HoopsHD is getting prepared for the greatest month of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel kicks it off this weekend with his predictions for the 13 conference tourneys getting underway in the days ahead, and you can check back next weekend for his picks concerning the 19 other conference tourneys including the 1st-ever Ivy postseason tourney.
America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Stony Brook (#1-seed)
NOTE: only 3 teams to play in title game during past 5 years are Albany/Stony Brook/Vermont
This appears to be a 2-team race between Stony Brook and Vermont but the Catamounts have to be considered the favorite after sweeping the Seawolves during the regular season. Then again, when you win 18 games in a row to finish your regular season that usually means that you swept EVERYONE in conference play! It also does not help that Stony Brook has been playing short-handed all year after dismissing SR SG Ahmad Walker from the team in October (due to his arrest for allegedly pushing his girlfriend). Vermont’s only home loss all year was by 2 PTS in early-December so expect them to take full advantage of the home-court advantage they will have as the higher-seeded school in each tourney game they play. This is a veteran team who has made the CBI semifinals during each of the past 2 seasons so I think they are finally ready to take it up a notch and make the NCAA tourney.
Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Florida Gulf Coast (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Florida Gulf Coast (#4-seed)
NOTE: 4 different champs in past 5 years
I want to pick Lipscomb since they have only lost 3 games since mid-December…but 2 of those losses are to the team that they are likely to face in the semifinals (North Florida). That makes me want to pick the Ospreys…but I am a little worried that SG Garrett Sams might have hit the freshman wall at the worst time after sitting out the season finale against Jacksonville. So, I will go with chalk and pick Florida Gulf Coast to successfully defend its title. The Eagles get to play each of their games at home since the top seeds host each round, and their only 2 losses in the past 2 months were by a combined 7 PTS. SF Marc-Eddy Norelia was the 2016 conference tourney MVP and after missing 10 games earlier this year due to a broken hand and “personal reasons” he can bring some much-needed veteran leadership to a squad that only has a couple of seniors.
Big South tourney predicted champ: Winthrop (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: UNC Asheville (#4-seed)
NOTE: only 5 winners in past 19 years are Radford/Winthrop/UNC Asheville/Liberty/Coastal Carolina
The top of this league is bunched up with 3 teams separated by only a single game but the regular-season champ gets a priceless perk by getting to host the tourney quarterfinals/semifinals. Of the top-3 teams, Winthrop swept Liberty (winning each game by double-digits) and split a pair of games with UNC Asheville (with each game decided by 3 PTS), while UNC Asheville swept Liberty, so I think that the Flames are the odd man out. As far as the other 2 contenders, each of whom only have 2 losses since New Year’s Day, this is Coach Pat Kelsey’s best chance to lead the Eagles to the NCAA tourney for the 1st time since 2010. It is never easy to win games with a 5’7” PG, but Keon Johnson showed what he is made of when he scored 40 PTS in a 3-PT 2-OT loss to the Bulldogs earlier this month.
CAA tourney predicted champ: Charleston (#2-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: UNC Wilmington (#2-seed)
NOTE: 6 different champs in past 6 years
The sentimental pick, as always, is William & Mary because they are 1 of only 5 original D-1 schools to have never made the NCAA tourney (although Northwestern is THIS close to dropping that # to 4). This tourney has featured a different winner in each of the past 6 years so even though the Seahawks started the season 20-2 I do not think that it will be easy for them to defend their title. The other factor working against them is that the tourney moves out of the Maryland/Virginia region for the 1st time ever as it begins a multi-year run at the North Charleston Coliseum. The Cougars have been playing well for a while, losing only 2 home games since Thanksgiving by a total of 7 PTS. JR PG Joe Chealey missed all of last year with a lower leg injury but has bounced back as 1 of the best players in the conference, and his backcourt mate Cameron Johnson would love to celebrate early as the title game occurs just 1 day before his 21st birthday.
Horizon tourney predicted champ: Oakland (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Green Bay (#4-seed)
NOTE: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Valpo has the best player in the conference in Alec Peters but Oakland has had the Crusaders’ number all year thanks to beating them twice by double-digits. It also does not help that they have been without former conference 6th Man of Year Jubril Adekoya for most of the year (due to academics) and Alec Peters last weekend (due to a lower leg injury). I really thought that the loss of Kay Felder last spring would be a death-knell to the Grizzlies this season, but I guess we can now see why Coach Greg Kampe has won more than 500 games during his 30+ years on the sideline. Plus, how are you going to bet against a team from Michigan at “Motor City Madness”?!
MAAC tourney predicted champ: Monmouth (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Iona (#2-seed)
NOTE: Iona/Manhattan are only 2 champs over past 4 years
It is becoming impossible to ignore what Coach King Rice has done at Monmouth over the past few years. The Hawks did not win more than 12 games in any of the final 5 years of the Dave Calloway era, and Rice’s own tenure did not begin much better with 3 similar seasons of 12 wins or less. However, the last 3 seasons have produced win totals of 18, 28, and 26, and after a devastating 3-PT loss to Iona in last year’s tourney title game you can be sure that they have waited an entire year to serve some icy-cold revenge. Their only 3 losses since Thanksgiving were at North Carolina, home vs. Rider in OT, and at St. Peter’s. Their veteran starting lineup consists of 4 seniors and defending conference ROY Micah Seaborn, who hopes to spend his birthday as a starter in the title game.
MVC tourney predicted champ: Wichita State (#2-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Northern Iowa (#4-seed)
NOTE: Northern Iowa has won past 2 titles by combined 11 PTS
If Northern Iowa can make it 3 in a row this year then we might just have to put Ben Jacobson in the MVC Hall of Fame! It is pretty safe to call this a 2-team race between Wichita State and Illinois State. I thought that the Shockers would begin to fade after the loss of senior leaders Ron Baker/Fred VanVleet last spring, but all Coach Gregg Marshall did was lose to a trio of power conference teams (Louisville/Michigan State/Oklahoma State) and go 27-1 against everyone else. The “1” was to Illinois State, whose only loss since Christmas was at Wichita State in early-February…by 41 PTS. As much as I would like to pick the Redbirds to pull off the upset, especially because their at-large profile is tenuous at best, the last time Coach Dan Muller won an MVC title was when he himself was MVC tourney MVP in 1998. With 11 NCAA tourney appearances under his belt, the 1 thing that Coach Marshall has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt is that he know what it takes to win games in March.
NEC predicted champ: LIU Brooklyn (#2-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Fairleigh Dickinson (#2-seed)
NOTE: 4 different champs in past 4 years
Unlike the MVC, this is 1 of the most wide-open tourneys with a whopping 7 teams who won at least half of their conference games this year. The fact that it is an 8-team tourney also means that the top-2 teams have to open up against teams with good conference records rather than against a pair of cellar dwellers like Central Connecticut State/St. Francis Brooklyn. After starting conference play 7-5 the Blackbirds won 6 in a row to finish the regular season, although 5 of those 6 wins were by 6 PTS or less. However, their final 2 wins were at #1-seed Mount St. Mary’s and #3-seed Wagner, and Coach Bashir Mason knows what he is doing despite his young age as evident by his being named 2016 conference COY.
OVC predicted champ: Belmont (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Austin Peay (#8-seed)
NOTE: 5 different champs in past 6 years
Coach Rick Byrd’s team is so head and shoulders above everyone else that it is hard to find anyone capable of beating them, especially since the tourney is in Nashville and they will get a double-bye as the top seed. Tennessee Tech is the only team who has beaten the Bruins since Christmas, but with a 12-19 overall record I think that we can safely call that a 1-time occurrence. Belmont has a pair of clutch senior leaders in 2016 conference POY Evan Bradds and 2015 conference tourney MVP Taylor Barnette, and the only 5 teams to beat them this year each had to put up at least 78 PPG to do so.
Patriot predicted champ: Lehigh (#3-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Holy Cross (#9-seed)
NOTE: 5 different champs in past 5 years
It is boring to just pick the #1-seed to win every tourney so let’s mix it up and throw in Lehigh here because they are Bucknell’s kryptonite. The Bison have only lost 3 games since Christmas but 2 of them were to a single team: Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks still have to make it to the title game if they want to step into the ring with the top seed and there will certainly be obstacles along the way, most notably Boston University (who swept Lehigh this season by an average score of 76-60). Bucknell has a great junior class so they might be 1-year away from being a sexy pick to win an NCAA tourney game, but Lehigh has the best player in the conference (soon-to-be 3-time conference POY Tim Kempton Jr.) and the smartest coach in the conference (Dr. Brett Reed, who is 1 of only a handful of D-1 head coaches in the nation with a doctorate degree).
Southern predicted champ: UNC Greensboro (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Chattanooga (#1-seed)
NOTE: only 4 winners over past 15 years are Chattanooga/Davidson/East Tennessee State/Wofford
History vs. present: the SoCon has 3 teams bunched together at the top of the league (East Tennessee State/Furman/UNC Greensboro) but has had only 3 different winners since 2005 (Chattanooga/Davidson/Wofford). I feel pretty confident that Davidson is not going to win this tourney since they are no longer in the conference and Wofford is only a .500 team this year. The Mocs are the defending champs and have a ton of senior leaders…but are limping to the finish line by losing 6 of their past 10 games. UNC Greensboro has had a roller coaster of a conference season by starting 7-1, then losing 3 in a row by an average score of 86-70, then winning 6 in a row. The Spartans split their season series with Chattanooga/Furman and have already beaten East Tennessee State once (with the rematch coming up on Monday night). I just think that Coach Wes Miller is ready to make his 1st-ever NCAA tourney as a head coach (after winning the 2005 edition as a player for Roy Williams at North Carolina).
Summit predicted champ: South Dakota (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: South Dakota State (#2-seed)
NOTE: only 4 winners over past 12 years are Oakland/Oral Roberts/North Dakota State/South Dakota State
Ever since the tourney moved from Tulsa to Sioux Falls in 2009 there have only been 3 different champs: North Dakota State/Oakland/South Dakota State. Since the Grizzlies are no longer in the conference I am going out on a limb and guessing that somebody with “Dakota” in their name is winning this title. The Bison and Jackrabbits have been a little inconsistent this month, so my pick is South Dakota. The Coyotes have been on quite the bumpy road: 5-0 to start the season, then 8-8 in their next 16 games, but finished strong with 8 wins in their final 9 games. They do not even have the best player in their own state (South Dakota State’s Mike Daum) but they have a coach in Craig Smith who will use a couple of transfers in Trey Dickerson (Iowa)/Matt Mooney (Air Force) and all the insight he received while serving as an assistant to Tim Miles at 3 different schools.
WCC predicted champ: Gonzaga (#1-seed)
Last year’s tourney champ: Gonzaga (#2-seed)
NOTE: Gonzaga has won 14 titles in past 19 years and finished 2nd each of the other 5 times
Let me take a moment to review Coach Mark Few’s resume in relation to his conference dominance since taking over the head job in Spokane in 1999: 17 NCAA tourney appearances, 16 regular season titles, 13 tourney titles (including 3 straight title game victories by double-digits), and 10-time conference COY. As crushed as the Bulldogs are after losing to BYU last night, now they do not need to carry the burdens associated with perfection. They also do not have to worry about a rematch unless the Cougars can get by St. Mary’s in the semifinals (which is unlikely after the Gaels beat them twice this year by double-digits). I still do not think Gonzaga will make it to their 1st-ever Final 4 because history is not on their side, but I think that they are going to stomp all over the conference en route to another WCC title because history is on their side.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Sunday, Feb 26th
NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which involves a Middle Tennessee team that is likely on their way to the NCAA Tournament – CLICK HERE
-Gonzaga, after absolutely blowing through the season, and blowing through their conference, and being absolutely dominant at home, had a chance to finish the regular season undefeated yesterday…..and ended up losing to BYU in a game that still stupefies me. The Zags were up 16-2 (or something like that) around the time of the first media timeout. From that point on BYU outscored them by 20 or so points to get the biggest road win of the year. BYU probably needs to do a little more to end up on the bubble, but if they get another win against Saint Mary’s in the conference tournament they will at least be within reach of it. I believe their RPI jumped over 20 spots with that win yesterday.
-UCLA picked up their most impressive win yesterday with a win at Arizona. This is their second monster road win as they won at Kentucky earlier in the year, and they’re a last second shot away from having a third huge road win at Oregon. UCLA doesn’t always play up to their ceiling, but when they do it’s a ceiling that’s very damn high!
-Iowa State picked up another big win as they knocked off Baylor at home in a game that went back and fourth. They’ve now passed Baylor in the conference standings, and most likely knocked them off the #1 line.
-Miami FL continues to trend up and improve as they handed Duke their second straight road loss yesterday. Duke was without Grayson Allen so there is no reason to be too alarmed, but they’re most likely done with any chance at the #1 line.
-Kentucky avenged their loss to Florida despite being down a man. They’re now in the driver’s seat to finish first in the SEC, and will more likely than not end up as protected seed.
-Michigan continues to play well as they ran away from a Purdue team yesterday that had been playing like a top 15 team.
-Iowa picked up a big win at Maryland. It was just their second true road win, and that is a problem, but if they can somehow win at Wisconsin this week then they’ll at least be in the conversation.
-When it comes to Vanderbilt, I think they’re more than just in the conversation. I think they’re in if they can win one of their final two games against either Florida or Kentucky. They blew passed Mississippi State yesterday.
-Both Wichita State and Illinois State picked up wins to finish tied at the top of the Missouri Valley standings. Illinois State wins the tiebreaker and will earn the better seed due to having a better RPI.
-Providence came from behind at home to beat a Marquette team that’s inside the bubble. I still feel Marquette is reasonably safe, but they really could have used this one yesterday. As for Providence, they’ve played their way onto the bubble and continue to improve their chances as the season goes on.
-Florida State picked up a win at Clemson, which was a pretty good win for them considering they only had two true road wins coming into the game. Clemson had a chance to win the game on a last second shot, but missed. They say all things even out. Well, in order for things to even out for this Clemson team and offset all the close calls they’ve had not go their way they’ll have to make the Final Four.
-VCU, who has won more exciting games against non-impressive teams than just about anyone in the nation, couldn’t get it done at Rhode Island yesterday. I still feel they’re inside the bubble, but that win would have pretty much iced it.
-Kansas State had been in a bit of a tailspin, but was still in good shape going into yesterday’s game against an Oklahoma team that will miss the NIT. Kansas State proceeded to lose by 30 to this sub NIT caliber Oklahoma team. That’s not good.
-In one of the more exciting games yesterday Northwestern surged out to a big lead at Indiana, and then fell apart at the end of the first half as IU closed on a 22-0 run. Northwestern came back back and built a lead in the second half, but they fell apart at the end of that half as well. Northwestern had a 2 point lead and the ball with ten seconds to go. After not scoring, and giving up an IU dunk, and fouling IU on the dunk, they ended up losing 63-62. It’s not enough to get IU inside the bubble, nor is it enough to knock Northwestern outside of the bubble, but it was certainly enough to make IU feel good and Northwestern feel bad for a day.
-Villanova, Kansas, Oregon (who got an unexpected scare at Stanford), North Carolina, West Virginia (who got a scare at TCU), SMU, Virginia, Saint Mary’s, and Minnesota are all first ballot teams who picked up wins. TCU is right on the bubble and really could have used the home win over West Virginia.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-SYRACUSE AT LOUISVILLE (ACC). Syracuse has a lot of big wins, but has done very little on the road. We’ve seen the committee leave teams out that have struggled in true road games, and although it’s more likely than not that Syracuse will get in, a win in a game like this would all but assure it. Louisville is coming off a loss at North Carolina, but is still a solid protected seed that could land as high as the #2 line.
-CINCINNATI AT UCF (American). Cincinnati continues to dominate and can add yet another road win to an already solid profile. If they win the AAC Tournament, which they are certainly good enough to do, then they may enter the NCAA Tournament with 30 wins.
-XAVIER AT BUTLER (Big East). These two teams are going in different directions. Butler is coming off a huge road win at Villanova and is now solidly in the protected seed range, whereas Xavier has lost four straight and is falling backwards toward the bubble.
-WISCONSIN AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Wisconsin is also in a bit of a tailspin having lost three of their last four, and they have another tough game today against a Michigan State team that’s struggled, but has now won five of seven and appears to be playing better.
-MONMOUTH AT IONA (Metro Atlantic). Monmouth still has an outside shot at an at-large bid if they win this game and avoid a loss in at least the quarterfinals.
-GEORGIA TECH AT NOTRE DAME (ACC). Whenever we are ready to completely write off Georgia Tech they manage to win a big game, so for that reason Notre Dame better not overlook them.
-ILLINOIS AT NEBRASKA (Big Ten). Illinois is on the outside looking in, but if their last three games are all winnable and if they pick up all three of them and then pick up another big win in the Big Ten Tournament they’re going to be right in the discussion. I tried explaining this to people on the podcast the other night, but they wouldn’t listen!!