NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which has first place implications in the SoCon – CLICK HERE
-For Jon Teitel’s latest article where he focuses on college basketball legend Frosty Cox – CLICK HERE
-For my brilliant and ingenious ramblings about how the top Under the Radar teams deserve more credit than what they are being given – CLICK HERE
-Clemson. Oh dear lord. Ever since January Clemson has been the kind of team that makes you fall to your knees and look up at the sky yelling ‘WHY??!!’ They did it again last night. They almost won a big game against a tournament caliber team, but ended up not winning. Clemson is 3-11 in their last 14 games. During that stretch they’ve lost in overtime to North Carolina, a close game at Notre Dame, by 4 to Virginia who is still a possible protected seed, by 1 to Virginia Tech, by 1 to Syracuse via a last second shot, by 2 to Duke via a missed attempt in the final possession, by 6 at Miami after having a lead late in the game, and last night again by a point at Virginia Tech who hit a shot in the final. I cannot help but stare in amazement at all those close losses to solid Tournament teams. It’s crazy to lose even two or three games like that. They’ve lost EIGHT!!!
-Northwestern isn’t to the stage of failing the physical just yet, but they are to the stage of needing to go on a diet and exercise before it’s too late. They lost last rather badly night to Illinois, who is not a tournament team. It’s the second time they’ve lost to them. They’re just 2-4 in their last six games, and one of those wins was a very close game against Rutgers! At home! Now, the good news is the two Illinois losses are really the only ones they have to teams that are outside the field, so their paper is still fine, at least for the moment. But, they haven’t been playing well. Had it not been for the win at Wisconsin we’d really be sounding the alarm on them. Their last three games are at Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue. If they play like they have for the past couple of weeks (minus the Wisky game) they’ll lose all three of them and then they will be in trouble.
-Florida continues to look impressive despite being down a man. They ran away from South Carolina last night to put yet another impressive win on their resume.
-Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue all took care of business, although they all made it a lot more exciting than we thought it would be.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-VANDERBILT AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Tennessee is still right on the fringe of the bubble despite performing sluggishly lately, and believe it or not if Vanderbilt can thunder down the stretch, and by that I basically mean winning three of their last four and then playing their way into the SEC semis, they may be sitting on the bubble themselves.
-MICHIGAN AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). It may not feel this way, but this is actually a very big game for Michigan. They only have one true road win up until now, and if they are unable to win this game on the road, then that is a clear inability to beat even bad teams on the road, and I can’t imagine the committee would think too highly of that.
-DUKE AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Duke is a solid protected seed who still has a path to a #1 seed if they’re able to win out. Syracuse appears to be solidly in the field, but can’t exactly begin to skate through the season yet.
-PITTSBURGH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Both teams are outside the bubble (regardless of what Chad says about Pitt in his personal bracket), and both have a ton of work to do just to land within range of the field. It’s not completely out of reach for either team, but it’s getting there.
-TCU AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). We’ve been projecting TCU in, but in order to feel completely safe I think they need to do something other than just hold serve at home. Winning this game is shooting for the moon, but if they do it they’ll go from maybe being in to almost assuredly being in. Kansas has been on pace to be a #1 seed all year long and that should continue after today.
-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT ILLINOIS STATE (Missouri Valley). Illinois State is squarely on the bubble and needs to pretty much win out to have a realistic shot of being selected.
-SAINT LOUIS AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). VCU just needs to hold serve. Losing this game, which is a virtual buy game, would be the complete opposite of holding serve. In fact it would be like dropping the wedding cake on a mafia boss during his daughter’s wedding.
-ALBANY AT VERMONT (America East). Vermont has a very slim shot at an at-large bid, but our Survival Board is still considering them due them being very close to running the table in conference.
-NEW HAMPSHIRE AT UMASS LOWELL (America East). The Team of the People!!! They are trying to wrap up a home conference tournament game in the quarterfinals and need a strong finish.
-DEPAUL AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Georgetown is way outside looking in, but if they’re able to win their last four games and end up 9-9 in Big East play the committee will give them a serious look.
-XAVIER AT SETON HALL (Big East). Xavier is relatively safe for getting in on the first ballot, but they are in a bit of a tailspin with three straight losses and they have another tough game tonight against a Seton Hall team that is still squarely on the bubble and could really use another notable win on their resume.
-TEXAS A&M AT ARKANSAS (SEC). This is a game Arkansas should win. They need to hold serve the rest of the way, which means wining at home against non-tournament teams.
-MINNESOTA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Both teams will most likely get in on the first ballot, and are now just playing to improve their resumes. Maryland is still in the hunt for a first place finish.
-LOUISVILLE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). Both teams appear to be solid protected seeds, and while UNC has a clearer path to a #1 seed, Louisville has one as well. If they’re able to pick up this win on the road and stay in the hunt for a first place finish then their path will suddenly be just as clear as UNC’s.
-OREGON AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Oregon appears to be heading for the #2 line if they hold serve, and Cal is still on the bubble. They need road wins in addition to needing big wins, but this would still really help out the Golden Bears.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). Oklahoma State has won nine of their last ten and are playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. Well, maybe not as well as Gonzaga, Villanova, or Kansas, but they’re playing about as well as anyone else. They’re smoking hot right now and take on a K State team that is inside the bubble, but could use a win to shore things up and to help assure the ground does not fall out from beneath them. K State is just 2-6 in their last eight games.
-BUTLER AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Butler is great. They have great wins. They have a great profile because of those great wins. They have a really good team that in all likelihood will end up as a protected seed. Nova has a great team, and Nova is at home. It’s a very very very tall order for Butler. This will be a harder game to win than any they play during the NCAA Tournament. If they do play a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, it won’t be on that team’s home court.
-PROVIDENCE AT CREIGHTON (Big East). This is a huge game for Providence. Many, including us, are starting to look at them as a fringe bubble team. They haven’t been the best team away from home, but if they’re able to pick up this win, on the road, against a quality Creighton team then it greatly enhances the complexion of their profile and they’ll be looking a lot more like an NCAA Tournament team. Creighton is still trying to string together wins since losing Mo Watson for the season.
Puppet Ramblings: Five Very Good Under the Radar Resumes
I don’t editorialize all that often, but when I do, it is awesome!!
Tonight is our final Under the Radar Podcast of the season. We will discuss each conference like we always do, go over the conference tournament formats for all 23 UTR leagues, probably make a prediction on the winner, and assess what each team has remaining. By no means are we going away after that. It’s just that conference tournaments begin this upcoming Monday, so every night beginning this Sunday we will be recording our Championship Week Video Notebooks.
We have closely followed these teams all year long, and we are quite familiar with them. But even though we’ve closely followed them since literally the first day of the season, I now think even we are undervaluing them. With the bubble being as weak as it is, I felt compelled to go back and look at these teams and see what kind of case could be made for them. On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of merit there. Just bloated records against predominantly sub NIT caliber teams. But after looking at things a little more closely, I now believe these teams have won a significant number of games that were harder to win than what many other teams on the bubble have won.
To be more specific, if a team’s best wins are all at home against RPI top 50 teams who have losing records on the road, then I do not feel those games are any harder to win than going on the road to play a team that, while out of the RPI top 100, is still winning close to 80 percent of their home games. So, while the five teams below do not have an abundance of wins against “top 50” teams, they have won games on the road that are just as hard to win, if not more so, than it is to win against a lot of top fifty teams at home.
So, take another look. And, at least consider it. And, let’s hope that the selection committee is looking at them a little more closely than even we were just a few days ago.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (23-4)
–RPI = 32 (good)
–OOC RPI = 26 (good)
–OOC SOS = 18 (very good)
–True Road Record = 10-2. 7 of the wins came against teams with winning records at home. Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss are a combined 49-8 at home in games where they haven’t played Middle Tennessee. (VERY VERY good)
–Neutral Floor Record = 3-0, including a win over 22-5 UNC Wilmington (good)
–Other Notes = 3 bad loss at Tennessee State, at UTEP, and at home to Georgia State, but the loss at UTEP came during a stretch where the Miners are 9-2 in their last 11 games, and it was at the buzzer. They also have a loss at VCU, who has lost just one home game this year.
–Conference Tournament = At a predetermined site in Birmingham, AL. They could potentially have to face UAB in a virtual road game despite being the best team in the conference (crap deal)
The OOC RPI and SOS show that they scheduled exactly the way the committee says they should. The wins on the road show that they’re capable of winning games that are hard to win. Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss aren’t considered “quality teams” by most, so they’re not going to get credit for quality wins for beating them. But, if you look at it closely, you see that those teams win a lot of games at home. I would argue that it’s harder to win at Belmont or Marshall than it is to beat top fifty teams such as Michigan and TCU at home. Those two teams have won a combined total of three true road games. So, we have a first place team with a top 40 RPI with five notable wins and a top 20 OOC schedule. That beats the bubble.
TEXAS ARLINGTON (19-6)
–RPI = 34 (good)
–OOC RPI = 21 (very good)
–OOC SOS = 58 (fair)
–True Road Record = 10-6. Includes a win at Saint Mary’s who’s only other home loss has come to Gonzaga, Texas who was at full strength at the time, and Georgia State and Georgia Southern who are a combined 16-3 at home when not playing Texas Arlington (very good).
–Other Notes = 5 of the 6 losses were at Minnesota and at Arkansas who appear to be tournament teams, and Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, and Troy who are a combined 23-10 at home.
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in New Orleans. The seeding is standard and there is no advantage for the first place team. (crap deal)
They are a first place team with a top forty RPI. That almost always gets a team in. They also have also have two tough road wins against Georgia Southern and Georgia State, and another against Saint Mary’s who is a solid tournament team. If this team wins out they will have all the earmarks of an at-large team, and although they don’t have too many wins against the RPI top fifty, they’ve won games on the road that are harder to win than it is to win against a top fifty team at home with a losing road record. This beats the bubble
UNC WILMINGTON (22-5)
–RPI = 42 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 30 (good)
–OOC SOS = 109 (not so good)
–True Road Record = 11-3. 6 of the 11 teams have winning records at home. Western Michigan, Saint Bonaventure, Towson, and College of Charleston are a combined 38-8 at home when not playing UNCW (good)
–Other Notes = Of the three road games they lost, William & Mary is unbeaten at home, Clemson is 9-4, and Elon is a modest 7-3.
–Conference Tournament = Is being played at Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference and who has split with UNCW. It’s possible they’ll have to win a virtual road game in the conference championship despite being the better team. (crap deal)
Like the previous teams, they lack quality wins, but they’ve won games that are difficult to win in the sense that they’ve won on the road against teams that play very well at home. They do have two sub 100 RPI losses, but one of those was at William & Mary who is unbeaten at home, and the other was at Elon who is at least decent at home.
ILLINOIS STATE (22-5)
–RPI = 33 (good)
–OOC RPI = 87 (bad)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 8-4. 4 of the teams have winning records at home. Evansville and Loyola Chicago are a combined 20-5 at home when not playing Illinois State, and two of the other five losses are to Wichita State. (fair)
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in Saint Louis (I guess fair)
–Other Notes = -All five losses were away from home, and four were to teams with winning home records. They also have a home win against Wichita State.
Of the five teams on this list, this is the team that we at Hoops HD have been giving the most love to, and although I definitely think they are worthy of consideration and comparable to other teams on the bubble who have really just won at home against top fifty teams that are bad on the road, I don’t like them as much as Middle Tennessee, or Texas Arlington, or UNC Wilmington. While this team has a quality win and for the most part has avoided bad losses, the games they’ve won aren’t as hard to win as a lot of the games that Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington, and UNC Wilmington have won. I still like them, though.
MONMOUTH (24-5)
–RPI = 46 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 35 (good)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 11-4. Three of the losses were at South Carolina, North Carolina, and Syracuse. Only 5 teams have winning records at home, but Memphis and Siena are a combined 22-5 at home when not playing Monmouth (good)
–Conference Tournament = Clinched first place in the Metro Atlantic, but the tournament is being hosted by Siena and they could have to play a virtual road game in the semifinals. (crap deal)
This isn’t the strongest profile, but it doesn’t smell any worse than some of the bubble teams from power conferences who’s best wins came at home against top fifty teams with losing road records. They do have two bad losses to Rider and Saint Peter’s, but both were on the road, and also beat both of those teams, and they completely dominated the league which demonstrates they can beat anyone in it