Hoops HD Bracket Projections (from The Puppet): December 17th

Let me explain what it is you’re looking at.  This is a CHECKPOINT on CURRENT MERIT.  It is not a prediction of where I think the teams will be in March, nor is it necessarily a ranking of how good I think the teams currently are.  I’m basically just asking the question how hard would it be for an average team to win the games that these teams have played, and then ranking them based on how they’ve done.  This is also what I think the bracket SHOULD look like, not what I think it WILL look like, so if you want a forecast of March, then this is not for you.

OTHERS CONSIDERED:  Colorado, Georgetown, Butler, Murray State, Toledo, Iowa State, Maryland, UCLA, Davidson, Creighton, Wofford, Washington, Alabama, North Texas, San Francisco, UCF, Vanderbilt, Kent State, Fresno State, Ole Miss, San Diego, Liberty, Texas State

NOTES ON THE BRACKET

-We are still splitting hairs.  The more the season plays out, the more defined things will become, but for now there are teams that are in the top half of the bracket that could arguably be left out altogether, and vice versa.

-I still have Gonzaga on the #1 line despite two straight losses.  The reasons are this: They lost to Tennessee on a neutral floor, who is on the #1 line, and to North Carolina in a true road game, who is on the #2 line and who is unbeaten at home.  Those are not damaging losses.  Duke has not won any games that are as difficult as those two are to win.  Not to mention, Gonzaga beat Duke on a neutral floor.  I know that the human polls will rank Duke higher because the biggest thing they look at is how recently a team lost.  That isn’t how the committee looks at it, though.

-Buffalo is not a protected seed.  The reason for that is because their big win at West Virginia suddenly isn’t looking as big as it did at the time.  They’re a good team.  They also have wins at Southern Illinois and on a neutral floor against San Francisco.  Those aren’t protected seed caliber wins, though, and those wins aren’t as good as the ones that the teams who we do have as protected seeds have.

-I love what Belmont has done this year, and they are now the only team with a win at UCLA.  They are also the only team that has won at Lipscomb.  I don’t think they’ll end up anywhere close to the #5 line because they don’t have the opportunities at the kinds of wins that they’ll need to stay there, but for now I think that’s where they belong in terms of the merit of their resume.

-As bad as the Atlantic Ten has been, VCU and Saint Louis seem to have enough on their resumes to land them inside the bubble at the moment.

Posted in Bracketology, News and Notes | Comments Off on Hoops HD Bracket Projections (from The Puppet): December 17th

Under The Radar Game of the Day: Northern Colorado at New Mexico State

For tonight’s News, Notes and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE

Northern Colorado (6-2, 4-2 D1) at New Mexico State (7-2, 5-2 D1) – 9:00 PM EST (WAC Digital Network)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day is a nonbracketed game that is part of the Las Vegas Classic featuring the Northern Colorado Bears (for the lower bracket) and the New Mexico State Aggies (for the main bracket). The Bears are a respectable 3-2 in true road games this season, even with a weekend loss at San Diego. They also have a pair of wins under their belts against Front Range rivals Denver and Wyoming. Jordan Davis leads the Bears with 24.4 points a game and 4.9 assists per game (although 4.6 turnovers a game may be the only negative).

While New Mexico State has been tearing through the UTR portion of their schedule along with sweeps of rivals UTEP and New Mexico, their most recent outing was a near-upset at the Sprint Center in Kansas City where they fell to Kansas 63-60. Three players average double figures in points for the Aggies – they are led by AJ Harris (12.0 PPG) and Ivan Aurrecoechea’s 11.9 PPG and 5.4 rebounds a game).

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Under The Radar Game of the Day: Northern Colorado at New Mexico State

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Dec 17th

NEWS AND NOTES

-Houston came from behind, again, to get another win against Saint Louis.  SLU could have really used this win.  In one sense the loss doesn’t hurt because losing at Houston won’t set a team back all that much.  In another sense, SLU needs to do more than just hold serve, and this was the kind of game that could have really pushed them forward.  Their opportunities at notable wins are limited, so the ice they are skating on is pretty thin.

-West Virginia fell at Rhode Island, and didn’t look all that strong or competitive.  I’m now thinking that West Virginia is not as good as we thought.  Having said that, it was a nice win for Rhody that could help get their season turned around.

-Tulsa is now 9-3 on the year with some fairly decent wins on their resume after their win against Dayton.  They still have a ways to go, but the road to the NCAA Tournament is at least open for them if they can have a big year in conference play.

-TCU’s resume still needs some improvement, but I now think their team is just fine.  They crushed a decent Indiana State team yesterday to win their fifth game in a row, and will get the chances at the kinds of wins they need.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-ARIZONA STATE AT VANDERBILT.  Arizona State had to come from behind to eek out a win against Georgia a couple days ago.  They should get an even bigger test tonight.  Vandy is doing better than expected considering the injuries that they’ve sustained.  This win would look great on their resume, but pulling it off is easier said than done.

-DAVIDSON AT WAKE FOREST.  Davidson is coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss against Temple that they really could have used.  They have a chance to rebound against what appears to be a weak Wake Forest team, but it’s still a road win for their resume.

-NORTHERN COLORADO AT NEW MEXICO STATE.  This is a really interesting UTR game between what has looked to be the best team in the Big Sky and a New Mexico State team who took Kansas to the wall just last week.  Don’t be surprised if we see both these teams in the bracket this March.

-SEMO @ Florida State
-Houston Baptist @ Samford
-Covenant (nondiv1) @ Lipscomb
-Gardner Webb @ Georgia Tech
-Chicago State @ Northwestern
-Pepperdine @ Oregon State

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Dec 17th

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Dec 16th

-All Saturdays are busy Saturdays during the college basketball season, and yesterday was no exception.  We run through all of the action below and take a look at today’s notable games…

NEWS AND NOTES

-For John Stalica’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Villanova went into Kansas, and although they didn’t get the win it was perhaps one of their most impressive showings of the season.  They went through stretches where they didn’t shoot the ball very well, but still kept themselves in the game and made key plays in a very hostile environment.  The Jayhawks remain unbeaten and will almost certainly hold on to the top ranking.  If anything that margin is widening.

-Tennessee sprinted ahead of Memphis in the renewal of that rivalry, and never really looked back.  The Vols are on a current pace to end up as a #1 seed, but we have a long way to go.

-North Carolina jumped ahead of Gonzaga by double digits and maintained that margin for pretty much the entire game.  It was the second loss in a row for the Zags, but on paper losing at North Carolina isn’t much of a setback, especially when you consider the Zags aren’t quite at full strength yet.  It was perhaps the best the Tarheels have looked this up to this point.

-Belmont is a team we’ve been HUGE on this year, and they did us proud yesterday by winning at UCLA.  It was the first home loss for the Bruins of UCLA, and it was the fourth road win for the Bruins of Belmont, who are now 8-1 overall on the year.

-Notre Dame looked really impressive with Purdue, and I will now acknowledge that the Irish are much better than I thought they were, and Purdue is nowhere near as good as I though they were.  At least not yesterday.

-Indiana has now won four straight games by three points or less.  After trailing Butler the entire game, the Hoosiers hit a wild 3-point shot at the buzzer to win it in one of the more exciting games of the day.

-South Dakota State, who we thought was good but not as good as Nevada, really hung tough with Nevada on the road.  The Wolfpack only won by 4, but remain unbeaten and on pace to end up with a protected seed.  They will be favored in all remaining games.

-Auburn got a scare from UAB in Birmingham, but managed to pull it out in overtime.  It was a great atmosphere.  The arena was sold out, the tickets were split, and it was a close game all throughout.

-Virginia Tech didn’t have any trouble with a Washington team that’s been hot and cold all year.  Washington probably needed this one more considering they have a smaller margin for error.

-Buffalo beat Southern Illinois for the second time without having to sweat.  They remain unbeaten and will remain high in the rankings.

-Ohio State went through a couple of long stretches where they just couldn’t score, and Bucknell almost knocked them off.  It was a great and unexpected effort from the Bison who are sort of having a rebuilding year, and the Buckeyes were lucky to escape with a win.  If Bucknell plays like that the rest of the way they’ll once again finish at the top of the Patriot League.

-Cincinnati picked up their second loss of the year as Mississippi State knocked them off to improve to 9-1 on the season, and will hold on to their top 20 ranking.

-Arizona State had to come from behind on the road, but they picked up a nice road win at Georgia.  It was Georgia’s first home loss, and Arizona State’s first true road win.

-Syracuse is one of the more schizophrenic teams in college basketball this year.  They now have a road win at Ohio State, and a home loss to Old Dominion.  As for ODU, they are now 8-3 with wins over Syracuse and VCU, so they’re suddenly making more noise than anyone else in C-USA.

-SMU picked up a much needed road win at Georgetown.  Their resume needed stabilizing, and that is the kind of win that can really help.

-NC State is now an impressive 9-1 with a win over Penn State, which is one of the better wins on their resume to date.  They certainly have more chances in the near future.

-College of Charleston picked up a really nice road win at VCU to improve to 9-2 on the year.  If they blow through the rest of their schedule, which is easier said than done, they may end up on the bubble, and perhaps even inside of it.  VCU has won at Texas, played Virginia tough on the road, and lost to Old Dominion and now CofC.  ODU and CofC are good, but they’re the kinds of teams that VCU needs to beat if they want to establish themselves as being worthy of an NCAA bid.

-Davidson blew what appeared to be a comfortable 6 point lead late inn overtime in a loss to Temple.  It was a win that Davidson’s profile really could have used, and that makes Temple’s profile look a lot better.

-We tried to be nice to BYU.  We really tried to like them.  Then they went and lost at UNLV, who is probably nowhere near the NIT, much less the NCAA Tournament.

-Oklahoma is now 9-1 on the year with another notable win on their resume after beating USC rather comfortable.

-Arizona played awful basketball.  It was just bad.  They lost at home to Baylor, and while they are far from dead this is certainly a rather unexpected setback.

-It wasn’t easy, but LSU picked up a nice win against Saint Mary’s.

-The Citadel is now 8-2 on the season.  You read that correctly.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-RHODE ISLAND VS WEST VIRGINIA (Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase).  West Virginia got off to a bit of a sluggish start, but they’ve now won five of their last six and have another very winnable game today.

-DELAWARE AT STONY BROOK.  A very interesting UTR match-up between two teams with really good records, and in the case of Stony Brook they have some really good road wins on their resume as well.

-SAINT LOUIS AT HOUSTON.  Houston is off to an impressive 9-0 start, and is looking to add yet another decent win on their resume.  SLU looks pretty good so far at 7-2, but winning this one on the road would really give their resume a much needed boost.  Their margin for error is a little smaller given how there aren’t many teams in the A10 that will give them chances at quality wins.

-DAYTON VS TULSA (Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase).  Tulsa has racked up a few decent wins and a pretty good 8-3 record, but they still have a lot of work to do.  Dayton is 5-4 on the year with a nice win against Butler, but they perhaps have even more work to do than Tulsa, and fewer chances against quality teams remaining to get it done.

-INDIANA STATE AT TCU.  Indiana State has just two losses, one of which was a close game at Xavier.  If they can some how knock off TCU on the road then we’d have to start thinking of them as being one of the better teams in the Missouri Valley.  TCU comes in at 7-1 and appears to be improving as the season progresses.

-NEBRASKA VS OKLAHOMA STATE (Sioux Falls, SD).  This is a winnable game for Nebraska away from home that they really need to pick up.

 

BUY GAMES

-Maine @ Duquesne
-Fairfield @ Boston College
-Central Connecticut @ Providence
-Troy @ Western Kentucky
-Stetson @ UCF
-Cal State Fullerton @ San Francisco
-Wagner @ Saint John’s
-Green Bay @ Michigan State
-Chattanooga @ Ole Miss

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Dec 16th

Under The Radar Game of the Day: Miami University at Northern Kentucky

For Jon Teitel’s coverage of Georgetown’s game against SMU – CLICK HERE

Mother Miami (6-4, 4-4 D1) at Northern Kentucky (8-3, 6-3 D1) – 7:00 PM (ESPN3)

We at Hoops HD love our mythical conferences, so naturally today’s UTR Game of the Day features a matchup between 2 teams of the Mythical Miami Valley Conference – the Miami RedHawks and the Northern Kentucky Norse. NKU is coming off of its first losing streak of the year with back-to-back losses at UC and a surprising loss at Eastern Kentucky. The Norse are a perfect 6-0 at home, though. Nine players are part of the NKU playing rotation with at least 16 minutes a game; Drew McDonald leads NKU with 18.4 points per game and 9.3 rebounds per game.

For the RedHawks, they are coming in on a 3-game winning streak with wins against Wright State, Purdue-Fort Wayne and non-D1 Wilberforce College. Isaiah Coleman-Lands hit a game-winning 3 at the buzzer that gave Miami a surprising win at Wright State a couple of weeks ago. Nike Sibande leads the RedHawks with 16.9 points per game; Dalonte Brown also averages 15.6 points per game and 6.4 rebounds a game for Miami as well.

 

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Under The Radar Game of the Day: Miami University at Northern Kentucky

Hanging with the Hoyas: Part 4

HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel will spend the upcoming months covering several Georgetown basketball home games, with a very special reward coming in March. 3 down, 5 to go:
Part 1: Central Connecticut State (https://hoopshd.com/2018/11/11/hanging-with-the-hoyas-part-1)
Part 2: Richmond (https://hoopshd.com/2018/11/30/hanging-with-the-hoyas-part-2)
Part 3: Liberty (https://hoopshd.com/2018/12/04/hanging-with-the-hoyas-part-3)
Part 4 was earlier today when SMU visited DC for the schools’ 2nd meeting all-time.

I was going to do a regular article about a regular game but there were so many things going on today that did not make any sense so instead I decided to list every single 1 of them.

The pregame media room meal has been lunch-centric all season but this morning it featured an egg sandwich on a croissant, breakfast potatoes, and even a chocolate chip muffin for dessert: I am certainly not complaining but it should have served as my 1st clue of the weirdness that lay ahead.  There is often a lot of grey clothing in the stands but when a Catholic university hosts a basketball game in mid-December they hand out dark blue holiday-themed t-shirts for the home fans:

Instead of the usual uniforms in white or grey we saw some pretty teal numbers for the home team (modeled here by FR PG James Akinjo):

Jamorko Pickett had 2 double-scoring figure games to start the season and started 8 of Georgetown’s 9 games this year but instead of a teal jersey he was wearing a dark suit and spent all 40 minutes on the bench due to his “coach’s decision”:

Similar to Pickett, SMU’s Nat Dixon scored in double-digits in his season opener and started each of his team’s 1st 8 games, then got demoted to the bench in December and scored exactly 0 PTS in a loss to TCU last week. So what does he do: subs in off the bench and proceeds to make a trio of threes and a runner for 11 PTS in 11 minutes in the 1st half:

Georgetown is not much of a shot-blocking team (0 in the 1st half) yet they were whistled for goaltending on 2 separate shot attempts. Jessie Govan entered the game shooting 58.3 FG%…so naturally he had an underwhelming 3-9 shooting performance in the 1st half (yet was still the Hoyas’ best all-around player with 7 PTS/7 REB):

Akinjo made a pair of nifty layups and has played smart all season but despite committing only 2 fouls combined in his past 2 games he got a talking-to from Coach Patrick Ewing after fouling SR PG Jahmal McMurray on a 3-PT attempt:

Georgetown has held the halftime lead in every single game this year, so of course they trailed 39-34 after 20 minutes. The 2nd half was a battle of the PGs but seniority won out. Akinjo (who turned 18 last month) kept getting to the FT line and making SMU pay when he did (8-8) but McMurray (who will turn 23 next month) made 3 shots from behind the arc and finished the half with 13 PTS/0 turnovers. McMurray kept making clutch shot after clutch shot: he made a pullup 3 to give the Mustangs their 1st double-digit lead of the game at 44-34, then made his final basket of the game on a layup in the final 2 minutes to give his team a 76-71 lead after the Hoyas had cut the margin to 3 PTS. His teammate Ethan Chargois chipped in with 17 PTS and tied a career-high with 3 STL…which is not what I expected after his 4-PT/0-STL performance against TCU last week. The final head-scratcher for Georgetown came in the final 90 seconds: after rebounding a missed 3 by Jarrey Foster and having 3 freshmen on the court (Akinjo/Josh LeBlanc/Mac McClung) I expected Coach Ewing to call a timeout to draw up a play and make it a 1-possession game:

Instead he let them play it out, Govan turned the ball over after getting double-teamed, and SMU made 5 FTs in the final minute to clinch an 81-73 win.

The Hoyas’ season-long trends coming into the game left me even more confused after reviewing the final stats: they had been 6-1 when outrebounding their opponent…strike 1. They were 5-0 when shooting more FTs than their opponent…strike 2. They had been 5-0 at home…strike 3.

Bizarro Day even continued into the postgame press conferences. SMU came out 1st but did not bring McMurray and his game-high 19 PTS. I asked Chargois what had changed from his underwhelming effort against the Horned Frogs: he said that there was no big difference and that “I just made the shots that I had tonight”:

Coach Tim Jankovich also chimed in on that topic a few questions later by stating that Chargois had a season-low 6 FG attempts against TCU and that “the ball just did not come to Ethan that much”:

Georgetown did not send a single player to the press conference but I invited Coach Ewing to explain why McClung had become so aggressive on driving to the hoop the past 4 games (23 FT attempts) after not going to the FT line a single time during the 1st 6 games of the year. He responded that Mac “is an attacking-type player and will start getting calls”:

That’s all for now, check back in the weeks ahead for Part 5.

Posted in CBB | Tagged , | Comments Off on Hanging with the Hoyas: Part 4