NCAA Tournament: First Round Review and Preview – Friday, March 16th

There were not too many surprises overall in terms of seed line upsets, but nonetheless the tournament did start off with a bang thanks to a buzzer-beater by Loyola against Chicago in the afternoon set of games. The Ramblers will play a Tennessee team that had little difficulty in beating Wright State.

Gonzaga also had to sweat out a comeback bid by UNC-Greensboro and were actually down a bucket with a minute to play, but after a made bucket and a 3-point shot that put the Zags up for good, they were finally able to put the Spartans away with stifling defense in the final minute. Gonzaga will play Ohio State – the Buckeyes did withstand a great performance from SDSU’s Mike Daum.

Kansas took a while to warm up against Penn – they were actually down 21-11 midway through the first half against the Quakers before eventually going on a 17-point swing to take a 7-point lead at halftime and gradually put away Penn in the 2nd half. They will play Seton Hall – the Pirates led for virtually the entire game and won their first NCAA Tournament game in 14 years.

The games actually tipped off with a nice game between Oklahoma and Rhode Island – they ended up going to overtime before Rhody ultimately pulled away for an 83-78 victory. They will play a Duke team that had no difficulty beating Iona in their opener.

In the evening session, Kentucky failed to hit a 3-pointer for the entire game (for the first time since the late 1980s), but nonetheless held off Davidson in a game that was uncomfortably close for much of the 2nd half. They will play a Buffalo team that had a surprisingly easy blowout win in the nightcap against Arizona. That loss completely knocks the Pac-12 out of the NCAA Tournament picture this year.

Villanova demolished Radford in their opener in Pittsburgh and will play Alabama in Round 2. Collin Sexton had 21 of his 24 points in the 2nd half to lead the Crimson Tide over Virginia Tech despite trailing at halftime.

Houston looked like they might breeze past San Diego State in their opener, but the Aztecs hung around and were able to tie the game in the final minute. Unfortunately for SDSU, Rob Gray drove down the lane for a game-winning layup with a second to play to give Houston the lead for good. The Aztecs did actually get a decent look at a 3 on the ensuing inbound pass, but their shot went wide and Houston won their first NCAA Tournament game since 1984. They will play Michigan on Saturday – the Wolverines also beat Montana fairly comfortably.

SFA also looked like they might be a giant killer again after leading Texas Tech for a good portion of their game, but the Red Raiders clamped down defensively and won by a deceptive 70-60 score in their opener. Florida ended up pulling away from St. Bonaventure in the 2nd half and beat the Bonnies by 15 points in the nightcap.

CHARLOTTE

(10) PROVIDENCE VS. (7) TEXAS A&M (12:15 PM, CBS) – The Friars come into this game hot off of a pair of overtime wins in the Big East Tournament, including a win over Xavier and an overtime loss to Providence in the Big East Championship. A&M was one and done after a buzzer-beater loss in their SEC Tournament opener against Alabama. Little fun fact – former President George H.W. Bush is going homer in his NCAA Tournament bracket and going with TAMU to win the whole thing.

(15) LIPSCOMB VS. (2) NORTH CAROLINA (approx. 2:45 PM, CBS) – The Bison are making their NCAA D-I Tournament debut after winning a thrilling Atlantic Sun championship game at Florida Gulf Coast. They nearly blew a 35-point lead in the process, but nonetheless find themselves in Charlotte today against a North Carolina team that is almost always a sure bet to win their first round tournament game. Carolina ultimately lost out on the #1 seed in the West region to Xavier, but the Tar Heels are favored by most brackets to actually win the West.

(9) KANSAS STATE VS. (8) CREIGHTON (6:50 PM, TNT) – One-time KSU player Marcus Foster will be one storyline to follow in tonight’s opener at Charlotte; both teams have quietly put together solid but not spectacular seasons in their respective conferences. The Bluejays are coming off consecutive losses to Marquette and an OT loss to Providence; but K-State did manage one win against TCU in the Big 12 Tournament before falling to Kansas in the semifinals.

(16) MARYLAND-BALTIMORE COUNTY VS. (1) VIRGNIA (approx. 9:20 PM, TNT) – UMBC hit a game-winning 3-pointer to end a 23-game losing streak against Vermont and win the America East title; even with Virginia down an injured player, they are fresh off a double in the ACC regular season/conference tournament and are still favorites in many eyes to win the NCAA Tournament this season.

DETROIT

(15) CAL STATE-FULLERTON VS. (2) PURDUE (12:40 PM, TruTV) – The Titans won the Big West title with wins over UC-Davis and UC-Irvine in the process. Purdue lost in the Big 10 title game to Michigan, but in a rare twist of fate have had more time to rest for the NCAAs than Fullerton due to the timing of both conference tournaments.

(10) BUTLER VS. (7) ARKANSAS (approx. 3:10 PM, TruTV) – Butler had a couple of keystone wins earlier in the season with a win at home against Villanova and a win against Ohio State in the PK80 Invitational back in November. Arkansas has more of a recency factor with a home win against Auburn and against Florida in the SEC Tournament (as well as a win against Tennessee back in January).

(14) BUCKNELL VS. (3) MICHIGAN STATE (7:10 PM, CBS) – Bucknell does have a history of pulling a couple of 1st-round NCAA Tournament upsets (ask Kansas and Memphis), but are going to be at a big homecourt disadvantage against Michigan State, however.

(11) SYRACUSE VS. (6) TCU (approx. 9:40 PM, CBS) – History is on Syracuse’s side in one respect – ever since the Field of 68 began in 2011, at least one First Four team has won in the Round of 64. With St. Bonaventure losing last night, it falls upon Syracuse to keep this streak intact. TCU will be making their first appearance in the NCAA Tournament in 20 seasons – that team ultimately fell victim to a Valparaiso team that was the Cinderella of the Ball that year.

SAN DIEGO

(13) MARSHALL VS. (4) WICHITA STATE (1:30 PM, TNT) – This game will be a battle of contrasting styles – Wichita has one of the nation’s best defensive teams, and Marshall is one of the more explosive teams in the country from an offensive standpoint. It may be a quiet crowd early on given the local 10:30 AM tip, but will warm up quickly the longer Marshall is competitive in this one.

(12) MURRAY STATE VS. (5) WEST VIRGINIA (approx. 4:00 PM, TNT) – West Virginia will be matched up for a potential upset special in Round 1 for the 2nd year in a row. On the other side, it seems like we haven’t mentioned Murray State for a while this time of year (at least since Steve Prohm was head coach for the Racers).

(13) CHARLESTON VS. (4) AUBURN (7:27 PM, TruTV) – Injuries have taken quite a bit of wind out of the sails of Auburn – while the Tigers did win a share of the SEC regular-season title, they have lost 4 out of their last 6 games. Charleston themselves has come in on a hot streak after winning the championship in the Colonial, but they had to come back against Northeastern after trailing for almost all of regulation before taking the lead for good in overtime of that game.

(12) NEW MEXICO STATE VS. (5) CLEMSON (approx. 9:57 PM, TruTV) – There is certainly a good chance we could see a 12 v. 13 matchup in Round 2 – NMSU is the more experienced of these two teams if you go by NCAA Tournament experience. Clemson themselves has also had to navigate injury issues for the second half of ACC play, but did they have a respectable showing in the ACC Tournament with a win against Boston College before losing to Virginia in the semifinal round.

NASHVILLE

(15) GEORGIA STATE VS. (2) CINCINNATI (2:00 PM, TBS) – While historical trends suggest this matchup has all the makings of an upset alert, there appears to be very little chance that Cincinnati and their stifling defense will be challenged today.

(10) TEXAS VS. (7) NEVADA (approx. 4:30 PM, TBS) – Nevada looked more dominant in Mountain West play from early January to mid-February, but still appear to be a team that can match up with the Havoc style of pressure that we’re accustomed to seeing from Shaka Smart’s teams at VCU and Texas.

(16) TEXAS SOUTHERN VS. (1) XAVIER (7:20 PM, TBS) – This is the first season Xavier has ever earned a #1 seed – this was mainly by virtue of winning the Big East regular-season title by a full game over Villanova. Texas Southern didn’t win a single non-conference game until their win over NC Central in the First Four, but they won very easily against the Eagles on Wednesday night. Still, the Tigers could make this interesting for a while.

(9) FLORIDA STATE VS. (8) MISSOURI (approx. 9:50 PM, TBS) – Even without Michael Porter for most of the season, Missouri was a pleasant surprise in the SEC this year after a disastrous run under Kim Anderson. They might have some matchup problems against one of the country’s tallest teams in Florida State, but this would appear to be another close 8/9 matchup.

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Under The Radar Update and Coaching News Update – Friday, March 16th

While most of the country was focused on the NCAA Tournament yesterday, we did finally see Georgia fill their head coaching vacancy. Tom Crean will formally be announced as their new head coach later this afternoon. Kermit Davis was also formally named head coach at Ole Miss, although he will finish out his season at Middle Tennessee as the Blue Raiders are still alive in the NIT.

There was one game played in the CIT last night – Austin Peay defeated Louisiana-Monroe 80-66 in the John McLendon Classic to advance to the quarterfinals to the CIT next week. Averyl Ugba led the Governors with 27 points; Terry Taylor also had a double-double with 11 points and 15 rebounds. Austin Peay is now 4-0 all-time at home in postseason play.

CIT (2nd Round)

-CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT WOFFORD (7:00 PM, CBS Digital Network) – The Terriers were a late entry into the CIT field, but are nonetheless worthy of inclusion considering their hot finish in the SoCon and notable win at North Carolina back in December. Central Michigan already has a win in the CIT under their belts thanks to a 5-point win at Fort Wayne back on Monday.

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NCAA Tournament: First Round Preview – Thursday, March 15th

As of today, the first round of the NCAA Tournament begins at 4 different sites – Pittsburgh, Wichita, Dallas and Boise. As they have been for the past 7 years, all the games will be spread throughout CBS, TBS, TNT and TruTV. All games can be viewed HERE at NCAA March Madness.

PITTSBURGH

(10) OKLAHOMA VS (7) RHODE ISLAND (12:15 PM, CBS). The tournament action tips off today with the nation’s most prolific freshman in Trae Young, but they will be stiffly tested against a Rhode Island team that, for most of the season, had a chokehold on their A-10 competition. They finished on a sour note with 2 losses against Davidson and a blowout loss against Saint Joe’s on the way. Oklahoma also struggled mightily down the stretch – they culminated with an opening-round loss against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament.

(15) IONA VS (2) DUKE (approx. 2:45 PM, CBS). Iona has appeared in 3 straight NCAA Tournaments and drew a Duke team that has occasionally slipped up in the first round in recent years. The Gaels are probably way overmatched in this game, however.

(16) RADFORD VS (1) VILLANOVA (6:45 PM, TNT). Radford got their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory in their opening round victory against LIU-Brooklyn, but they will be fighting way out of their weight class against Villanova. However, Villanova did have a slow start in this position last year when they ultimately beat Mount St. Mary’s at this time last year.

(9) ALABAMA VS (8) VIRGINIA TECH (approx. 9:15 PM, TNT). While both teams have scored a few wins against protected seeds this year, Virginia Tech stands out with a win at Virginia and at home against North Carolina. Alabama is also coming off of a recent win in basketball’s Iron Bowl with a surprisingly easy win against Auburn in the SEC Tournament.

DALLAS

(14) WRIGHT STATE VS (3) TENNESSEE (12:40 PM, TruTV). This could be a potential upset with the Raiders’ inside-outside combo of Loudon Love and Grant Benzinger, but they haven’t faced as many teams with the size and defensive intensity that you would expect from a Rick Barnes-coached team so far this season. Even with their loss to Kentucky in the SEC Championship, the Vols come into this game with a share of the SEC regular-season title and a lot of momentum.

(11) LOYOLA-CHICAGO VS (6) MIAMI (approx. 3:10 PM, TruTV). This game has to be one of the most highly-picked upsets in terms of seeding. The Ramblers also sport one of the country’s best defenses and breezed through their title run in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. Miami was a one-and-done in the ACC Tournament after their loss to North Carolina.

(14) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN VS (3) TEXAS TECH (7:27 PM, TruTV). It should be a full house in Dallas tonight with this pair of in-state foes squaring off in Dallas tonight. SFA won three games in the Southland Tournament’s ladder setup, including a win against SE Louisiana in the title game. Texas Tech had a few injury issues towards the end of the regular season, but played a little better in the Big 12 Tournament before ultimately losing to West Virginia in the Big 12 semifinals.

(11) ST. BONAVENTURE VS (6) FLORIDA (approx. 9:57 PM, TruTV). However, I’d argue that the Bonnies will bring the most enthusiastic group of fans to Dallas for this subregional pod after their comeback win against UCLA on Tuesday night in the opening round. They’re going to be playing a Florida team that is among the nation’s most unpredictable teams throughout the season.

BOISE

(13) UNC-GREENSBORO VS (4) GONZAGA (1:30 PM, TNT). It’s a good thing for Gonzaga that they will have a homecourt advantage of sorts with their close proximity to Spokane – this is a potentially scary opener for the Zags against a Greensboro team that is among the top defensive teams in the country. Just ask NC State and East Tennessee State how dangerous the Spartans could be. Still, Gonzaga was rarely challenged in the WCC Tournament where they blew out San Francisco and BYU in the final 2 rounds there.

(12) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE VS (5) OHIO STATE (approx. 4:00 PM, TNT). This is another potential upset special when you consider that the Jackrabbits are the more experienced team in this matchup in terms of NCAA Tournament experience. They have the best player on the floor in Mike Daum, but the Buckeyes have shattered all expectations they have had in Year 1 of the Chris Holtmann era. Will they be rusty or rested for this one?

(12) DAVIDSON VS (5) KENTUCKY (7:10 PM, CBS). This will definitely be a fun matchup to help kick off the evening games with Davidson’s high powered offense and a Kentucky team that got red-hot towards the end of the season, including an SEC Championship that included wins over Alabama and Tennessee.

(13) BUFFALO VS (4) ARIZONA (approx. 9:40 PM, CBS). Buffalo has also become a tournament regular in recent years under Bobby Hurley and Nate Oats, but they are likely overmatched against an Arizona team that had a pair of nice wins against UCLA and USC to win the Pac-12 Championship in Las Vegas last weekend.

WICHITA

(16) PENN VS (1) KANSAS (2:00 PM, TBS). Kansas was a team that struggled in home and quasi-home games earlier in the year, but they are just as hot as any team in the country right now. They’re coming off of a win against West Virginia in the Big 12 Championship while Penn had to come back in the Palestra against Harvard in the Ivy League championship.

(9) NC STATE VS (8) SETON HALL (approx. 4:30 PM, TBS). There is a now-or-never urgency for Seton Hall to win this game given their wealth of experienced seniors who lost in their previous 2 NCAA Tournament appearances to Gonzaga and Arkansas. However, NC State has also shown that they can knock off big boys like Duke and at North Carolina during the regular season. They haven’t always been as consistent against teams the caliber of Seton Hall, though.

(11) SAN DIEGO STATE VS (6) HOUSTON (7:20 PM, TBS). One familiar team is back in the NCAAs – San Diego State finished hot in the Mountain West with home wins against Nevada and Boise State, a blowout against Nevada in the Mountain West semifinals and a win against New Mexico to win the Mountain West title. Houston also established itself as a 3rd superpower in the American – they beat Wichita State twice and were extremely competitive (and perhaps a little unlucky) in their games against Cincinnati.

(14) MONTANA VS (3) MICHIGAN (approx. 9:50 PM, TBS). Today’s nightcap features a Michigan team that looked pretty dominant in the Big 10 Tournament where they beat Nebraska, Michigan State and Purdue along the way. Montana had a tougher time going through the Big Sky Tournament, but ultimately ended up victorious after beating Eastern Washington.

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Under The Radar Postseason News, Notes and Highlighted Games – Thursday, March 15th

While today is the beginning of the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament, there was one rumor that did officially come to fruition yesterday – Tubby Smith and Memphis parted ways after 2 seasons. All indications are that Memphis will pursue Penny Hardaway to be their next head coach, but that is by no means official as of yet.

There are a couple of updates as it relates to the SEC – Thad Matta was a strong possibility to become the next head coach at Georgia, but he has taken himself out of the running for that position, per a report from ESPN. It is also expected that Kermit Davis will move on from Middle Tennessee to Ole Miss, but that likely will not become official as long as MTSU remains alive in the NIT.

And speaking of the NIT, we have an oddity in that all the home teams DID win their openers in the first round. Larry Krystowiak was ejected in Utah’s win over UC-Davis, but the bigger fireworks came down in Baton Rouge where LSU beat Louisiana and actually saw the head coaches having to be separated from one another at the end of the game. LSU head coach Will Wade was not pulling punches in his postgame presser – click here to see how that transpired.

Chalk also held in the opening round of the CIT – Eastern Michigan, UT-San Antonio and Illinois-Chicago all won at home against Niagara, Lamar and St. Francis-PA, respectively. Another strange development is that there are 4 late entries into the field – Wofford, Portland State, Northern Colorado and Sam Houston State will now play 2nd round games against opponents to be determined.

The CBI has not been as hospitable to home teams in their bracket so far. North Texas was the biggest surprise – they won at South Dakota. That was only the 2nd loss at home for the Coyotes all year. Central Arkansas did indeed come up big on the West Coast and ended up beating Seattle 92-90 in overtime (as Jax State also did at Canisius – the Gamecocks also got a 2-point win in overtime). Mercer also made a cross-country trip to win at Grand Canyon. Campbell, New Orleans and San Francisco were the only teams at home to win – they beat Mother Miami, UTRGV and Colgate, respectively.

CIT (John McLendon Classic, CBS Digital Network)

-LOUISIANA-MONROE AT AUSTIN PEAY (8:00 PM).  This is the last game of the first round – it will be streamed on CBS Sports’s website. It will also be the first game Austin Peay has played at home since their roof sprung a leak in their home finale in OVC play.

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Bracketing Analysis 2018

Bracketologists, in addition to picking who they feel will be in and out of the tournament and what their seed will be, often come up with their predictions of how the final bracket will actually be built out.  To do so, we will follow the NCAA’s Principles and Procedures Manual which for the most part tells us how the matchups should be set.  For the third straight season, I have taken the official final seed list and looked at how the bracket was built, and which rules may have been relaxed or outright ignored.

  1. At the very top, North Carolina was 5th overall yet sent to the West Region instead of the East.  On top of that, the #6 team, Duke, was also not sent East, resulting in the Blue Devils going to the Midwest while Purdue went to the East.  Clearly, this year’s committee preferred a “true S-Curve” on the top two lines over keeping these teams in the natural regions.
  2. The top two four seeds were Auburn and Wichita State.  Upon choosing their site for first and second round games, the only two cities left were Boise and San Diego.  Both teams were sent to San Diego despite the difference in miles being fairly insignificant between the two cites, especially for Auburn.  This resulted in San Diego being filled and the final 4 seed, Arizona, being sent to Boise.  I just don’t get this logic — with a simple site flip for either Auburn or Wichita, Arizona could have been kept a lot closer to home.
  3. The Committee ran into a big problem on the 9 line.  With Xavier and Villanova as 1 seeds, the 8/9 games in the East and West regions could not have a Big East team in them.  Creighton and Seton Hall were on the 8 line and therefore went to the South and Midwest.  However, two more Big East teams (Butler and Providence) were slated for the 9 line, making all 4 regions ineligible.  NC State and Florida State should have been 10 seeds, but had to both slide up a seed line to deal with this conflict, while Butler and Providence dropped to 10’s.  This was the proper and only move for the Committee.
  4. Butler and Providence’s placement was strange.  Butler was higher than Providence on the Seed line, and therefore should have been sent to Detroit to play Arkansas, while Providence should have gone to Charlotte to play Texas A&M.  However, the committee flipped these two teams for no known reason.  If the Committee was going to ignore a rule, I would have preferred they ignore the rule against regular season matchups and just sent Providence to Pittsburgh to play Rhode Island!
  5. The “protected seed” rule actually did come into play this year as Lipscomb was the top 15 seed and Nashville was an option.  The Bison got properly sent to Charlotte instead of being allowed to play in their home city.
  6. UMBC was the top 16 seed and should have been sent to Pittsburgh to play Villanova.  Penn would have then gone to Charlotte to take on Virginia and the Radford/LIU Brooklyn winner would have gone to Wichita to play Kansas.  For some reason, the committee moved UMBC to Charlotte, sending Penn out to Wichita and the play-in game winner to Pittsburgh.  This may have been a travel issue, due to the relative short distance from Dayton to Pittsburgh as opposed to Dayton to Wichita.  Otherwise, it once again makes little sense.

All in all, there were very few strange bracketing choices this year compared to past seasons.  The most significant clearly was the decision to do a True S-Curve on the top two seed lines and ignore keeping the 2 seeds in the natural regions.  We will have to see if this continues in future years, but it will be something I likely attempt to do in all bracket predictions next season.

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Basketball and brains: HoopsHD interviews Belmont Academic All-American Dylan Windler

Earlier this month Belmont lost 68-51 to Murray State in the OVC tourney title game, but even though their season has come to a close the awards keep rolling in. On Monday JR wing Dylan Windler was named an Academic All-American. On the court he averaged 17.3 PPG/9.3 RPG for the Bruins: off the court he averaged a 3.84 GPA while majoring in Accounting. Earlier today HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to speak with Dylan about facing Providence/TCU earlier this season and leading the conference in FG%.

You grew up in Indiana: what made you choose the Bruins? They showed a lot of interest in me from the start and came to my high school while I was a sophomore.  It was appealing, especially because other schools were not showing as much interest. Once I got to meet the coaches and get to know my players during my campus visit it seemed like I was able to fit into the direction they wanted the program to go in. It is a great school in the booming city of Nashville where there is a lot of stuff to do.

You play for Coach Rick Byrd: what makes him such a great coach, and what is the most important thing that you have ever learned from him? He does a lot of great things and 1 of the best offensive minds in the nation. He has a great ability to adapt from game to game: it feels like we are running a new offense in every game we play. He gets players started in the system early and by the time we are juniors/seniors it is like 2nd nature to us. He raises us to be good men and sets a good example for us both on/off the court.

You played 32 games as a freshman: how were you able to come in and contribute right from the start? We had a really good team with guys like Evan Bradds/Craig Bradshaw so I just slid into my role as a freshman around all of that great firepower. They lacked a little athleticism on the wing and I just tried to fill the gap with defense/rebounding.

Last month you had 36 PTS/20 REB/14-17 FG in a win over Morehead State: where does that rank among the best all-around games of your career? I would say it is up there: those kind of stats are not easy to get and to do that against a quality team is a big accomplishment.

You finished the year by leading the conference with 55.6 FG%: what is the secret to being a great shooter? Repetition for sure: you have to get a lot of shots up and feel confident with your stroke. Shot selection is also a big part of it: we do not shoot a lot of mid-range shots because Coach Byrd is a big numbers guy and knows that mid-range shots are not the most efficient ones.

In the OVC tourney title game you scored 10 PTS in a loss to Murray State: how did the Racers pull away from you after you build a 5-PT lead early in the 2nd half, and how do you think that they will do against West Virginia on Friday? They are a really good team who got really hot at the end of the season. They have 2-3 really good players like Jonathan Stark/Terrell Miller/Temetrius Morant. The title game was a game of runs but we just did not make enough shots down the stretch. I think that they have a good shot against West Virginia: they are 2 high-caliber teams who have good athleticism inside.

You had road losses to 2 other NCAA tourney teams last November in Providence/TCU: which of those 2 teams impressed you the most? We lost to Providence on a 3-PT buzzer-beater but they are both really good teams. TCU has an all-around good team even with their starting PG hurt. I think that both of them could make a run this month.

Do you consider this season to be a success (due to winning 24 games), or a failure (due to not making the postseason and having to play Georgia yet again), or something else? It is tough to define an entire season but I cannot say it is a failure. It was frustrating to not make the NCAA tourney but we had a really good year so I would call it a success, although it obviously did not end the way that we wanted it to.

Earlier this week you were named 2nd-team Academic All-American: how do you balance your work on the court with your work in the classroom? All student-athletes know how hard it is to find the perfect balance to excel at both aspects at the same time. The key is time management: there are only so many hours in the day.

You have a 3.84 GPA while majoring in Accounting: how did you pick that subject, and what do you hope to do with your degree? I have always been a big math guy dating back to middle school. I later took some finance classes that I liked and met some people who made a good living out of it so that is why I took that route. I am planning to do an internship this summer with PricewaterhouseCoopers for a couple of months, get my CPA after I finish college, and then try to do something in public accounting to get started.

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