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This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to produce what he feels would be his own bracket as of games played through Sunday, February 24. This is not to be confused with what Jon Teitel does each week when he tries to guess the Selection Committee’s actual bracket. (CLICK HERE to view Teitel’s latest bracket projection.) Without further ado, here is the bracket:
First Four Out: Minnesota, Seton Hall, Utah State, Clemson
Next Four Out*: Alabama, Butler, Furman, Georgetown
Others Considered: Georgetown, South Carolina, Fresno State, Saint Mary’s, Dayton, San Francisco
(Footnote: #StupidStalica would actually have UNC-Greensboro in the First Four Out if this were a conventional bracket.)
JOHN’S NOTES:
-Before I begin, let me offer a brief disclaimer – two weeks ago, the Puppet took the unusual action of adding a non-D1 team to the bracket because he didn’t like the teams on the bubble that week. Last week, Chad actually bracketed a field of 64 in protest of the teams on the bubble.
-I will be bracketing a 68-team field, but my twist is that I am going to assume a little chaos happens during Championship Week. I am going to assume that there are four bid thieves (this is NOT what I ultimately think will happen) – this means that these are teams that would end up winning an auto bid but are not worthy of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. The reason I do this is to demonstrate just how fragile the bubble is right now and to demonstrate what could happen if and when bids are stolen during Championship Week. They are:
- Murray State wins the OVC (note that Belmont is listed as an at-large)
- UNC-Greensboro wins the SoCon (Wofford gets in as an at-large)
- Davidson wins the A-10 (VCU gets in as an at-large)
- Oregon State wins the Pac-12 (Washington and Arizona State get in as an at-large)
-Out of the protected seeds, I still expect Tennessee to be my most controversial pick at #8 overall. While they have beaten teams that they should have beaten for the most part, they don’t quite have the volume of solid wins that teams like Michigan State, North Carolina and Michigan have right now. They missed a golden opportunity to win at LSU on Saturday with Tremont Waters out of the Tigers’ lineup.
-Villanova is slipping like a stone right now – they went 0-3 on their last road swing. A road loss at St. John’s could have been excused, but they will be penalized for losing at Georgetown and Xavier since they are both NIT-caliber teams at the moment. Their loss at Penn is also looking more and more like an anchor by the day.
-In a vacuum, teams like Wofford and Belmont would be lower on the bracket if they were to lose in their conference tournaments. But as it is right now, I like both teams enough that I would have them above teams on the 9-line, 10-line and below. If Wofford wins out and ends up winning the SoCon Tournament, I think they have a ceiling of a 7 seed.
-If you look at the teams I have listed as First Four out, they would be in the bracket if chalk held in the four conference tournaments that I listed above.
-Protected seeds would be protected against potentially playing Yale in Hartford. Drake cannot play in Des Moines since they are the host institution for the first and second rounds. Likewise, Ohio State cannot play first and second-round games in Columbus, and it is worth noting that Georgetown would not be allowed to play in the East region should they end up stealing a bid out of the Big East. (South Carolina couldn’t play in Columbia either, but if they stole a bid, they would not be in the 8/9 slots that would likely take place in the Columbia sub-regionals.)
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I do not agree at all with Kansas as a protected seed. I know the real committee might give them a protected seed. I know their resume is spectacular. But, they have not been spectacular since losing Azebuike, and they still only have two true road wins on the season. I believe that would be a historic low for a protected seed. When you look at a team like Florida State, I think they’ve certainly done more than Kansas has without Azebuike, and that they’d beat Kansas if they were to play them on a neutral floor.
-Seton Hall is not in John’s field. Although there are certainly reasons to leave them out, I also think there are more reasons to put them in with wins away from home against teams like Kentucky and Maryland. I certainly like them more than Auburn, who for some reason is on Stalica’s #10 line. Which raises the question…WHAT THE HELL WAS STALICA DRINKING THIS MORNING!!??
-Other than that, I don’t have a whole lot of complaints. Kentucky makes sense as the 4th #1 seed when you look at their overall resume. They don’t have a true road win against a protected seed, but they have beaten North Carolina on a neutral floor, and also have a win at Louisville, which is pretty damn good.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I think we should let John do the Bracket two out of every three weeks and stop getting them from David. Honestly, I have almost no serious complaints whatsoever about this field. I do like Kansas still on the 4 line and would note that David’s complaints are just flat out wrong.
– I do think Belmont is over-rated on the 9 line and Oregon State underrated on the 13 line, although that is in part because when I look at the way John placed those teams in the field, I cannot help but assume that Belmont suffers at least one more loss (in the OVC Tournament) and that Oregon State has 1-2 more good wins (in the Pac-12 Tournament over Washington and/or Arizona State).
– I agree with David that Seton Hall is in right now, but I would have them just barely avoiding the First Four, and given that John assumed four bid thieves, I could see the Pirate just missing out.
– If I was to assume that John’s top four teams out were all in (i.e. that there were no bid thieves) I would NOT agree with UNC-Greensboro being in and would have any of the next four teams in above them. My choice from that list, for the moment, would actually be Butler, but it is very close. Actually, I kind of wonder how Greensboro can both be in John;s First Four out and in as an auto-bid winner at the same time. He must really like them to have considered the Spartans for two spots in the field.
