbilt didn’t just win at Wake Forest. They blew their doors off! The 98-67 win for Vandy on the road may be their most impressive showing of the season so far. They remain unbeaten and continue to look like one of the better teams in the SEC.
-Pittsburgh blew Penn State off of their own floor 80-46. Pitt had not looked good at all this season, and Penn State was showing possible signs of promise, so this was a bit of a surprising result. (Note from Stalica – the game was actually played at the Giant Center in Hershey PA – it will be a neutral-court victory for Pitt, silly Puppet)
-Oregon State had not looked all that good at any point this season either, but they went on the road and knocked off a pretty good Arizona State team 78-75. The loss is definitely a setback for Arizona State, but playing in the Big 12 will give them more than enough chances to make up for it if they really are a tournament caliber team.
-Notre Dame, who I was beginning to think wasn’t the worst team in all of the ACC, lost at home to Purdue Fort Wayne 72-69. PFW is a team we were kind of thinking would finish around the middle of the Horizon League, so this was not a result we saw coming.
-Cincinnati completely slept through their alarm against Clemson and fell behind by more than 20 early in the game. They came all the way back and had a chance to win on the final possession, but a 3pt shot that would have forced overtime did not go down at the buzzer. Clemson survived 68-65.
-Georgetown head coach Ed Cooley will serve a one-game suspension tonight for throwing a water bottle in the stands Saturday night after the Hoyas lost to Xavier – the water bottle inadvertently struck a young boy and his mother in the stands. Cooley did immediately apologize after the incident during the Saturday postgame press conference and on Sunday afterwards. Jeff Battle will be the interim head coach tonight when Georgetown hosts Coppin State at McDonough Arena.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-DAVIDSON AT KANSAS. Kansas should be able to hold serve in this one, but Davidson is off to a pretty good start and has an opportunity (albeit a tough one) to get a win that will slingshot them into the spotlight. This is a chance to see what they can do against a high caliber opponent.
-MISSOURI VS ILLINOIS (Saint Louis MO). It’s the Braggin’ Rights Game!!!! Illinois clearly looks to be the superior team. They are looking like a potential protected seed whereas Mizzou is going to have to start playing a lot better just to get anywhere near making the field, but we’ve seen some crazy things happen in this game before. If Missouri were to pull off the upset it may completely turn their season around.
-NORTHERN IOWA AT SAINT MARY’S. Northern Iowa is a solid UTR team that has played (for the most part) a really weak schedule and needs a win like this on their profile to get any sort of attention from the committee. Saint Mary’s is a probable NCAA Tournament team and a win in a game like this will likely end up looking good on their resume.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Seattle U @ UTSA – Seattle can improve to an impressive 11-2 on the year and pick up their third true road win tonight
-Siena @ Indiana – It’s a buy game that Indiana should win, but Siena has a solid record (albeit against a weak schedule) and the Hoosiers don’t want to overlook them
ONE LAST STOP AT THE BAKERY FOR CUPCAKES BEFORE CHRISTMAS:
-Milligan (nonD1) @ Miami OH -West Georgia @ Georgia -NJIT @ Butler -Denver @ Tulsa -American @ Virginia -Coppin State @ Georgetown -Prairie View @ LSU -Mississippi Valley State @ West Virginia -Stonehill @ Syracuse -Rider @ VCU -East Carolina @ North Carolina -Central Michigan @ Wisconsin -UMES @ Texas -Utah Tech @ Creighton -Bethune Cookman @ Arizona -Eastern Washington @ BYU -Stetson @ Oklahoma -San Diego @ Washington
-The biggest story of the day was, hands down, Texas Tech’s 82-81 win at Duke. Duke led by as much as 17 in the second half. I don’t have the data on the number of times Duke has been ranked in the top five, had a 17 point second half lead, and not won the game, but I’m betting it isn’t often. Texas Tech battled back, kept it within reach, got the lead with less than 2 mins to go, and held on to win after Duke missed what would have been a game winning shot at the buzzer. The Red Raiders had no real big wins coming into yesterday. They now have one of the single most impressive wins that any team will manage this season.
-Purdue absolutely blew Auburn into the sun 88-60. It isn’t the first time Auburn has been absolutely blown out this year, and I’m starting to question just how high their ceiling actually is.
-Houston managed a solid 94-85 win over Arkansas out in New Jersey for one of their better wins of the season. I still think we will see both these teams improve as the season goes on and both will be dangerous come March.
-North Carolina got a major scare from Ohio State, but held on to win 71-70 in the CBS Sports Classic. The Buckeyes don’t have any really big wins yet, but they’ve played well and they showed yesterday that they are capable of winning big games. They will certainly have more chances to do that in Big Ten play so they’ll have the opportunities to land inside the bubble.
-In the first half of the CBS Sports Classic, Kentucky got what was easily their biggest win of the season both on and off paper as they knocked off Saint John’s 78-66. They had to come from behind to do it, but totally outplayed the Johnnies in the second half. It was sort of a surprising result, and as big of a win as it was for Kentucky it also raises questions about Saint John’s. They just haven’t looked that good this season and they haven’t managed any real notable wins yet.
-Dayton was a team that we liked, but knew had a small margin for error. It is now much much smaller. They’ll to Liberty 64-61 at home. Liberty is good, but they’re not so good that a tournament caliber team should not be expected to beat them at home.
-Utah State absolutely blew out Colorado State 100-58. Utah State has looked good all year, but they probably looked better yesterday than they’ve looked in the last several years. It was an impressive blowout win against a pretty solid Colorado State team.
-Virginia Tech needed overtime but held on to beat Elon 82-81. Elon is one of several CAA teams that can be dangerous and that should be fun to watch the rest of the year, and they nearly pulled off a rather notable upset yesterday.
-Wyoming, who I was really big on, lost at home to Grand Canyon 82-70 in a game that was sort of surprising. Wyoming had nearly beaten that same Texas Tech team that just beat Duke and really seemed to be on a roll, so to see them drop a home game to GCU was unexpected.
-Butler held off Northwestern for a 61-58 win and is now a solid 9-3 on the season and should be able to make some noise in the Big East.
-Santa Clara, who I had been touting as an at-large team, is no longer in that category. They suffered a punishing 80-78 loss to a very weak Loyola Chicago team and that his just going to anchor down their NCAA Tournament resume. It was essentially a home buy game. Or at least it should have been.
-Stanford picked up a real solid 77-68 win over Colorado in Phoenix to improve to 10-2 on the year. They are much better than expected, they beat a pretty good team yesterday, and it will be fun to see what they can do in the ACC.
-Boise State could have really used a road win at Nevada yesterday, and didn’t get it. They fell 81-66 in their conference opener.
-Xavier continues to be up and down this season. After being annihilated in their previous game, they bounced back and got a big 80-77 road win against a fairly decent Georgetown team. It looked like Georgetown may be good enough to land inside the bubble, but not being able to hold serve in games like this will make it tough for them to get there.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES:
-VANDERBILT AT WAKE FOREST. Vandy looks to remain unbeaten on the year and Wake is still looking for a signature win. Wake lost to both Michigan and Texas Tech by a single point, so they are capable of playing at a high level, but have yet to pick up a high level win that makes their resume pop. This would easily be their biggest win of the year so far if they’re able to pull it off.
-OLE MISS AT NC STATE. Neither team has been quite as good as expected so far. Both need to build up their resumes and both could really use this win today.
OTHER NOTABLE GAMES:
-Pittsburgh @ Penn State – Penn State is having a solid season and should be able to hold serve in this one to improve to 9-3
-Quinnipiac @ Hofstra – neither team is likely to land anywhere near the bubble, but it’s two really solid UTR teams and it should be a fun matchup
-Oregon State @ Arizona State – Arizona State looks like they’re good enough to make a run at the bubble and should be able to hold serve at home in this one
-Cincinnati @ Clemson – Cincinnati has struggled this year and looks like a sub-level NIT team. Clemson looks like a solid tournament team and this is the kind of game they should be expected to hold serve in and win
-Connecticut @ DePaul (Big East) – This should be a very winnable conference road game for UConn
-Indiana State @ Illinois State (Missouri Valley) – Illinois State is looking a ton better after a somewhat sluggish start. They can improve to 10-3 overall with a win today
-Columbia @ California – this is a surprisingly fun one. Columbia is off to a great 9-2 start, but they haven’t won a game as big as this. Cal is one of the bigger surprises of the season so far and can improve to 12-1 if they can hold serve in this one
-Oregon @ Gonzaga – Oregon has struggled with injuries and don’t appear to be much of a match for a top ten level team like Gonzaga
BUY GAMES:
-Colgate @ Florida -Southern @ Baylor -Kennesaw State vs Alabama (Huntsville AL) – Kennesaw is good but is likely way overmatched -Loyola MD @ George Mason -Central Arkansas @ SMU -PFW @ Notre Dame -Cal State Fullerton @ Oklahoma State -Gardner Webb @ Tennessee -New Hampshire @ Saint Louis -La Salle @ Michigan -UC Santa Cruz (nonD1) @ USC -East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M -Florida A&M @ TCU -North Florida @ Miami FL -Long Beach State @ Iowa State -North Dakota @ Nebraska
Hoops HD Staff Bracket – Friday, December 26
As the holiday weekend starts to wind down, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to put together the weekly Hoops HD staff bracket this week. This is NOT what Jon Teitel and Rocco Miller do as part of their exercise to guess what the Selection Committee does; rather this is what we feel the bracket should look like at this point in the season. Without further ado:
First Four Out: Indiana, Ohio State, Kansas State, Creighton
Others considered: Washington, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma
– I think there is little doubt that Michigan is currently the top overall seed given their body of work and margin of victory; Arizona does have the singular best win with a victory at fellow 1-seed UConn.
– Teams like Vanderbilt and Nebraska get some benefit of the doubt with undefeated records going into conference play, but they don’t have the same level of quality wins as others in the top 2 lines. That said, Vandy did destroy Wake on the road and are more than capable of doing similar damage when SEC play rolls around.
– Ordinarily I should have Michigan in the Midwest Region, but the placement of Arizona and Iowa State as the top two seeds makes this impossible to pull off thanks to BYU. BYU can’t be in the West region because of Arizona and I doubt the Selection Committee would drop the Cougars from their natural 3-seed down to the 5-line for such an accomodation. I wonder what Chad would have done in this circumstance.
– I know I’m probably being a Big East homer having 5 teams from the league in the current bracket, but this again is where things stand through today. The margin of error is small for Villanova and Seton Hall and even smaller for Butler and St. John’s. However, as bad as the bubble is, I wouldn’t write off Creighton either. They are dismantling teams ever since the holiday break began.
– Frankly, Kansas State isn’t completely dead in the water either. The road win at Creighton is looming larger and they also have wins against Tulsa and California in their back pocket as well. They also have a neutral court win against Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs might be at the bottom of the SEC this season.
– I had VCU as my last team in the field thanks to a victory against Virginia Tech; they have almost no margin for error in the A-10 though. They’re going to have to put up a very strong conference record to stay in the at-large hunt.
COMMENTS FROM STAFF:
COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:
-As much as I’ve beaten up on Kansas State, and while I initially did a spittake when I saw how close Stalica had them to his field, he actually does have a point. I don’t know how this happened, but their profile actually isn’t awful. The Big 12 will give them the chances they need to play their way inside the bubble if they’re good enough. Having said that, I still think that the “good enough” part of that will prove to be a big problem.
-I’m actually with Stalica on Butler! I think they have a good enough team to rack up the record they need to in Big East play to make the field.
-As is the case with most bracket projections, when I look at the teams on the 12 line, and then compare them to the teams on the 9 line, I’d much rather play the teams on the 9 line.