News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Jan 17

NEWS AND NOTES

-For the latest Hoops HD Report where we break down another very busy week in college hoops – CLICK HERE

-For our UTR Game of the Day – CLICK HERE

-Louisville got another HUGE win at Notre Dame last night in double overtime.  Their resume has gone from being extremely bland to suddenly having two big road wins, which makes them look like a solid tournament team.  Another overtime game between Louisville and Notre Dame.  No big deal.

-Oklahoma, who we were touting as a likely #1 seed, went into Kansas State last night and were completely run off the floor.  It was a huge win for the Wildcats, who may have been exercising a little bit of frustration after losing to rival Kansas on a missed last second shot.

-It was a blistering display of offense where both teams lit up the scoreboard!!  Cincinnati got a big road win at UCF 49-38.  Well, in football that would be considered lighting up the scoreboard at least.

-North Carolina has now beaten Clemson at home 59 times in a row.  Clemson fell behind early, but played their way back into it.  They just couldn’t play their way into the lead.

-Kentucky had a comfortable lead late in the second half at South Carolina, and then for over 7 minutes (I believe) did not make a single field goal which enabled the Gamecocks to come from behind and get the win.

-Georgia picked up a huge road win at LSU in what was another thrilling game.  It was one that the Dawgs desperately needed.

-Texas A&M FINALLY won a conference game.  They came as close to not winning but still winning as a team can possibly come.  A shot at the buzzer for Ole Miss seemed to go 80 percent of the way into the hoop before somehow rattling out.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-VILLANOVA AT GEORGETOWN (Big East).  This edition of this long time rivalry is suddenly a huge mismatch.  Nova is looking at a #1 seed and Georgetown would have to improve just to make it to the NIT.

-SMU AT WICHITA STATE (American).  Coming into the year this was a game we had been looking forward to, but SMU has really been disappointing and is off to just a 2-3 start in the American.  They’ll need to win a game like this and finish on a huge hot streak just to land on the right side of the bubble.

-AUBURN AT ALABAMA (SEC).  For the first time in many years, both teams are in the hunt for the NCAA Tournament.  Auburn is off to such a good start that it looks like they can end up as a protected seed, and Alabama is a lot more bubblish, but if they can string together some wins they can certainly land in the safety zone.  A win tonight would really help with that.

-ARKANSAS AT FLORIDA (SEC).  As we discussed the other night, you get the sense that this is a huge game for both teams.  Arkansas is just 2-3 in conference play and is capable of being a lot better than what their current resume indicates, and Florida has been inconsistent all year.  Every time it looks like they’re coming out of a funk they drop a game that you would expect them to win.  Still, both are likely tournament teams and this would be a quality win for whoever pulls it off.

-UMASS AT RHODE ISLAND (Atlantic Ten).  Rhody has been blowing through the league so far and that should continue.  They’ve got another sub-NIT caliber team at home tonight and they need to hold serve.

-TEXAS TECH AT TEXAS (Big 12).  Texas Tech is having such a good season that they’re flirting with the #1 line, but in order to end up there it basically means having to win every game they play.  Texas is just 2-3 in league play and I keep waiting for them to kick it into gear.  A home win tonight would certainly go a long way.

-HOUSTON AT TULANE (American).  This game probably has bigger NIT stakes than it does NCAA stakes, but neither team is completely out of reach.  If it’s going to happen for either one of them then they need to win this one tonight.

-STEPHEN F AUSTIN AT ABILENE CHRISTIAN.  SFA still has a very slim shot of ending up on the bubble if they win out, so we will continue to highlight their games.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT XAVIER (Big East).  The Johnnies looked strong out of conference, but injuries have plagued them and they’re now so far out of the picture that it’s unlikely that they’ll catch up.  Xavier, on the other hand, looks to be cruising toward a protected seed.

-SETON HALL AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  It’s another Big East match-up between two very likely tournament teams.  Seton Hall will be flirting with a protected seed if they can pick up a few road wins like this one.

-ARIZONA AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve).  This is the textbook definition of a winnable conference road game for Arizona.

-TENNESSEE AT MISSOURI (SEC).  Both teams are having good seasons, but both have room to improve and have shown at times that they could be better than what their current resume indicates, and whenever teams like that are in games like this it’s a big game.

-OHIO STATE AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten).  Ohio State is red hot and can keep that momentum up with another conference road win tonight.

-IOWA STATE AT TCU (Big 12).  This is a very pivotal game for TCU.  They’ve had a great year, but are just 1-4 in league play.  This is a winnable conference home game that they really cannot afford to lose because as good as they’ve been so far they will slip down the seed list, and maybe even outside the bubble, if they can’t finish better than four games below .500 in league play.

-AIR FORCE AT COLORADO STATE (Mountain West, Front Range).  We highlight this totally meaningless game that won’t even impact the NIT for one reason and one reason only!  WE LOVE THE FRONT RANGE!!

-UTAH STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West).  Boise State is on a roll, but their margin for error is small and they need to hold serve in games like this.  A home loss to a sub-NIT team would not be a good thing.

-NEW MEXICO AT UNLV (Mountain West).  There are still very slim hopes that UNLV can string together enough wins to land inside the bubble, but they’d pretty much need to win out to do it.

-NEVADA AT SAN JOSE STATE (Mountain West).  Nevada is blowing through conference, nearing the top 25, and appears to be headed safely toward the top half of the bracket.  They just need to hold serve in games like this.

-ARIZONA STATE AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve).  Stanford has won four in a row and if they can get both of these wins at home this week you have to start looking at them as a possible NCAA team, which is crazy to think of considering how bad they were just a month ago.  Arizona State is headed in the opposite direction and needs to win a game like this just to stabilize themselves.

-FRESNO STATE AT SAN DIEGO STATE (Mountain West).  Both of these teams pretty much need a miracle finish to land anywhere close to the NCAA Tournament.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Cal State-Fullerton at UC-Santa Barbara

Cal State-Fullerton at UC-Santa Barbara, 10:00 PM Eastern, bigwest.tv

The Under the Radar Game of the Day heads west tonight to Santa Barbara, California and Big West action as the UCSB Gauchos play host to the Cal State-Fullerton Titans.  Despite UCSB entering tonight’s game with some of the best metrics in the conference, including the league’s top KenPom rating, the Gauchos are only 1-2 in league play after a loss this past weekend at Hawai’i.  All five starters did score in double figures for UCSB in the loss, though the team only got 6 points from the bench.  If they cannot develop some more depth, it will be difficult to see this team holding up through the 15 remaining games of the conference slate.

The team that surprisingly is sitting in first place in the Big West, at 4-0 in conference play, is Cal State-Fullerton.  The Titans’ wins include a victory at Cal Poly, a place that UCSB could not win.  Jackson Rowe had a huge game in the Cal Poly win, scoring 24 points while pulling down a dozen rebounds.  If he and his teammates can step up again tonight, Fullerton has a chance to move three games ahead of UCSB in the early league standings and solidify themselves as the team to beat this season.

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The Hoops HD Report: January 16th

It was another busy week in college basketball, and the panel starts off by talking about the Big Twelve, namely Texas Tech’s big win over West Virginia and the extracurriculars that followed with the court storming, and Kansas’s huge win over West Virginia this past weekend.  We discuss Villanova’s continued dominance, Stanford’s surprising turnaround in conference play, the continued strength of the SEC, Michigan State’s recent struggles, and much more!

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Tuesday, Jan 16th

NEWS AND NOTES

-For the UTR Game of the Day featuring North Dakota and North Dakota State – CLICK HERE

-For Jon Teitel’s interview with Hall of Famer Ann Meyers-Drysdale – CLICK HERE

-For the bracket projection from Jon Teitel where he attempts to forecast what the NCAA Selection Committee would do – CLICK HERE

-For the bracket projection from David Griggs where he selects his own personal bracket – CLICK HERE

-We will be recording The Hoops HD Report tonight and there is MUCH to discuss, so be sure you tune in to that.

-My biggest criticism of Duke was that they had yet to beat an NIT caliber team in a true road game.  That is no longer the case.  They picked up a HUGE road win last night at Miami, where they were extremely impressive.  Duke came out ice cold to begin the second half, they fell behind, the crowd was going crazy, and the last thing I expected was for them to compose themselves, rebound, come back, and win the game.  I know they had some huge OOC wins, but in my opinion this was hands down Duke’s biggest win so far.

-Boston College pulled a mild stunner at home against Florida State. So far, Clemson is the only team that has beaten BC at Chestnut Hill, but by the same token this is not as bad a loss for FSU as it would be in recent years.

-They weren’t the only ones.  Kansas may have gotten the biggest singular road win of the season last night at West Virginia.  We had been critical of Kansas, particularly for dropping some home games that we almost never see them lose, but they picked up an enormous one last night.

-Michigan had to sweat out Maryland and be helped out by a foul called in the final seconds (which IMHO was the correct call) in order to escape with just a one point win at home.  This was surprising considering how impressive they looked on Saturday at Michigan State.

-Butler continues to look amazing at home and mediocre on the road.  Providence continues to pretty much look the same.  It’s no surprise that Providence beat Butler at home. While both Maryland and Butler are both stockpiling a large quantity of losses, Butler has a few quality wins (namely Ohio State, Villanova and Marquette) to offset that a bit.

-Penn State, who I once thought of as a potential tournament team, is NOT a potential tournament team. Minnesota and Nebraska both have a faint pulse, and the Huskers were fortunate to hold off last-place Illinois thanks to a buzzer-beating 3 to win their game in Lincoln.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-CLEMSON AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  Fun fact: Clemson has never won at North Carolina.  Never.  Not ever.  Not even once.  They come into this game in the middle of their best season in recent memory, but this is still probably the toughest game they played all year.  UNC hasn’t always looked the part away from home, but they’ve looked the part enough of the time to indicate that they are really damn good.  They’re also not away from home tonight.  There at home.  Where Clemson has never won.  Never.  Not ever.  Not even once.

-WISCONSIN AT PURDUE (Big Ten).  Purdue is now ranked #3 in the nation and is flirting with the #1 line.  Wisconsin comes in at just 9-9 and having lost two in a row.  This just isn’t their year.

-CINCINNATI AT UCF (American).  Cincinnati won’t have all that many chances at improving their resume the rest of the way, but this is a road game that could actually help build it a little bit.  UCF is at least an NIT team, and it should be a decent road win for the Bearcats.

-LOUISVILLE AT NOTRE DAME (ACC).  The win at Florida State completely turned around Louisville’s resume and they can build it up even more if they can win this one on the road agains an Irish team that isn’t a protected seed, but should still be able to make the NCAA Tournament.

-GEORGIA AT LSU (SEC).  This game has a pivotal bubblicious feel for both teams.

-VANDERBILT AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC).  I still have Mississippi State outside the bubble, but they are close enough to it to reach it, especially if they’re able to heat up in conference play.  Having said that, they’re just 1-3 in the league right now.

-NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT BUFFALO (MAC).  I think this Buffalo team is REALLY good.  They may be good enough to blow through the MAC, and if they are then they could end up flirting with the bubble given what their RPI will likely be.

-OKLAHOMA AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12).  K State is coming off a missed last second shot against Kansas that could have won them the game and changed the entire complexion of their resume and their season.  They’re at home against a top five Oklahoma team that is gunning for the #1 line.

-KENTUCKY AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC).  Kentucky still has work to do to end up as a protected seed, but I do think the team is continuing to get better and they’ll certainly get their chances in conference play to get the wins that they need. South Carolina is coming off of a win at Georgia and can certainly play spoiler at home again.

-PITTSBURGH AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  Syracuse cannot afford to lose this one.  It’s really that simple.  They are just 1-4 in ACC play, and this is the most winnable ACC game remaining on their schedule.

-OLE MISS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC).  Will Texas A&M FINALLY win an SEC game? It’s one thing to lose to 5 probable NCAA Tournament teams in your conference (Florida and LSU at home and Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee on the road), but losing to Ole Miss would be more crippling.

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Under The Radar Game of the Day: North Dakota at North Dakota State

North Dakota at North Dakota State – 8:00 PM EST – ESPN3/WatchESPN

Today’s feature UTR game takes us to the Flickertail State of North Dakota – this is the final year that this will be a non-conference matchup since North Dakota will be joining the Summit League next season. The Bison of North Dakota State won the first matchup 88-79 back on December 9; they will be going for the season sweep tonight. NDSU is also 2-2 in the Summit League (8-8 against Division I competition) and has respectable wins against South Dakota on the road and at home against Oral Roberts (along with a Tier I victory at Missouri State out-of-conference), but is offset with home losses against South Dakota State and Denver. Paul Miller leads the Bison with 18.3 PPG and 3.7 APG; Tyson Ward also averages 10.6 PPG and 6.3 RPG.

As for the defending Big Sky champions, North Dakota is off to a rough start with a 2-4 record in their league and 4-11 overall against Division I competition. Their best win so far is against a Troy team that has an RPI above 200. However, they did give Gonzaga a scare on the road back in December before losing by a final score of 89-83. Geno Crandall leads the Fighting Hawks with 15.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG and 3.4 APG; Dale Jones also averages 10.3 PPG and 6.8 RPG.

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Bracket Projections From the Puppet!! (Jan 15th)

For starters, this is what I think the bracket SHOULD look like if the season ended today.  It’s not what I think it WILL look like in March, nor is it what I think it would look like if the Selection Committee were putting it together today.  If you want to see something like that, then check out our Selection Committee Guessing Expert Jon Teitel’s latest seed list and bracket RIGHT HERE

This bracket reflects games played through Sunday, January 14th.

As always, I have some notes below and I will open it up to other staff members for comment as well.  If they say anything that is critical of this bracket, or if they disagree with it in any way, then it means that they are wrong and I am right.

-I’ll begin with something that only the bracket geeks will pick up on, and that’s that all four #1 seeds are playing at a Thursday/Saturday site.  By rule, at least one First Four game has to be on Friday.  I’m not entirely sure how the real committee would handle this, but I’m guessing they’d force one of the #1 seeds to play at a different location.  I really don’t like that idea, so I’ve just decided to screw over the #16 seeds by making one of the First Four winners play on back-to-back nights.

-It’s odd seeing three #1 seeds from the same conference, but there is no rule against it if those are three of the four best teams, and in this case I believe that they are.

-I’m not the expert that Teitel is, but I know the real committee won’t like New Mexico State and Western Kentucky as much as I do.  WKU has a big win over Purdue, and another semi-decent win against SMU.  What’s also impressive to me is their road wins at Old Dominion and Marshall.  Those wins probably won’t jump out at the committee, but they should.  Old Dominion and Marshall are a combined 15-2 at home.  The two losses were to WKU.  I kind of blew it off at the time as not being that big of a deal, but the game at Wisconsin where WKU was royally screwed is actually sinking their resume a little bit.

-Michigan has shot way up my seed list, and why not??  They’re playing great and they suddenly have a really good resume.  By all measurements I don’t see how you can not have them ahead of Michigan State at this point.

As far as New Mexico State, they don’t have the resume that jumps out at you, but they are really damn good.  The win over Miami FL on a neutral floor combined with six true road wins is rather impressive.

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Alabama, San Diego State, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Maryland, Saint Bonaventure.

I just can’t get past TAMU being winless in conference play.  As far as Saint Mary’s being left out, winning a lot of games isn’t all that impressive if none of them are against good teams.

LAST FOUR IN:  I notice that almost all of the bracket gurus out there, including those at major networks, feel compelled to tell us who their last four teams in the field were.  JUST HOW STUPID DO THEY THINK PEOPLE ARE??!!  It’s the four teams in the First Four you chumptwats!!

 

COMMENTS FROM THE STAFF

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

– Let’s just suppose for a moment that the Puppet really is onto something where all 4 #1 seeds would be playing in potential Thu-Sat sites. It’s much more likely that Texas Tech (as the lowest of the #1 seeds) would probably be sent to either San Diego or Nashville to play in a Friday-Sunday subregional.

– However, David has been ingesting laundry pods and overlooked Virginia. It is true that Texas Tech has a much better SINGULAR win than what the Hoos have, but Virginia had a much tougher schedule out-of-conference as compared to Texas Tech. When your noncon schedule ranks 211 (as opposed to Virginia’s 100), I think the Raiders have to win outright the Big 12 regular season title to end up as a #1 seed.

– It is plausible that Michigan can now claim a protected seed over Michigan State (especially with a huge road win against Michigan Agricultural College), but I cannot justify Arizona as a #3 right now. Yes, their woes from Atlantis are behind them for the most part, but you cannot ignore losses to teams like NC State (who I also think has more work to do to merit being in the field) and SMU, either.

– Kentucky is another team that may end up as a #4 seed at the end of the day, but I would still wait and see how they do against a much-improved SEC before bumping them up. The win at LSU is looking better and better, although wins against Texas A&M and at Vandy won’t give them as much of a boost as they would get in years past.

– As an UTR guy myself, I can agree with the Nevada placement and even listen to the argument that New Mexico State as a 9 isn’t a far-fetched pick, but Boise State and Western Kentucky (who would be the auto bid winner since Middle Tennessee is a First Four team) are not comfortably above the bubble. It’s just too early to make that claim for them (although WKU got two of their toughest roadies out of the way – an at-large team should also be able to sweep Middle Tennessee and UAB as a 10).

– It’s not too late for Texas A&M to wake up from their funk – after all, Oklahoma State was 0-6 to start the Big 12 last year before catching fire in late January/February and climbing back to a 9 seed. The ice is getting thinner for them.

– NC State (noncon SOS 289) and Houston (noncon SOS 245) tells me that we again need to remind David to stop ingesting laundry pods. Alabama and Saint Mary’s are much more palatable if we want to go strictly by metrics (Alabama) or by the eye test (Saint Mary’s).

– I know that David also has North Carolina A&T and Texas Southern matched up since they’re the two worst teams in the field, but there is an unwritten rule that the Selection Committee doesn’t match up 2 HBCU teams in a First Four matchup because of a potential political backlash.

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