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What you see below is, in essence, what the perfect bracket would look like if the season ended today.  I am not trying to guess what the actual selection committee will do on Selection Sunday, nor am I trying to necessarily guess or suppose what the actual committee would do if the season ended today.  Jon Teitel does that, he’s awesome at it, and if that’s what you’re looking for then you should definitely check out his latest bracket by CLICKING HERE.  This is simply what I think the bracket should look like if the season ended today.

Despite the fact that it is essentially perfect, some of my Hoops HD colleagues will undoubtedly want to incorrectly criticize it.  Any disagreement with this bracket is categorically wrong, but if you still want to read it anyway then their comments are below.

NOTES FROM DAVID

-Not only is Xavier on the #1 line, but I have them ahead of Purdue.  They’ve played a tougher schedule, have lost just one more game, and have better wins.  Xavier’s loss at Villanova is basically negligible, and their other two losses at Providence (who has just one other home loss) and to Arizona State on a neutral floor strike me as less damaging than Purdue’s losses to Western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Neither of those are bad, but Xavier’s strike me as being less bad.  Now Xavier has had a few close calls this week, but they’ve managed to win.

-Duke is 4-3 in true road games, which isn’t bad at all, but it’s not #1 seed good when two of those losses came to teams that aren’t likely to make the tournament, including the loss at Saint John’s who isn’t likely to even make the NIT.  Their wins are good, but as of today their only win against a likely protected seed was against Michigan State.  The other teams on the #1 line have done more.

-Cincinnati is way up in the rankings!!  Good for them!!  I don’t have them as a protected seed simply because their next win against a team that is solidly in the field will be their first.  IF they can beat Wichita State (who is slumping but is still solidly a tournament team) then I’ll like them a lot better, especially if they can beat them twice.

-Nevada, New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee, Loyola Chicago, and Western Kentucky are all currently inside my bubble.  They don’t have an abundance of wins against tournament teams, but they have won a lot away from home, and have won games that are difficult to win even though they’re not against tournament teams.  Western Kentucky really blew it this weekend against UTSA or else I would have had them higher.  They still have the win at Purdue, a neutral floor win over SMU, and what is impressive is wins at Old Dominion and at Marshall, who are a combined 19-3 at home.  Two of those three losses were to the Hilltoppers.

-Loyola Chicago also had a tough loss this week at Bradley, but Bradley is also 11-1 at home, and the Ramblers have some tough wins, including the win at Florida.  If this really is about picking the best teams, then the teams that play on the road and beat teams that are tough to beat on the road have got to be given a stronger look than someone who racks up all their quality wins at home against teams that may be in the RPI top 50, but that ultimately lose more road games than they win.

-And finally, we come to Nebraska!!  I’ve decided to expand my projected field to 69 teams this week to make room for Tim Miles and the Cornhuskers, who are winning at an impressive level when you consider the Dark Web Conspiracy they are having to deal with!!  With his coaching greatness, there is no way Nebraska would have lost a game this season if it weren’t for this awful conspiracy!!  THE DARK WEB CONSPIRACY IS REAL!!!!

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Georgia, Mississippi State, Maryland

COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

-The notion of Xavier as a #1 seed is an intriguing one, but it’s a week too early to do so. I would venture a guess that the Muskies only have 4 wins against NCAA Tournament teams at the moment (I no longer think of Marquette as a Tournament team), and only one win against a team that is a protected seed (Cincinnati). Still, the win at Seton Hall is close. The opportunities are certainly there in the next two weeks for Xavier to move up with roadies at Butler and Creighton and home games against The Hall and Villanova.

-Oklahoma and North Carolina have gone in the wrong direction the past few weeks. The Sooners have lost 4 out of their last 5 and actually have a losing record away from home. Even North Carolina’s only noteworthy win in the ACC so far is against Clemson at home. It’s a good thing they scheduled up and beat teams like Ohio State, Tennessee, Arkansas and Michigan.

-Cincinnati failed their tests against Xavier and Florida, but they are dominating the American and are a very respectable 9-2 away from home. That list includes Temple, UCLA, UCF and Buffalo. I’d even argue that Rhody could also be on the 5 line after obliterating VCU on the road last Friday. The Rams’ remaining tests include a pair of games against Davidson and a game at St. Bonaventure.

-Saint Mary’s as an 8 seed is way too low. They had one bad weekend at Thanksgiving and have made up for that with the BYU sweep along with the win at Gonzaga. The Puppet likes teams that win away from home – the Gaels are 9-2 outside of Moraga.

-I also think the Puppet is a little too quick to keep Texas A&M as low as the 11 line. He is clearly hellbent on making sure the Border War takes place in Wichita.

-Western Kentucky – I wasn’t seeing it before their loss to UTSA, and I sure as hell ain’t seeing it now. They have 4 losses against teams that are way out of the field, and even a home loss to Belmont is a Quadrant III loss. Beating Purdue and SMU just isn’t enough to offset that.

-It will probably pain everyone to read this, but where is Temple? It’s certainly fair to say categorically that a team with a losing record in the American is dead on arrival, but wins against Auburn, Clemson, SMU and Wichita State cannot be ignored. Their overall SOS is #2 in the country; they just need a QUANTITY of wins at this point to be dancing. You MUST at least consider the Owls when you have SMU and UCLA making this field.

-Upon further review of the bracket, I’m assuming that the Puppet meant to include UNC-Asheville as an auto-bid winner and not UNC-Greensboro. He’s got nobody in the Big South but 2 SoCon teams listed by mistake.

COMMENTS FROM CHAD

– Belated comments today because I was busy celebrating Temple’s huge win at Tulane along with the rest of the Philadelphia fans today.  It has been mass chaos!!!

– I still would have Duke or Kansas on the 1 line despite their losses this weekend, but I do agree that Xavier is very close to a 1 seed.  What the Blue Devils and Jayhawks did this weekend did narrow the gap significantly.

– I don’t get Arizona.  I would have them on the 4 line at best, they simply do not have the profile of anyone else in that range.  I know they are the best team in the Pac 12, but it is a lousy Pac 12.  They have zero wins away from home against anyone comfortably in the field and only two wins (Arizona State at home and Alabama at home) against teams that should be wearing white — and neither of those is a lock to do so.  This is not a 2 seed profile.

– Maybe one of the reasons for Arizona’s seed is David’s way over-ranking of Arizona State.  The Sun Devils did very nice things out of conference, but are sub-.500 in a league that will be lucky to get 4 bids.  It is almost like David awarded both Arizona schools for losing at Washington this weekend.  Or maybe he DVR’ed those games and hasn’t watched them yet?

– I agree completely with John about St Mary’s.  Having them 3 seed lines below the Zags is a joke.

– I do not yet agree with John about Temple.  I have the Owls moving closer to a bid, but they are not quite there yet.  The good news is that they do not need the quality wins — they just need to avoid any more bad losses.

– Finally, Stephen F Austin does not belong in this field.  The Lumberjacks continue to lose games they should win.  #GeauxColonels

NEWS AND NOTES

CLICK HERE for Jon Teitel’s latest seed list and bracket projections.

-This has been a crazy year.  Here is what happened just in the Top Ten yesterday:

Purdue had to sweat out Rutgers and won by just 2.

Duke went into Saint John’s, who hadn’t won a game since December 20th, and lost 81-77.

Michigan State survived on the road against Indiana after the Hoosiers had a chance to get the lead with less than a minute to play

Xavier needed overtime to knock off Georgetown at home.

Kansas lost at home (again!!) to Oklahoma State

There are only ten teams in the Top Ten!!  I counted them all to be sure, but there are only ten.  Yesterday, FIVE of them, which is half of them (again, I counted to be sure) played against teams that are not within a hundred miles of the bubble.  Of those five, two lost, one needed overtime to win, and two more won by three points or less!

And Kansas……GOOD LORD!!!!!  I’ve been watching college basketball for a long time, and I’ve been doing this tournament stuff with these guys (either at Hoops HD or in other formats) for over ten years now.  I’ve never seen anything like this.  A protected seed that is more dangerous on the road than at home.  I almost don’t know what to make of it, nor do I really know how to seed it.

-But, anyway, as for the rest of yesterday….

-Washington picked up a huge home win against Arizona.  Their resume had been getting better and better, and this improves it even more.  As for Arizona, the loss isn’t that damaging because of how well Washington has been playing lately, especially at home.

-Missouri picked up a much needed home win against Kentucky.  They were right on the bubble and this will certainly help.

-I’m not as puzzled by Florida as I am by Kansas because we see schizophrenic teams every year, but Florida is definitely schizophrenic.  They were blown out at home yesterday by an Alabama team that keeps playing getter and better as the season progresses.  As for Florida, when you look at the range of their wins and losses, they range from beating Gonzaga and Cincinnati away from home, to losing to Ole Miss and Loyola Chicago.  That’s a wide range, and on any given day they can play anywhere within that range and either look great or look awful.

-Cincinnati won on the road at UConn to continue their winning ways.

-Texas Tech blew it wide open against TCU and the final score really doesn’t indicate how much of a blowout it was.  That was a game that TCU really could have used.

-Oklahoma has now dropped four out of five after losing a fun one at Texas yesterday.

-Saint Mary’s, who’s not in the top ten, but is in the top 15, had to really sweat out a San Diego team yesterday.  After building up what appeared to be a comfortable lead, San Diego came back and almost beat them.

-Texas A&M looked good for the second game in a row and blew out South Carolina.  They may have finally turned the corner.

-Arkansas needs to start to worry a little bit.  They are by no means out of the picture, but they keep slipping further and further down.  Yesterday’s loss at LSU did not help things.

-Florida State picked up a huge road win at Louisville.  The game was close all throughout, but FSU did maintain the lead.  This should give them a nice boost.

-We had two bubblish teams lose road games to non-tournament teams yesterday.  Georgia lost at Mississippi State, and USC went down at UCLA.

-Boise State needed overtime to finish off UNLV at home, but managed to get it done.  This would have been a disastrous loss for the Broncos had they not pulled it out.

-Last, and probably least, Western Kentucky, who we had been touting as a legitimate at-large candidate, shot themselves in the foot yesterday with their loss at UTSA.  It may have been worse than that.  They may have shot themselves in the face.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-SETON HALL AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  We have Seton Hall closer to being a protected seed than they are to being in the bottom half of the bracket, but aren’t entirely sold on them as a top 16 team.  If they can some how pull off this win on the road, we (and everyone else on Earth) would be sold.

-ILLINOIS AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Ohio State is continuing to cruise and should end up safely in the top half of the bracket if they continue to hold serve.  If they’re able to knock off some of the heavyweights either during the season or in the B1G Tourney, they still have an outside shot at a protected seed.

-WISCONSIN AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  We have Maryland on the outside looking in right now, but they’re at least close enough to the bubble to be able to look in.  They won’t be if they lose this game, though.

-ARIZONA STATE AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve).  It would not be good for Arizona State if they lost this game.  It really wouldn’t be.  It’s perhaps the most winnable road game in league play, and if they drop this and fall 3 games below .500, it would not be good.

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which comes to us out of the Southland – CLICK HERE

-DUKE AT SAINT JOHN’S.  As one of my Hoops HD colleagues said (John S.) earlier this week, this is a home game for Duke against Saint John’s at MSG!!  The Johnnies have been a train wreck since conference play began, but they actually looked pretty good OOC, and since this is an OOC road game at home we’ll see how it goes!

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS (Big 12).  The oddity that is Kansas basketball and how they play better on the road than at home continues.  They should skate through this one…but they’re at home, so they need to be on upset alert.

-NOTRE DAME AT NC STATE (ACC).  Notre Dame has been hit with injuries perhaps worse than anyone else and it just doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for them.  NC State has a bit of a schizophrenic profile, but they’ve been playing really well lately and should be able to pick up another conference win at home.

-HOUSTON AT UCF (American).  Houston is squarely on the bubble, so every game the rest of the way will likely have a pivotal feel.  They missed a golden opportunity to get a win at Cincinnati, but this would be a decent (not great, but decent) road win for the Cougars if they can pull it off.

-DEPAUL AT BUTLER (Big East).  There aren’t many easy games in the Big East, but playing DePaul at home is about as close as it comes.  Butler seems to be continuing to improve and they can get to a very impressive 7-4 in league play with a win today.

-CINCINNATI AT UCONN (American).  Cincinnati is on cruise control, but a lack of wins against teams that will make the field will likely hurt their chances of ending up as a protected seed if they happen to stub their toes in a game like this.

-TEXAS TECH AT TCU (Big 12).  This one should be good.  TCU is having their best season in recent memory and can add a huge win to their resume by taking down a Texas Tech team that is…well…also having one of their best seasons in recent memory.  Texas Tech is in strong contention for a protected seed, which almost never happens, and TCU is well on pace to make the NCAA Tournament, which almost never happens.

-CLEMSON AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Amazingly, Clemson continues to win despite the injuries that they’ve had to endure.  No road win is easy, but this is one of the more winnable road games they’ll have in conference play.

-KENTUCKY AT MISSOURI (SEC).  This is a hugely important game for a Kentucky team that’s been playing better and is now on the fringe of a protected seed, and a Missouri team that’s on the fringe of the bubble.

-MIAMI FL AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  Both teams REALLY need this win.  Virginia TEch is battling a weak OOC schedule, and typically that means having to finish more than two games above .500 to make the field.  Miami is in much better shape, but they still don’t have a lot of great wins on their resume.  A conference road win against a bubble caliber team would actually look fairly decent.

-SOUTH CAROLINA AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  Right now it looks as though both teams are on the outside looking in.  TAMU is playing better, but they need to continue to string together wins to get to a point to where they are safely inside the bubble.

-MISSOURI STATE AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Missouri Valley).  Loyola may have shot themselves in the foot earlier this week when they failed to win at Bradley, but they still have a strong resume and should at least get a look if they win out through the regular season.

-RADFORD AT WINTHROP (Big South). Will Radford continue to separate themselves along with UNC-Asheville for the conference lead, or will they get caught in the conference logjam again?

-MINNESOTA AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Michigan just needs to hold serve in games like this and they should cruise into the tournament.

-PROVIDENCE AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Providence is in the bottom half of our bracket right now, and Marquette is squarely on the bubble.  This is a game that both of these teams really need.

-VIRGINIA AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  Virginia is now our top #1 seed and they can pick up another road win today against a Syracuse team that’s probably headed to the NIT (minus a huge finish), but that’s also not the easiest team to beat at home.

-LOUISIANA AT LOUISIANA MONROE (Sun Belt).  Louisiana continues to win and if they finish the regular season with just three losses, the committee still isn’t likely to take them without the auto-bid, but they will at least be in the discussion.

-ARKANSAS AT LSU (SEC).  LSU has fallen way off the bubble and needs to string together several wins just to get back within reach of it.  Arkansas is in our field for now, but you can hardly call them a lock at this point.  They still have a lot of work to do and road wins like this will help.

-PURDUE AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  Purdue continues to win and continues to look like a #1 seed.  Rutgers is capable of giving them a scare at home if the Boilers overlook them, but Purdue hasn’t really overlooked anyone since Thanksgiving.

-KANSAS STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12).  Both these teams are going in different directions, but they’re both still really far apart.  West Virginia hasn’t looked like a protected seed in a while and their resume is slipping (having lost 5 out of their last 6), but they’re still way inside the field.  K-State is right on our bubble, but they’ve been playing pretty good basketball (minus their home loss to Kansas earlier this week).  K-State’s OOC schedule will likely hurt them if they’re on the bubble, so they need to be safely inside of it, and this is the kind of win that can make the difference of whether they make it or not.

-ALABAMA AT FLORIDA (SEC).  Both teams look to be in the field and both have time to improve their resumes between now and the end.  A win today would certainly help.

-FLORIDA STATE AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  Right now we have both teams in the top half of the bracket, but both still have room to improve.  Louisville won the first meeting between these two, which is still one of their biggest wins of the year.  They’re coming off a road loss to Virginia and are looking to rebound.

-CHATTANOOGA AT EAST TENNESSEE STATE (SoCon).  I say this every game, but ETSU’s chances are small.  They are not non-existent.  If they win out, which they are good enough to do, the committee should look at them.

-VERMONT AT UMBC (America East).  Vermont is very close to clinching home court advantage for the America East Tournament, and with just five losses on the season the committee may keep them on the board if they win out but fail to win the conference tourney.  They aren’t likely to select them, but they should at least look at them.

-WESTERN KENTUCKY AT UT-SAN ANTONIO (Conference USA).  Western Kentucky has a good chance of making the field if they win out but lose in the conference tournament.  They can add another road win to their resume tonight.

-OREGON AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve).  Oregon has won three straight, and can put another semi-decent road win on their resume today.  They still have a lot of work to do, but they are moving in the right direction and it isn’t entirely impossible.

-NICHOLLS AT NEW ORLEANS (Southland). Both teams are tied with SFA in the loss column in the Southland – definitely some stakes here since the top 2 teams in the conference get byes into the semifinal of the conference tournament.

-GEORGETOWN AT XAVIER (Big East).  Xavier is on a roll and is solidly on our #2 line.  It’s not impossible to think they can end up as a #1 seed if they can continue to blow through the conference and knock off Villanova in the tournament.  It’s much easier said than done, but it is possible.

-OLE MISS AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Tennessee has had a fantastic season and they seem to keep getting better.  They are actually in contention for a protected seed.  They need to hold serve against an Ole Miss team that has not been good on the road.

-IOWA AT PENN STATE (Big Ten).  They would have to absolutely thunder down the stretch, but Penn State still has a slim chance of playing their way onto the bubble.

-GEORGIA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  Georgia is still right on our bubble and could really use this road win.

-USC AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  USC has lost just two league games, but they still aren’t completely safe.  UCLA is pretty far outside our bubble, but they are a solid NIT team and have shown that they’re capable of beating good teams.  It’s also a rivalry game, so it should be a fun one.

-UTRGV AT NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC).  I think the committee will take New Mexico State if they win out.  They shouldn’t have any real trouble today at home.

-FLORIDA GULF COAST AT JACKSONVILLE (Atlantic Sun).  We mention this one only because if FGCU gets the win they are almost assured getting home court advantage throughout the A-Sun Tournament.

-OKLAHOMA AT TEXAS (Big 12).  The Red River Rivalry! Oklahoma has dropped three out of their last four and the road has not been their friend.  Texas has had their struggles as well.  They typically play well but their resume doesn’t have the big wins on it to indicate they’re a potential protected seed.  Still, if the Horns pull this off at home it would be a huge win, especially when you consider how they’re coming off a close road loss against Texas Tech that would have really boosted their resume.

-CHARLESTON AT HOFSTRA (Colonial). The Cougars passed their first road test at Northeastern earlier in the week and can finally separate themselves a bit from the rest of the conference if they can sweep their weekend roadie.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT CHARLOTTE (Conference USA).  Middle Tennessee is coming off a huge road win at Old Dominion and they are currently squarely on our bubble.  It’s hard to say what the committee will do with them, but their chances are pretty good of making it if they win out but don’t win the conference tournament.

-PITTSBURGH AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  UNC has been slumping recently, but they shouldn’t have too much trouble pulling themselves out of that slump tonight against a Pitt team that’s yet to win a conference road game.  They’ve also yet to win a conference home game.

-UNLV AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  Boise is not in our field, but I can’t help but think the committee will look at them favorably if they continue to win throughout conference play.

-NEVADA AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West).  Nevada fell out of the rankings this week, but they’re still a solid team and should safely make the field if they hold serve in conference the rest of the way.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Indiana is not making the tournament unless they win out, or win the auto-bid, or do something crazy.  But, they have been playing better lately and this is the kind of game that could be a season defining moment for them.  Michigan State is a little thin when it comes to quality wins, so they may not be able to drop that many more games and still end up as a protected seed.  This one, if nothing else, should be a fun one.

-VANDERBILT AT AUBURN (SEC).  Auburn continues to impress, and are now as high as the #2 line on our staff brackets.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble holding serve at home.

-SAINT MARY’S AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast).  Saint Mary’s is kind of a hard team to seed given how weak their schedule is and how they have just one good win, but that one win was REALLY good.  They should still end up in the top half of the bracket if they continue to dominate the league.

-BYU AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  Gonzaga, like Saint Mary’s, is kind of hard to seed, but they should still easily end up in the top half of the bracket if they win out.  They may get a little bit of a test tonight.  Amazingly, Gonzaga’s seniors have NEVER beaten BYU in the Kennel – two of those BYU wins came when Gonzaga was a Top 10 team (including last year when the Zags were #1 and the last undefeated team in early March).

-ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve).  Last, and CERTAINLY not least.  Washington is currently right on the bubble, but they’ve been playing really well and have some quality wins on their resume.  This would certainly be another one and would go a long way toward them moving safely inside the bubble.  Arizona has lost just one game since Thanksgiving, but they have had some close calls.  It’s funny to say this about a team that’s ranked #9th in the nation, but I still don’t think people are taking them as seriously as they should be.