Bracket Projection (Staff Projection): Monday, January 22nd

Posted on January 22, 2018 by John Stalica

We are now close to the halfway point of conference play – this week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to pick the field as he sees fit at this point in the season. Again, this is not his projection as to what he thinks the committee would do – that is something that Jon Teitel does on a weekly basis. You can click here to see his bracket as well from earlier today.

Also debuting today is our colleague Rocco Miller’s bracket at Bracketeer.org – CLICK HERE

Without further ado, here is the bracket:

First Four Teams Out: UCLA, Western Kentucky, Boise State, Louisiana State

COMMENTS FROM JOHN:

-While I think a team like Virginia passes the eye test to be a #1 seed, their paper resume has not quite caught up to the team yet. Kansas plays like a 1 seed on the road and maybe an 8 seed at home, but their overall body of work is exceeded only by three other teams so far.

-What Clemson has done to this point is amazing. Unfortunately, star player Donte Grantham has a torn ACL and will no longer be available for the rest of the season. Much like Creighton from last year and Notre Dame this year, I want to give them a few games to prove themselves before I figure out how to treat an injury like this. Most of their ACC damage has been done at home, but they now have a question mark for the 2nd half of conference play that is not easily answered.

-Ohio State has drastically improved compared to what was expected of them in November. While they are undefeated in the Big 10, their road hasn’t been nearly as difficult as what teams from the ACC, Big 12, Big East and SEC have had to face so far. Their noncon really didn’t do them any favors in this regard.

-I really, really wanted to have Xavier play Kentucky, but alas bracketing rules did not allow for this to happen since Texas and West Virginia cannot play each other in the second round. As a consolation prize, imagine the revenge factor in play for West Virginia – they were given a spanking before a national audience in their last NCAA Tournament meeting in 2015.

COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD PANEL:

From Chad:

– I don’t have much problem with John’s top 5 seed lines.  I think cases can be made that Cincinnati and Ohio State both belong another seed line higher even, but I understand the arguments against them as well, especially Ohio State with such a weak non-conference slate.

– What has Nevada done wrong this season?  This is a very dangerous team and way underseeding them on the 9 line (I think they could be toeing the 6 but most likely on the 7) should merit a HoopsHD show cause penalty against Mr. Stalica.  However, that is not even the biggest crime on his 9 line.  Not by far.

– USC.  I get that they are playing better.  I would probably have them in my field right now, with a nice trip to Dayton.  But being on the doorstep of wearing white in the Round of 64?  For a team that lost at home to Princeton and has ZERO wins against any other single digit seed in this field?  In fact, their only win against a team that is “inside the bubble” is New Mexico State, a team that likely won’t make the field without an automatic bid.  I just don’t buy it.  Send them to Dayton if you want them in the field.

– I personally would not be sending SMU and Providence to Dayton, I like both profile better than a few higher ranked teams, including USC, Notre Dame, Missouri and Georgia, but am not totally offended by the picks.  I am fine with sending Houston to the First Four.  My last problem is Stalica’s final First Four choice.  Washington is not a tournament team.  The win over Kansas is great.  The win at USC is ok (see my comments above about the Trojans).  The rest of the profile is a bunch of garbage, and their average predictive metric (BPI, Sagarin and KenPom) is 108.7!  At least get into the top 70 to be on my board!  I am not sold.

– So who would I put in instead?  Of his top four out, the only one I would consider is Western Kentucky.  Boise State, LSU and UCLA are all falling apart.  I am literally shocked that South Carolina is not on Stalica’s list (unless that is the USC he meant on the 9 line).  However, I would have taken another Big 12 team — either Oklahoma State or Kansas State.  Okie State has no bad losses and three wins over teams that are safely in the field, one of which (Florida State) came away from home.  K State has better metrics that Okie State, two wins over very good teams (Oklahoma and TCU) and three true road wins against power conference schools.  Plus, they have a winning record in the Big 12, a conference in which a case can be made that every single member (yes, even Iowa State) deserves at least an NIT bid right now.  Give me another team from the best conference in the nation — don’t give me a team that the BPI rates below the likes of Toledo, Tulsa, UNC-Greensboro and DePaul!

– One final note:  North Carolina A&T avoids the First Four in Dayton and Penn goes there?  Seriously?  Seriously?!?!?

John’s response to Chad:

-I’ll start with a little clarification on my 9-line. Nevada is my top 9 (#33 overall) and USC my bottom 9 (#36 overall). Some of the hardest teams for me to place were Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Nevada. I have no problem placing Gonzaga (#21 overall on my seed list) higher among this group because they have proven on multiple occasions that they are able to beat NCAA Tournament-caliber teams against only 1 loss so far to a team not in the field. St. Mary’s has 2 wins (at Gonzaga and home against New Mexico State) against teams I’m sure will be in the field along with a win at BYU that is also somewhat noteworthy. Their only real negative (outside of a bad OOC schedule) is the loss against Washington State in the Wooden Legacy. Nevada beat Rhode Island and Boise State at home. That’s it. They blew opportunities against a healthy TCU team and against Texas Tech, and their loss to San Francisco (in Las Vegas) also weighs their profile down. If they’re able to win at Boise State and maybe survive one other road loss, I’d have more justification to move them up a line.

-USC is not exactly lighting the world on fire, but of their 6 losses, one loss is a yellow flag (at Stanford) and one loss a red flag (Princeton at home). They are still 7-3 away from home and can still hang their hats on wins against New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee (both in the Diamond Head) and at Oregon (even if the Ducks are down this year). If Chad isn’t going to give a little leeway to USC for being 6-2 in the Pac-12 so far, what does he do for an Arizona State team that has looked even worse against an easier Pac-12 schedule so far?

-South Carolina is worthy of SOME consideration – wins at Georgia and at home against Kentucky help. Losing to a bubbler (Missouri) at home and at Ole Miss hurts, as do losses out of conference against Temple and Illinois State. I do give them credit for this – unlike 99% of major programs, they were not afraid to play noncon road games at places like Wofford and Florida International. Nonetheless, they need to get at least one more notable road win – Florida would be a great opportunity to cash in this week.

-I’ll be honest – my debate for the final spot came down to Washington and Western Kentucky. I know I have the Toppers as my second team out of the field, but losing at home to Middle Tennessee did not help. If this game were lost at Middle Tennessee, I might have given WKU the benefit of the doubt and put them in as the last team. They’ll get an opportunity to make up for that later in the season, but with a resume that is almost identical in many metrics to Washington, their average RPI loss is 90 (vs. 64 for Washington). The average loss is what ultimately kept Monmouth out of the field 2 season ago.

-I also need to explain my slotting of North Carolina A&T. They were #67 on my seed list; Jackson State was #68. Since the field expanded to 65 teams in 2001, the Selection Committee has an “unwritten” rule that they do not put teams from both HBCU conferences in Dayton if they were either the bottom 2 teams (from 2001-2010) or 2 of the 4 bottom teams in the field of 68 (since 2011). I don’t think the Selection Committee would break away from such a precedent – therefore I will bracket accordingly.

Posted in Bracketology, CBB | 1 Comment

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 21st

Posted on January 21, 2018 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Jon Teitel’s latest Bracket Projections, one of the best Selection Committee Guessing Experts on the entire planet – CLICK HERE

-For Jon Teitel’s interview with Selection Committee Chairman and Creighton AD Bruce Rasmussen – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Trae Young had 48 points against Oklahoma State, but the Sooners still came up short on the road against their in-state rivals in an 83-81 overtime thriller.  When a team is shooting for the #1 line any loss could potentially knock them off because the margin for error is so thin, but in the grand scheme of things this is still a great Oklahoma team that, barring a completely collapse, should still end up as a protected seed.  They just had their egos a little bit bruised yesterday, as anyone does that loses to a rival, but it’ll wear off quickly.

-Texas went into West Virginia and had terrible awful things happen to them.  West Virginia had a frustrating week and it’s as if all those frustrations came out yesterday in an 86-51 mauling of Texas.

-Wichita State lost their second straight game, and I think this could knock them out of protected seed contention.  It was close all the way through, but Houston was the team who was in control the entire time.  Houston continues to flirt with the bubble.  Some days they look great, other days they look NIT-ish.  They looked pretty good yesterday.

-Iowa State, who had been struggling, blew out Texas Tech, who had been fantastic, yesterday.  It’s never easy to win on the road, but the margin of victory was somewhat of a shock.

-Baylor played their best game of the year, but still came up short against Kansas.  Kansas keeps winning, but they’ve had to sweat out A LOT of games, especially at home, that you would expect them to win handily.  That was true again yesterday.

-Xavier got what was probably their biggest win of the year yesterday as they knocked off Seton Hall on the road.  I’m not as big on Seton Hall as a lot of people, meaning I don’t see them as a protected seed, but I do think they’re easily wearing white in the Round of 64 and that was a great win for Xavier.

-Arizona knocked off Stanford on the road in a thrilling game.  Stanford doesn’t have a great resume if you look at the entire year, but if you look at them over the past couple of weeks they had been playing fantastic.  It’s not a shock at all that it was as close as it was.  Look for Stanford to continue to play well and don’t be surprised if they end up in the field by the end of the year.

-Arizona State went into Cal and only won by 8.  That is just as disturbing, if not more-so, as many of their recent losses.

-Florida got a HUGE road win at Kentucky.  This Gator team isn’t the most consistent team out there, but it’s a lot better than being consistently bad.

-Tennessee picked up what I think is a really nice and sort of needed road win against South Carolina.  The Vols are 4-3 in league play, and whenever you add a true road win against a decent team to your resume things start to look better.

-TCU went into Kansas State and lost to the horrendously dressed K State Wildcats.  Seriously, I don’t know where they found those uniforms, but it’s hard for me to believe that anyone would intentionally leave the house looking like that!  K State continues to roll and TCU continues to sink.

-Creighton could have really used a road win at Providence, but the Friars picked up another win and are now a very impressive 5-2 in Big East play.

-Texas A&M got another win that they really needed as they knocked off bubblicous Mizzou at home.

-Middle Tennessee picked up a HUGE road win at Western Kentucky.  The questions are whether or not this is enough to offset Middle Tennessee’s loss to Marshall earlier in the week in the eyes of the Selection Committee, and whether or not it’s too damaging to WKU’s at-large chances to knock them out of an at-large bid even if the Toppers win out.

-Nevada and Boise State went back and forth in a game that was a ton of fun to watch, but Nevada finally got control in the final minute and adds another really nice win to their resume. Boise missed an opportunity to get another significant road win themselves and may be on the wrong side of the bubble at this checkpoint.

-Bubblicious UCLA fell at Oregon last night.  They could have really done without that.

-For Central Florida, there is good news and bad news on the injury front. The good news is that B.J. Taylor is finally back in the lineup and was productive with 25 points in a win at South Florida yesterday. The bad news is that Tacko Fall has been shut down with a shoulder injury and will not play again this season. They have a big opportunity later this week to get a signature win at Wichita State.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-RUTGERS AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten).  Michigan has been playing a lot better in the last few weeks, but in their last game they were blown out at Nebraska.  This is a nice chance for them to rebound and get back on track.

-MIAMI FL AT NC STATE (ACC).  Miami’s resume is rather unspectacular.  At the very least there is a ton of room for improvement and a road win over an NC State team that’s at least flirting with the bubble would help a lot.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT LOUISVILLE (ACC).  Louisville has completely turned it around in the last week with two big conference road wins.  They’ve jumped out to a 4-1 start in conference play and have another winnable game today against a much improved but not quite there yet BC team.

-VIRGINIA AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Virginia is ranked #2 in the nation, they’re gunning for the #1 line, and they have what should be another winnable road game against a Wake team that just doesn’t have it this year.

-WASHINGTON STATE AT UTAH (Pac Twelve).  Both these teams are so far outside the bubble that this probably isn’t even worth highlighting.

Posted in Daily Rundown, News and Notes | Comments Off on News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Jan 21st

Bracketology 2018: March Madness Predictions (Version 4)

Posted on January 21, 2018 by Jon Teitel

We are only 7 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we begin to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked every single 1 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, 63 of which were within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 43 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming weeks predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on March 11th. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and if you agree or disagree then feel free to tweet us. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 4th out of 113 entries over the past 5 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: Purdue (Big 10)
1: Virginia (ACC)
1: Duke (ACC)

2: Kansas (Big 12)
2: West Virginia (Big 12)
2: Oklahoma (Big 12)
2: North Carolina (ACC)

3: Texas Tech (Big 12)
3: Xavier (Big East)
3: Michigan State (Big 10)
3: Clemson (ACC)

4: Auburn (SEC)
4: Wichita State (AAC)
4: Arizona (Pac-12)
4: Cincinnati (AAC)

5: Seton Hall (Big East)
5: Kentucky (SEC)
5: Tennessee (SEC)
5: Arizona State (Pac-12)

6: Ohio State (Big 10)
6: Gonzaga (WCC)
6: Florida (SEC)
6: TCU (Big 12)

7: Michigan (Big 10)
7: Rhode Island (A-10)
7: Miami FL (ACC)
7: Creighton (Big East)

8: Nevada (MWC)
8: Louisville (ACC)
8: Arkansas (SEC)
8: Florida State (ACC)

9: Butler (Big East)
9: Texas A&M (SEC)
9: St. Mary’s (WCC)
9: Marquette (Big East)

10: Texas (Big 12)
10: Notre Dame (ACC)
10: Missouri (SEC)
10: Alabama (SEC)

11: SMU (AAC)
11: Houston (AAC)
11: Providence (Big East)
11: Syracuse (ACC)
11: Boise State (MWC)
11: USC (Pac-12)

12: Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
12: New Mexico State (WAC)
12: Buffalo (MAC)
12: Missouri State (MVC)

13: South Dakota State (Summit)
13: East Tennessee State (SoCon)
13: Vermont (America East)
13: Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)

14: Belmont (OVC)
14: William & Mary (CAA)
14: Wright State (Horizon)
14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

15: Montana (Big Sky)
15: Fullerton (Big West)
15: Iona (MAAC)
15: Bucknell (Patriot)

16: Penn (Ivy)
16: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
16: Radford (Big South)
16: Robert Morris (NEC)
16: Jackson State (SWAC)
16: North Carolina A&T (MEAC)

Posted in Bracketology | 3 Comments

Under the Radar Game of the Day: Canisius at Iona

Posted on January 21, 2018 by Chad

Canisius at Iona, 1:00 PM Eastern, espn3

Don’t miss Jon Teitel’s interview with Selection Committee chair Bruce Rasmussen!!!

First place is on the line this afternoon in the Metro Atlantic as our Under the Radar Game of the Day heads to New Rochelle, NY for a battle between Canisius and Iona.  The visiting Golden Griffins enter the game tied with Iona at 6-1 in league play.  They have won 8 of their last 9 games overall, including a game Friday night at Manhattan.  Isaiah Reese led the way for the Griffs in that win, scoring 22 points and dishing out 6 assists.  Also keep an eye on Jermaine Crumpton who added a dozen points on Friday, after scoring 23 in the game before that against Monmouth.

Iona also sits at 6-1 in MAAC play (12-7 overall), having won five straight since falling in the first matchup between these two teams back on December 31.  Despite losing that game by 7 points, the Gaels did have five players score in double figures, including a double-double from Deyshonee Much.  Another team effort like that today, especially bolstered by the home crowd, could put the Gaels in sole possession of first place by this evening.

Posted in Under the Radar | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Sowing the seeds we love: HoopsHD interviews Selection Committee chairman/Creighton AD Bruce Rasmussen

Posted on January 20, 2018 by Jon Teitel

For those of you who simply cannot wait 7 more weeks until Selection Sunday to find out what the Selection Committee is thinking, the top-16 teams will be revealed in a sneak preview next month on February 11th.  There will not be a crystal ball previewing exactly which schools will be protected seeds on March 11th…although 3 of the #1 seeds from last year’s preview DID become #1 seeds last Selection Sunday (Gonzaga/Kansas/Villanova).  Rather, it will serve as a peek behind the curtain at what the committee is thinking and what criteria they are using in their analysis of everyone’s body of work.  HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel got to chat with Selection Committee chairman Bruce Rasmussen about the hardest thing to do in college basketball and his view of predictive metrics.

How many hours/week have you been working on selection stuff this month, and what changes would you recommend to keep you from losing your sanity on Selection Sunday? I have not kept track of the hours: in a way I am fearful of doing so! I have been so impressed with the committee members and all of the homework they have done: they are very intelligent people and are passionate about getting it right. Every past committee member will say that it was 1 of the best experiences that they have ever had. As an athletic director we serve many different kinds of people from student-athletes to fans to corporate sponsors, which is very different than working with a group of only 10-15 people to attain perfection as part of a committee/team. It is a bit mystical and hard to describe but you build a unique relationship with the other members, which helps keep you sane while you try to balance it with everything else going on in your life.

Which primary conferences are you assigned to this year, and how much weight do you give to input from representatives of these conferences? As the chair of the committee this is the 1 year that I do not have any primary conferences so I look as it more holistically. We are a conduit for information from conference representatives. When I was a 1st-year member of the committee I panicked because I had 8 conferences and wanted to know about every single team in those conferences. When we began meeting that January I started to hyperventilate after realizing that I should have paid more attention to the other 24 conferences. I had to really shift my focus over the next 2 months to a comparison of the schools in my conferences to schools from other conferences.

What are the major categories that have the biggest impact on a team’s seed (big road win, bad home loss, other), and why are they more important than other categories? The public puts more credence on a good win/bad loss than the committee does. To use a golf analogy, your handicap is based on a review of your most recent 20 scores. With the committee, by the time we get to selection week each team has about 30 scores and we try to weigh each of them the same. I coached basketball for 22 years and as a former coach I know there are a handful of games each season where your team is just struggling so some of a team’s success is based on timing: are you getting an unexpected result when your team happens to be playing poorly? I think the data backs up the theory that the hardest thing to do in college basketball is win games on the road, so we look at 3 things: who did you play, where did you play them, and how did you do? If you win games against good teams on the road, that is a powerful statement. We also realize that it is harder to win at Duke then at a place like Illinois-Chicago. We look at outliers to see if there was a reason for such games, while also looking at consistency.

This season the committee has implemented a new 4-tier system that emphasizes the location of wins/losses: has it made your life easier/harder, and do you think that this new system renders the “eye test” a thing of the past? The RPI was not a selection method but rather a sorting method. There was a perception that there were silos so that a win over the #24 team in the nation was much better than a win over the #26 team, but that was simply not true for the committee. The new system helps us sort wins at home vs. wins on the road vs. wins at neutral sites. It will help us be transparent.

What role do injuries (such as Rawle Alkins of Arizona)/suspensions (such as Reggie Lynch of Minnesota) have on a team’s seed? That is a very difficult question to answer because the 10 of us may each look at it differently. We try to understand why the results ended up the way they did. I think it has less impact on which teams are selected but more so on how teams are seeded. We are not predictive in nature: we just try to describe the animal (D-1 basketball) and get a better understanding of why the events happened. It is hard to quantify but does not have a dramatic impact on seeding, although it is a discussion item for the committee.

If a team wants to make the tourney, are they better off scheduling decent teams who they think they can beat, or great teams who they can only hope to upset, or a nice mix of both, or other? That is a great question that I cannot properly answer. We get asked that by conferences/coaches who want to determine the best way to schedule, but every school/conference is unique and has different priorities. Some teams need to go on the road for economic reasons and get “buy” games, while other schools need more home games because they draw so well at home. If you are from a smaller conference that is typically an automatic qualifier, you may schedule some quality teams early to give yourself the opportunity to see what it will take to win your conference. You also have to play some games where you can develop your entire roster: if Duke were to only play against top-25 teams, do you think that they could develop the #8-#15 players on their team by getting them meaningful minutes? There are a lot of factors that go into it but 50% of the RPI concerns the won-loss record of your opponent: only 25% of it is about how you did yourself.

For those who want to compare your committee to the College Football Playoff committee, what significance (if any) is there to the fact that 1 is governed by the NCAA and 1 is not? I do not put any credence in that. The College Football Playoff committee has to pick the top-4 teams while we pick 68 teams with about half of whom get in by winning their conference tournament. The CFP committee is passionate about getting it right and spends numerous hours “peeling the onion” where the layers between each team are very thin.

Your Bluejays have looked great this year with a 15-5 record and nice wins over UCLA/Butler/Seton Hall: how proud are you of all that they have accomplished, and how devastated were you to learn of Martin Krampelj’s torn ACL the other day? We turned over a lot of kids from last year so in many ways we have a completely new roster this year. We had a fairly challenging schedule this season and I think that we have over-performed. I want there to be an element of joy to the process and have our kids play hard and play the right way: we have done that. Last year our All-American PG (Mo Watson) tore his knee, which made us all realize how fragile the game is. Martin was a key part of our team this year so his loss could significantly impact the outcome of our games. His injury drives home that the addition/subtraction of 1 player can have a key impact.

Earlier this week NCAA tournament media coordinator David Worlock stated that for the 1st time you and the other committee members will see many other rankings on the official team sheets in addition to the traditional RPI (such as BPI/KPI/KenPom): have you made great use of these advanced metrics in the past, and do you have a favorite 1? We have made great use of them in the past but I think they were put on the team sheets for 2 reasons: it is more convenient/efficient to have them right on the team sheet without having to go to another screen, and it allows us to be transparent to the public about the process. I just returned from a 4-hour mock selection meeting in Indianapolis. I look at all of the advanced metrics and I think that Kevin Pauga has as good an understanding of what the committee does as anyone. Our responsibility is to not be predictive but to base everything on results.  KPI tries to explain why differences exist between the 2 types of metrics by digging into that. My concern about predictive metrics is that they care about unintended consequences such as point spreads.  For example, there might be a 1-possession game down the stretch that turns into a 10-PT outcome due to the losing team committing fouls/missing threes.  Therefore, if point spreads are a factor, will coaches keep their starters in at the end of games (to win by as many points as possible) or give their bench guys some playing time (to help them develop)?

For the 2nd straight year the selection committee will unveil its top-16 seeds on February 11th: what was the reaction like to last year’s unveiling, and what do you think fans will get out of this year’s snapshot? I sense that the public liked that last year, maybe more as an educational tool to explain the bracketing process in a little more detail (where teams are sent, why they are paired against someone else, why there is not any conspiracy theory when Indiana gets put in the same region as Kentucky, etc.).  There are more than 1000 games that will be played after February 11th and each of them may have an impact on why we end up putting teams where we do. Last year we did it on a Saturday morning…and due to some upsets later that afternoon it became outdated in a matter of hours. This year we are doing it on a Sunday so perhaps some games the day before will impact it instead.

Posted in Bracketology, Interviews | Tagged , | 3 Comments

News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Saturday, Jan 20th

Posted on January 20, 2018 by David Griggs

For Chad’s UTR Game of the Day between Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky – CLICK HERE

NEWS AND NOTES

-Indiana came into last night’s game at Baylor Michigan State and ended up thoroughly getting boatraced in a game that they really needed to at least get themselves in NCAA discussion. The Spartans had their best outing since their game at home against Maryland earlier this month.

-Thanks to St. Bonaventure’s loss at Davidson last night, Rhode Island now looks to be the only team in the Atlantic 10 with any remote shot of an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. If Rhody wins at Dayton today, the odds are decent that they can run the table in the A-10 this season.

-Buffalo added some further separation in the MAC with a win on the road against preseason favorite Western Michigan last night.

-Both Iona and Canisius won last night – this sets up a first-place showdown on Sunday at Iona between both teams. Canisius already won the first of 2 games between the teams at Buffalo earlier in the season.

UPDATE (11:30 AM EST) – Air Force is suspending all interscholastic events during the current federal goverment shutdown, including what was to be today’s home game against Fresno State. Navy will still play Boston University at 2 PM EST as scheduled. Army will also play their home game (also 2 PM EST) against Lehigh today.

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-VILLANOVA AT UCONN.  It’s a January OOC game between two good brand names, one of which is a good team and another that will likely miss the NIT.  Having said that, UConn is 8-1 at home, so maybe they can be sort of competitive.

-PURDUE AT IOWA (Big Ten).  This may be one of the most winnable road games that Purdue has remaining on their schedule.  They are way up in the rankings and are gunning for the #1 line.

-WICHITA STATE AT HOUSTON (American).  Wichita State is coming off a surprising home loss to SMU, and there isn’t a whole lot of really good stuff on their resume right now.  Houston has been up and down this year.  They’re at home and they should be jacked for this one.  Both teams have been somewhat inconsistent throughout the year so it’s hard to say what will happen.

-OHIO STATE VS MINNESOTA (Big Ten – Madison Square Garden).  Ohio State continues to roll and has another winnable game away from home today.  The way their schedule is laid out, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they were 11-0 in league play going into the game against Purdue. This is an MSG day-night doubleheader involving Minnesota’s basketball and hockey teams.

-FLORIDA STATE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC).  Florida State has a lot of room for improvement and is just 2-4 in league play.  Picking this one up on the road would certainly help.

-LSU AT VANDERBILT (SEC).  LSU is squarely on our bubble right now, and winning on the road would certainly help.  This is the kind of road game that any tournament team would be expected to win.

-THE CITADEL AT VMI (SoCon).  This has no tournament implications.  In fact it has no implications at all and neither team is even good within the SoCon seeing as how they are a combined 1-11.  It’s just a fun rivalry.  Expect to see a lot of intensity if you tune in.

-RHODE ISLAND AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten).  Dayton has been mostly cold this season, but they have been hot at times.  Rhody is blowing through the conference and will have to keep doing so in order to land in the top half of the bracket.

-OKLAHOMA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12).  BEDLAM!!!!!!  Oklahoma could still get a #1 seed, but at the very least looks like they belong on one of the top two lines (at least for right now) and should be able to win this one, but there’s a lot of venom in this rivalry and winning it on the road is never easy.  Oklahoma State doesn’t appear to be going to the tournament, but winning this would be a feelgood moment in their season.

-TEXAS AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12).  I keep saying I like this Texas team, and I do, but I think they’re swinging way over their heads in this one.  West Virginia had a bit of a rough week with two straight losses and if they’re as tough as I think they are they may really be out for blood today.

-TEXAS TECH AT IOWA STATE (Big 12).  Texas Tech is trying to rebound from a loss at Texas and stay solidly in protected seed range.  This isn’t an easy road game, but it is perhaps less difficult than any other road game they have remaining.

-GEORGIA TECH AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  The Tar Heels have a really strong profile and seem to be improving.  They shouldn’t have too much trouble at home in this one.

-TEMPLE AT PENN (Big Five).  Only because it’s a Big Five game.  Penn is making a lot of noise in the Ivy, but they’ll need the automatic to get in and may end up as low as the #16 line.

-BUTLER AT DEPAUL (Big East).  Butler has played a rough schedule and has a decent profile, but this is a winnable road game and they need to win it.

-XAVIER AT SETON HALL (Big East).  I’m not nearly as impressed with Seton Hall as the rest of the Hoops HD staff, but they do have the kind of resume that can land them a protected seed and knocking of Xavier at home would certainly help with that. As for Xavier, this is their remaining opportunity to beat a potential protected seed away from home in the regular season.

-CREIGHTON AT PROVIDENCE (Big East).  We have Providence close to the bubble right now, but in.  We have Creighton in the top half of the bracket, but toward the bottom end of it.  Both teams certainly have room for improvement and a win in this game would certainly help.

-OLE MISS AT ARKANSAS (SEC).  I like this Arkansas team, but they have some work to do.  At just 2-4 in SEC play, they cannot afford to lose at home to an Ole Miss team that is miles outside the bubble right now.

-PITTSBURGH AT DUKE (Buy Game) (ACC).  Oh wait, this is an ACC game and not a buy game.  My mistake.

-EAST CAROLINA AT CINCINNATI (Buy Game) (American).  Oh wait, this is an American game and not a buy game.  My mistake.

-ARIZONA AT STANFORD (Pac-12).  This is a hugely interesting game.  This is a red hot Stanford team that can win their sixth in a row, improve to 6-1 in conference play, and beat a top 25 team for the second time in 48 hours.  They’re still outside our bubble, but they are sprinting toward it and will wind up not just inside of it, but safely inside of it if they keep this up for a few more weeks.  Arizona is a fringe protected seed that I think will ultimately end up there by the end of the season.  Having said that, they need to be winning games like this in order to do it. The winner of this game takes sole possession of first place in the Pac-12.

-NOTRE DAME AT CLEMSON (ACC).  Clemson is having a great year and can keep that momentum going with another win over a possible/probable tournament team in Notre Dame.  The Irish are dealing with injuries and are coming off an emotional double overtime loss to Louisville.  A win in this game would be a hugely defining moment in their season, and may be their best win of the year up to this point.

-TCU AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve).  This game has a very pivotal feel for both teams.  TCU has had a good season, but is just 2-4 in conference play and has just one true road win on the year.  A win on the road today would obviously really help them out.  K State still has a lot of work to do, but has been playing well and is coming off a near win at Kansas and a blowout win against Oklahoma.

-MISSOURI AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  Mizzou is inside our bubble now, but can hardly just start riding the cruise control.  TAMU has completely fallen apart.  They finally won a conference game in their last game, but it was at home against an Ole Miss team that isn’t that good, and they barely won.  They still have some work to do.

-LOUISIANA AT TEXAS STATE (Sun Belt).  A win for Louisiana will get them to 17-3, and since Texas State has just one conference loss this is looking like one of their more difficult remaining games.  One can’t help but wonder if any top 25 will start to notice their bloated record and begin giving them a little bit of love.

-BAYLOR AT KANSAS (Big 12).  Kansas had a huge week last week where they picked up a win at West Virginia.  Their resume is looking like a #1 seed caliber resume despite some surprising losses.  They’re at home today and they should be able to knock off a Baylor team that just doesn’t seem to have it this year.

-GEORGIA AT AUBURN (SEC).  We have Georgia on the bubble and Auburn as a protected seed.  Georgia could really help their cause if they can pick up this road win.  Auburn is coming off just their second loss of the year in a somewhat surprising (but hardly shocking) road loss to rival Alabama earlier this week.

-TENNESSEE AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC).  South Carolina hasn’t looked good at all points throughout the year, but I think they’ve looked good these last couple weeks and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them knock off the Vols at home and end up with a tournament caliber resume by the end of the season.

-TULANE AT SMU (American).  It was hard to be excited about SMU a week ago, but after their huge win at Wichita State it’s hard to not be excited about them now.  Let’s see if they can keep it going at home against a Tulane team who’s program is improving but still has work to do. There is also a revenge factor in play as Tulane beat the Mustangs at home earlier this month.

-WASHINGTON AT COLORADO (Pac-12).  Washington is just outside of our bubble and winning on the road against a Colorado team that’s a bit of a home court hero would certainly help.

-UTAH VALLEY AT NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC).  These are two of the best teams in the WAC, and New Mexico State could be marching toward an at-large bid and a top 25 ranking if they keep winning.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West).  San Diego State’s NCAA Tournament hopes have not been completely dashed, but they need to absolutely thunder down the stretch.  They can’t afford to lose any games to sub NIT teams, be it at home or on the road.  Otherwise, one of their wins had better be that last one because they’ll need the auto-bid.

-MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT WESTERN KENTUCKY (Conference USA).  Also highlighted as Chad’s UTR Game of the Day, Middle Tennessee is coming off a rare loss, which was their first in conference.  Western Kentucky is unbeaten and has played and beaten some of the better teams in the league.  They are inside our bubble for now, and will remain there if they continue to win like they have been.  With a big OOC win against Purdue and some other wins of note on top of that, hopefully the real committee shows them some love if they keep it up.

-GONZAGA AT SANT CLARA (West Coast).  Gonzaga will look to bounce back from a home loss to rival Saint Mary’s, and shouldn’t have too much trouble doing it.

-USC AT OREGON STATE (Pac Twelve).  USC is right on our bubble and could use a conference road win, and this is the game they should be expected to win if they want to safely make The Dance.

-FLORIDA AT KENTUCKY (SEC).  Florida has been hot and cold this year, but they’ve been hot enough of the time to lead me to believe they could still end up with a really good profile and maybe a protected seed.  The problem is they’ve been cold enough of the time to make me think they could land more in the middle of the bracket.  A big game today as both teams look to add a quality win to their resume.

-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT ALABAMA (SEC).  Bama is coming off a huge win against rival Auburn and shouldn’t have too much trouble at home against a Mississippi State team that’s looked good at times, not on the road against tournament caliber teams.

-SAINT MARY’S AT PACIFIC (West Coast).  SMC picked up a huge season defining win at Gonzaga.  They just need to avoid a letdown against a Pacific team that doesn’t have anything in terms of a resume, but that has played well in the WCC so far.

-BOISE STATE AT NEVADA (Mountain West).  I like both of these teams, but Nevada clearly has the stronger resume right now.  This would be a huge win for a Boise State team that looks to be on the bubble.  I don’t think they’d be on the bubble if they were able to win this one.

-UCLA AT OREGON (Pac-12).  UCLA is another team that is squarely on our bubble and could really use a road win against an Oregon team that’s had a rough year, but does seem to be getting better (at least at home).

-ARIZONA STATE AT CALIFORNIA (Pac-12).  Arizona State has now lost four of their last six since starting conference play.  Boy, are they glad to see Cal!!

-UC DAVIS AT HAWAII (Big West).  No at-large implications here but a really good Big West game between a UC Davis team that’s having a good year and is off to a 3-1 start, and a Hawaii team with the same record in league play.  This is one of UC Davis’s toughest remaining games so it’ll be interesting to see what they can do.

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