Hoops HD Bracket Rundown: February 23rd

Posted on February 23, 2017 by David Griggs

The Hoops HD Panel look at all the teams that they feel should be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today.  It isn’t an attempt to guess what the actual committee would do on Selection Sunday, but rather how they themselves would select and seed the teams if the season ended today.  They reveal all the teams line by line and discuss, debate, and assess them as they go.

The show was recorded on Thursday, February 23rd at 9:30pm, est.  It does not take into consideration any games that were played after that, most notably USC vs Arizona and Wisconsin vs Ohio State

 

 

Below is the seed list in bracketed form…

 

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

Posted in Bracketology, Commentary, News and Notes, Videocasts | 2 Comments

Throwback Thursday: The 2016 Hoops HD NCAA Tournament Selection Process

Posted on February 23, 2017 by John Stalica

For David Griggs’ News, Notes and Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE.

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between New Orleans and Stephen F. Austin – CLICK HERE.

For the regular season finale of the UTR Video Podcast – CLICK HERE.

Every year since its inception, the staff members of HoopsHD (including past incarnations like CrimsonCast) gather together during Championship Week to discuss the pending NCAA Tournament. The process is threefold: 1) Select the field, 2) Seed the field, 3) Bracket the field.

The process begins earlier in the week – the first job of each staff member is to select up to 36 teams that would be in the NCAA Tournament regardless of whether or not they win their upcoming conference tournaments. (Teams that already won their conference tournaments were exempt, so conference tournament champions like Gonzaga and Northern Iowa were not included on committee member ballots). Teams that were named on at least 8 out of 10 ballots were added to the NCAA Tournament field. This is where the term first ballot comes from on our show. For other teams that did not make the initial field but were named on at least 3 ballots, they were added to the Under Consideration column on the Selection board. Below is our selection board as of Wednesday from last year:

If you look at the rest of the board, teams listed in blue already won their conference tournaments and were guaranteed entry into the NCAA Tournament. 27 teams listed in green were first-ballot teams as described above. The middle column included all other teams under consideration – teams listed in white and orange (orange teams lost in their respective conference tournaments) were included. Teams listed in red lost their conference tournaments but were not named on committee ballots. After this phase, the HoopsHD Committee had their annual pasta dinner and post-dinner ice cream.

Thursday was the first official day of deliberations for the HoopsHD Committee. Two additional teams were added to the Under Consideration board – Centenary winner Chicago State (click HERE for the Centenary Award details) and 2015-16 Team of the People Grand Canyon (click HERE for Team of the People details). Motions were made to remove teams from Under Consideration that did not have enough merit to be included in the field. (Note that teams in white still had games to play; teams in orange were eliminated from their respective conference tournaments). We then began to debate the merits of Under Consideration teams and who should be added to the at-large field. After the first wave of debates, each committee member voted for their top 8 teams to be selected. The top 8 vote-getters would then be ranked 1 through 8 by each committee member. The top 4 teams (Wisconsin, Providence, Colorado and Butler) were added to the at-large column and the bottom 4 teams “carried over” to the next wave of balloting. After more debates, each committee member individually voted on 4 more teams to be added. The top 4 vote-getters were added to the 4 carry-over teams to again be seeded 1 through 8. The next 4 teams added to the at-large pool were USC, Wichita State, Oregon State and Pittsburgh. 1 at-large spot was left open at this point, but 4 more at-large spots opened up when it became clear that the winners of the ACC, Big East, Big 12 and Pac-12 were already assured of an NCAA Tournament spot. There were also 4 more potential at-larges that could open up pending the results of conference tournaments in the Big 10, SEC, American and A-10. Below is the selection board through Thursday night:

When the committee began deliberations on Friday night, further scrubbing of the Under Consideration board took place as more results from conference tournaments were coming in. At this point, our committee began to build our master seed list. A wave of debates took place as to who the top teams would be – each individual committee member voted on their top 12 teams. (The actual NCAA Selection Committee would select 8 teams at a time, but we did 12 as a time-saving measure). The top 12 teams were seeded 1 through 12 by each individual member; the top 8 vote-getters were added to the seed list on the right-hand side of the Selection Board. Four teams carried over; our committee then debated on which 8 teams (4 by the real NCAA Committee) should be subsequently voted into the seed list. The top 8 teams (along with the 4 carryovers) were again seeded 1-12 and the top 8 vote-getters were added to the seed list. We repeated this process one more time to arrive at 24 teams on the master seed list. At that point, we went to the task of adding 4 more teams to the at-large pool; UConn, Cincinnati, Michigan and Saint Joseph’s were added to the field. We were left with 2 at-large spots to fill at the end of Friday night. Our last task was to add 8 more teams to the master seed list. Below is the selection board through Friday night:

On Saturday night, we began by scrubbing the Under Consideration column down to 8 teams plus the Centenary Award winner. This is where most of the debates took place for tonight – 3 teams were added to the at-large field – VCU, Temple and South Carolina. VCU’s inclusion opened up an at-large spot out of the A-10 – this meant that there would be 2 final teams to add to the field. They were Monmouth and a contingency pick in St. Bonaventure. The contingency arose because of the American championship – St. Bonaventure would be the last at-large if UConn won that game; Memphis would have stolen a bid had they won that game instead. The remaining teams were added to the seed list – this included contingency teams like Memphis, Little Rock and Louisiana-Monroe since the Sun Belt championship was played on Selection Sunday.

And this is where the fun began for Saturday night – committee member Joby Fortson (author of the HoopsHD Nitty Gritty Rankings – click HERE for those rankings) lobbied heavily to remove South Carolina from the field and proposed Syracuse in their stead. St. Bonaventure’s merits were also called into question at the same time. 8 votes were needed to support this motion – the motion was to rank South Carolina, Syracuse and St. Bonaventure. Syracuse was #1, St. Bona #2 and South Carolina #3. This meant that Syracuse was now in the field and that St. Bonaventure would remain as a contingency team. Our last task of Saturday night was to scrub the seed list and move teams around depending on Saturday’s results. Below is how the Selection Board looked as of Saturday:

Sunday was our final day of deliberations. A second scrubbing of the seed list was done as Sunday results began to come in. With the late starting time of the American championship, 2 contingency brackets were built based on the final seed list. This was the final bracket from our committee that took into account UConn’s win:

This was the end result of our work from last season; we will convene again 2 weeks from now to begin building this year’s NCAA Tournament bracket as well.

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Thursday, Feb 23rd

Posted on February 23, 2017 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-For our final Under the Radar Video Podcast of the season – CLICK HERE

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which involves a New Orleans team who’s having a storied season – CLICK HERE

-Butler picked up what I believe is the single most impressive win that any team has this year with their win at Villanova.  Nova had not lost at home all year, and their loss to Providence at home last year was their only one in the last three years.  Last night was Nova’s first loss at the Pavilion in over four years.  The top of Butler’s resume is incredible.  They’ve beaten Arizona and Villanova twice and now have nine wins away from home, including six true road wins.  That’s certainly the resume of a solid protected seed.

-Kansas clinched at least a first place tie in the Big Twelve for the thirteenth time in thirteen years with their win over TCU last night.  TCU remains on the bubble, and Kansas remains atop the Big Twelve.

-Oregon was getting blown out of the place at the beginning of their game against Cal, which was a game the Golden Bears really needed to win.  Oregon came back and hit a game winning three at the buzzer to keep their first place hopes alive, as well as keep them on pace to end up as a #2 seed.  Cal, on the other hand, remains squarely on the bubble and is currently on the wrong side of it.

-Louisville stayed with North Carolina for about 30 minutes before UNC built up a reasonably comfortable lead.  The game doesn’t hurt Louisville at all, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they still ended up on the #2 line.  North Carolina continues to look like a #1 seed.

-Syracuse beat Duke with a banked three point shot at the buzzer.  This is the second year in a row that when February started I was pretty sure Syracuse was dead, and they’re once again gaining steam late in the year.  If they do make the NCAA Tournament, which it’s looking like they will, they’re tough to play against for teams that aren’t familiar with them because of their defense.  Duke is still in really good shape, especially with the rest of the ACC schedule and the conference tournament after that.  I still think they’ll end up on the #2 or #3 line.

-Providence picked up a huge road win at Creighton, which moves them closer to the bubble, and perhaps even inside of it.  I’ll be curious to see where they end up on our bracket show tonight.  They have certainly improved as the season has gone alnog.

-Minnesota picked up a very impressive win against Maryland, and made what was an already good looking resume look even better.

-Tennessee lost at home to Vanderbilt which really hurt what looked like a legitimate chance to play their way inside the bubble.  With that being said, let’s take a quick look at Vanderbilt.  They’re 6-2 in their last eight games with wins at Tennessee, at Arkansas, and at home against Iowa State.  They do have a rather dumbfounding loss to Missouri, but other than that they’ve been playing very well and beating teams that are either on the bubble or inside the bubble.  Their RPI is now in the top 50, their overall schedule strength is 3rd, and their OOC SOS is #1.  We have not discussed Vanderbilt all year long, but those are all earmarks of a tournament team.  They have games remaining at Kentucky and at home against Florida.  If they can win their next one against Mississippi State, and then pick up just one of those last two, I think the Dores are in.

-Michigan picked up a true road win against Rutgers.  That’s noteworthy because it doubles the number of true road wins this team has on the season.

-And, Xavier’s tailspin continues.  They’ve now lost four straight, and quite frankly haven’t looked particularly good in any of those four losses, at least for not more than a half.  They have a big home game coming up against a Butler team who is smoking hot right now.  If they don’t win that one, and there is a good chance that they won’t, they may be falling out of first ballot range and into the bubble range.

-Oklahoma State keeps winning, and keeps looking impressive when they win.  After an 0-6 conference start they’ve now won 8 of their last 9 conference games, and 9 out of 10 overall.  They ran away from Kansas State on the road last night to add yet another good road win to a profile that just keeps getting better and better.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-GEORGIA AT ALABAMA (SEC).  Alabama is right on the fringe of the bubble, and if they finish strong they can make the field.  Every game has a pivotal feel to it and they really can’t afford to lose at home in a game like this.

-NEBRASKA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten).  Michigan State is relatively safe if they hold serve, which means winning at home against non-tournament teams.

-MEMPHIS AT CINCINNATI (American).  Cincinnati actually has a chance to win 30 games before the end of the conference tournament.  I still don’t see them ending up as a protected seed, but they can make quite a bit of noise in the tournament.

-TOWSON AT UNC WILMINGTON (Colonial).  I think UNCW has a chance of making the tournament even if they don’t win their conference tournament.  I’d be disappointed if they win out and the committee doesn’t end up taking them.  They may be tested today as Towson is one of the better teams in the league, and has been playing well lately.

-WISCONSIN AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten).  Wisconsin is in a race for first place in the Big Ten and has a decent shot at ending up as a protected seed, but they’ll need a strong finish and a good showing in the conference tournament in order to make that happen.  Picking up this win on the road would certainly help.

-UCLA AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve).  UCLA appears to be a solid protected seed, and is in a three way race with Oregon and Arizona for first place in the conference.

-USC AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve).  Arizona has just one conference loss and currently has the strongest profile in the Pac Twelve.  If the season ended today I think they’d be at least a #2 seed.  USC is solidly in the field and has an opportunity to give their tournament resume a huge boost.

-GONZAGA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast).  Gonzaga can win their 29th game today.  I’ll be surprised if they don’t win out and end up on the #1 line.

-SAINT MARY’S AT PEPPERDINE (West Coast).  Saint Mary’s will end up in the top half of the bracket if they can hold serve the rest of the way.

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Under the Radar Game of the Day: Stephen F Austin at New Orleans

Posted on February 23, 2017 by Chad

Stephen F Austin at New Orleans, 8:45 PM Eastern, unoprivateers.com

For our latest Under the Radar video podcast, CLICK HERE.

The Under the Radar Game of the Day heads to Lakefront Arena in the Big Easy tonight as the top two teams in the Southland Conference will be matching up in a game that could determine the regular season championship.  The Lumberjacks of Stephen F Austin, who have won four consecutive Southland regular season titles, will be in town to take on the surprising Privateers of New Orleans.  UNO has not won a conference regular season title since tieing for the Sun Belt championship 20 years ago, and has not made the NCAA Tournament since 1996.  With only a few games left between tonight and the end of the regular season, and Stephen F Austin already having won the first matchup between these two teams (71-61 on January 28), the winner of tonight’s game will be in the driver’s seat heading down the stretch.

Stephen F. Austin currently sits at  15-11 overall and 10-4 in Southland play.  They have won four straight games and six of their last seven.  TJ Holyfield has led the team, including having scored in double figures in each of his last four games and having recorded five double-doubles so far this season.  New Orleans has a one game lead in the standings, entering play tonight at 11-3 in Southland play and 16-9 overall.  They have also won four straight games.  Erik Thomas has been a standout star all season long for the Privateers.  He has nine double-doubles and has scored in double figures every single game.  Last time out, against Central Arkansas, he scored 23 points and grabbed 12 rebounds.  The Privateers, who just six years ago had decided to transition down to Division III before reversing course and returning to D1 two years later, are on the verge of a conference title and a shot at making the Big Dance.  The turnaround has certainly been amazing, and tonight’s game may just be the biggest one New Orleans has seen in many, many years.

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Under the Radar: February 22nd

Posted on February 22, 2017 by David Griggs

Championship Week begins on Monday!  Which means this is the final Under the Radar of the season.  We will continue to cover all of those teams throughout Championship Week with our nightly podcasts, though.  Tonight they kick things off by featuring the Big Sky.  North Dakota has played their way into first place, and is having what is perhaps their best season since moving up to div1.  From there we run through the other 22 UTR conferences and discuss the final week games of the regular season and what stakes they all have on the conference tournaments.  And as always, we finish up with this week’s UTR Top Ten.

 

And for all you radio lovers, below is an mp3 version of the show…

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News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Wednesday, Feb 22nd

Posted on February 22, 2017 by David Griggs

NEWS AND NOTES

-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which has first place implications in the SoCon – CLICK HERE

-For Jon Teitel’s latest article where he focuses on college basketball legend Frosty Cox – CLICK HERE

-For my brilliant and ingenious ramblings about how the top Under the Radar teams deserve more credit than what they are being given – CLICK HERE

-Clemson.  Oh dear lord.  Ever since January Clemson has been the kind of team that makes you fall to your knees and look up at the sky yelling ‘WHY??!!’  They did it again last night.  They almost won a big game against a tournament caliber team, but ended up not winning.  Clemson is 3-11 in their last 14 games.  During that stretch they’ve lost in overtime to North Carolina, a close game at Notre Dame, by 4 to Virginia who is still a possible protected seed, by 1 to Virginia Tech, by 1 to Syracuse via a last second shot, by 2 to Duke via a missed attempt in the final possession, by 6 at Miami after having a lead late in the game, and last night again by a point at Virginia Tech who hit a shot in the final.  I cannot help but stare in amazement at all those close losses to solid Tournament teams.  It’s crazy to lose even two or three games like that.  They’ve lost EIGHT!!!

-Northwestern isn’t to the stage of failing the physical just yet, but they are to the stage of needing to go on a diet and exercise before it’s too late.  They lost last rather badly night to Illinois, who is not a tournament team.  It’s the second time they’ve lost to them.  They’re just 2-4 in their last six games, and one of those wins was a very close game against Rutgers!  At home!  Now, the good news is the two Illinois losses are really the only ones they have to teams that are outside the field, so their paper is still fine, at least for the moment.  But, they haven’t been playing well.  Had it not been for the win at Wisconsin we’d really be sounding the alarm on them.  Their last three games are at Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue.  If they play like they have for the past couple of weeks (minus the Wisky game) they’ll lose all three of them and then they will be in trouble.

-Florida continues to look impressive despite being down a man.  They ran away from South Carolina last night to put yet another impressive win on their resume.

-Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue all took care of business, although they all made it a lot more exciting than we thought it would be.

 

HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-VANDERBILT AT TENNESSEE (SEC).  Tennessee is still right on the fringe of the bubble despite performing sluggishly lately, and believe it or not if Vanderbilt can thunder down the stretch, and by that I basically mean winning three of their last four and then playing their way into the SEC semis, they may be sitting on the bubble themselves.

-MICHIGAN AT RUTGERS (Big Ten).  It may not feel this way, but this is actually a very big game for Michigan.  They only have one true road win up until now, and if they are unable to win this game on the road, then that is a clear inability to beat even bad teams on the road, and I can’t imagine the committee would think too highly of that.

-DUKE AT SYRACUSE (ACC).  Duke is a solid protected seed who still has a path to a #1 seed if they’re able to win out.  Syracuse appears to be solidly in the field, but can’t exactly begin to skate through the season yet.

-PITTSBURGH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC).  Both teams are outside the bubble (regardless of what Chad says about Pitt in his personal bracket), and both have a ton of work to do just to land within range of the field.  It’s not completely out of reach for either team, but it’s getting there.

-TCU AT KANSAS (Big Twelve).  We’ve been projecting TCU in, but in order to feel completely safe I think they need to do something other than just hold serve at home.  Winning this game is shooting for the moon, but if they do it they’ll go from maybe being in to almost assuredly being in.  Kansas has been on pace to be a #1 seed all year long and that should continue after today.

-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT ILLINOIS STATE (Missouri Valley).  Illinois State is squarely on the bubble and needs to pretty much win out to have a realistic shot of being selected.

-SAINT LOUIS AT VCU (Atlantic Ten).  VCU just needs to hold serve.  Losing this game, which is a virtual buy game, would be the complete opposite of holding serve.  In fact it would be like dropping the wedding cake on a mafia boss during his daughter’s wedding.

-ALBANY AT VERMONT (America East).  Vermont has a very slim shot at an at-large bid, but our Survival Board is still considering them due them being very close to running the table in conference.

-NEW HAMPSHIRE AT UMASS LOWELL (America East).  The Team of the People!!!  They are trying to wrap up a home conference tournament game in the quarterfinals and need a strong finish.

-DEPAUL AT GEORGETOWN (Big East).  Georgetown is way outside looking in, but if they’re able to win their last four games and end up 9-9 in Big East play the committee will give them a serious look.

-XAVIER AT SETON HALL (Big East).  Xavier is relatively safe for getting in on the first ballot, but they are in a bit of a tailspin with three straight losses and they have another tough game tonight against a Seton Hall team that is still squarely on the bubble and could really use another notable win on their resume.

-TEXAS A&M AT ARKANSAS (SEC).  This is a game Arkansas should win.  They need to hold serve the rest of the way, which means wining at home against non-tournament teams.

-MINNESOTA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten).  Both teams will most likely get in on the first ballot, and are now just playing to improve their resumes.  Maryland is still in the hunt for a first place finish.

-LOUISVILLE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC).  Both teams appear to be solid protected seeds, and while UNC has a clearer path to a #1 seed, Louisville has one as well.  If they’re able to pick up this win on the road and stay in the hunt for a first place finish then their path will suddenly be just as clear as UNC’s.

-OREGON AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve).  Oregon appears to be heading for the #2 line if they hold serve, and Cal is still on the bubble.  They need road wins in addition to needing big wins, but this would still really help out the Golden Bears.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve).  Oklahoma State has won nine of their last ten and are playing as well as anyone in the nation right now.  Well, maybe not as well as Gonzaga, Villanova, or Kansas, but they’re playing about as well as anyone else.  They’re smoking hot right now and take on a K State team that is inside the bubble, but could use a win to shore things up and to help assure the ground does not fall out from beneath them.  K State is just 2-6 in their last eight games.

-BUTLER AT VILLANOVA (Big East).  Butler is great.  They have great wins.  They have a great profile because of those great wins.  They have a really good team that in all likelihood will end up as a protected seed.  Nova has a great team, and Nova is at home.  It’s a very very very tall order for Butler.  This will be a harder game to win than any they play during the NCAA Tournament.  If they do play a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, it won’t be on that team’s home court.

-PROVIDENCE AT CREIGHTON (Big East).  This is a huge game for Providence.  Many, including us, are starting to look at them as a fringe bubble team.  They haven’t been the best team away from home, but if they’re able to pick up this win, on the road, against a quality Creighton team then it greatly enhances the complexion of their profile and they’ll be looking a lot more like an NCAA Tournament team.  Creighton is still trying to string together wins since losing Mo Watson for the season.

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