Under the Radar Game of the Day: North Florida at Florida Gulf Coast

Posted on January 29, 2018 by Chad

North Florida at Florida Gulf Coast, 7:00 PM Eastern, espn3

Without a true marquee game on the Under the Radar slate tonight, it is time to turn our attention to the Atlantic Sun conference, and one of only a small handful of teams remaining undefeated in conference play – the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles.  Dunk City picked up its 7th conference win of the season on Saturday, beating second place Jacksonville at home by 6 points.  FGCU has now gone through each of its conference opponents once without a loss, and begins the second trip through league play tonight.  Brandon Goodwin continues to excel for this team, as he has scored in double figures in all but two games he has played so far this season.  Also keep an eye on Zach Johnson, who has scored at least 14 in every A-Sun game this year.

Tonight, the Eagles will be hosting cross-state rival North Florida.  The Ospreys enter play at 10-14 overall and 4-3 in the Atlantic Sun.  UNF is only a game behind Jacksonville for second place, and with the conference tournament being played on the campus site of the higher seeded team, could be in line to host at least one if not two games in that event.  The Ospreys had four players in double figures in a loss last week to this same Gulf Coast team, led by 28 from JT Escobar.  Noah Horchler had a double-double with 10 points and 11 boards in that loss, while Ivan Gandia-Rosa dished out 10 assists.  The Ospreys will need another strong team effort — and will need to find a way to stop the Gulf Coast offense — if they want a win tonight.  However, with both teams among the faster Tempo teams in the nation according to KenPom, tonight’s game should be fun, even if the upset does not occur.

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Bracket Projection: January 29

Posted on January 28, 2018 by Chad

It is Chad’s turn for the bracket this week, so below is the current field through games of January 28.  Below the brackets you will find the (incorrect) comments by other HoopsHD staffers in which they try to pick apart what is otherwise a perfect bracket.

Notes on this week’s field:

– Virginia has moved to #1 overall after winning at Duke.  Honestly, comparing their profile to Villanova, it is hard to even argue that the Hoos are not the best team.  Six Tier 1 wins, four top 11 wins, and the only loss was early in the year at West Virginia.  This team really is this good, folks.

– Yes, that is Auburn on the 2 line.  I honestly don’t think this team is 2 seed good, but I base the field on profiles, and the Tigers profile is better than all but 7 teams in the field.

– Speaking of SEC teams, after winning the SEC-Big 12 challenge this weekend, two more SEC teams (Tennessee and Florida) have moved up to 4 seeds, with Kentucky right on their heels for a possible fourth.  Arizona, despite winning, was the team that dropped out of being a protected seed, though the Wildcats are likely to move back up as they pile up wins in a weak Pac 12.

– North Carolina State was barely on my radar last week.  North Carolina State is a 9 seed this week.  That is what winning at North Carolina can do for you.  The Wolfpack have four wins over teams that are among the top 20 on my seed list, and that simply cannot be ignored.

– Loyola-Chicago is on my 12 line, but I have them ranked above all four of my First Four teams.  The Ramblers are 18-4 overall, but three of the four losses came during a stretch when one of their top players, Clayton Custer, was out with injury.  Plus, they have the huge win at Florida, a team that just became a 4 seed in my field.  If they win out until the MVC title game, there should be some long discussions about this team in the committee room.

– My last four teams in are, in order, Virginia Tech, Houston, Washington and Syracuse (and yes, I had to hold my nose at that last one).  My top four teams out are, again in order, Middle Tennessee, Utah, Missouri and SMU.  The next four out are UCLA, Boise State, LSU and Texas A&M.  I also considered Oklahoma State, Oregon, Boston College, Georgia and Notre Dame.

HOOPS HD STAFF COMMENTS

Comments from John:

-In regards to overall #1, I agree that Virginia should be here based on merit. I also should emphasize that I am NOT considering Villanova’s injury situation for the purpose of this exercise.

-It’s not far fetched to see Tennessee and Florida eeking out protected seeds over teams like Seton Hall, Kentucky and Arizona. Putting Florida State this high requires a lot more imagination that I can provide at this point. I blame Ohio State’s losing to Penn State for the Noles being placed this high.

-I almost want to flip-flop TCU and Miami at this point. TCU was finally given the keys to a Porsche after their win at West Virginia gave their profile some legitimacy with a protected seed win. Unfortunately, the Porsche got keyed when they lost at Vandy. As for Miami, they have home wins against Louisville and Florida State that are respectable, and their win against Middle Tennessee is also a solid one in Hawaii. They also won at NC State, and that win is rapidly looking better by the day.

-As for the Wolfpack, they are a team that Chad is correct to put in the NCAA field. Maybe not as high as a 9 categorically, but I’d argue they are certainly playing better than anyone else below them right now. Four protected-seed quality wins (v. Arizona, Duke, Clemson, at North Carolina) will do that for you.

-Syracuse. Syracuse. Syracuse. It was one thing to make a case for them last year when they were beating big-name teams at home despite a putrid record away from home. They were a little smarter in scheduling buy games this year, but it doesn’t solve their pressing need to a)win games against solid NCAA Tournament teams (not just bubblish teams) and b)winning games away from home. They’re going to have to do a lot more than just beat UConn, Georgetown and Pittsburgh away from home. (As our colleague Rocco Miller noted on Twitter, Chad probably couldn’t resist the temptation to have a Jim Boeheim/Mike Hopkins First Four matchup.)

-As I’ve said before, you also better come with an alternative in mind when said bubble team is discussed. Oklahoma State also makes me cringe a little, but at least they have some noteworthy wins (Florida State on a neutral court, Oklahoma and Texas) versus only one bad loss (at Baylor) so far this season.

Chad’s Reply:

– I have seen very little love for this Florida State profile and John criticizes my decision to give them a 5 seed.  However, take a close look at this team and I am not seeing them as low as others say they are.  The Noles have five “Tier 1” wins all over teams that made my field, including a road win at 4 seed Florida and a home win over 3 seed North Carolina.  Three of their five losses were against teams wearing white in the first round (at Duke, at Miami, home to Louisville).  Their other two were at Boston College (which is a lot more respectable this year) and on a neutral court to the Oklahoma State team that John wants me to put in.  Almost every metric is in the low to mid 20’s, which would have them in the 5-6 seed range.  Six road/neutral wins.  Compare that to a team like Michigan with only two Tier 1 wins, and two losses to teams not even meriting serious consideration.  Michigan won at Michigan State and at Texas.  That may be marginally better than winning at Florida and at Va Tech — however, Florida State has home wins over UNC, Miami and Syracuse that Michigan can only counter with home wins over Maryland and UCLA.  Their losses are close to equal.  Their metrics and SOS are close to equal.  At the end off the day, if Florida State had not beaten North Carolina at home, these two profiles would be almost dead-on even.  But Florida State did beat Carolina at home.  They have a better profile.  End of story.

DAVID’S COMMENTS

-Chad made some mistakes, but fortunately I am here to fix them for him.

-I cannot fathom not having Kansas on the #1 line.  I guess being 4-1 in true road games with wins at TCU and West Virginia just aren’t doing it for Chad.  He’s more impressed by a team that’s lost at Boston College.  Yeah, that makes sense!  And they say I’M the one that needs to stop drinking!!

-I thought people would say I was overseeding Auburn when I had them on my #3 line last week.  I guess Chad wouldn’t feel that way.  He’s got them on the #2 line.  Although I wouldn’t have them quite that high, I don’t think Chad is completely wrong by having them up there.  The Tigers are definitely for real.

-Clemson is dealing with an injury to a key player, was run off the floor by Virginia, and barely won at Georgia Tech by just one more point than what Grambling won by.  So, naturally, Chad has them as a protected seed!  Arizona, who has lost just one game post Thanksgiving, is not protected.

-I do like that he has Western Kentucky on the #10 line.  I hope the real committee looks at this team as well.  They have limited bad losses, one of which was due to a really bad call at the end of the Wisconsin game, and they have a massive neutral win against Purdue.

-I’d like to thank Chad for verifying in his write-up who the last four teams in the field are.  Geez, that would have been tough to figure out!!

And, why the hell is SYRACUSE one of those teams??  I guess they are red hot right now!  Following a four game losing streak, they managed to win three straight against Pitt, BC, and Pitt again!  WOW!  Syracuse has done what any team in the top half of the Southland would have been able to do!  Beat Pitt twice!!  Now, they do have an abundance of home wins against likely NIT teams.  At least a team like Boise State has a smattering of wins against NIT teams away from home!  Middle Tennessee would have been a much better choice.  In fact if Syracuse and Middle Tennessee were to play on equal terms, I think MTSU would win rather easily.  Their win at Western Kentucky is, by itself, better than anything Syracuse has done.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 28th

Posted on January 28, 2018 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

CLICK HERE for Jon Teitel’s latest seedlist and Bracket Projections

CLICK HERE for Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Bucknell and Boston University at The Roof

-Yesterday was a hugely crazy day.  Virginia now holds what seems to be the single most impressive win in all of college basketball as they went into Duke, and pretty much controlled the game from tip to Buzzer.  For much of the game the Hoos had a double digit lead, but Duke did come back and pull even, and actually had the chance to get the lead in the final minute due to some uncharacteristically poor free throw shooting from Virginia.  This is, without question, a #1 seed caliber win for Virginia.

-They weren’t the only ones that got a huge win.  NC State went into Chapel Hill (which is rumored to be just eight miles away from Duke), and picked up a major upset win.  When a bubble team wins on the road against a protected seed caliber team, they oftentimes cease being bubble teams and begin being solid tournament teams.  NC State has some warts on their resume, but they also have a win against Duke and a road win at North Carolina (along with a win against Arizona in the Battle 4 Atlantis).  That’s pretty good.

-Kentucky, like a lot of young and talented teams, have been inconsistent this year.  Yesterday at West Virginia was the perfect example.  They were awful for much of the first half and absolutely fantastic at all other times.  Kentucky picks up what is easily their best win of the year, but they did so after falling down to a really good defensive team by 17 in the first half, and on the road against a crowd that was bonkers, but yet somehow had the poise to come back and win.  This may be a moment where Kentucky really kicks it into gear and comes thundering down the stretch.

-Arizona picked up another win!  But, it wasn’t easy and it wasn’t without a little controversy.  Utah played extremely well and had a shot at the end of the game to win it, but it was blocked and Arizona came up with it.  On the playground there is no way it’s a foul.  On the court…some refs would have whistled it.  Others wouldn’t.  This one didn’t.  Game over.

-Alabama got another big win at home against Oklahoma.  The Crimson Tide have been off and on throughout the year, but they are certainly on right now and are showing signs that they are going to stay on the rest of the way.

-Texas Tech picked up a really nice road win at South Carolina that was probably tougher to get than how it will look on their resume.  The Gamecocks have been playing well lately and they played well again yesterday despite the loss.

-Arizona State finally held serve and beat Colorado.  We normally don’t mention chalk in our news and notes, but this is worth mentioning because of how often Arizona State had been failing to do that lately.

-Rhode Island beat Duquense as you would expect.  Despite trailing the Dukes by as many as 15 points during the game, they beat them at the buzzer, which you would not expect, but they did get the win and remain unbeaten in A10 play.

-Kansas State had more trouble with Georgia than I thought they would, but they ended up pulling it out at home and continue to build what looks like will end up being a tournament caliber resume.

-Florida State picked up a nice win at home against a Miami team that still appears to be okay, but who’s resume still looks a little anemic and in need of a protein boost at some point.

-Arkansas held off Oklahoma State in a thriller.  Oklahoma State has yet to win a road game, and although they’ve played well and had some big wins they didn’t look like they had it in them to hang with a team on the road that’s likely to end up in the top half of the bracket.  It was a really good effort by the Pokes and they’ll certainly have other opportunities in conference to get some big wins.

-It was also the first time that the SEC came out victorious in the SEC-Big 12 challenge; they won 6 out of the 10 games yesterday.

-East Tennessee State picked up a nice road win at Wofford, and at 18-4 with one of those four losses being at Xavier in the final minute after they pretty much blew a 22-pointt second half lead, you kinda gotta wonder about ETSU.

-Virginia Tech got a nice road win at Notre Dame.  Things are looking a little better for VA Tech, who still has work to do, and a little worse for Notre Dame, who now has even more work to do.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-VILLANOVA AT MARQUETTE (Big East).  Villanova must deal with the injury of Phil Booth.  They didn’t have a whole lot of depth, and now they have even less.  It will be interesting to see what they do today against this Marquette team on the road.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Michigan State is taking a bath in the press (and understandably so) for the sexual assault issues that have come to surface.  It’s hard to say how that will effect them for the rest of the season.  It is important to point out the obvious, and that’s none of the current players had anything to do with it, but they are still being forced to play within the cloud of criticism that engulfs that whole school right now.  On paper, Michigan State is gunning for a protected seed, and Maryland needs to string together some wins just to earn a spot in the field.

-EAST CAROLINA AT SMU (American).  This is a virtual buy game for an SMU team that still has a lot of work to do.  If they end up blowing this one, then they’ll have even more work to do.

-WAGNER AT ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast). It’s a two-team race for the top and the winner claims sole possession of first place in the conference. In the NEC, that means homecourt for the entirety of the conference tournament, so there are huge stakes here. Wagner won the first matchup between both teams last week.

-OAKLAND AT WRIGHT STATE (Horizon). Oakland got a huge win at Northern Kentucky and a win for the Golden Grizzlies today would them right back into the conference race. A win by Wright State would keep the Raiders in sole possession of the Horizon lead.

-SOUTH FLORIDA AT HOUSTON (American).  Houston is a fringe bubble team with a small margin for error.  Losing at home to a weak team is certainly outside said margin for error.

-PURDUE AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Purdue is red hot and should end up on the #1 line if they keep it up.  Indiana has had a pretty rough year, but they are at home and it is a rivalry game so you don’t want to just completely count them out.

-CALIFORNIA AT USC (Pac Twelve).  USC has been playing really well in the last few weeks and should end up inside the bubble if they keep it up.

-SETON HALL AT DEPAUL (Big East).  This is perhaps the most winnable conference road game that Seton Hall has on the schedule, and they need to take care of business and pick up the W.

-NORTHERN IOWA AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Missouri Valley).  At 17-4 overall and with a pretty big win on their resume at Florida, the selection committee should give Loyola a serious look if they’re able to win out.  Northern Iowa had some nice wins OOC as well.  In conference, well, not so much.

-TULSA AT WICHITA STATE (American).  Wichita has had their struggles, but they should still end up on the top half of the bracket very easily if they’re able to hold serve in games like this.

-CLEMSON AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC).  Clemson is still adjusting to life without Dante Grantham, so we can’t just think that any given game will be easy for them.  They face a Georgia Tech team that isn’t anywhere near the field, but that has played really well at home on occasion.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve).  I’m really big on Washington’s tournament chances and think they’ll end up in the field if they finish strong.  That would certainly involve taking care of business against a rival Wazzu team that’s been awful since league play began.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 28th

Bracketology 2018: March Madness Predictions (Version 5)

Posted on January 28, 2018 by Jon Teitel

We are only 6 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we begin to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked every single 1 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, 63 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 43 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 11th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 4th out of 113 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: Purdue (Big 10)
1: Virginia (ACC)
1: Duke (ACC)

2: Kansas (Big 12)
2: Xavier (Big East)
2: North Carolina (ACC)
2: West Virginia (Big 12)

3: Auburn (SEC)
3: Oklahoma (Big 12)
3: Michigan State (Big 10)
3: Clemson (ACC)

4: Arizona (Pac-12)
4: Cincinnati (AAC)
4: Texas Tech (Big 12)
4: Ohio State (Big 10)

5: Tennessee (SEC)
5: Florida (SEC)
5: Kentucky (SEC)
5: Seton Hall (Big East)

6: Wichita State (AAC)
6: Rhode Island (A-10)
6: Arizona State (Pac-12)
6: Creighton (Big East)

7: TCU (Big 12)
7: Gonzaga (WCC)
7: Louisville (ACC)
7: Miami FL (ACC)

8: Nevada (MWC)
8: Michigan (Big 10)
8: Florida State (ACC)
8: St. Mary’s (WCC)

9: Arkansas (SEC)
9: Butler (Big East)
9: Texas (Big 12)
9: Alabama (SEC)

10: Texas A&M (SEC)
10: Providence (Big East)
10: Kansas State (Big 12)
10: USC (Pac-12)

11: Marquette (Big East)
11: Houston (AAC)
11: SMU (AAC)
11: Syracuse (ACC)
11: Missouri (SEC)
11: Notre Dame (ACC)

12: Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
12: New Mexico State (WAC)
12: Buffalo (MAC)
12: Loyola-Chicago (MVC)

13: Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)
13: South Dakota State (Summit)
13: East Tennessee State (SoCon)
13: Vermont (America East)

14: Belmont (OVC)
14: Wright State (Horizon)
14: Northeastern (CAA)
14: Montana (Big Sky)

15: Bucknell (Patriot)
15: Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: Canisius (MAAC)
15: Hawaii (Big West)

16: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
16: Penn (Ivy)
16: Radford (Big South)
16: Wagner (NEC)
16: North Carolina A&T (MEAC)
16: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC)

Posted in Bracketology | 2 Comments

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Bucknell at Boston University

Posted on January 28, 2018 by Chad

Bucknell at Boston University, 12:00 PM Eastern, CBS Sports Network

The Under the Radar Game of the Day comes to us from Boston this afternoon as the top two teams in the Patriot League square off.  Bucknell had been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation during the early part of the season, suffering surprising losses to the likes of Monmouth, Northeastern, VCU and even an early conference game at home to Boston U.  However, the Bison, a team that won 25 games last season, pushed West Virginia to the wire in the NCAA Tournament, and brought back almost every piece of that team, seem to have finally turned things around.  Bucknell has won 7 straight games including a solid 10 point road win at Navy earlier this week.  Stephen Brown scored 27 points while Zach Thomas had a double-double in that victory.

The Terriers of Boston University started the conference season at the top following their road win at Bucknell.  Unfortunately, they suffered a pair of disappointing losses, most notably a home loss to last place American 11 days ago.  The Terriers can bounce right back today, however, as a home win will tie them for first place with the Bison and give them the tiebreaker edge with the season sweep.  Keep an eye on Tyler Scanlon in today’s game, as he was a key to the earlier win at Bucknell.  Scanlon recorded a double-double with 14 points and 10 boards in that victory.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Satuday, Jan 27th

Posted on January 27, 2018 by David Griggs

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between NC Central and NC A&T – CLICK HERE

-NC STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  UNC v Duke is the bigger rivalry in terms of importance and pageantry and all that good stuff, but there are times I think that this one is actually more bitter even if it doesn’t mean as much on paper.  NC State is outside the bubble, but they are perhaps close enough to it to reach it, and if they were somehow able to win this one it would volt them inside of it.  North Carolina is ranked in the top ten and seems to be cruising toward a protected seed.

-TEXAS TECH AT SOUTH CAROLINA (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  This isn’t the game that most have circled, but it is perhaps the one I’m looking forward to the most.  South Carolina has been on fire the last two weeks with wins against Kentucky, and on the road against Georgia and Florida.  They’re at home today and have a very good chance at knocking off another ranked team in Texas Tech, that is (for now) solidly in the protected seed range.

-BAYLOR AT FLORIDA (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  This game looked a lot more attractive in November than it does now.  Florida is very inconsistent, but all and all has a much better profile than Baylor.

-DUQUESNE AT RHODE ISLAND (Atlantic Ten).  If Rhody continues to hold serve in league play, which pretty much means winning all their games, they should cruise into the top half of the bracket.

-VIRGINIA AT DUKE (ACC).  This isn’t just a game between two protected seeds, it’s a game between two teams that could end up on the #1 line.  If Virginia gets this then it would be their biggest win of the season, and perhaps the biggest singular win on any team’s resume all season long.  It should be a fun one.

-OLE MISS AT TEXAS (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  Texas is solidly in the field and should be able to hold serve in this one.  Ole Miss’s next road win will be their first.

-GEORGIA AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  This is a very bubblish game, and it’s odd you get an OOC game at this juncture in the year between two bubble teams.  K-State seems to be on the rise, whereas Georgia seems to be back pedaling.

-OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  This is far from the easiest road game for Oklahoma, but it’s also not their first rodeo on the road.  Every game is a big game when you’re trying to land on the top two lines like Oklahoma is, and every game is a big game when you’re trying to cement yourself inside the bubble the way Alabama is, so this is a big game.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT BUTLER (Big East).  Butler appears to be safely on their way, but in a tough conference like the Big East teams need to make sure they take care of business in the easier, more winnable games.

-TROY AT LOUISIANA (Sun Belt).  I don’t think the committee will take Louisiana without the automatic bid even if they win out, but if they end the season with just three losses they will probably at least look at them.

-DAYTON AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic 10). While this game has no tournament implications whatsoever, this is the first installment of this year’s Arch Baron Cup. In the absence of a real rivalry like Xavier/Dayton, this is what Flyer fans get up for.

-TENNESSEE AT IOWA STATE (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  I like what this Tennessee team has been able to do this year and this is a chance for them to add one more OOC road win to their resume.

-MIAMI FL AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC).  It’s a rivalry game between two solid tournament teams who definitely have room to vamp up their resumes between now and the end of the year.  This will be a nice win both on and off paper for whoever pulls it off.

-SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC).  Syracuse is outside the bubble and needs to make sure they win their road games against weak teams.  Pitt’s next ACC Win will be their first.

-TCU AT VANDERBILT (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  This is a very winnable road game for a TCU team that could probably benefit from a true road win right about now.

-TEXAS A&M AT KANSAS (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  Prior to TAMU going off the rails it was looking like this would be a game between two top ten teams.  Now it’s looking like it may be a mauling where the end result is closer to looking like a buy game than it is a showcase game.  TAMU is in all kinds of trouble.  Winning at Kansas would certainly help, but it may be way over their heads at this point.

-UTAH AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve).  Utah picked up a big win against at Arizona State on Thursday night, but still has a lot of ground to cover before they become a team that the committee would seriously consider.  Now having said that, winning at Arizona would certainly cover a lot of ground.  Arizona just keeps winning.  They’re 17-1 in non-exempt tournament games!

-CINCINNATI AT MEMPHIS (American).  Cincinnati keeps winning and winning and winning.  The problem is that while they have a lot of decent wins, they don’t really have any good wins against a team that’s likely to make the NCAA Tournament (at least not yet) and winning tonight won’t change that.

-LSU AT AUBURN (SEC).  LSU is a bubble team.  Auburn is on the fringe of a protected seed.  There is quite a bit to be gained by both teams in this one.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT ARKANSAS (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  Oklahoma State has been playing a lot better and although we still have them outside our bubble, they are getting closer and closer to it.  They’ll certainly have multiple opportunities at big wins the rest of the way.  Arkansas looks like a solid tournament team that can continue to pad their resume.

-KENTUCKY AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12/SEC Showcase).  West Virginia clearly appears to have all the advantages here.  They are the better team and they are at home.  I still think West Virginia is a solid top ten team that could possibly end up on the #1 line if they absolutely thunder down the stretch, but they’ll have to do more than what they’ve done up to this point and they can’t afford to lose games like this.  No one is really thinking of Kentucky as a protected seed, but a win in this game would go a long way toward changing that thinking.

-SAINT JOSPEH’S AT PENN (Big Five).  Penn looks to be tops in the Ivy League and although they are likely headed toward the #16 line, they have still had a good year and I like their chances of grabbing a Big Five win tonight.

-IONA VS MANHATTAN (Metro Atlantic, Nassau Coliseum).  This is one of the great UTR rivalries in the entire country, and we may be robbed of this edition of it.  Unless you buy a ticket you won’t see it.  I don’t believe it is being televised or streamed anywhere.  So, I say we take a long piss on whoever it is that’s responsible for not making this game available!!

-JACKONVILLE AT FLORIDA GULF COAST (Atlantic Sun).  We highlight this game only because the A-Sun plays its conference tournament at campus sites, and the winner of this game will be in first place going into the second half of conference play.

-UTEP AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA).  Middle Tennessee’s at-large hopes are barely flickering, but they are at least flickering a little bit.  They need to win out.  It’s pretty much as simple as that.

-MARSHALL AT WESTERN KENTUCKY (Conference USA).  Western KY is in slightly better shape than Middle Tennessee despite the fact that they lost at home last week.  I think that win against Purdue is going to go a long way for the Toppers.  But, like Middle Tennessee, they need to win out or come very close to winning out.

-SAN FRANCISCO AT GONZAGA (West Coast).  Other than the home loss to Saint Mary’s Gonzaga is on fire and rolling through the West Coast Conference.  That should continue tonight.

-COLORADO AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve).  Arizona State really needs to win this game.  Holy crap they need to win this game.  I mean….WOW, do they need to win this game!  They were amazing out of conference.  They’re just 3-5 in conference play, and this league isn’t exactly Murderer’s row.  Many of those five losses have been to sub-tournament level teams, and a few of them have come at home.

-VIRGINIA TECH AT NOTRE DAME (ACC).  Some VERY bubblicous action coming to you from the ACC tonight!  Both of these teams have a lot of work to do, and both could really use this win tonight.

-WAKE FOREST AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  Louisville is coming off a loss in an overtime thriller that was probably more frustrating than it was damaging.  They’re still in good shape, they still look to be improving as the year goes on, and they should be able to pick up this conference win at home.

-IOWA AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten).  There isn’t a whole lot of meat on Nebraska’s profile, but they have a long stretch of winnable games ahead of them and if they hold serve in all of them they should get the committee’s attention.

-OREGON STATE AT OREGON (Pac Twelve).  This game probably has bigger NIT implications than NCAA implications, but both teams have looked good at times, and it is a rivalry game, and on the rare occasion that both teams are at least decent it’s a fun game to watch.

-GEORGETOWN AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  Creighton is cruising toward the top half of the bracket and should be able to hold serve at home tonight.

-NEW MEXICO STATE AT UMKC (WAC).  If New Mexico State runs the table in WAC play then I think they’ll make the field regardless of what happens in the WAC Tourney.

-MISSOURI AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  Mizzou is squarely on the bubble and this is the kind of road win that could really help them out.  Mississippi State probably won’t make the field, but they’re still a tough team to beat on the road and the committee (should) realize that.

-BOISE STATE AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West).  I like this Boise State team.  I think they’re good.  They do lack the big win against a tournament caliber team, but there are teams ranked in the top ten (one in particular) that also lack the big win against a tournament caliber team.  I think they’ll be able to hold serve in league play and if they do then I hope the committee takes them.  If the Broncos don’t hold serve, then screw ’em.

-STANFORD AT UCLA (Pac Twelve).  Unless these two teams can string together a long string of wins, they’ll be playing in the NIT and watching the NCAA on television.

-PORTLAND AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast).  The win against Gonzaga really boosted SMC’s profile.  They should skate into the field and even land in the top half of the bracket, so long as they are able to hold serve.

-CAL STATE FULLERTON AT HAWAI’I (Big West).  Hawaii is 4-1 and tied for first place in the Big West!!  It’s a 1am tip!!  We were robbed of a 24 hr Hoops Marathon this year, but because of this game we have a 15 hr marathon today!!  I expect all of you to be up and watching this game!!  If you’re not watching this, then you’re not a real hoops fan!!  MANDATE!

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