Hoops HD

Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 3

Posted on March 7, 2019 by John Stalica

CLICK HERE for the updated Hoops HD Survival Board

CLICK HERE for all the conference tournament brackets

We begin tonight’s podcast by reviewing results of games by teams on the bubble – for Seton Hall, for example, they helped themselves tremendously with a win at home against a Marquette team that is suddenly fading. For Washington and Clemson, they survived potentially devastating losses. For NC State, Ohio State and Georgetown, those teams had devastating losses against Georgia Tech, Northwestern and DePaul, respectively.

The Northeast Conference and Ohio Valley conferences began their tournaments and the Horizon League completed their quarterfinal games that were played on campus sites. We also looked ahead to other conference tournaments resuming tomorrow – the Atlantic Sun will have their semifinal games tomorrow while the Big South, OVC and Patriot will all have their quarterfinal games tomorrow.

Finally, we also previewed three conferences that will begin their tournaments tomorrow – the Metro Atlantic, the Missouri Valley and the West Coast Conferences.

And for all of you who are radio lovers and/or on the go, here is the audio-only link:

ATLANTIC SUN SEMIFINALS:

BIG SOUTH QUARTERFINALS:

OHIO VALLEY QUARTERFINALS:

PATRIOT LEAGUE QUARTERFINALS:

METRO ATLANTIC OPENING ROUND:

MISSOURI VALLEY OPENING ROUND:

WEST COAST CONFERENCE OPENING ROUND:

Posted in Bracketology, Championship Week Video Notebook, Podcasts, Videocasts | Comments Off

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, March 6th

Posted on March 6, 2019 by David Griggs

CLICK HERE for our Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 2

NEWS AND NOTES

-Last night started off with some good news for bubble teams – Xavier lost at Butler and may have struck out at least as far as at-large seeding goes. They would still clinch at least a bye into the Big East quarterfinals with a home win against St. John’s on Saturday – it would also be the 37th consecutive season of at least a .500 conference record.

-The biggest game came from a completely unexpected source. Duke had to sweat out Wake Forest at home and got a really fortuitous bounce at the end when a potential game-winner from Wake rimmed out. The fact that Duke is a #1 seed with Zion Williamson, and sweating out Wake Forest at home without Zion Williamson is….shocking. I know he’s good, but they’ve got other players who are also good. You’d think they’d at least be good enough to not have to sweat out a team that’s outside the top 100 at home.

-It is official. Kansas will not win the Big 12 regular season title thanks to their loss at Oklahoma. They are looking like they will not be a protected seed either unless they make a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament next week.

-Minnesota was another bubble team that helped itself immensely with a win at home against Purdue. The loss drops the Boilers into a three-way tie with Michigan and Michigan State in the Big 10 standings.

-The basketball Iron Bowl went to Auburn last night – they got a decent road win at Alabama and puts the Tide squarely on the fence going into their regular season finale at Arkansas.

-Florida State also won a crucial game at home against Virginia Tech – the Noles are now the best team below the Big 3 of Virginia, Duke and North Carolina in the ACC. Their odds of getting a protected seed got better.

-Kentucky and Buffalo both had to sweat out games on the road, but ended up winning nonetheless.

-MARQUETTE AT SETON HALL (Big East). This is suddenly a very pivotal and rather crucial game for Seton Hall. They have some big wins, but with a schizophrenic profile that has an equal share of questionable losses, an overall record of just 16-12, and already being two games under .500 in Big East play, they need some stability on their resume. This one is huge. It’s a big game for Marquette as well if they want to end up as a protected seed.

-LSU AT FLORIDA (SEC). LSU has a chance to finish first in the SEC, and some feel has an outside chance of playing their way all the way up to the #1 line. The Gators are squarely on the bubble. Strangely enough, their biggest win of the season was against LSU, but they’ve got a little more work to do if they want to make the field and beating them for a second time would certainly help.

-IOWA STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12). This is a winnable road game for an Iowa State team that still has a shot at a protected seed if they can finish strong. They’re a respectable 5-5 in true road games, so picking the low hanging fruit here would certainly help.

-GEORGETOWN AT DEPAUL (Big East). Some feel that Georgetown still has a path to the NCAA Tournament, and perhaps they do, but that path does not involve them losing to DePaul. Whatever small chance they have will be gone (without the auto-bid, that is) if they don’t win this one.

-OHIO STATE AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). Ohio State could REALLY do without a loss in this one. They’re in the field for now, but this is the kind of game that could have them really sweating on Selection Sunday if they end up losing it.

-CLEMSON AT NOTRE DAME (ACC). Clemson is squarely on the bubble, so every game has a pivotal feel to it. This is a winnable road game and they need to take advantage of it.

-GEORGIA TECH AT NC STATE (ACC). NC State doesn’t have the strongest of resumes either. It is important that they hold serve at home.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT BAYLOR (Big 12). Baylor should be able to hold serve in this one. They’re pretty much a virtual lock for the tournament minus a massive meltdown and are just playing for seeding now.

-OREGON STATE AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve). The loss to Cal last week may have burned up all of Washington’s remaining strikes. They need to take care of business at home tonight, and win their final regular season game this weekend as well.

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Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 2

Posted on March 5, 2019 by David Griggs

Welcome Selection Committee Members!! We are here to help you!! Watch the show and we will tell you what to do!!

CLICK HERE to view the Survival Board and see the status of all the teams that are still playing

CLICK HERE to view all of the conference tournament brackets with the dates, times, and viewing information for all games

We begin by reviewing some of the notable regular season games from Tuesday night, and then look at the action from the opening rounds of the Patriot League, and Big South, and the quarterfinals of the Horizon League. We also take a look at the opening round of the Ohio Valley and the quarterfinals of the NEC that get underway tomorrow.

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

NORTHEAST QUARTERFINALS

HORIZON LEAGUE QUARTERFINALS

OHIO VALLEY OPENING ROUND

OTHER SURVIVAL BOARD NOTES

-McNeese State is eliminated if they lose at home to Northwestern State

-Nicholls is eliminated if they lose at home to TAMUCC

Posted in Bracketology, Championship Week Video Notebook, Podcasts, Videocasts | Comments Off

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Mar 5th

Posted on March 5, 2019 by David Griggs

CLICK HERE for our latest Hoops HD Report and Championship Week Video Notebooks

-If you fell asleep last night and missed everything, you pretty much missed nothing. None of the meaningful games were all that exciting with Texas Tech, Virginia, and K State all winning easily. The four quarterfinal games in the A-Sun were also duds for the most part. Anyway, on to Day 2 of Championship Week!

-XAVIER AT BUTLER (Big East). Neither team is inside the bubble. The only reason we highlight this is because Xavier has been on a rampage, and if they keep it up they could very likely end up crashing the dance. A win today would be their 6th straight.

-WAKE FOREST AT DUKE (ACC). This is such a mismatch that it will likely resemble a buy game. Duke is a likely #1 seed and Wake Forest is not a top 100 team.

-NEBRASKA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Nebraska is in a total tailspin and now seems like they’re just going through the motions until the season ends. Michigan State is coming off a somewhat surprising loss to Indiana, which snapped a five game losing streak, and is looking to bounce back from that.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). Both teams are in the rankings, both teams are virtual locks, and both are pretty much just playing for seeding at this point. Both still have a path to a protected seed and this would be a big step forward for whoever wins this.

-BUFFALO AT OHIO (MAC). Buffalo is cruising toward getting in on the first ballot, and should get there easily if they win out through the regular season, which they are certainly good enough to do.

-VCU AT GEORGE MASON (Atlantic Ten). George Mason has been hot and cold this year, so VCU does not want to overlook them, but they’re certainly capable of winning the game and if they win out through the regular season they should be safely in.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). UNC is now ranked #3 in the nation, and wth a regular season game against Duke and then the ACC Tournament remaining, they’ll have the chances to get up to the #1 line. That is much easier said than done, though.

-PURDUE AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). Purdue is looking more and more like a solid protected seed, and may lock that up with just a few more wins. They face a Minnesota team that’s inside the bubble, but not so far inside that they can just coast through to the end. A win tonight would do wonders for the Gophers.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Tennessee has a path to a #1 seed and I don’t see them doing any worse than a #2. Mississippi State can pretty much cement themselves into the top half of the bracket if they were somehow able to pull off the upset tonight. Both teams are really just playing for seeding at this point.

-KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12). I have beaten up Kansas all year for not winning on the road. They’re coming off of a road win, and if they can pick up another one today I’ll relent and admit that they are not just a protected seed, but a solid protected seed. Oklahoma has been hot and cold this year and while I think they’re in, they’re just 6-10 in league play and could really use a win like this. A loss by Kansas officially ends The Streak as well.

-AUBURN AT ALABAMA (SEC). This is a high stakes games for so many reasons. Auburn is lacking wins of this quality. Alabama is squarely on the bubble and could use a big win to help nudge them to the right side of the fence. And on top of everything else, it’s a rivalry game. This has an EXTREMELY pivotal feel to it.

-UTAH STATE AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West). Utah State is coming off a huge win against Nevada, which should land them on the right side of the bubble so long as they’er able to hold serve the rest of the way in games like this.

-NEVADA AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West). Nevada is still safely in the field and is simply looking to maintain a healthy seed. They should be just fine so long as they don’t trip up in games like this.

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Sowing the seeds we love: HoopsHD interviews Selection Committee member and Toledo Vice-President/Director of Athletics Mike O’Brien

Posted on March 5, 2019 by Jon Teitel

We are less than 2 weeks until Selection Sunday, which means that the 10-member NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee is working hard to place 68 of the best teams in the nation into a tidy little bracket. The Committee revealed its top-16 teams in a sneak preview last month: while it was just a snapshot, 3 of the #1 seeds from last year’s preview DID end up becoming #1 seeds last Selection Sunday (Villanova/Virginia/Xavier). It served as a peek behind the curtain to see what the Committee was thinking and what criteria they value during their analysis of every team’s body of work. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Selection Committee member Mike O’Brien about the new NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) and the importance of scheduling.

How many hours/day will you be working on selection stuff next week? The committee will convene in New York City on Tuesday. There is no specific # of hours involved but the selection process will take up the entire week. I will tell you that the Committee and NCAA staff truly work together throughout the many months leading up to the tournament. It is an incredibly committed group.

Which primary conferences are you assigned to this year, and how much weight do you give to input from the representatives of those conferences? My primary conferences are the Ivy League/Mountain West/Patriot League. I count on the reps from those conferences to provide us with any data that we might not ordinarily see (injuries/suspensions/etc.). The conferences have really done a nice job going above and beyond to assist us.

I know that you are not allowed to vote for teams from your own conference, but as someone whose school has faced Buffalo twice since New Year’s Day, what makes the Bulls such a great team? They are very experienced, having been in the NCAA tourney last year. They are athletic and are great in transition. They play nice half-court defense and are having a terrific season. Additionally, being in the top-25 for several weeks has been a positive for the MAC: our league is as good as it has ever been (#8 out of 32 in the nation) and having a top-25 team has given us our league some well-deserved publicity.

Your Rockets are wrapping up their 8th straight season with a winning record: how proud are you of everything that Coach Tod Kowalczyk has accomplished? I am really proud of what Tod has done in creating a program: not only the competition piece but academically as well. We have 66 MAC wins in the past 5 years, which is #2 in the league. When you look at what he inherited, Tod has done some wonderful things both for the basketball program as well as the university.

What are the major categories that have the biggest impact on a team’s seed (big road win, bad home loss, other), and why are they more important than other categories? You look at all of it. Scheduling is a part of the process: road wins are hard to get (especially in your league) and on the flip side if you have a bad home loss that gets taken into account as well. You cannot pinpoint 1 specific category because there are so many different data points involved.

If a team wants to make the NCAA tourney, are they better off scheduling decent teams who they think they can beat, or great teams who they can only hope to upset, or a nice mix of both, or other? We talk about the “intent to schedule”: you might schedule a team that you expect to have a nice year but it does not always turn out that way. We look at who you played in terms of wins/losses, but also your attempt to schedule good opponents.

Last season the Committee implemented a 4-tier system that emphasizes the location of wins/losses: is there a specific quadrant that you are drawn to the most (lots of Quad 1 wins, an absence of Quad 4 losses, other)? We have a lot of data so we look at all of the quadrants and the various details on the team(s) that are being looked at.

Committee members are able to see many other rankings on the official team sheets (such as BPI/KPI/KenPom) in addition to the traditional ones: how have you made use of these advanced metrics, and do you have a favorite 1? I cannot say that I have a favorite 1. I look at all of them on occasion to see how they compare to 1 another as well as how they compare to the NET. It is interesting to see where specific teams are located within different metrics.

Last August the NCAA announced that the RPI’s role in the selection process would be replaced by the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), which includes metrics such as scoring margin (capped at 10 PPG) and net offensive/defensive efficiency: why should a team like Gonzaga not be rewarded for outscoring its opponents by 25+ PPG? We look at wins/losses and where the games are played. The NET has been a tool that has really assisted our process and the consensus is that it has proven to be better than what we have used in the past.

What role do injuries (such as Justin Robinson)/suspensions (such as Chris Clarke) have on the seeding of a team like Virginia Tech (if any)? We certainly look at those types of things: we want to see if a team was playing at full-strength during their wins/losses.

In February the Committee unveiled its top-16 seeds: what was the reaction like to this year’s unveiling, and what was the most interesting part of this year’s snapshot? I think that it was positive. It reminds people that March Madness is right around the corner and lends some more excitement. The seeding can change so quickly (and always does) but the process was good for the Committee and very detailed.

Posted in Interviews | Tagged Mike O'Brien, Toledo | Comments Off

The Hoops HD Report: March 4th AND Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 1

Posted on March 4, 2019 by David Griggs

We are entering the final week of the regular season for the multi-bid leagues and we run through all of the leagues as we cover last week’s action, and look ahead to the final few games prior to the conference tournaments. The SEC and Big 12 have several teams on the bubble, the Pac Twelve is on the verge of just being a one bid league after Washington’s disastrous loss to Cal, the Big East has a chance (albeit a small one, as Ben Stein would say) of only getting 2 NCAA Tournament bids, the ACC might put as many as three teams on the #1 line, and we also look at Wofford and Buffalo and feel they are in the NCAA tournament no matter what.

From there, we close with our Championship Week Video Notebook as we review the four Atlantic Sun games, and take a look at the opening round games in the Patriot League, Big South, and Horizon League.