The Hoops HD Report: December 10th

Chad, David, and Jon look back at a very busy week of college basketball that saw Tennessee knock off Gonzaga in a classic game, tons of rivalries this past Saturday, and two big wins by Nevada.  We run through all the multi-bid conferences and look at Kentucky’s overtime loss to Seton Hall and talk about how they still don’t have any big wins, how improved Louisville is despite the close loss at Indiana, Kansas is the new overall #1 team despite getting a tough test from New Mexico State, how the teams in the Pac Twelve and Atlantic Ten are continuing to struggle, but that VCU and Saint Louis are finally starting to make cases for themselves.  All that, and much more…

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Puppet’s Bracket Projections: Monday, Dec 10th

Just so everyone knows what they were looking at, this bracket is a CHECKPOINT based mostly on CURRENT MERIT.  It is not a forecast of what I think things will look like in March, nor is it a ranking of how good I think teams actually are.  I’m basically asking myself how difficult is it for an average team to win the games that they’ve played, and then ranking them accordingly.

Things are starting to “normalize” but there is still some stuff in the bracket that is obviously way out of whack.   More on that below…

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Iowa State, UCLA, Davidson, Maryland, Toledo, UCF, Missouri, Oregon State, San Francisco, NC State, Vanderbilt, Liberty, Colorado, Georgetown, Creighton, Northwestern, Kent State, North Texas, Drake, Butler, Ole Miss

 

NOTES ON THE BRACKET:

-Furman has been a great story.  They’re unbeaten, they had two big road wins against Villanova and Loyola Chicago, and they have cracked the top 25 (and deservedly so).  Their seed in this bracket reflects that merit.  I do not actually believe them to be that good.  Other than the win at Villanova, they have not beaten any other teams that have a winning div1 record.  On top of that, they had to sweat out Gardner Webb and Western Carolina at home, and neither of those teams are likely to finish in the top 200.  If you’re asking me to forecast Furman, I don’t even think they’ finish in the top two of the SoCon, much less win it, much less run the table and end up as a protected seed.  But, this bracket is not intended to make any assumptions.  With an unbeaten record and a big win against Nova, you can’t say they don’t belong on the #4 line right now if you’re doing it based only on merit.

-The season is starting to take shape, but a lot of things are still pretty flimsy right now.  A team like Purdue, who is on the #12 line, has had a couple of close losses.  If they win just one or two of those, then they’re probably a protected seed.  With so little data, any one game can have a huge sway on things.  That is another reason that this bracket is not for you if you’re looking for something that accurately measures the overall strength of the teams and not just the current merit.

-I don’t know what to do with Western Kentucky.  They’ve got two really good wins away from home, and a smattering of unimpressive results.  A case could be made that they don’t belong in at all.  A case could also be made that they should be seeded a lot better.

-I’m big on Louisville.  I like their win at Seton Hall, and the home win against Michigan State isn’t bad either.  Their losses to Tennessee (who is a #1 seed) and at Indiana (who is unbeaten at home and also looking pretty good) are hardly damaging.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: Morehead State at Marshall (and other News & Notes)

Morehead State (3-5, 1-5 D1) at Marshall (5-4) – 7:00 PM EST (ESPN+)

Tonight’s UTR Game of the Day actually features the Ellis Johnson traveling trophy featuring a pair of teams separated by 63 miles of Interstate 64 – the Morehead State Eagles and the Marshall Thundering Herd. Morehead actually pulled off an upset against the Herd at home last season with an 86-83 victory. This season, Morehead comes into the game with a 3-game losing streak against D-1 competition (with a field trip win against non-D1 Ohio-Chillicothe sandwiched in between). While Jordan Walker currently leads Morehead with 14 points a game through 8 games, Lamontray Harris is the main leader of this team. He averages 12.6 PPG and 9.9 rebounds a game (and is also on pace to reach the 1,000-point mark later this season).

Marshall also started the season with higher expectations after a season that saw them beat Wichita State in the NCAA Tournament, but the Herd have hit the skids of late with a 3-game losing streak of their own against Ohio, Duquesne and Toledo. Marshall still has a 2-headed offensive monster that includes Jon Elmore (20.3 points a game) and CJ Burks (19.4 points a game), but their defense has allowed a whopping 81 points a game so far this season.

NEWS AND NOTES

-One of the most exciting games of the year yesterday was Tennessee v Gonzaga.  It saw a lead that seesawed back and forth, one of the greatest defensive blocks I have ever seen in my life in any basketball game, big shots, big plays, and a last second shot that would have sent the game to overtime had it gone in.  It was also a huge win by Tennessee.  So far this season, Tennessee has taken Kansas to overtime, and beaten Gonzaga.  They have to be thought of as a #1 seed caliber team and included in that conversation.  They aren’t likely to lose too many the rest of the way.

-Virginia had to sweat a little bit against VCU at home, but ended up pulling it out in the final few minutes.

-Alabama got a really nice home win against Arizona.  They’ve still got a lot of work to do, but this was a big step in the right direction.

-Saint Louis picked up a home win against an Oregon State team with a bloated record, but without any big wins.

-Texas got things turned around after back to back losses with a big home win over Purdue.  Purdue still has some work to do, but they’re a good team and will have the chances they need to land safely inside the bubble come March.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: Coastal Carolina at Wofford

For the Puppet’s News, Notes and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE

Coastal Carolina (5-4, 3-4 D1) at Wofford (7-3, 4-3 D1) – 2:00 PM EST (ESPN+)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day takes us to Spartanburg, South Carolina where the Wofford Terriers will play host to in-state rival Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are on an odd 6-game streak of alternating wins and losses that include a 75-66 home win against Hampton in their last outing. Zac Cuthbertson leads the Chanticleers with over 20 points and 9.9 rebounds per game; Amidou Bamba averages 9.1 PPG and 6.4 RPG for Coastal as well.

Wofford comes into today’s game with 5 wins in their last 6 outings; 2 of those wins include a win at South Carolina and a home win against East Tennessee State in the SoCon opener. Fletcher Magee continues to lead Wofford with 17.7 points a game; he is also shooting a blistering 88.9% from the foul line on 24-of-27 shooting. Cameron Jackson also averages 13.1 points a game and 8.2 rebounds a game for the Terriers as well.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Dec 9th

NEWS AND NOTES

-Like all Saturdays, yesterday was CRAZY!  New Mexico State had one of the more impressive showings of the day despite the loss.  They led Kansas for most of the second half in Kansas City, and had a shot at the buzzer that would have sent the game to overtime, but came up just short.  This is by no means a bad loss for New Mexico State.  Based on how they looked yesterday, and how they’ve looked all year, they certainly seem good enough to blow through the rest of their schedule, and if they do that then they probably won’t need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAAs

-Seton Hall won an overtime thriller against Kentucky, which saw a halfcourt three at the buzzer by Kentucky to send it to overtime.  Despite appearing to have all the momentum, Seton Hall got it done in overtime and picked up a huge win.  Kentucky is still looking for their first really big notable win of the season.

-Marquette knocked off rival Wisconsin in a game that seesawed back and forth and went into overtime.  With wins against Louisville, Kansas State, and Wisconsin, Marquette is putting together quite the resume.  

-K State is NOT putting together quite the resume.  They lost on the road at Tulsa yesterday, and have yet to pick up a road win this season.  Tulsa is now at 7-3, and while all seven wins have come at home you kinda do have to sit up and take notice. 

-Northwestern came form behind to beat crosstown foe DePaul.  It’s a semi decent win for a Northwestern team that nearly beat Michigan, and should be formidable in Big Ten play.

-Oklahoma blew out Wichita State, is 8-1 on the year, and although they haven’t exactly knocked off any likely protected seeds, they still appear to be pretty good.  

-Louisville v Indiana was a thriller with the Cards leading most of the way, but Indiana keeping it close and getting the lead late, and coming out with a big home win for them.  

-Cincinnati won their ninth straight with a decisive win over crosstown rival Xavier.  Cincinnati has been quiet this year, but they’ve won all their games since losing the rock fight opener to Ohio State.  

-Western Kentucky came from behind to pick up a huge road win at Arkansas.  It was the first true road win of the year for WKU, and the fact that they came from behind when things weren’t going well may say something about their mental toughness.

-Syracuse came from 15 down to beat rival Georgetown in another thrilling edition of that rivalry.  It would have been a huge quality win for the Hoyas, not to mention a feelgood win over a rival, had they pulled it off.  Nevertheless, Georgetown appears to be getting better and could be in position to make quite a bit of noise in the Big East for the first time in several years. 

-Army overcame a 13 point loss to come back and beat Air Force!!  I find it strange that they would schedule a basketball game against another service academy at the same time as the Army v Navy football game.  That’s the only reason I mention this.  Why not play this at literally any other time?

-Notre Dame vs UCLA wasn’t always pretty, but it was exciting.  The lead underwent big shifts, but in the end UCLA pulled it out and improved to 7-2 on the year (all seven wins have come at home, so they’ll eventually need to win someplace else).  

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-ARIZONA AT ALABAMA.  Arizona is off to a better than expected start and has a winnable road game today against a decent but not great Alabama team. 

-VCU AT VIRGINIA.  VCU already has a huge road win against Texas, which is important because the Atlantic Ten is struggling and their chances at notable wins will be very limited the rest of the way.  Virginia is looking like a potential #1 seed, so if VCU can some how do the impossible and win today, they’ll be catapulted into national relevance. 

-TENNESSEE VS GONZAGA (Game in Phoenix).  Gonzaga is ranked #1 and on pace to earn a #1 seed with some of the wins they’ve already picked up.  This would certainly be another big one if they’re able to pull it off.  Tennessee is also looking like a protected seed, but up until now they have not picked up any really big wins, although they did take Kansas to overtime.  This would be their first win against a likely protected seed if they’re able to pull it off 

-SAINT LOUIS AT OREGON STATE.  Both teams are off to good starts, and Saint Louis has a couple of really nice wins on their resume, but they still have a somewhat small margin for error.  Oregon State has a good record, and we’re still looking at them as a potential dark horse in the Pac Twelve this year.  This is their first real test of the season, though, so it will be interesting to see how they do.  

-NEVADA VS GRAND CANYON (Game in Phoenix).  Nevada is coming off a real nice win against a previously unbeaten Arizona State team.  Grand Canyon is tough, and this is a great showcase game for them to play in, but they’re probably also a little overmatched.  

-PURDUE AT TEXAS.  Both teams are solid, and both have already picked up some nice wins, but both still have a lot of room to improve and this would be a really nice win for whoever it is that pulls this off.  

-SEATTLE AT WASHINGTON.  This is a regional match-up that is not technically a buy game, but practically is.  Seattle does have a somewhat impressive 9-2 record, so it’ll be interesting to see what they can do against the local heavyweight. 

BUY GAMES

-South Carolina State @ Virginia Tech
-Princeton @ Saint John’s – The Johnnies can remain unbeaten with a win
-Incarnate Word @ LSU
-Coastal Carolina @ Wofford
-Navy @ Lipscomb
-Cal State Northridge @ San Diego
-Samford @ Alabama A&M
-Southern @ Iowa State
-Montana State @ Washington State

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: Montana at UC-Irvine

For David Griggs’ News, Notes and Highlighted Games for Rivalry Saturday – CLICK HERE

Montana (5-2, 4-2 D1) at UC-Irvine (8-2, 7-2 D1) – 10:00 PM EST (BigWest.tv)

Today’s UTR Game of the Day features a pair of teams favored to win their respective conferences – the Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky) and the UC-Irvine Anteaters (Big West). Irvine does have a nice pair of road wins at Texas A&M and Saint Mary’s so far this year, and have only looked bad in one game – a home loss where a surprising Utah State beat the Anteaters by 24 points. Irvine has at least 6 players that average over 8 points a game, but is balanced enough that nobody currently averages double figures in points per game. They make up for that by holding teams to 65 points a game.

Montana’s biggest win to date consists of a home win against Georgia State, and much like UC-Irvine, they’ve had one bad game where they did not look as good in a blowout loss at Creighton. Ahmaad Rorie leads the Grizzlies with 15.9 points per game; Michael Oguine also averages 15 points and 5.7 rebounds for Montana as well.

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