News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Jan 30th

Posted on January 30, 2018 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

CLICK HERE for this week’s Hoops HD Report

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Buffalo and Kent State – CLICK HERE

-Kansas picked up a very impressive win against a very good K State team that was at home and jacked up, Michigan beat Northwestern, and Duke blew Notre Dame off the court in the second half.  That’s really it as far as tournament caliber teams.  But, when you look at all the games from UTR teams yesterday, it may have been the single most exciting day in college basketball history!!

-We had five overtime games, of those five, two were double OT games, and a third was a triple OT game.  Siena knocked off Saint Peter’s in a low scoring 3OT affair, Chattanooga upset UNCG in a double overtime thriller, Fairield pulled off a home upset over Iona in double overtime, Lipscomb avoided a loss to SC Upstate in double overtime, and grambling knocked off Mississippi Valley State in a Centenary stakes game in overtime.  Other action included a missed three point shot at the buzzer by The Citadel that would have knocked off East Tennessee State, Jacksonville hitting two freethrows with less than a second to play to beat Stetson, NJIT almost blowing a 20pt lead but holding on to beat Kennesaw State by 3, and a shot in the final second by Pine Bluff to beat Jackson State by just 2.  Much of this was all happening at the same time.  We recorded the Hoops HD Report (linked above) last night, and it was great fun having all of us online together while all this was going on!  Very little of it really meant anything at all as far as the NCAA Tournament goes, but it was still great!!

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-RHODE ISLAND AT UMASS (Atlantic Ten).  Rhody had a close call against Duquesne and now goes on the road to face their (sort of) rivals.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up another road win, but UMass has played well at home at times.

-INDIANA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Ohio State is looking to rebound from a loss at the buzzer to Penn State that will make it a lot more difficult (but certainly not impossible) to end up as a protected seed.  They’re facing an Indiana team that’s having a rough year.

-NORTH CAROLINA AT CLEMSON (ACC).  North Carolina is coming off a somewhat surprising home loss to NC State, but is still in really good shape overall and should still be able to end up as a protected seed.  Clemson has struggled since losing one of their best players to an injury and barely held on to beat Georgia Tech over the weekend.  They’re at home, but this is still a very tall order.

-FLORIDA AT GEORGIA (SEC).  Florida is finally looking like a protected seed on a close to consistent basis, but they still have some work to do in order to end up with a seed that good.  Winning on the road against a Georgia team that’s on the bubble (and could really use a win like this for that reason) would go a long way.

-TCU AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  After losing at Vanderbilt and being just 3-5 in the conference, this game suddenly has a very pivotal feel for TCU.  They face an Okie State team who also needs to string together some wins, and who has to look at games like this where they’re at home against non-protected seeds as winnable games that they need on their resume.  There is quite a bit at stake for both these teams tonight.

-XAVIER AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East)  Xavier continues to climb the rankings and right now looks like a solid #2 seed who still has an outside shot of ending up on the #1 line.  Saint John’s continues to play like crap in the conference, but they did give the Muskies a bit of a scare when they met earlier this year.

-AUBURN AT OLE MISS (SEC).  We at Hoops HD now think of Auburn as a solid protected seed, and if that’s true then this is the kind of game they should be expected to win.  Not just able to win, but expected to win.  It’s a road game against an NIT caliber team (if that).  Ole Miss has played well at home at times, but it’s still a game that a protected seeded caliber team should win.

-VANDERBILT AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Kentucky is coming off their biggest regular season win in several years and has perhaps turned the corner.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble at home against a Vandy team that currently sits at the bottom of the league.

-ARKANSAS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  It’s certainly not too late for TAMU, but they now have to string together a rather long string of wins in order to end up inside the bubble and in the field.  Arkansas is a pretty strong team, but they’re not exactly at a point to where they can just put it on cruise control either.  This is one of many games that has a pivotal feel to it for both teams.

-NORTHERN NEW MEXICO (nondiv1) AT NEW MEXICO STATE.  Buy game.  And….why????

Posted in News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Jan 30th

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Buffalo at Kent State

Posted on January 30, 2018 by Chad

Buffalo at Kent State, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

The Buffalo Bulls are back in the spotlight again as the Under the Radar Game of the Day returns to the Mid-American Conference tonight.  Tonight’s game at Kent State may be the toughest remaining road test left on the Bulls’ regular season schedule.  Buffalo enters with a record of 16-5 overall and 8-0 in MAC play.  They have solid metrics, with the exception of their RPI — which is flat out amazing at 26.  More realistically, their KPI rating is in the mid-50s and their JNG is in the low 60s.  Leading the way for the Bulls this season has been Nick Perkins, who scored 20 last time out and CJ Massinburg, who has 7 double-doubles on the season.  Also, don’t forget Missouri transfer Wes Clark who has provided this team with even more depth since becoming eligible after the first semester.

Kent State enters tonight’s game at 11-10 overall and 5-3 in MAC play.  The Golden Flashes are coming off an 8 point road win at Central Michigan last time out.  Jaylin Walker and Kevin Zabo both scored over 20 points in that win, while Adonis De La Rosa notched a double-double.  Another strong team effort will be needed tonight if Kent State wants to hand the Bulls their first MAC loss of the season.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Under the Radar Game of the Day: Buffalo at Kent State

The Hoops HD Report: January 29th

Posted on January 29, 2018 by David Griggs

We begin by talking about the turmoil at Michigan State and what impact that could have in both the short-run and the long-run.  From there we review a huge weekend in the ACC with Virginia and NC State both picking up huge road wins.  We talk about whether or not Virginia deserves to be the overall #1 seed, and where NC State might end up in the bracket.  We review all the Big 12/SEC Showcase games and discuss Kentucky’s big win at West Virginia and Alabama’s big win over Oklahoma.  In the American, we look at Cincinnati and discuss whether or not their seed would reflect their current top ten rankings.  All that, and much more…

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

Posted in Hoops HD Report, Podcasts, Videocasts | 1 Comment

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, January 29th

Posted on January 29, 2018 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-We will be recording our Hoops HD Report tonight, and discussing what was a very busy week of college basketball.

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s latest personal Bracket Projections, as well as an explanation of what he did that was completely wrong – CLICK HERE

-Sunday was rather chalky.  Villanova, Purdue, and Michigan State all won road games, but they all had to sweat to do it.  Nova doesn’t look quite the same without Booth, Purdue survived a tremendous effort from rival Indiana, and Michigan State dominated the second half, but needed to come back to beat Maryland.

-Clemson, who is also dealing with injuries, barely escaped Georgia Tech. The Yellowjackets had a shot at the buzzer that would have won them the game.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-EAST TENNESSEE STATE AT THE CITADEL (SoCon).  I’m really starting to like this East Tennessee State team.  Anything short of winning out won’t be enough, and even if they do win out that still may not be enough, but they are for real and the committee should at least look at them if they’re able to win out.

-NOTRE DAME AT DUKE (ACC).  Duke will look to rebound from their loss to Virginia over the weekend.  They face a Notre Dame team that should be feeling rather desperate right now.

-NORTHWESTERN AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Michigan appears to be coasting to the top half of the bracket and shouldn’t have any trouble holding serve against a Northwestern team that needs to pull it together just to make the NIT.

-KANSAS AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12).  K State missed a last second shot that would have won the game the first time these two met.  They’ve been playing extremely well since then and they’re at home tonight in front of a crowd that should be absolutely nuts during this game.  On paper, K State’s NCAA Tournament resume keeps getting better and better, and a win tonight will give it another huge boost.  Kansas, ironically, has really played well on the road this year.  Of their four losses, just one has come in a true road game, and that was at Oklahoma in a game where they led most of the way.  So, it’s hard to even guess what kind of game we may see tonight.

-NEBRASKA AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten).  Nebraska needs to take care of business against all the non-tournament teams remaining on their schedule, and that includes this game tonight.

Posted in News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, January 29th

Under the Radar Game of the Day: North Florida at Florida Gulf Coast

Posted on January 29, 2018 by Chad

North Florida at Florida Gulf Coast, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

Without a true marquee game on the Under the Radar slate tonight, it is time to turn our attention to the Atlantic Sun conference, and one of only a small handful of teams remaining undefeated in conference play – the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles.  Dunk City picked up its 7th conference win of the season on Saturday, beating second place Jacksonville at home by 6 points.  FGCU has now gone through each of its conference opponents once without a loss, and begins the second trip through league play tonight.  Brandon Goodwin continues to excel for this team, as he has scored in double figures in all but two games he has played so far this season.  Also keep an eye on Zach Johnson, who has scored at least 14 in every A-Sun game this year.

Tonight, the Eagles will be hosting cross-state rival North Florida.  The Ospreys enter play at 10-14 overall and 4-3 in the Atlantic Sun.  UNF is only a game behind Jacksonville for second place, and with the conference tournament being played on the campus site of the higher seeded team, could be in line to host at least one if not two games in that event.  The Ospreys had four players in double figures in a loss last week to this same Gulf Coast team, led by 28 from JT Escobar.  Noah Horchler had a double-double with 10 points and 11 boards in that loss, while Ivan Gandia-Rosa dished out 10 assists.  The Ospreys will need another strong team effort — and will need to find a way to stop the Gulf Coast offense — if they want a win tonight.  However, with both teams among the faster Tempo teams in the nation according to KenPom, tonight’s game should be fun, even if the upset does not occur.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Bracket Projection: January 29

Posted on January 28, 2018 by Chad

It is Chad’s turn for the bracket this week, so below is the current field through games of January 28.  Below the brackets you will find the (incorrect) comments by other HoopsHD staffers in which they try to pick apart what is otherwise a perfect bracket.

Notes on this week’s field:

– Virginia has moved to #1 overall after winning at Duke.  Honestly, comparing their profile to Villanova, it is hard to even argue that the Hoos are not the best team.  Six Tier 1 wins, four top 11 wins, and the only loss was early in the year at West Virginia.  This team really is this good, folks.

– Yes, that is Auburn on the 2 line.  I honestly don’t think this team is 2 seed good, but I base the field on profiles, and the Tigers profile is better than all but 7 teams in the field.

– Speaking of SEC teams, after winning the SEC-Big 12 challenge this weekend, two more SEC teams (Tennessee and Florida) have moved up to 4 seeds, with Kentucky right on their heels for a possible fourth.  Arizona, despite winning, was the team that dropped out of being a protected seed, though the Wildcats are likely to move back up as they pile up wins in a weak Pac 12.

– North Carolina State was barely on my radar last week.  North Carolina State is a 9 seed this week.  That is what winning at North Carolina can do for you.  The Wolfpack have four wins over teams that are among the top 20 on my seed list, and that simply cannot be ignored.

– Loyola-Chicago is on my 12 line, but I have them ranked above all four of my First Four teams.  The Ramblers are 18-4 overall, but three of the four losses came during a stretch when one of their top players, Clayton Custer, was out with injury.  Plus, they have the huge win at Florida, a team that just became a 4 seed in my field.  If they win out until the MVC title game, there should be some long discussions about this team in the committee room.

– My last four teams in are, in order, Virginia Tech, Houston, Washington and Syracuse (and yes, I had to hold my nose at that last one).  My top four teams out are, again in order, Middle Tennessee, Utah, Missouri and SMU.  The next four out are UCLA, Boise State, LSU and Texas A&M.  I also considered Oklahoma State, Oregon, Boston College, Georgia and Notre Dame.

HOOPS HD STAFF COMMENTS

Comments from John:

-In regards to overall #1, I agree that Virginia should be here based on merit. I also should emphasize that I am NOT considering Villanova’s injury situation for the purpose of this exercise.

-It’s not far fetched to see Tennessee and Florida eeking out protected seeds over teams like Seton Hall, Kentucky and Arizona. Putting Florida State this high requires a lot more imagination that I can provide at this point. I blame Ohio State’s losing to Penn State for the Noles being placed this high.

-I almost want to flip-flop TCU and Miami at this point. TCU was finally given the keys to a Porsche after their win at West Virginia gave their profile some legitimacy with a protected seed win. Unfortunately, the Porsche got keyed when they lost at Vandy. As for Miami, they have home wins against Louisville and Florida State that are respectable, and their win against Middle Tennessee is also a solid one in Hawaii. They also won at NC State, and that win is rapidly looking better by the day.

-As for the Wolfpack, they are a team that Chad is correct to put in the NCAA field. Maybe not as high as a 9 categorically, but I’d argue they are certainly playing better than anyone else below them right now. Four protected-seed quality wins (v. Arizona, Duke, Clemson, at North Carolina) will do that for you.

-Syracuse. Syracuse. Syracuse. It was one thing to make a case for them last year when they were beating big-name teams at home despite a putrid record away from home. They were a little smarter in scheduling buy games this year, but it doesn’t solve their pressing need to a)win games against solid NCAA Tournament teams (not just bubblish teams) and b)winning games away from home. They’re going to have to do a lot more than just beat UConn, Georgetown and Pittsburgh away from home. (As our colleague Rocco Miller noted on Twitter, Chad probably couldn’t resist the temptation to have a Jim Boeheim/Mike Hopkins First Four matchup.)

-As I’ve said before, you also better come with an alternative in mind when said bubble team is discussed. Oklahoma State also makes me cringe a little, but at least they have some noteworthy wins (Florida State on a neutral court, Oklahoma and Texas) versus only one bad loss (at Baylor) so far this season.

Chad’s Reply:

– I have seen very little love for this Florida State profile and John criticizes my decision to give them a 5 seed.  However, take a close look at this team and I am not seeing them as low as others say they are.  The Noles have five “Tier 1” wins all over teams that made my field, including a road win at 4 seed Florida and a home win over 3 seed North Carolina.  Three of their five losses were against teams wearing white in the first round (at Duke, at Miami, home to Louisville).  Their other two were at Boston College (which is a lot more respectable this year) and on a neutral court to the Oklahoma State team that John wants me to put in.  Almost every metric is in the low to mid 20’s, which would have them in the 5-6 seed range.  Six road/neutral wins.  Compare that to a team like Michigan with only two Tier 1 wins, and two losses to teams not even meriting serious consideration.  Michigan won at Michigan State and at Texas.  That may be marginally better than winning at Florida and at Va Tech — however, Florida State has home wins over UNC, Miami and Syracuse that Michigan can only counter with home wins over Maryland and UCLA.  Their losses are close to equal.  Their metrics and SOS are close to equal.  At the end off the day, if Florida State had not beaten North Carolina at home, these two profiles would be almost dead-on even.  But Florida State did beat Carolina at home.  They have a better profile.  End of story.

DAVID’S COMMENTS

-Chad made some mistakes, but fortunately I am here to fix them for him.

-I cannot fathom not having Kansas on the #1 line.  I guess being 4-1 in true road games with wins at TCU and West Virginia just aren’t doing it for Chad.  He’s more impressed by a team that’s lost at Boston College.  Yeah, that makes sense!  And they say I’M the one that needs to stop drinking!!

-I thought people would say I was overseeding Auburn when I had them on my #3 line last week.  I guess Chad wouldn’t feel that way.  He’s got them on the #2 line.  Although I wouldn’t have them quite that high, I don’t think Chad is completely wrong by having them up there.  The Tigers are definitely for real.

-Clemson is dealing with an injury to a key player, was run off the floor by Virginia, and barely won at Georgia Tech by just one more point than what Grambling won by.  So, naturally, Chad has them as a protected seed!  Arizona, who has lost just one game post Thanksgiving, is not protected.

-I do like that he has Western Kentucky on the #10 line.  I hope the real committee looks at this team as well.  They have limited bad losses, one of which was due to a really bad call at the end of the Wisconsin game, and they have a massive neutral win against Purdue.

-I’d like to thank Chad for verifying in his write-up who the last four teams in the field are.  Geez, that would have been tough to figure out!!

And, why the hell is SYRACUSE one of those teams??  I guess they are red hot right now!  Following a four game losing streak, they managed to win three straight against Pitt, BC, and Pitt again!  WOW!  Syracuse has done what any team in the top half of the Southland would have been able to do!  Beat Pitt twice!!  Now, they do have an abundance of home wins against likely NIT teams.  At least a team like Boise State has a smattering of wins against NIT teams away from home!  Middle Tennessee would have been a much better choice.  In fact if Syracuse and Middle Tennessee were to play on equal terms, I think MTSU would win rather easily.  Their win at Western Kentucky is, by itself, better than anything Syracuse has done.

Posted in Bracketology | Comments Off on Bracket Projection: January 29