The Hoops HD Report: Preseason Bracket Projections

On the day before the season, Chad unveils what he thinks the NCAA Tournament will look like this March, and the panel discusses each team as they are revealed line by line.  And, there are some pretty crazy projections in his bracket.  See who he thinks the #1 seeds will be, who his surprise teams are, and who he thinks is going to be left out.

And, perhaps most importantly, at the conclusion of the show we select this year’s Team of the People!!!

 

Below is the the bracket, but don’t look at it until you’ve watched the show above!

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Conference Preview: SEC

CLICK HERE for all of Hoops HD’s Preseason Coverage

From 2013-2016 the SEC averaged fewer than four NCAA Tournament bids per season.  For a power conference with 14 members, that was simply unacceptable.  The conference set forth a plan to upgrade its basketball success, and it worked.  Last season, a conference record 8 teams heard their names called on Selection Sunday and equaling or even topping that number could easily happen this year.  Even more than that, however, the conference has at least three teams that enter the year with legitimate shots to play in Minneapolis in April at the Final Four.

Leading the way this season is, of course, Kentucky.  Head coach John Calipari has another group of amazing freshmen, but this year adds in a handful of returning stars (such as Quade Green) and the nation’s highest-profile graduate transfer, Reid Travis from Stanford.  It will not be a cakewalk through the conference for UK, however, with Auburn and Tennessee having teams that look like powerhouses, and programs like Mississippi State and LSU on the rise.  At the bottom of the conference, a pair of intriguing new coaches are beginning rebuilds – Kermit Davis at Ole Miss and Tom Crean at Georgia.

Predicted Order of Finish

  1. Kentucky – Is having another incredible group of freshmen, led by guards Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley and power forward E.J. Montgomery enough? How about getting last year’s top 3-point shooter (Quade Green) and big men PJ Washington and Nick Richards back for another year?  No?  Do you still need more?  Ok, then let’s add in graduate transfer Reid Travis who averaged almost 20 points and 9 rebounds per game last season and would have probably taken Pac-12 Player of the Year had he stayed at Stanford.  There are a few teams in the nation that are loaded with talent this season.  Beyond any of those, you have the Kentucky Wildcats.  This team is a legitimate national title contender and anything short of that may be a disappointment in Lexington.
  2. Auburn – Head coach Bruce Pearl somehow kept off-court issues and suspensions from slowing his team down last season as the Tigers shared the SEC regular season title and won a game in the NCAA Tournament. Although Mustapha Heron and Desean Murray are both gone from that team, the roster is still stacked.  In the backcourt, Jared Harper and Bryce Brown combined to average over 29 points per game, and Brown could be a contender for SEC Player of the Year.  Down low, the only problem may be too many players – returnees Horace Spencer and Chuma Okeke were solid last season, Anfernee McLemore is back healthy, and Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy are now back eligible (though Purifoy must sit out the first nine games).  The  pieces are here to not only put the Tigers back in the SEC title hunt, but to put them in the NCAA title hunt as well.
  3. Tennessee – The Vols may once again be lacking size, at least compared to some of their SEC foes, but that didn’t seem to matter last season when they captured a share of the SEC regular season title and earned a 3-seed in the NCAA. All five starters and most of the key bench players are back from that team, include the frontcourt pairing of Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams, the latter winning SEC Player of the Year last season.  Long story short – head coach Rick Barnes’ team has the talent and experience to contend for another conference title and make a very deep run in March – or even into April in Minneapolis.
  4. Mississippi State – It has been nine years since the Bulldogs last heard their names called on Selection Sunday. That streak will not reach ten as head coach Ben Howland has put together a team that should not only be in the Big Dance but could find itself a protected (top four) seed when it gets there.  The backcourt sees the return of brothers Quinndary and Nick Weatherspoon, both of whom averaged in double figures last season.  The frontcourt is just as tough with big men Aric Holman and Abdul Ado, along with touted recruit Reggie Perry.  There are few, if any, holes in the lineup this season.
  5. Florida – The Gators had trouble keeping players out of the trainer’s room last season. If they can stay healthy this year, despite no longer having Chris Chiozza or Egor Koulechov, they should be able to contend for one of the top spots in the conference standings.  Top scorer Jalen Hudson is back, and highly-touted recruit Andrew Nembhard should be starting from Day One.  Down low, having players like Chase Johnson and Isaiah Stokes back healthy, joining the likes of Keith Stone and Kevarrius Hayes, should give the Gators enough talent and depth to match-up with almost anyone.
  6. LSU – Head coach Will Wade immediately made an impact last season, leading the Bayou Bengals to 18 wins and an NIT appearance. The next step is an NCAA Tournament bid, and with point guard Tremont Waters (15.9 points and 6.0 assists per game last season) ready to lead the way, plus a stellar recruiting class featuring guard Ja’Vonte Smart and big man Naz Reid, there is no reason why that bid will not come this year.
  7. Alabama – The Tide may be without Collin Sexton this season, but six of the team’s top eight scorers are back, led by guards Dazon Ingram and John Petty and forward Donta Hall. One player to keep an eye on will be transfer Tevin Mack who was a legitimate scorer at Texas before being dismissed from the team in the middle of the 2016-17 season.
  8. Arkansas – Four of the Razorbacks’ top five scorers from last year’s NCAA Tournament team are gone, so this may be a rebuilding year in Fayetteville. The one returning top scorer, Daniel Gafford, could have a huge season, as he is a nightly double-double threat down low.  In order to make any serious noise, however, newcomers such as New Mexico transfer Jalen Harris and freshman Keyshawn Embery-Simpson will need to prove they are ready for SEC play from Day One.
  9. Vanderbilt – The Commodores lost 20 games last season and the top three scorers from that team (Jeff Roberson, Riley LaChance and Matthew Fisher-Davis) are gone. All hope is not lost, however, as head coach Bryce Drew welcomes in a very promising group of freshmen led by a pair of McDonald’s All-Americans in point guard Darius Garland and big man Simi Shittu, along with small forward Aaron Nesmith.  Shittu is coming off of an ACL tear and his health may greatly determine his team’s fate.
  10. Missouri – Gone are last year’s top two scorers, Kassius Robertson and Jordan Barnett. Gone also is Michael Porter Jr., who went down with an injury to start the season and, despite coming back late, moved on to the NBA, as expected.  Back was supposed to be Michael’s brother, Jontay, but he suffered a season-ending injury during a preseason scrimmage.  The Tigers could still be back in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid with Jeremiah Tilmon and Kevin Puryear in the frontcourt.  Both players should see significant scoring increases this season.  The backcourt is not empty either, as freshman Torrence Watson comes in as a top shooting guard prospect and has the potential to be a big-time scorer.
  11. Texas A&M – After a Sweet 16 run last season, the Aggies will likely take a step back this season with their entire frontcourt, which was the strength of last season’s team, gone. Guards T.J. Starks and Admon Gilder will look to pick up the scoring load, but a pair of frontcourt transfers – Christian Mekowulu (Tennessee State) and Josh Nebo (St. Francis-PA) will need to prove they can play against SEC-level competition for this team to have any serious success.
  12. Ole Miss – Kermit Davis is the new head coach in Oxford and, although the Rebels finished in last place and lost 20 games overall last season, there is hope for improvement even in Year One. Terence Davis and Breein Tyree were both double-digit scorers in the backcourt last season, and Bruce Stevens scored more than 10 per game from the forward position.  The big question will be how quickly the team buys into Davis’ system – and just how quickly Davis can fix a defense that was, to put in nicely, abysmal last season.
  13. South Carolina – After making it to the Final Four just two seasons ago, the Gamecocks finished tied for 11th place in the conference last year and may struggle to even match that mark this season. The focus for the team will be senior forward Chris Silva, who averaged 14.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game last year.  Silva may not have enough other pieces around him, however, for this team to win very many games in a stacked conference.
  14. Georgia – The Bulldogs welcome in Tom Crean as their new head coach, but he has his work cut out for him this season without a single double-digit scorer back from last year. William “Turtle” Jackson and Rayshaun Hammonds figure to be the two go-to players; however, just avoiding the league cellar might be an accomplishment this year.
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Under the Radar: Season Preview

CLICK HERE for all of Hoops HD’s Preseason Coverage

Chad, David, and John run through all 22 Under the Radar conferences and discuss who we think the favorites are in each league, and which teams we think are good enough to impress the Selection Committee.  Check out our first UTR episode of the season!

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio only version of the show…

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Conference Preview: Pac-12

CLICK HERE for all of Hoops HD’s Preseason Coverage

It is not unusual for a power conference to have a bad season every now and then.  However, calling 2017-18 a bad season for the Pac-12 would be a gross understatement.  At the end of the day, the league only put three teams in the Big Dance (though many felt USC belonged in as a fourth).  Two of those three (UCLA and Arizona State) played and lost First Four games.  The third, Arizona, was upset in the first round by Buffalo.  In other words – 3 bids, 0 wins.  Things will be better this season because, quite frankly, there is almost no way they could be worse.

The pick to win the conference is UCLA, a team stacked with talent despite having lost two of their top players from last season.  The key for the Bruins will be a frontcourt filled with newcomers (and a redshirt freshman) including star recruit Moses Brown.  Oregon should be right there as well with one of the nation’s top frontcourts, while Washington, USC, Arizona State, Arizona and even Colorado could all be in the hunt for a Dance Ticket.  The Arizona Wildcats may be one of the hardest teams to forecast this season, as head coach Sean Miller returns very little from last season, and lost some key recruits following an ESPN report that was never substantiated, but has a history of success that simply cannot be overlooked.

Predicted Order of Finish

  1. UCLA – Although they no longer have Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh, this may be the year that head coach Steve Alford finally breaks through and wins the Pac-12 regular season title. Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands both passed on the NBA to return in the backcourt.  Look for Prince Ali to have a breakout season as well.  Down low, Moses Brown has a chance to be something really special in the middle, while Cody Riley looks for redemption after taking a redshirt last season following a small criminal matter in China.
  2. Oregon – Despite missing the NCAA Tournament last season and losing three double-digit scorers from that squad, the Ducks should be back with a vengeance this season. Oregon has one of the strongest looking frontcourts not only in the Pac-12, but in the entire nation.  Kenny Wooten was the conference’s leading shot blocker in his freshman year last season, and he is joined by a pair of players who should contend for conference Freshman of the Year – Manute Bol’s son, Bol Bol (7-2 with a mid-range jump shot) and Louis King.  In the backcourt, Payton Pritchard made more 3’s than any returning Pac-12 player and will get help from the likes of Victor Bailey and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi transfer Ehab Amin, the nation’s leader in steals two years ago.
  3. Washington – To say that Mike Hopkins did a great job in his first season in Seattle would be an understatement. The Huskies, who were supposed to be in rebuild mode, won 21 games and finished with a winning conference record.  More importantly, the team went from one of the worst defenses in the league to one of the better ones.  This year – with the majority of last season’s squad back including leading scorer Jaylen Nowell and big man Noah Dickerson – it would not be a shock at all to see UW in the battle for the conference title and celebrating their selection to the NCAA Tournament in March.
  4. USC – The Trojans had 23 wins and an RPI of 34 on Selection Sunday when the committee left them out last March. One piece of good news is that the RPI is gone, replaced with the new NET ranking system.  The other piece of good news is that this team may be even better than last year’s even without Chimezie Metu and Jordan McLaughlin.  The key will be heralded recruit Kevin Porter Jr who may prove to be a big-time scorer…and if so will likely be in the pros next season.  The frontcourt will be a strength for this team with Bennie Boatwright back healthy, Nick Rakocevic returning as a nightly double-double threat, and Charles O’Bannon Jr in position to have a breakout season.
  5. Arizona State – The Sun Devils lost their top three scorers, all guards, from a team that barely squeezed into the First Four in the NCAA Tournament last season. Despite that, they could actually be better this year with a completely reloaded backcourt.  Pac-12 co-Sixth Man of the Year Remy Martin will be joined by Cleveland State transfer Rob Edwards (who led his former team in scoring both seasons he was there) and highly regarded freshman Luguentz Dort.  The frontcourt should be better with experience gained, led by sophomore Romello White (a double-double threat) and De’Quon Lake.  Of course, there is also head coach Bobby Hurley, who will almost definitely have a couple of sideline blow-ups and ejections that will be worth watching many times over.
  6. Arizona – The Wildcats lost the top five players from last season’s team that flamed out in the first round against Buffalo. There are, however, enough pieces here to at least contend for an NCAA bid, led by freshman guard Brandon Williams and a pair of transfers – guard Justin Coleman (Samford) and forward Ryan Luther (Pittsburgh).
  7. Colorado – The Buffaloes return three sophomore starters from last season’s team that failed to qualify for postseason play after finishing 17-15 overall. The good news is that one of those starters is McKinley Wright IV, the point guard who averaged over 14 points and 5 assists per game last season.  As he continues to improve, and players like Tyler Bey improve, this young team could make some noise this season, and be very dangerous by next.
  8. Utah – The Utes only return one double-digit scorer (Sedrick Barefield) from last season’s team that missed the NCAAs but did make a run to the NIT Championship game. This season, they will need a pair of transfers — reigning Junior College D-1 Player of the Year Charles Jones Jr and 7-0 Novak Topalovic (Idaho State) — to prove they can contribute significantly at this level if they want to even sniff a dance ticket.
  9. Oregon State – The Beavers have a pair of high scorers returning in guard Stephen Thompson (15.8 points per game) and forward Tres Tinkle (17.6 points per game).  However, even with both of them and the departed Drew Eubanks (13.2 points per game), they only managed a .500 overall record last season.  There are some huge questions at the point guard position, which might have to end up being manned by Stephen Thompson, and while the team has size down low, they do not have much experience there beyond Tinkle.  Things could click like they did three years ago and this team could contend for a dance ticket, but the Beavers will more likely spend the season hovering around the .500 mark again.
  10. Stanford – This should have been the year for the Cardinal to dance, but star Reid Travis decided to transfer to Kentucky and likely took those hopes with him. A pair of sophomores, Daejon Davis and KZ Okpala, should both shine and, given their youth and the addition of a solid recruiting class, the future is still bright in Stanford.
  11. California – Wyking Jones’ first season as head coach at Cal was a long one, with his team going 8-24 overall and only winning 2 conference games. With two double-digit scorers from that team gone, Coach Jones’ second season could be just as long.  The good news is that the roster is stacked full of freshmen and sophomores, including leading returning scorer Justice Sueing, so the future is still bright even if this season’s prospects are not.
  12. Washington State – Senior forward Robert Franks averaged over 17 points per game last season and could be a contender for Pac-12 Player of the Year this season. Unfortunately for the Cougars and head coach Ernie Kent (who is on the hot seat), there is not much else on the team to help Franks.  Washington State lost 19 times in the 2017-18 season.  2018-19 could be worse.
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Conference Preview: Big Twelve

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The Big 12 belongs to Kansas.  It has belonged to the Jayhawks for the last 14 consecutive seasons, and all signs point to them winning the league title once again.  Bill Self’s team is stacked with talent and, if the newcomers can gel quickly enough with the veterans, this team could be something truly special – special enough to make a trip to Minneapolis in April.  If anyone can dethrone the Jayhawks this season, Bruce Weber’s Kansas State Wildcats appear to be the top contender, although TCU and West Virginia could be in the hunt as well.

The Big 12 should also once again be one of the toughest and deepest conferences in the nation.  All ten members were in the discussion for NCAA Tournament bids last season and it would not be a shock if that happened again this season.  At least six teams from this conference should be dancing in March, and seven or even eight would not be a total shock.

Predicted Order of Finish

  1. Kansas – Who else? The Jayhawks are clearly the best team in one of the best conferences and winning at least share of their 15th straight Big 12 championship seems to be almost a given.  In fact, winning the national championship is within their grasp with returnees such as Lagerald Vick ad Udoka Azubuike, huge transfers such as Dedric Lawson (Memphis), his brother K.J. (Memphis), and Charlie Moore (California).  Oh, and they have three freshmen McDonald’s All-Americans led by likely one-and-done Quentin Grimes.  The Jayhawks are simply stacked, top to bottom.
  2. Kansas State – If there is any possibility that Kansas does not win the Big 12 again this season it will be because their in-state rivals from Kansas State stole the crown. The Wildcats return virtually every significant player from a team that won 25 games and made the Elite Eight, led by guard Barry Brown Jr. and forwards Dean Wade and Xavier Sneed.
  3. TCU – Rumor has it that students at the University of Pittsburgh are trying to invent a time machine for the sole purpose of undoing Jamie Dixon’s termination there. Dixon has been amazing, to say the least, at TCU, guiding a perennial doormat program to an NIT championship and an NCAA berth – and an upper division finish in the conference and return to the Big Dance this season appear likely.  They key may once again be Jaylen Fisher.  After going down with an injury mid-season, the then 13-4 Horned Frogs finished the year only 8-8.  He is healthy again and ready to help lead his school to their first back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances more than 65 years!
  4. West Virginia – The Mountaineers should be fine down low again this season with Esa Ahmad and Sagaba Konate leading the way. The problem is the backcourt, as two players who combined for over 30 points and 10 assists per game are gone – Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles.  Players like James Bolden will have to step up big this year if the team wants to press for one of the league’s top spots.
  5. Texas – Making up for the loss of Mo Bamba will not be easy, but the Longhorns should once again be right in contention for an NCAA Tournament berth with their other four starters all returning. The key will be getting scoring from the backcourt and getting better from beyond the arc.  Senior guard Kerwin Roach needs to have a big year and guys like Dylan Osetkowski and Jericho Sims need to help make up for the loss of Bamba.
  6. Iowa State – The Cyclones were hit hard by injuries last season and ended up losing 18 games. With four starters back, including the Big 12’s leading returning scorer Lindell Wigginton, and the addition of Virginia transfer Marial Shayok, all signs point to an improved team in Ames this season that should contend for a tourney berth.
  7. Texas Tech – Chris Beard has done an amazing job so far in Lubbock but, with six of the top eight scorers from last year’s Elite Eight team gone, this team should take a step back this season. They do welcome South Dakota graduate transfer Matt Mooney, who averaged over 18 points per game last season, as well as a deep and talented group of freshmen that could at least have the Red Raiders challenging for a dance ticket this year.
  8. Oklahoma – Trae Young and his constant on-screen stat-tracker are gone, but the Sooners do return three starters and a total of six seniors. They also welcome in a couple strong transfers including Aaron Calixte who averaged almost 17 points per game for Maine.  There should be enough here to challenge for a tournament bid, especially if they can avoid having another horrific (4-12 in the final 16 games) end to the season like they did last year.
  9. Baylor – The Bears missed the Big Dance last season, and then lost their top four scorers from that team in the offseason. This definitely looks like a rebuilding year, although a pair of transfers are intriguing – Mario Kegler (Mississippi State) and Makai Mason (Yale).  Mason has only played one game the past two seasons due to injuries and needs to stay on the court this season.
  10. Oklahoma State – The Cowboys were a surprise last year when they won 21 games, but with only one starter returning, this looks like a rebuilding season. Newcomer Michael Weathers, a transfer from Miami (Ohio) where he was MAC Freshman of the Year two seasons ago, could have been a big piece for the Cowboys, but he is presently suspended indefinitely following criminal charges.
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Season preview: HoopsHD interviews CSUN assistant coach Mo Williams

CLICK HERE for all of Hoops HD’s Preseason Coverage

We continue (and perhaps conclude, depending on whether a couple of people respond later this week!) our season preview coverage with CSUN assistant coach Mo Williams. There are plenty of current D-1 head coaches who had successful NBA careers (Patrick Ewing, Chris Mullin, Penny Hardaway, etc.), but Coach Williams is 1 of the few D-1 assistants in the country with an NBA championship on his resume. In addition to winning a title with Cleveland in 2016, he was an All-Star in 2009 and remains 1 of the best FT shooters in NBA history. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Coach Williams about being a former player for his current boss and scoring 52 PTS in an NBA game.

In the 2001 McDonald’s All-American Game you scored 7 PTS for the East in a 6-PT loss to the West: which of your fellow honorees impressed you the most (Tyson Chandler/TJ Ford/David Lee/other)? We had a really good class. I have been good friends with TJ for a long time but the 1 guy who impressed everyone was Dajuan Wagner: he had scored 100 PTS in a high school game and had about 100 friends/relatives in the crowd.

You played for Coach Mark Gottfried at Alabama: what was it like to play for him, and what is it like to work for him almost 2 decades later? Our relationship is very strong: he started recruiting me when I was just 14-15 years old. We have formed a bond of friendship that has carried over to working on his staff: it has been remarkable for me because I have learned from him at every level.

In 2002 you started all 35 games at PG, averaged 10.4 PPG, and were named SEC ROY: how were you able to come in and contribute right from the start? I worked my behind off to put myself in a position to play. They agreed to give me the ball even though we had a lot of juniors/seniors on the team (such as Erwin Dudley/Rod Grizzard). It gave me a lot of confidence to see that the staff believed in me.

In 2009 as a member of the Cavaliers you were named an NBA All-Star: what did it mean to you to receive such an outstanding honor? Personally it meant a lot but I did not really care about it until my name was actually called. After that I started to appreciate it and understood that only a select few guys get to play in that game every winter. It was a testament to what kind of season my team and I were having. I took full advantage of it and took it all in: it was like Christmas! I went to everything they had and tried to get into as many events as I could: I enjoyed every minute of it.

In January 2015 as a player for Minnesota you scored a franchise-record 52 PTS/19-33 FG in an 8–PT win over Indiana: was it just 1 of those scenarios where every shot you put up seemed to go in because you were “in the zone”? It was 1 of those days where I did not really warm up before the game. I did not have the energy and did not feel like playing…but after making a couple of plays I had about 15 PTS at halftime. I came out in the 3rd quarter and just exploded with 28 PTS, and since it was a close game my competitive juices started flowing. We were on a 15-game losing streak at the time so it was real sweet to finally get a win.

In the 2016 NBA Finals with Cleveland, you become the 1st team in NBA history to win a title after being down 3-1 to Golden State: how were you able to win 3 in a row against the budding Warriors dynasty, and what did it mean to you to win a title? We just played our behinds off and took it 1 game at a time. I know it is a cliché but we really did: once you get to Game 7 anything can happen. There were a lot of stressful days because Golden State is such a good team but it showed who we were as a team and how together we were as a unit. When you are facing adversity the only factor that can turn things around is togetherness. I do not think that winning 3 games in a row when you are down 3-1 in the Finals will ever be done again.

Your 87.1 career FT% still remains in the top-30 all-time: what is the secret to making FTs? Concentration, repetition, and shooting it off your fingertips the same way every single time.

Last year PG Terrell Gomez was named conference ROY: as someone who played 13 years in the NBA as a 6’1” PG, how impressed are you to see someone succeed in college as a 5’8” PG? He shoots the ball at a high clip and does not miss very often. It allows him to stretch the floor and he is quicker than 99% of his opponents so he can use his height to an advantage.

Your non-conference schedule includes a game against Washington State: how do you prepare to face a team from a power conference? We have New Mexico on opening night so we are focused on them right now: they were 3rd in their conference last year. We are fortunate enough that those teams might overlook us so we will try to jump on them early and not look back.

What are your goals for the upcoming season, and what are your expectations for the upcoming season? We want to get better every single day: we are a young team with 8 freshmen but we are still good enough to win some games.

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