NEWS AND NOTES
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-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day between Ball State and Bowling Green – CLICK HERE
-NC State lost at home to North Carolina last night, which appears to be their second straight loss to a team that won’t even be playing in the NIT. They were on the bubble a week ago. That is not how you go about ending up on the right side of the bubble.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-VILLANOVA AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). The Johnnies just got a big win against DePaul, but they still got a lot of work to do. Beating Villanova is a tall order even at home, but if they want to land on the right side of the bubble they need to answer some tall orders.
-TEXAS A&M AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Tennessee is on the bubble and needs to hold serve in games like this, which are home games against non-tournament teams.
-FLORIDA STATE AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Florida State needs this win to keep the #1 line within reach. Virginia needs this win to keep the bubble within reach. As much as the Hoos have struggled, they are only a few big wins away from being back inside the bubble.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT FLORIDA (SEC). Florida continues to linger in that area between the bubble and the top half of the bracket, which means they are inside the bubble, but can’t put the cruise control on yet. It is important that they hold serve in this one tonight.
-SMU AT CINCINNATI (American). SMU just picked up a big win against Memphis, and is suddenly looking like a tournament caliber team. A win today would further their case even more. Cincinnati has had a rough year, but they have been playing better lately and are entering a stretch of their schedule where they face decent competition, so if they can continue to string together wins then they can play their way inside the bubble.
-RICHMOND AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). It’s a rivalry game between two teams that look more like NIT teams than NCAA teams, but who can still get inside the bubble if they can finish strong.
-SYRACUSE AT CLEMSON (ACC). Syracuse has won five in a row and continues to build up their resume. Another road win would polish it up even more.
-MICHIGAN AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Michigan has not won a true road game this season, and this is perhaps their most winnable road game. They’ve also lost four in a row and really need to pull themselves out of that. If they lose this one, then they may be reaching panic mode.
-PURDUE AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). Purdue’s level of play is all over the place. Some nights they look like a top 15 team and other nights they look like a CBI team. Rutgers needs to hold serve at home in order to remain on pace to make the top half of the bracket.
-VIRGINIA TECH AT MIAMI FL (ACC). VA Tech has taken a few steps back, and needs to win this game because it’s the kind of road game that NCAA teams are expected to win. It’s not an easy win, but then again making the NCAA Tournament is not an easy thing to do.
-GEORGIA AT MISSOURI (SEC). Georgia is outside the bubble and has really digressed since the start of conference play. They need to pick this one up on the road. They’ll still have more work to do after this, but a win tonight would at least be a start.
-PITTSBURGH AT DUKE (ACC). Duke remains in contention for the #1 line and needs to hold serve at home. Pitt is outside the bubble, but they’re still much improved from a year ago. This is probably too tall of an order to fill, but if they were to win it then they’d certainly be in the conversation for a bid.
-BUTLER AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Butler ended a three game losing streak with a big overtime win against Marquette, but like every Big East game they have another big challenge on the road tonight. Georgetown is still within reach of the bubble, but they really need to string together some big wins to make it happen.
-AUBURN AT OLE MISS (SEC). Auburn’s best win of the season has probably been at Mississippi State. If they can beat Ole Miss tonight, it will give them just their second true road win against an NIT caliber team, and that would probably help their resume out some.
Staff Bracket – January 26, 2020
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It is once again Chad’s turn to put together the weekly HoopsHD Staff Bracket Projection. Below is the bracket as he sees it through all games of Sunday, January 26. Under the bracket is Chad’s notes on the projection as well as comments from several other staff members. Please note that this is not an attempt to guess where the actual bracket will be on Selection Sunday, but rather Chad’s personal view of how the teams should match up if the season ended today.
CHAD’S NOTES
– The biggest mover on the top couple of lines is Seton Hall, a team that I am now placing all the way up on the 2 line — and at #6 overall nationally! This team now has a whopping SEVEN Tier 1 victories with FIVE of those coming in true road games. They have no bad losses at all on their profile to go with that, and two of the wins (at Butler and home vs Maryland) are against teams that I have as protected seeds. I just love this profile right now — and this is coming from a Rutgers alum who loves to find any excuse to hate on the Hall.
– I may get some grief for LSU being on the 5 line, but the Tigers are undefeated in SEC play and have four wins away from home against the top two tiers. They have done all of that against the #10 SOS in the nation, too.
– I know David and John are not high on Auburn, but I am still putting them on the 6 line because of their 17-2 overall record. They don’t have much, if anything, in terms of marquee wins, but they have a TON of solid NIT-caliber victories and that has to count for something.
– Arizona is a 9 seed. I know that most people have them rated way higher than this, but I just don’t see much I like at all in their profile. They have one Tier 1 win, and it was at home. They have 6 losses. Yes, the #4 SOS in the nation counts, but I need to see one or two more notches in the top two tiers and something — anything — on the road. In other words completely blowing the game this weekend at Arizona State did the Wildcats no favors whatsoever.
– Syracuse is in. 5 wins in a row has them there, deservedly so. Arizona State is in, but one of the last few teams in my field. I may not like the Arizona Wildcats profile as much as others, but it is still a huge scalp that boosts ASU’s profile from “barely on the board” to “solidly on the bubble”.
– Texas Tech and DePaul were my last two teams in and I hated putting both teams in the field — the Red Raiders because they have done nothing but beat Louisville on a neutral court and the Blue Demons because there was no excuse for Saturday’s loss to the Johnnies.
– My top four teams out, in order, were Minnesota, Tennessee, Utah and Rhode Island. Beyond those were Georgetown, Virginia, St John’s and Xavier. I also took a look at Richmond, Memphis, VCU, TCU, Alabama, Utah State and Pitt.
– Among the Under the Radar leagues, I do have East Tennessee State ranked above two of my First Four teams, and think this team can get some serious at-large consideration if they need it (and keep winning). Liberty, a team I did not think would lose at all in A-Sun play, went 0-2 on their trip to North Florida and Stetson, has now fallen to the 13 line, and will have to win the automatic bid to be in the Big Dance.
STAFF COMMENTS
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Since losing to Rutgers, Seton Hall has won nine straight games. Three of those were at Xavier, Butler, and Saint John’s. Those teams are a combined 30-6 at home. Three of those six losses came to Seton Hall. This is a team that’s rolling and may be playing as well as anyone other than Baylor right now.
-I think Dayton’s team is better than their profile. They’ve yet to lose a game in regulation, and one of the two games they lost was against a full strength Kansas team, which you can hardly fault them for. The road wins at Saint Louis and Richmond may not scream protected seed, but those two teams have lost just four total home games, and two of those were to Dayton. They’ve also pretty much blown through their schedule like you would expect a top ten team to. I have them at the top of my #3 line, and think they’re closer to a 2 seed than a 4 seed.
-I don’t understand why beating a bunch of NIT teams impresses Chad as much as it does, but low and behold, he’s got Auburn on his #6 line. That’s the only thing that he did that was particularly outrageous, so I guess you have to give him some credit for doing an average job instead of a terrible job.
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I have no complaints about Chad’s choice of protected seeds – Maryland really helped themselves by finally getting a notable road win at Indiana yesterday.
– I look at a potential Marquette-Stanford in an 8-9 matchup (although not paired in Chad’s bracket) and feel like this ought to be a 6-11 matchup instead. Marquette is underseeded with the toughest part of their schedule behind them and Stanford is looking flimsier by the day thanks to a last-second loss at Cal last night. The Cardinal really couldn’t afford any bad loss on a resume that only has Oklahoma as a real notable win thus far.
– I think Virginia is getting closer to getting back into the field, and I’d rather put them in the field right now as opposed to a team like DePaul who has now let 2 of their easier opportunities for league wins slip away after getting swept by St. John’s. Using my Joe Lunardi logic, losses against NC State and Syracuse aren’t as offensive now, but losing at BC – don’t tell me the Eagles will be the one to keep Tony Bennett on the #HotSeat.
– Frankly, I think Chad could even be justified in swapping out Liberty and Wright State for now. Liberty flamed out (pun intended) after losing back-to-back road games to fall into a 3-way tie for first place in the A-Sun while Wright State did things to Northern Kentucky that would be illegal in most parts of the country.