News, Notes and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, January 23rd

Posted on January 23, 2018 by John Stalica

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day featuring #MACtion between Toledo and Western Michigan – CLICK HERE

For last night’s weekly Hoops HD Report podcast – CLICK HERE

NEWS AND NOTES

-Last night in college hoops, there were three teams that showed up with a sense of urgency and came out with signature wins. First was Virginia Tech – they played their first game on ESPN’s Big Monday and pulled away in the 2nd half with an 80-69 win over North Carolina. The lead ballooned to as many as 19 points before North Carolina made the margin a little more respectable. The Hokies badly needed this win and will try to get some momentum going into a 2-game road trip that includes stops at Notre Dame and Boston College.

-Another team making their debut on Big Monday was TCU – they trailed by as many as 9 points in the first half before going on a late run and pulling away in the 2nd half with an 82-73 victory over West Virginia. With or without Jaylen Fisher, it was a much-needed win against a protected seed that the Horned Frogs added to their profile. West Virginia ended up falling into a tie for 2nd place with Kansas State – the Wildcats were able to beat Baylor 90-83 to earn their 3rd straight win in league play. Baylor is now in deep hibernation and the Wildcats are creeping closer to the NCAA Tournament bubble. Texas also earned a season sweep of Iowa State with a 73-57 win in Austin last night.

-With Maryland losing at Indiana last night, it is looking more and more like the Big 10 may end up only getting 4 bids this year – Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State have separated themselves from the pack by a country mile. While Michigan State cruised to a win at Illinois last night, Ohio State trailed last night for almost as long as their first eight games COMBINED in Big Ten play. However, Nebraska’s upset bid fell short as Ohio State pulled away late with a 64-59 victory.

-Under the radar, North Carolina A&T made a furious comeback in regulation – they trailed Howard by 10 points with 3:58 to go. The Aggies went on a 17-7 run (including a buzzer beater basket) to send the game into OT, but an unfazed Howard team ended up winning by 2 points. A&T was unable to get a shot off in the final 6 seconds after Howard missed a pair of FTs. The end result is that North Carolina A&T lost their first MEAC game and puts Bethune-Cookman in sole possession of first place.

-In the SWAC, a wild finish between Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas Southern took place – Martaveous McKnight scored 5 points in the final 3 seconds to give Pine Bluff a victory at Texas Southern. McKnight started with a 3-point shot while being fouled to tie the game at 72-72. Following a technical foul by TSU coach Mike Davis, McKnight hit 1 of 2 technical free throws and completed the and-1 to give Pine Bluff a 74-72 victory.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-PROVIDENCE AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Following a pair of decisive wins at also-rans Georgetown and UConn, Villanova returns to Philly to take on a very bubblish Providence team at the Wells Fargo Center. The Friars are one of only 3 teams that have won at Villanova since the formation of the new Big East.

-ARKANSAS AT GEORGIA (SEC). Both teams come into this game at 3-4 in the SEC – while the Razorbacks beat Ole Miss at home last Saturday, Arkansas has a slightly higher sense of urgency in that they have not won a game away from home in about a month (and that was a win against Troy). Georgia is coming off of a tough loss at Auburn over the weekend.

-KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12 – Spotlight Game). This is one of the best games you will see on paper all season long. Kansas is arguably the best team in the country when it comes to playing away from home. Oklahoma is coming off of 2 straight losses against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. As wonderful a player as Trae Young has been for the Sooners, he can’t be just a one-man show if OU is going to stop the bleeding at home tonight.

-CLEMSON AT VIRGINIA (ACC). This is the Tigers’ first major test without Donte Grantham in their lineup. By the same token, this also gives Virginia an opportunity to add a quality win to their profile that has more than enough quantity at the moment. They can also separate themselves further from the ACC – they currently lead Louisville by a game and a half in the standings. Everyone else has at least 2 losses in the ACC so far.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). Speaking of teams looking to stop the bleeding, the Red Raiders have lost 2 straight games that included a loss at Texas and a bad loss at Iowa State where they were not very competitive. Oklahoma State has momentum after beating Oklahoma at home, but now have a difficult 2-game road trip that includes TX Tech and Arkansas this weekend. They could really use at least one road win on this trip to get more NCAA Tournament consideration.

-VANDERBILT AT TENNESSEE (SEC). It’s been a while since the Vols have swept the season series with Vanderbilt, but they should be able to hold serve at home tonight. Tennessee is also coming off of a win against an improving South Carolina squad.

-WISCONSIN AT IOWA (Big 10). I can only conclude that ESPN2 is airing this at 7 tonight to help ensure that more people are watching Kansas-Oklahoma instead. As the Puppet would say, you may want to put a parental lock on this game.

-DAVIDSON AT DAYTON (A-10). Davidson is an explosive enough offensive team that should be able to win in an environment that is normally a very tough one. However, we just don’t know which Dayton team shows up night in and night out this season.

-MISSOURI STATE AT BRADLEY (Missouri Valley). Both teams come in with padded records, but a win for the Bears tonight will keep them in the MVC race that also includes Drake and Loyola so far this season.

-ALABAMA AT OLE MISS (SEC). While Alabama is looking more and more like a first-ballot NCAA team right now, they have to be careful on this road trip – the Rebels are a homecourt hero in the SEC.

-CREIGHTON AT ST. JOHN’S (Big East). One thing is certain about the Johnnies in league play – either it will be a root canal playing them or it will be an easy victory. A Creighton loss wouldn’t be damaging from a metrics standpoint, but they need to cash in on winnable road games like this one.

-DUKE AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Duke hardly missed a beat when they beat Wake a couple of weeks ago in Mike Krzyzewski’s absence. While they’ve been caught napping at BC and at NC State, they shouldn’t have much trouble tonight.

-NORTHWESTERN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). This game has more NIT bubble implications than it does NCAA Tournament implications right now.

-TEXAS A&M AT LOUISIANA STATE (SEC). The Aggies are playing a little more loosely after home wins against Ole Miss and Missouri. LSU has hit the skids with home losses to Alabama and Georgia and a road loss at Vandy. Both teams are real desperate for wins of any kind right now.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT KENTUCKY (SEC). This might not be the best time for Mississippi State to be playing at Kentucky right now. However, UK cannot be overlooking the Bulldogs in this game even if a bigger game at West Virginia looms this weekend.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Toledo at Western Michigan

Posted on January 23, 2018 by Chad

Toledo at Western Michigan, 7:00 PM, espn3

The Under the Radar Game of the Day returns to the MAC tonight for a key West Division battle between Toledo and Western Michigan.  Even though Buffalo has been dominating the conference so far, Toledo has put together a solid 5-1 conference record and 13-6 overall.  In fact, the Rockets have run off five straight wins since an opening loss at Buffalo.  One of those wins was at home win back on January 9 over the Western Michigan Broncos.  Tre’Shaun Fletcher was especially impressive in that game, scoring 21 points while pulling down 8 rebounds and dishing out a career-high 8 assists.

Western Michigan is currently 3-3 in conference play, tied with Ball State for second place in the West.  The Broncos are coming off a 10 point home loss to Buffalo and looking to bounce back after losing 3 of their last 4 games.  Thomas Wilder will be the key tonight for the Broncos, as he scored 28 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in the first matchup between these two teams.  If he can get more help from teammates like Josh Davis and Bryce Moore tonight, the Broncos could close the gap in the standings and remain in striking distance for the division crown.

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The Hoops HD Report: January 22nd

Posted on January 22, 2018 by David Griggs

We start off by talking about Jon Teitel’s interview with selection committee chairman Bruce Rasmussen.  He discusses how much they value road wins and which power rankings they prefer.  CLICK HERE to read the entire interview.  We then move to the Big East and Villanova, who we feel is definitively the best team in the nation.  Xavier also picked up a huge win at Seton Hall and has vaulted back into the top ten and seems to be cruising toward a protected seed.  We continue to look at how strong the Big 12 is from top to bottom and look at their upcoming games with the SEC.  We look at Arizona’s close win against Stanford, and discuss whether or not Stanford has a chance to land inside the bubble if they keep playing like they have been.  In the Mountain West, we look at Nevada’s win over Boise State and discuss whether or not the Broncos belong in the field.  All that, and much more…

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Jan 22nd

Posted on January 22, 2018 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-For John Stalica’s latest personal bracket projections – CLICK HERE

-For Rocco Miller’s first bracket at his website – CLICK HERE

-For Jon Teitel’s weekly bracket where he guesses the NCAA Selection Committee – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas Southern – CLICK HERE

-Yesterday was a rather chalky day on the court, with all the results ending up pretty much with the better teams (on the radar) holding serve.  Boston College sure made the end of their game against Louisville interesting where they almost overcame an 18 point deficit in less than three minutes, but the Cardinals held on to win.

-Canisius got a huge road win themselves at Iona thanks to an intentional foul by the Gaels that short-circuited an Iona comeback in the closing seconds. Iona forced a tie-up down a point with 8 seconds to go, but Canisius retained the ball because of the possession arrow. On the ensuing sequence, it took Iona 6 seconds to commit a foul and ended up undercutting a Canisius player in the act. After hitting one of two free throws, Canisius inbounded the ball and ran out the clock to complete the season sweep and claim sole possession of first place in the Metro Atlantic.

-In the America East, Vermont won a tough road game at Hartford where they were rarely challenged. 2nd place UMBC went to Albany and put up no fight whatsover in a game where they were sand-blasted.

-The Big South is a logjam. In other breaking news, the sun rises in the East, water is wet and the Puppet will be barred from entry at the Nebraska-Ohio State game tonight. (We are also expecting a couple of other HoopsHD VIPs to be in attendance, though.)

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-NORTH CAROLINA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  North Carolina appears to be on pace to get a protected seed and shouldn’t have too much trouble picking up a conference road win tonight.  VA Tech does have some talent, but their resume is at best really bland and they’ll need to really finish strong just to get into the discussion.

-MARYLAND AT INDIANA (Big Ten).  Maryland is a fringe bubble team, and any team in that position needs to take care of business in their winnable road games.

-IOWA STATE AT TEXAS (Big 12).  Iowa State is coming off a big and surprising blowout win over the weekend, but they still have a lot of work to do before we are ready to declare them a tournament caliber team.  Texas, on the other hand, was blown out by West Virginia in their last game and is simply looking to rebound from that and get the sour taste out of their mouths.

-NEBRASKA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Nebraska has been hot lately, but they have struggled away from home and still have a ton of work to do in order to land inside the bubble.  Having said that, winning this game would certainly go a very long way toward helping them reach the tourney.  Ohio State has been red hot as well and will be in the discussion for a protected seed if they keep it up.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT TCU (Big 12).  TCU REALLY needs a big win.  They are just 2-5 in league play and you get the since that it is slowly slipping away.  A loss tonight won’t crush them by any means, but eventually they’re going to need to win a game like this (especially now that they need to show they can win without PG Jaylen Fisher) and get to at least 2 games under .500 in league play.  West Virginia is coming off a huge blowout win against Texas and still has a good chance of ending up on the #1 line.

-MICHIGAN STATE AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten).  The Spartans had a rough week the other week, but other than that they’ve been fantastic this season and should be able to pick this one up on the road.

-KANSAS STATE AT BAYLOR (Big 12).  K State is still outside the bubble, but is making up ground rather quickly and can take another big step forward with a road win tonight.  Baylor is nowhere near the field, but they are coming off a rather impressive effort at Kansas where they lost a close one.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Southern

Posted on January 22, 2018 by Chad

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Southern, 9:00 PM Eastern, AT&T Sportsnet-Southwest

Texas Southern played a brutal non-conference schedule this season, and failed to win a single game against it.  Despite that, Mike Davis’ Tigers were the favorite to win the league entering conference play and we here at HoopsHD had a dream of seeing this team go winless against non-SWAC foes and undefeated against the SWAC.  That dream fell apart last week when the Tigers suffered losses at Jackson State and at Grambling State.  However, the idea of a team pulling off this remarkable feat this season is not yet dead.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff also failed to win a single non-conference game this year.  The Golden Lions were 0-14 on New Year’s Day, with a KenPom rating of 348 out of 351 team.  In other words, the only consideration they were receiving was as to whether or not they would be the worst team in D1.  Then something remarkable started happening.  UAPB won, and won again, and again . . . and now here on January 22, they are 6-0 in SWAC play and have a chance to pull off the amazing feat that their opponent tonight failed in.  Of course, they first have to get past their toughest road test of the season.  The Golden Lions did pick up a huge win over the weekend, winning at Prairie View behind 39 points from their star player, Martaveous McKnight.  If he can keep scoring in the 30’s, and dishing out close to double-digits in assists each game, UAPB may just be able to keep the streak and the dream alive!

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Bracket Projection (Staff Projection): Monday, January 22nd

Posted on January 22, 2018 by John Stalica

We are now close to the halfway point of conference play – this week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to pick the field as he sees fit at this point in the season. Again, this is not his projection as to what he thinks the committee would do – that is something that Jon Teitel does on a weekly basis. You can click here to see his bracket as well from earlier today.

Also debuting today is our colleague Rocco Miller’s bracket at Bracketeer.org – CLICK HERE

Without further ado, here is the bracket:

First Four Teams Out: UCLA, Western Kentucky, Boise State, Louisiana State

COMMENTS FROM JOHN:

-While I think a team like Virginia passes the eye test to be a #1 seed, their paper resume has not quite caught up to the team yet. Kansas plays like a 1 seed on the road and maybe an 8 seed at home, but their overall body of work is exceeded only by three other teams so far.

-What Clemson has done to this point is amazing. Unfortunately, star player Donte Grantham has a torn ACL and will no longer be available for the rest of the season. Much like Creighton from last year and Notre Dame this year, I want to give them a few games to prove themselves before I figure out how to treat an injury like this. Most of their ACC damage has been done at home, but they now have a question mark for the 2nd half of conference play that is not easily answered.

-Ohio State has drastically improved compared to what was expected of them in November. While they are undefeated in the Big 10, their road hasn’t been nearly as difficult as what teams from the ACC, Big 12, Big East and SEC have had to face so far. Their noncon really didn’t do them any favors in this regard.

-I really, really wanted to have Xavier play Kentucky, but alas bracketing rules did not allow for this to happen since Texas and West Virginia cannot play each other in the second round. As a consolation prize, imagine the revenge factor in play for West Virginia – they were given a spanking before a national audience in their last NCAA Tournament meeting in 2015.

COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD PANEL:

From Chad:

– I don’t have much problem with John’s top 5 seed lines.  I think cases can be made that Cincinnati and Ohio State both belong another seed line higher even, but I understand the arguments against them as well, especially Ohio State with such a weak non-conference slate.

– What has Nevada done wrong this season?  This is a very dangerous team and way underseeding them on the 9 line (I think they could be toeing the 6 but most likely on the 7) should merit a HoopsHD show cause penalty against Mr. Stalica.  However, that is not even the biggest crime on his 9 line.  Not by far.

– USC.  I get that they are playing better.  I would probably have them in my field right now, with a nice trip to Dayton.  But being on the doorstep of wearing white in the Round of 64?  For a team that lost at home to Princeton and has ZERO wins against any other single digit seed in this field?  In fact, their only win against a team that is “inside the bubble” is New Mexico State, a team that likely won’t make the field without an automatic bid.  I just don’t buy it.  Send them to Dayton if you want them in the field.

– I personally would not be sending SMU and Providence to Dayton, I like both profile better than a few higher ranked teams, including USC, Notre Dame, Missouri and Georgia, but am not totally offended by the picks.  I am fine with sending Houston to the First Four.  My last problem is Stalica’s final First Four choice.  Washington is not a tournament team.  The win over Kansas is great.  The win at USC is ok (see my comments above about the Trojans).  The rest of the profile is a bunch of garbage, and their average predictive metric (BPI, Sagarin and KenPom) is 108.7!  At least get into the top 70 to be on my board!  I am not sold.

– So who would I put in instead?  Of his top four out, the only one I would consider is Western Kentucky.  Boise State, LSU and UCLA are all falling apart.  I am literally shocked that South Carolina is not on Stalica’s list (unless that is the USC he meant on the 9 line).  However, I would have taken another Big 12 team — either Oklahoma State or Kansas State.  Okie State has no bad losses and three wins over teams that are safely in the field, one of which (Florida State) came away from home.  K State has better metrics that Okie State, two wins over very good teams (Oklahoma and TCU) and three true road wins against power conference schools.  Plus, they have a winning record in the Big 12, a conference in which a case can be made that every single member (yes, even Iowa State) deserves at least an NIT bid right now.  Give me another team from the best conference in the nation — don’t give me a team that the BPI rates below the likes of Toledo, Tulsa, UNC-Greensboro and DePaul!

– One final note:  North Carolina A&T avoids the First Four in Dayton and Penn goes there?  Seriously?  Seriously?!?!?

John’s response to Chad:

-I’ll start with a little clarification on my 9-line. Nevada is my top 9 (#33 overall) and USC my bottom 9 (#36 overall). Some of the hardest teams for me to place were Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Nevada. I have no problem placing Gonzaga (#21 overall on my seed list) higher among this group because they have proven on multiple occasions that they are able to beat NCAA Tournament-caliber teams against only 1 loss so far to a team not in the field. St. Mary’s has 2 wins (at Gonzaga and home against New Mexico State) against teams I’m sure will be in the field along with a win at BYU that is also somewhat noteworthy. Their only real negative (outside of a bad OOC schedule) is the loss against Washington State in the Wooden Legacy. Nevada beat Rhode Island and Boise State at home. That’s it. They blew opportunities against a healthy TCU team and against Texas Tech, and their loss to San Francisco (in Las Vegas) also weighs their profile down. If they’re able to win at Boise State and maybe survive one other road loss, I’d have more justification to move them up a line.

-USC is not exactly lighting the world on fire, but of their 6 losses, one loss is a yellow flag (at Stanford) and one loss a red flag (Princeton at home). They are still 7-3 away from home and can still hang their hats on wins against New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee (both in the Diamond Head) and at Oregon (even if the Ducks are down this year). If Chad isn’t going to give a little leeway to USC for being 6-2 in the Pac-12 so far, what does he do for an Arizona State team that has looked even worse against an easier Pac-12 schedule so far?

-South Carolina is worthy of SOME consideration – wins at Georgia and at home against Kentucky help. Losing to a bubbler (Missouri) at home and at Ole Miss hurts, as do losses out of conference against Temple and Illinois State. I do give them credit for this – unlike 99% of major programs, they were not afraid to play noncon road games at places like Wofford and Florida International. Nonetheless, they need to get at least one more notable road win – Florida would be a great opportunity to cash in this week.

-I’ll be honest – my debate for the final spot came down to Washington and Western Kentucky. I know I have the Toppers as my second team out of the field, but losing at home to Middle Tennessee did not help. If this game were lost at Middle Tennessee, I might have given WKU the benefit of the doubt and put them in as the last team. They’ll get an opportunity to make up for that later in the season, but with a resume that is almost identical in many metrics to Washington, their average RPI loss is 90 (vs. 64 for Washington). The average loss is what ultimately kept Monmouth out of the field 2 season ago.

-I also need to explain my slotting of North Carolina A&T. They were #67 on my seed list; Jackson State was #68. Since the field expanded to 65 teams in 2001, the Selection Committee has an “unwritten” rule that they do not put teams from both HBCU conferences in Dayton if they were either the bottom 2 teams (from 2001-2010) or 2 of the 4 bottom teams in the field of 68 (since 2011). I don’t think the Selection Committee would break away from such a precedent – therefore I will bracket accordingly.

Posted in Bracketology, CBB | 1 Comment