Conference tourney previews (Part 2 of 2)

Posted on March 4, 2018 by Jon Teitel

HoopsHD is celebrating the greatest month of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel kicked it off last week with his predictions for the 14 conference tourneys that are already underway (https://hoopshd.com/2018/02/26/conference-tourney-previews-part-1-of-2-3) and now he is ready to announce his picks for the 18 other conference tourneys.

AAC tourney predicted champ: Cincinnati (#1 seed)
Dates: March 8-11
Location: Orlando, FL
Last year’s tourney champ: SMU (#1 seed)
Fun fact: SMU has won 2 of past 3 years
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
SMU has had good success in this tourney…but their 12-3 start this year is a distant memory after losing 12 of their final 16 to finish the regular season. Cincinnati has only 4 losses all season and each 1 was to a team that will make the NCAA tourney (Xavier/Florida in early-December and Houston/Wichita State in mid-February). The Bearcats are 1 of the best defensive teams in the nation and Coach Mick Cronin has a pair of senior big men who can hit the offensive boards in Gary Clark/Kyle Washington. After recording 3 separate winning streaks of 4+ games this year while playing its “home” games out of state all season at the BB&T Arena in Kentucky, this team is well-prepared to go to Orlando and win 3 more games in a row.

ACC tourney predicted champ: Virginia (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-10
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Last year’s tourney champ: Duke (#5 seed)
Fun fact: 6 different champs in past 6 years (after only Duke/North Carolina for previous 7 years)
Seeding: 12 of past 13 champs were top-3 seed
When you have a tourney that offers a double-bye to its best teams, it should come as no surprise that it is usually 1 of the best teams who wins that tourney. Virginia is certainly in the discussion of the best teams in the nation and their defense (52.8 PPG) is certainly good enough to win it all. However, all of this conference’s recent games that have come down to the final seconds (Virginia over Louisville, Miami over North Carolina, Virginia Tech over Duke, etc.) means that anyone is capable of being upset on any given night. Since neither the Blue Devils/Tar Heels were able to beat the Cavaliers this year, I will pick Coach Tony Bennett to leave his heart in Brooklyn. The Hoos have only won this tourney 2 times in the past, but as we all know the 3rd time is the charm.

A-10 tourney predicted champ: George Mason (#5 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: Washington, DC
Last year’s tourney champ: Rhode Island (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs in past 8 years
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were #4-5 seed
This tourney has had 7 different champs in the past 8 years so I will pick George Mason to make it 8 of 9. The 2 favorites are Rhode Island/St. Bonaventure, each of whom beat the Patriots by 16+ PTS this year. However, after seeing each of the top-2 seeds struggle at home last Tuesday (the Rams lost by 30 and the Bonnies needed triple-OT to beat Davidson), the fact that a lot of 4&5 seeds have had success in the past gives hope to everyone in Fairfax, VA. Coach Dave Paulsen has had plenty of success in March at his prior 2 programs: a D-2 title at Williams in 2003 and 4 postseason appearances during his final 5 years at Bucknell. The biggest X-factor of all is SO SF Ian Boyd who was a 1-man buzzer-beater last month: a 3 to beat St. Joe’s, a layup to beat UMass, and then a tip-in to beat VCU.

Big East tourney predicted champ: Villanova (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: New York, NY
Last year’s tourney champ: Villanova (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Villanova has been in title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 5 of past 8 champs were not top-2 seed
It seems impossible that Butler has never won a Big East tourney game…but the Bulldogs have never won a Big East tourney game. I am very tempted to pick Providence since they are the only team to beat both Villanova/Xavier this year, but when you lose to DePaul at home by 17 you have lost my vote. Xavier only has 4 losses all season but 2 of them were to Villanova by double-digits so I will select the Wildcats to win their 3rd conference tourney in the past 4 years. Coach Jay Wright’s team started 22-1 before stumbling through February with losses to St. John’s/Providence/Creighton, but after seeing his team simply shred Georgetown in person back in January I can assure you that they are good enough to go all the way. They do not have any seniors of note, they do not have any key players taller than 6’8”: all they have is 1 of the best teams in the nation that has not lost a game by double-digits since December…of 2015!!

Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Idaho (#2 seed)
Dates: March 6-10
Location: Reno, NV
Last year’s tourney champ: North Dakota (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were #1 seed
Each of the top-4 teams in this league had 13+ wins in conference play so it will not be a cakewalk for any of them. Even though the #1 seed has had a great track record in the past I will give the nod to Idaho because they are 4-0 this year against the other top-4 seeds (Eastern Washington/Montana/Weber State) and have won 12 of their past 14 games. Coach Don Verlin starts 4 seniors/1 junior who will try their best to win it all for SR G Perrion Callandret, who is out for the year after breaking his kneecap in late-February. I normally am not a fan of Vandal-ism but I will make an exception for this squad.

Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Kansas (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Kansas City, MO
Last year’s tourney champ: Iowa State (#4 seed)
Fun fact: only 5 champs ever are Iowa State/Kansas/Missouri/Oklahoma/Oklahoma State
Seeding: 19 of past 21 champs were top-3 seed
Do the math: only 5 teams have ever won this tourney and only 1 of these 5 is a top-3 seed, so even though this conference is stacked the eventual victor will be Kansas. The Jayhawks swept the #3 seed this year (West Virginia) and were 1 PT away from sweeping the #2 seed (Texas Tech). The tourney remains in Kansas City for the 9th straight March, which gives Coach Bill Self’s team a huge home-court advantage approximately 45 minutes away from Allen Fieldhouse. They have size in 7-footer Udoka Azubuike, great 3-PT shooting on the perimeter, and 1 of the best players in the nation in SR PG Devonte’ Graham.

Big West tourney predicted champ: Fullerton (#4 seed)
Dates: March 8-10
Location: Anaheim, CA
Last year’s tourney champ: UC Davis (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 7 different champs in past 7 years
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were not #1 seed
I know it may be unwise to pick Fullerton as the 8th different champ in the past 8 years, especially since they were swept by UCSB during a 9-day stretch in late-January, but all of the other contenders have problems as well. The defending champs were swept by Fullerton and suspended their star forward Chima Moneke due to a violation of team rules at a hotel, UC Irvine started the season 5-12, and UCSB lost 3 of their final 5 games to finish the regular season. On the other hand, Coach Dedrique Taylor’s team finished strong by winning 5 of their final 7 games. They do not start a single senior so they might be 1 year away from contending, but with 5 starters ranging from 6’3” to 6’7” they can switch any ball screen you throw at them.

C-USA tourney predicted champ: Middle Tennessee (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Frisco, TX
Last year’s tourney champ: Middle Tennessee (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Middle Tennessee has been in title game each of past 3 years
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
Many teams have learned the hard way that it is no fun to play Middle Tennessee in March: the Blue Raiders have won an NCAA tourney game during each of the past 2 years. Coach Kermit Davis has created a veritable juggernaut with 5 postseason appearances in the past 6 years and six 24+ win seasons over the past 7 years. Each of their 3 non-conference losses since Thanksgiving were to high-major teams by 3-6 PTS at neutral sites (Auburn/Miami/USC). Their 16-2 record since Christmas makes them 1 of the hottest teams in the country, so as long as they can avoid Marshall (the only team who swept them this season) they should be okay. With 3 seniors in the starting lineup they have plenty of guys who know what it takes to win a title so there is no reason for anyone to be feeling “blue” in Murfreesboro.

Ivy tourney predicted champ: Penn (#2 seed)
Dates: March 10-11
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Last year’s tourney champ: Princeton (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Penn has not lost conference game in Palestra this season
Seeding: #1-seed has never lost a game in this tourney
Biased much!? Unlike last year’s tourney which featured a Princeton team that was undefeated in conference play, this appears to be a 2-team race between a pair of teams with vastly different histories during the past decade. Penn coach Steve Donahue just led the Quakers to only their 2nd winning season since 2007, while Harvard coach Tommy Amaker has only had 1 losing season since 2008. Harvard did beat Penn in Cambridge in early-February, but the Quakers won the rematch 2 weeks later at the Palestra, which just happens to be the location of this tourney. Penn is a poor FT shooting team whose tallest player is 6’8”…yet all they have done since getting slaughtered by Villanova in late-November is win 18 of 22.

MAC tourney predicted champ: Eastern Michigan (#3 seed)
Dates: March 5-10
Location: Campus sites and Cleveland, OH
Last year’s tourney champ: Kent State (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Seeding: 6 of past 9 champs were not top-2 seed
The top-2 seeds have had mixed success in tourneys past and Eastern Michigan has not won this tourney in 20 years so they are long overdue. The Eagles stormed into the start of the season by winning 8 of their 1st 10 games, then lost 8 of their next 12, but finished strong by winning 8 of their final 9 games (which included a sweep of West Division champ Toledo). Coach Rob Murphy has only 1 senior of note on the roster (Tim Bond) so they might be 1 year away, but with a frontcourt that stands 6’7”/6’9”/6’10” they can go toe-to-toe with any high-major in the country. However, they better get it done in regulation since they are 0-3 in OT this season.

MEAC tourney predicted champ: Hampton (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-10
Location: Norfolk, VA
Last year’s tourney champ: NC Central (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs in past 4 years are Hampton/NC Central
Seeding: 3 of past 4 champs were #1 seed
This should be 1 of the most competitive tourneys in the country as each of the top-5 seeds have 11-12 conference wins. Since NC Central is not 1 of those 5 teams, Hampton looks to be the favorite. Coach Ed Joyner Jr. should expect a lot of fan support as the tourney is only 15 miles away from the Hampton Convocation Center. He tested his team in non-conference play by scheduling a pair of big boys in Virginia/Xavier, and they responded well in conference play by winning 10 of their final 11 games. With a starting lineup featuring 4 juniors/1 sophomore they could be 1 year away from something special, and with only 1 starter taller than 6’5” they are certainly capable of being beat up on the boards. However, they beat each of the other top-3 seeds during the season by double-digits (Bethune-Cookman/Savannah State) so you should want to be a Pirate for a change.

MWC tourney predicted champ: Nevada (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Last year’s tourney champ: Nevada (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Seeding: 6 of past 7 champs were top-2 seed
Despite their 1st road loss of the season in regulation last Saturday night, Nevada prepares to defend its title as the odds-on favorite. Coach Eric Musselman’s team is 5-0 against the other top-4 seeds (Boise State/Fresno State/New Mexico) so they will not be scared of whoever is in their path. They have a ton of juniors/seniors and 1 of the best transfer packages in college basketball history in the form of twin brothers Caleb/Cody Martin (combined 33.5 PPG/11.8 RPG/6.9 APG/2.9 SPG/2 BPG) who headed west after 2 years with another Wolfpack (NC State). They only lost to Texas Tech/TCU in December by a combined 10 PTS so if this Wolf Pack team can win a title this week then they might even win a game or 2 next week.

Pac-12 predicted champ: Arizona (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Last year’s tourney champ: Arizona (#2 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 teams to play in title game during past 5 years are Arizona/Oregon/UCLA/Utah
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were top-2 seed
Biased much part 2!? People may be doubting the “classiness” of Arizona off the court but despite all the drama of the past 2 weeks they remain the class of the league on the court. It seems like half of this conference is squarely on the bubble so if it appears that they are playing like their postseason lives depend on it…it is because they do. If any of Rawle Alkins/DeAndre Ayton/Allonzo Trier were missing in action then I would be the 1st to doubt them but at the moment they are all eligible/healthy. When all 3 of them have been active this season the Wildcats have won 14 games (including a 14-PT win over USC last month) and lost 3 by a combined 14 PTS. Combine that with an us-against-the-world mentality, a team who has made the title game in 5 of the past 7 years, and a ton of alums/fans/students who will make the short flight to Vegas and you have a recipe for success.

SEC predicted champ: Tennessee (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: St. Louis, MO
Last year’s tourney champ: Kentucky (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Kentucky has won past 5 of past 8 titles and lost 2 other title games by combined 8 PTS
Seeding: each of past 9 champs were top-3 seed
8 teams with 20+ wins = get ready for a dogfight where even 1st round opponents cannot be taken for granted: Alabama-Texas A&M could be 1 of the best opening round matchups in tourney history as it features a pair of potential lottery picks in Collin Sexton/Robert Williams. For all of Kentucky’s success in this tourney, they have been terrible this year against each of the other top-4 seeds (0-5 combined record vs. Auburn/Florida/Tennessee) so it looks like their youth might have finally caught up to them. The Tigers seemed like a smart pick when they were 21-2 but losing 4 of their final 8 is great cause for concern. In contrast, the Volunteers stumbled into conference play with a pair of losses but have won 14 of their past 17 games despite being saddled with 1 of the strongest schedules in the nation. Coach Rick Barnes has won more than 650 games during his career but exactly 1 of them has occurred in a conference tourney title game (a 10-PT win by Providence over Georgetown in the 1994 Big East tourney). He does not appear to have a very experienced team with a starting lineup of 3 sophomores/2 juniors…but compared to all the freshmen on the Wildcats they look downright ancient!

Southland predicted champ: SE Louisiana (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: Katy, TX
Last year’s tourney champ: New Orleans (#1 seed)
Fun fact: last year was 1st title game without McNeese State or Stephen F. Austin in 9 years
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were #1 seed
I wish I could pick Nicholls State, the #2 seed who has not won this tourney in 20 years, but getting swept by each of the other top-3 seeds (SE Louisiana/Stephen F. Austin) is a red flag. On the other hand, the Lions swept the Colonels/Lumberjacks to help them go 15-3 in league play. Coach Jay Ladner has improved during each of his 4 years in Hammond: 9 wins in year 1, 12 in year 2, 16 in year 3, and 21 in year 4 (the 2nd-most in school history). The top-2 seeds get a double-bye, which gives them a huge advantage in this 8-team tourney, and their starting lineup of 4 seniors/1 junior means they have enough experience to make the 2nd-ever NCAA tourney appearance in school history.

SWAC predicted champ: Texas Southern (#3 seed)
Dates: March 6-10
Location: Campus sites and Houston, TX
Last year’s tourney champ: Texas Southern (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs from past 5 years are Southern/Texas Southern
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were top-2 seed
The good news for Grambling is that their 13-5 record as the best in league play…but the bad news is that the Tigers are 1 of 3 teams in the nation who are ineligible for postseason play (along with Alabama A&M/SE Missouri State). Texas Southern has literally had a tale of 2 seasons: 0-13 in non-conference play and 12-6 in conference play. Coach Mike Davis has owned this conference ever since he was hired in Houston in 2012: 6-straight top-2 finishes in the league and 4 straight trips to the postseason. Ironically, the Tigers are not even the best team to play on their own home court: the nearby Cougars have also played their “home” games at H&PE Arena while they try to finish construction of the Fertitta Center later this year. Demontrae Jefferson might be 1 of the smallest players in the nation at 5’7”, but after being suspended for a violation of team rules in January he returned with a vengeance in February (26.6 PPG/4.9 APG/49 3P%/80 FT%): I guess everything really is bigger in Texas.

Sun Belt predicted champ: Louisiana-Lafayette (#1 seed)
Dates: March 7-11
Location: New Orleans, LA
Last year’s tourney champ: Troy (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 4 of past 7 champs were #5-7 seed
This seems like a great opportunity to not pick the #1 seed in every tourney…but Louisiana-Lafayette is simply too good and should have plenty of fans in attendance since it is just a 2-hour drive to the Lakefront Arena in New Orleans. They are also angry after finishing the regular season on the wrong side of the upset of the season.  With under 8 minutes left they held a 10-PT lead at home over a 6-24 Little Rock team that had lost 11 of its previous 12 games, yet somehow choked it away to lose by double-digits in OT. Coach Bob Marlin’s birthday is on Monday and what better gift could he receive from his team than a 6th trip to a postseason tourney in the past 9 years. Georgia State did upset the Ragin’ Cajuns in early-February but apparently it took a ton out of them as the Panthers proceeded to lose 4 of their final 6 games. The Cajuns have a veteran starting lineup of 2 seniors/3 juniors and have already set a school record for most wins in a season, so the Big Upset would be if anyone else were to emerge victorious in the Big Easy.

WAC predicted champ: Utah Valley (#2 seed)
Dates: March 7-10
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Last year’s tourney champ: New Mexico State (#2 seed)
Fun fact: New Mexico State has won 7 of past 11 titles and lost 2 other title games by combined 8 PTS
Seeding: 5 of past 6 champs were not #1 seed
The defending champs cruised into Valentine’s Day with a 22-3 record and then broke the hearts of their admirers by losing consecutive road games at Utah Valley/Seattle before getting back on track to finish 25-5. However, this tourney has not been kind to #1 seeds (which the Aggies know only too well after beating #1 seed Bakersfield in the title game last March) so we shall go with the Wolverines. Coach Mark Pope has improved during each of his 3 years in Orem: 12 wins in year 1, 17 in year 2, and 21 in year 3 (the most in school history at the D-1 level). However, the top-2 seeds no longer receive a double-bye so his team will have to earn it. They have spectacular senior size inside with 6’11” Isaac Neilson/7’ Akolda Manyang and a double-shot of Toolsons in the starting lineup with Conner (SG)/Jake (SF). Compared to the start of this season (road games on consecutive nights at Rupp Arena/Cameron Indoor Stadium), the end of the season should seem like a walk in the Valley.

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Sowing the seeds we love: HoopsHD interviews Selection Committee member/Southland Conference Commissioner Tom Burnett

Posted on March 4, 2018 by Jon Teitel

For those of you who simply could not wait until Selection Sunday to find out what the Selection Committee was thinking, the top-16 teams were revealed in a sneak preview on February 11th. This was not a crystal ball previewing exactly which schools will be protected seeds on March 11th…although 3 of the #1 seeds from last year’s preview DID become #1 seeds last Selection Sunday (Gonzaga/Kansas/Villanova). Rather, it served as a peek behind the curtain at what the committee was thinking and what criteria they were using in their analysis of everyone’s body of work. HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Selection Committee member Tom Burnett about this week’s Southland Conference tournament and “the intent to schedule”.

How many hours/week were you working on selection stuff last month, and what changes would you recommend to keep your fellow committee members from losing their sanity on Selection Sunday? You tend to lose track of the hours but in my 1st year on the committee as the season started if felt like I was attempting to watch everything out there even though it is impossible. As we progressed into January there is still a lot of viewing going on because conference play was starting, but by February it starts to narrow down so that you can focus your scrutiny on the best teams. I would guess that in 30 or so years of working in a conference office I have never watched as much basketball in my life.

In 2002/2003 you spent back-to-back years working for the New Orleans Local Organizing Committee on the Men’s Final Four and Super Bowl XXXVII: how did these 2 amazing events compare to each other? Obviously they are both big events at such a spectacular venue with the Superdome. It was big-time competition so to have a front row seat for a lot of that was a special part of my career that I will always value. I draw upon that experience to this day and apply it to different kinds of events that I work on.

Which primary conferences are you assigned to this year, and how much weight do you give to input from representatives of these conferences? My primary conferences this year are the MWC/MAC/SoCon/Big South. As much as I would like to be an expert on all of them you need guidance from the people in the trenches. I am very familiar with that role: as a representative from the Southland I spent the past few years in the role of giving insight to the Selection Committee about teams like Stephen F. Austin.

What are the major categories that have the biggest impact on a team’s seed (big road win, bad home loss, other), and why are they more important than other categories? There is so much data out there that it is like drinking from a firehose! The easy answer is all of the above but I honestly think that is the real answer. Every committee member has the latitude to prioritize the information however they wish and can change the way they do that during the season. There is no question that scheduling is a huge factor so we use a term called “the intent to schedule”. When you look at teams (especially at the mid-major level) who tried to challenge themselves with road games against Power 5 competition, that is important to me: when I get in the committee room I will figure out exactly how to prioritize it. The flip side is a little harder to define if you do not schedule difficult teams…but I know it when I see it.

This season the committee has implemented a new 4-tier system that emphasizes the location of wins/losses: has it made your life easier/harder, and do you think that this new system renders the “eye test” a thing of the past? As a conference commissioner for the past 15 years I can tell you that RPI has been a big part of my life. I do not know that I have had a “eureka” moment but as other members have said, RPI is a way to sort information and put teams into a different kind of order. I do not have the direct comparison of the old system vs. the new system but am looking forward to being in the committee room next week. As far as the “eye test”, the committee does not use that phrase and I have never uttered those words myself in the past. I see it used by the media and bracketology-types but when we see a great team we know it.

What role do injuries (such as Michael Porter Jr.)/suspensions (such as Terrence Phillips) have on the seeding of a team who has had to deal with such obstacles (like Missouri, even if you cannot speak about them specifically)? The committee takes player absences very seriously and we want to know everything we can about player (and perhaps even coach) availability. It has been an unusual year as we have seen: there are always injuries but as we have seen in the news some programs have had other issues as well. It is probably not the #1 overall parameter but is used on a case-by-case basis. During our conference monitoring calls throughout the year it is a huge part of our conversation: who is out, what was the competitive impact of their absence, when will they return, etc.

If a team wants to make the tourney, are they better off scheduling decent teams who they think they can beat, or great teams who they can only hope to upset, or a nice mix of both, or other? In my view it is a mix of both. When a team challenges themselves in non-conference play early on that is the 1st impression we will get of them. Certainly as we proceed during conference tourneys we will see how the programs stack up. It ties back to “the intent to schedule”: the committee has talked about going on the road as being an important factor so I want us to hold ourselves to those standards. We will see where the committee lands next weekend.

The Southland Conference tourney starts on Wednesday in Katy, TX, and will feature 7 teams with overall winning records: what should fans be most excited about when they tune in, and care to offer a prediction as to who will win it all? The commissioner is never good at predictions but I think it will be 1 of our most competitive tourneys ever. There is a great story with a Nicholls State team who has not won a title in 20 years, after last year wen we had a great story with New Orleans winning the title after rebounding from Hurricane Katrina. Stephen F. Austin was very impressive in non-conference play and you have a SE Louisiana team who has not had this kind of success in more than a decade. It is wide-open and a bit top-heavy so it should be very competitive. I am struggling with it because it is my baby and I cannot be there to enjoy it: I will be the most interested observer from a distance!

Earlier this year NCAA tournament media coordinator David Worlock stated that for the 1st time you and the other committee members will see many other rankings on the official team sheets in addition to the traditional RPI (such as BPI/KPI/KenPom): have you made great use of these advanced metrics in the past, and do you have a favorite 1? In my role as commissioner I am interested in every metric out there to see how teams compare against the rest of the field. I have been a KenPom subscriber in the past and it is all valuable information. For convenience purposes more than anything they now appear on the team sheets but we have access to other data as well to enhance what we do. There is a longer-term issue about whether/how to combine predictive/results-based metrics but each committee member uses it to different degrees. I am a big proponent of it.

For the 2nd straight year the selection committee unveiled its top-16 seeds in February: what was the reaction like to this year’s unveiling, and what was the most interesting part of this year’s snapshot? We have seen so much competitive parity this year that the top-16 reveal was good…for about 5 minutes! Within a week it was pretty clear that we might have come up with a different decision only 7 days later. It was my 1st go at it but I thought the process was interesting. My biggest takeaway is that after the unveiling we wad up the paper and throw it away, but at that moment in time there was a consensus as to what we were all thinking. Anything can change.

What was your reaction to all the news that was reported during the past couple of weeks concerning the college basketball FBI investigation? I cannot speak for the Selection Committee but as a stakeholder in college athletics for a long time and speaking for our own conference, a lot of us are very concerned about what we saw/read. I admit that we did not have any advance information and are reacting similarly to that in the public square. I am more curious as to where the bottom is because the indication is that we just might be scratching the surface. It is such a great sport with a world-class championship: I could not be more honored to work on it so anything that puts that at risk gives me great concern. I hope that all of us can get this fixed and make it much better going forward.

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News, Notes and Regular Season Games: Sunday, March 4th

Posted on March 4, 2018 by John Stalica

For our latest Championship Week video notebook – CLICK HERE

For Jon Teitel’s latest bracket projection where he attempts to guess the NCAA Selection Committee – CLICK HERE

-For the most part, yesterday was the final day of the regular season for teams except for the American – we will get to them a little bit later on.

-As unbelievable as it sounds, 9 teams out of 10 in the Big 12 have a shot at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma State is a team with bad overall metrics, but they now have a season sweep of Kansas with a decisive win at home yesterday against the Jayhawks. They will likely need to beat Oklahoma in the 1st round of the Big 12 tournament to strengthen their case, but if they can beat Kansas for a 3rd time in the quarterfinal round, that should be enough for them to get in.

-Texas also finished the regular season strong with a home win against West Virginia. They have a more manageable Big 12 opener against Iowa State, so it would be in their best interest to win that one on Wednesday so as not to sweat on Selection Sunday. Elsewhere in the Big 12, K-State beat Baylor at home and Texas Tech ended their recent skid with a home win against TCU where they trailed for most of the game.

-In the Big East, Xavier struggled to pull away from DePaul, but the Blue Demons did have a couple of chances to tie the game in regulation before throwing up a pair of 3-point prayers that went unanswered. The Musketeers will end up as Big East regular season champs by themselves and hold the fate of a potential #1 seed in their own hands. Villanova also beat Georgetown without any serious trouble.

-Marquette and Providence also helped their at-large cases with home wins against Creighton and St. John’s, respectively. The Golden Eagles did finish their 30-year run in the Bradley Center on a high note (assuming they don’t play any NIT games there). Seton Hall also clinched the #3 seed in the Big East tournament with a home win against Butler; both teams will immediately play each other on Thursday night in the Big East quarterfinal round.

-In the Pac-12, parity is rearing its head in an ugly way. Arizona State continued to cripple themselves with a home loss to Stanford. The Sun Devils finished 8-10 in the Pac-12 and are nowhere near the team that beat Kansas State, Xavier and Kansas back in November/December. Even Arizona had trouble at home against Cal, but ultimately pulled away in the 2nd half. USC was also looking like they were coming out of their slump in recent weeks, but instead they were swept by UCLA in the regular season. They’ll still be the #2 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament, but they are going to at least need to get to the championship game to really feel safe (and might need to win the whole thing if Arizona loses early).

-Utah finished on a high note with a win against Colorado at home. They also have a shot at an at-large, but cannot afford a one-and-done in Vegas later this week. Oregon completed their spoiler ways with a season sweep of Washington up in Seattle yesterday. The Ducks can certainly do some damage in the Pac-12 Tournament, but the auto-bid is their only realistic option at this point.

-Auburn and Tennessee both clinched a share of the SEC crown with home wins against South Carolina and Georgia at home yesterday. Auburn gets the #1 seed by virtue of their win at Tennessee earlier in the season. Florida and Missouri both finished their seasons at home with style points against Kentucky and Arkansas, respectively. Alabama is now sweating bullets after losing at Texas A&M yesterday. Losing their SEC opener is certainly not an option, and they will need to at least beat Auburn in the quarterfinals beyond that.

-While Virginia became the first ACC team to finish 17-1 in the 18-game ACC era, Duke came back from a double-digit deficit to beat North Carolina at home yesterday. This ensures that Duke will get the #2 seed and a double bye into the ACC quarters on Thursday. North Carolina fell to a #6 seed. Elsewhere, NC State all but solidified their case with a home win against Louisville, and Syracuse ended up getting a protected seed-caliber win in their home finale against Clemson yesterday.

-While Nevada still has the Mountain West regular season title in tow, their seed continues to drop with their loss at San Diego State last night. They still have a shot at an at-large bid, but losing to either Air Force or UNLV could jeopardize that as well. Middle Tennessee is now going to need the auto bid themselves after losing their home finale to Marshall.

-In terms of head coaching news, Marty Wilson coached his last game at Pepperdine in their come-from-ahead loss to Saint Mary’s yesterday. It also appears that Paul Lusk will be out as head coach at Missouri State as well. Ole Miss is also reportedly reaching out to Thad Matta in regards to their head coaching position.

-While our Team of the People Cal Baptist lost the Pac West title game at home to Dixie State, we nonetheless expect their name to be called at 10:30 PM EST tonight when the NCAA Division II Tournament field is unveiled tonight (further details HERE).

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-CINCINNATI AT WICHITA STATE (American). As we expected at the beginning of the year, everything in the American will come down to today’s game with the winner of the game getting the #1 seed in the conference tournament. The winner also has the better chance of getting at least a Top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

-TEMPLE AT TULSA (American). Temple needs to win today just to be assured of finishing at .500 in the American. Tulsa has shown they can be a bit of a noisemaker themselves – however they must win the conference tournament if they want to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

-UCONN AT HOUSTON (American). Houston is relatively safe as far as an at-large spot for now, but losing at home to UConn will put that spot in mortal peril.

 

 

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes and Regular Season Games: Sunday, March 4th

Bracketology 2018: March Madness Predictions (Version 10)

Posted on March 4, 2018 by Jon Teitel

We are only 1 week away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked every single 1 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, 63 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 43 right on the money. He will spend the rest of this week predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 11th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 4th out of 113 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Virginia (ACC)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: Xavier (Big East)
1: Kansas (Big 12)

2: Duke (ACC)
2: North Carolina (ACC)
2: Purdue (Big 10)
2: Michigan State (Big 10)

3: Auburn (SEC)
3: Cincinnati (AAC)
3: Tennessee (SEC)
3: Wichita State (AAC)

4: West Virginia (Big 12)
4: Clemson (ACC)
4: Texas Tech (Big 12)
4: Arizona (Pac-12)

5: Kentucky (SEC)
5: Ohio State (Big 10)
5: Gonzaga (WCC)
5: Michigan (Big 10)

6: TCU (Big 12)
6: Houston (AAC)
6: Nevada (MWC)
6: Florida (SEC)

7: Arkansas (SEC)
7: Texas A&M (SEC)
7: Miami FL (ACC)
7: Rhode Island (A-10)

8: Seton Hall (Big East)
8: Creighton (Big East)
8: Virginia Tech (ACC)
8: Oklahoma (Big 12)

9: Missouri (SEC)
9: Butler (Big East)
9: Arizona State (Pac-12)
9: Florida State (ACC)

10: St. Mary’s (WCC)
10: NC State (ACC)
10: USC (Pac-12)
10: Alabama (SEC)

11: St. Bonaventure (A-10)
11: Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
11: Kansas State (Big 12)
11: Providence (Big East)
11: Baylor (Big 12)
11: Louisville (ACC)

12: Texas (Big 12)
12: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
12: New Mexico State (WAC)
12: Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)

13: Buffalo (MAC)
13: South Dakota State (Summit)
13: Vermont (America East)
13: Murray State (OVC): AUTO-BID

14: UNC Greensboro (SoCon)
14: Charleston (CAA)
14: Montana (Big Sky)
14: Bucknell (Patriot)

15: UC Davis (Big West)
15: Wright State (Horizon)
15: Penn (Ivy)
15: Wagner (NEC)

16: Iona (MAAC)
16: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
16: Radford (Big South)
16: Nicholls State (Southland)
16: Hampton (MEAC)
16: Arkansas Pine-Bluff (SWAC)

Posted in Bracketology | Comments Off on Bracketology 2018: March Madness Predictions (Version 10)

Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 6, Sunday

Posted on March 4, 2018 by David Griggs

WELCOME SELECTION COMMITTEE MEMBERS!!  We’ve got all the information you need!! – CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE SURVIVAL BOARD

Saturday was the busiest day of Championship Week so far, and we run through all the action.  Murray State won the Ohio Valley Championship in a very impressive showing, both semifinals of the Missouri Valley were exciting, Michigan pulled off another upset over Michigan State and will face Purdue in the Big Ten Championship tomorrow, We saw more carnage in the Metro Atlantic, and the top seed in the Horizon League also went down.  We cover all that and all of the other conference tournament action.  We then update our Survival Board, and close with our nightly Championship Week Trivia Question

And for all you radio lovers, below is an audio file of the show.

 

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BRACKETS OF TODAY’S ACTION

Atlantic Sun

Big South

Patriot League

 

 

Posted in Bracketology, Championship Week Video Notebook, News and Notes, Podcasts, Videocasts | Comments Off on Championship Week Video Notebook: Day 6, Sunday

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, March 3rd

Posted on March 3, 2018 by David Griggs

CLICK HERE for our latest Championship Week Video Notebook

CLICK HERE for the final UTR Game of the Day of the season

-Rhode Island lost their second straight game as they fell at Davidson last night.  They should still be in relatively safe shape, but they’re not helping their seeding any.

-Oklahoma got a much needed win at home against Iowa State.  Despite a really weak finish to the season the Sooners are relatively safe.

-XAVIER AT DEPAUL (Big East).  A win for Xavier clinches an outright Big East title and sustains their status as a #1 seed.  As long as they avoid losses to non-tournament teams the rest of the way I think they’ll get it.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT TEXAS (Big 12).  West Virginia has gotten a little hot lately and their resume has once again started to improve.  Texas is going in the opposite direction.  They’re squarely on the bubble and could really use this win today.

-KENTUCKY AT FLORIDA (SEC).  Both teams are solidly in and are just playing for seeding.  That being said, both have room to improve their seed with a strong finish.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT MIAMI FL (ACC).  Both teams have really been playing well lately, are virtual locks for the tournament, and are playing for seeding both today and throughout the ACC Tournament.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  Providence is very close to the bubble and really can’t afford to lose to a non-tournament team at home.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT LSU (SEC).  If either of these teams has any hopes for landing in the field, they need to win today and go on a run in the SEC Tournament. That said, Mississippi State might have a better chance with a win than LSU would if the Tigers end up winning this one.

-CLEMSON AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  Clemson is on the verge of a protected seed and could lock it up with a win today.  Syracuse is squarely on the bubble and could use a big quality win.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  Florida State is in good shape and just needs to hold serve.  BC has improved a lot this season and can actually improve to 8-10 in ACC play with a win, but still isn’t up to being a tournament caliber team just yet.

-ALABAMA AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  Both teams are sliding, but Bama’s slide seems to be a little more drastic.  They’ve also been poor on the road and could really use this win to stabilize their resume.  TAMU is a little more safe, but could also use another stabilizing win of their own.

-BAYLOR AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12).  Kansas State will probably virtually lock themselves in if they’re able to win.  Baylor is very close to our bubble and a win today will make them feel a lot safer.

-STANFORD AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve).  Arizona State has been shaky all throughout conference play, but should have enough on their resume to keep them safely inside the bubble if they’re able to win this one.

-CREIGHTON AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Creighton is trying to complete a strong finish to the season and should easily end up on the top half of the bracket if they can win this one on the road.  Marquette is another one of those teams that is squarely on the bubble and could use a quality win.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT AUBURN (SEC).  Auburn has suddenly lost three of their last four, but they have a winnable game today that can help them bounce back, and they’ll clinch at least a share of first place if they’re able to pull it off.  They’re also set up nicely for a protected seed and should get it so long as they avoid losses to non-tournament teams.

-NOTRE DAME AT VIRGINIA (ACC).  Virginia won in dramatic fashion the other night in at Louisville and can probably lock themselves into a #1 seed if with a win today regardless of what happens in the conference tournament.

-KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  Kansas can finish first in the Big Twelve.  Again.  They are also on the trajectory to end up as a #1 seed if they can pick up the win today and win at least one in the Big 12 Tourney.

-TCU AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12).  Texas Tech has battled injuries and has lost four straight, but is still in good shape and should be very dangerous again once they get healthy.  I think TCU is locked into the Tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way and is now just playing for seeding.

-WASHINGTON AT OREGON (Pac Twelve).  Washington is outside the bubble and needs a win today and a nice showing in the Pac Twelve Tournament if they want to play their way inside of it.  This is a rivalry with a little heat, so a road win won’t be easy.

-GEORGETOWN AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Nova still has an outside shot of tying for first place, but even if they don’t they probably still end up on the #1 line just as long as they hold serve today and in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament.

-GEORGIA AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Tennessee can clinch at least a share of first place in the SEC, and probably a protected seed as well, if they can win this one at home.

-LOUISVILLE AT NC STATE (ACC). NC State is slipping and really needs this win.  They may be sweating things out if they don’t get it.  Louisville has slipped even more and really needs this win even more.  They missed a golden opportunity at a high caliber win earlier in the week and could really use a quality road win like this to strengthen their chances.

-ARKANSAS AT MISSOURI (SEC).  Mizzou is squarely on our bubble and could use a win today, as well as a win or two in the conference tournament, to help secure them a spot in the field.  Arkansas has been playing better lately, but still has room to improve.

-CALIFORNIA AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve).  Arizona is now back at full strength, coaches, players and all, and appears to be good enough to win out through the conference tournament.  If they do that then they will likely end up as a protected seed.

-MARSHALL AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA).  Middle Tennessee is currently inside our bubble, and they will most likely stay there if they can win this game and avoid a loss in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament.

-COLORADO AT UTAH (Pac Twelve).  It would take a tremendous effort, but Utah may be able to land inside the field if they play their way into the conference championship game.

-WYOMING AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  Boise State will almost assuredly need the automatic bid to make the field, but I suppose there is a slim sliver of hope if they win out to the conference championship game.

-BUTLER AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Butler is slipping closer and closer to the bubble and could be in a little bit of trouble if they lose this one and lose their first conference tournament game, but in all likelihood they are still safe.  Seton Hall is just playing for seeding from here on out.

-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten).  The Bonnies are on our bubble, and I think they have a decent shot at making the field, but they need to avoid losses to sub-tournament teams, which basically means avoiding losses to anyone other than Rhode Island.

-DUKE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  They are eight miles apart!  They’ve never met in the NCAA Tournament!  And they both have an outside shot at a #1 seed, but they’d probably need to win out through the conference tournament.

-NEVADA AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  We haven’t quite locked Nevada into the Tournament on our Survival Board, but they are a virtual lock and should be an actual lock for the actual tournament if they’re able to win this one.

-USC AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  It’s a rivalry game between two bubble teams.  Both need this win, and perhaps even a little bit more, in order to make the field.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, March 3rd