NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which has first place implications in the SoCon – CLICK HERE
-For Jon Teitel’s latest article where he focuses on college basketball legend Frosty Cox – CLICK HERE
-For my brilliant and ingenious ramblings about how the top Under the Radar teams deserve more credit than what they are being given – CLICK HERE
-Clemson. Oh dear lord. Ever since January Clemson has been the kind of team that makes you fall to your knees and look up at the sky yelling ‘WHY??!!’ They did it again last night. They almost won a big game against a tournament caliber team, but ended up not winning. Clemson is 3-11 in their last 14 games. During that stretch they’ve lost in overtime to North Carolina, a close game at Notre Dame, by 4 to Virginia who is still a possible protected seed, by 1 to Virginia Tech, by 1 to Syracuse via a last second shot, by 2 to Duke via a missed attempt in the final possession, by 6 at Miami after having a lead late in the game, and last night again by a point at Virginia Tech who hit a shot in the final. I cannot help but stare in amazement at all those close losses to solid Tournament teams. It’s crazy to lose even two or three games like that. They’ve lost EIGHT!!!
-Northwestern isn’t to the stage of failing the physical just yet, but they are to the stage of needing to go on a diet and exercise before it’s too late. They lost last rather badly night to Illinois, who is not a tournament team. It’s the second time they’ve lost to them. They’re just 2-4 in their last six games, and one of those wins was a very close game against Rutgers! At home! Now, the good news is the two Illinois losses are really the only ones they have to teams that are outside the field, so their paper is still fine, at least for the moment. But, they haven’t been playing well. Had it not been for the win at Wisconsin we’d really be sounding the alarm on them. Their last three games are at Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue. If they play like they have for the past couple of weeks (minus the Wisky game) they’ll lose all three of them and then they will be in trouble.
-Florida continues to look impressive despite being down a man. They ran away from South Carolina last night to put yet another impressive win on their resume.
-Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue all took care of business, although they all made it a lot more exciting than we thought it would be.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-VANDERBILT AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Tennessee is still right on the fringe of the bubble despite performing sluggishly lately, and believe it or not if Vanderbilt can thunder down the stretch, and by that I basically mean winning three of their last four and then playing their way into the SEC semis, they may be sitting on the bubble themselves.
-MICHIGAN AT RUTGERS (Big Ten). It may not feel this way, but this is actually a very big game for Michigan. They only have one true road win up until now, and if they are unable to win this game on the road, then that is a clear inability to beat even bad teams on the road, and I can’t imagine the committee would think too highly of that.
-DUKE AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Duke is a solid protected seed who still has a path to a #1 seed if they’re able to win out. Syracuse appears to be solidly in the field, but can’t exactly begin to skate through the season yet.
-PITTSBURGH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Both teams are outside the bubble (regardless of what Chad says about Pitt in his personal bracket), and both have a ton of work to do just to land within range of the field. It’s not completely out of reach for either team, but it’s getting there.
-TCU AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). We’ve been projecting TCU in, but in order to feel completely safe I think they need to do something other than just hold serve at home. Winning this game is shooting for the moon, but if they do it they’ll go from maybe being in to almost assuredly being in. Kansas has been on pace to be a #1 seed all year long and that should continue after today.
-SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT ILLINOIS STATE (Missouri Valley). Illinois State is squarely on the bubble and needs to pretty much win out to have a realistic shot of being selected.
-SAINT LOUIS AT VCU (Atlantic Ten). VCU just needs to hold serve. Losing this game, which is a virtual buy game, would be the complete opposite of holding serve. In fact it would be like dropping the wedding cake on a mafia boss during his daughter’s wedding.
-ALBANY AT VERMONT (America East). Vermont has a very slim shot at an at-large bid, but our Survival Board is still considering them due them being very close to running the table in conference.
-NEW HAMPSHIRE AT UMASS LOWELL (America East). The Team of the People!!! They are trying to wrap up a home conference tournament game in the quarterfinals and need a strong finish.
-DEPAUL AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Georgetown is way outside looking in, but if they’re able to win their last four games and end up 9-9 in Big East play the committee will give them a serious look.
-XAVIER AT SETON HALL (Big East). Xavier is relatively safe for getting in on the first ballot, but they are in a bit of a tailspin with three straight losses and they have another tough game tonight against a Seton Hall team that is still squarely on the bubble and could really use another notable win on their resume.
-TEXAS A&M AT ARKANSAS (SEC). This is a game Arkansas should win. They need to hold serve the rest of the way, which means wining at home against non-tournament teams.
-MINNESOTA AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). Both teams will most likely get in on the first ballot, and are now just playing to improve their resumes. Maryland is still in the hunt for a first place finish.
-LOUISVILLE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). Both teams appear to be solid protected seeds, and while UNC has a clearer path to a #1 seed, Louisville has one as well. If they’re able to pick up this win on the road and stay in the hunt for a first place finish then their path will suddenly be just as clear as UNC’s.
-OREGON AT CALIFORNIA (Pac Twelve). Oregon appears to be heading for the #2 line if they hold serve, and Cal is still on the bubble. They need road wins in addition to needing big wins, but this would still really help out the Golden Bears.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). Oklahoma State has won nine of their last ten and are playing as well as anyone in the nation right now. Well, maybe not as well as Gonzaga, Villanova, or Kansas, but they’re playing about as well as anyone else. They’re smoking hot right now and take on a K State team that is inside the bubble, but could use a win to shore things up and to help assure the ground does not fall out from beneath them. K State is just 2-6 in their last eight games.
-BUTLER AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Butler is great. They have great wins. They have a great profile because of those great wins. They have a really good team that in all likelihood will end up as a protected seed. Nova has a great team, and Nova is at home. It’s a very very very tall order for Butler. This will be a harder game to win than any they play during the NCAA Tournament. If they do play a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, it won’t be on that team’s home court.
-PROVIDENCE AT CREIGHTON (Big East). This is a huge game for Providence. Many, including us, are starting to look at them as a fringe bubble team. They haven’t been the best team away from home, but if they’re able to pick up this win, on the road, against a quality Creighton team then it greatly enhances the complexion of their profile and they’ll be looking a lot more like an NCAA Tournament team. Creighton is still trying to string together wins since losing Mo Watson for the season.
News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Thursday, Feb 23rd
NEWS AND NOTES
-For our final Under the Radar Video Podcast of the season – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which involves a New Orleans team who’s having a storied season – CLICK HERE
-Butler picked up what I believe is the single most impressive win that any team has this year with their win at Villanova. Nova had not lost at home all year, and their loss to Providence at home last year was their only one in the last three years. Last night was Nova’s first loss at the Pavilion in over four years. The top of Butler’s resume is incredible. They’ve beaten Arizona and Villanova twice and now have nine wins away from home, including six true road wins. That’s certainly the resume of a solid protected seed.
-Kansas clinched at least a first place tie in the Big Twelve for the thirteenth time in thirteen years with their win over TCU last night. TCU remains on the bubble, and Kansas remains atop the Big Twelve.
-Oregon was getting blown out of the place at the beginning of their game against Cal, which was a game the Golden Bears really needed to win. Oregon came back and hit a game winning three at the buzzer to keep their first place hopes alive, as well as keep them on pace to end up as a #2 seed. Cal, on the other hand, remains squarely on the bubble and is currently on the wrong side of it.
-Louisville stayed with North Carolina for about 30 minutes before UNC built up a reasonably comfortable lead. The game doesn’t hurt Louisville at all, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they still ended up on the #2 line. North Carolina continues to look like a #1 seed.
-Syracuse beat Duke with a banked three point shot at the buzzer. This is the second year in a row that when February started I was pretty sure Syracuse was dead, and they’re once again gaining steam late in the year. If they do make the NCAA Tournament, which it’s looking like they will, they’re tough to play against for teams that aren’t familiar with them because of their defense. Duke is still in really good shape, especially with the rest of the ACC schedule and the conference tournament after that. I still think they’ll end up on the #2 or #3 line.
-Providence picked up a huge road win at Creighton, which moves them closer to the bubble, and perhaps even inside of it. I’ll be curious to see where they end up on our bracket show tonight. They have certainly improved as the season has gone alnog.
-Minnesota picked up a very impressive win against Maryland, and made what was an already good looking resume look even better.
-Tennessee lost at home to Vanderbilt which really hurt what looked like a legitimate chance to play their way inside the bubble. With that being said, let’s take a quick look at Vanderbilt. They’re 6-2 in their last eight games with wins at Tennessee, at Arkansas, and at home against Iowa State. They do have a rather dumbfounding loss to Missouri, but other than that they’ve been playing very well and beating teams that are either on the bubble or inside the bubble. Their RPI is now in the top 50, their overall schedule strength is 3rd, and their OOC SOS is #1. We have not discussed Vanderbilt all year long, but those are all earmarks of a tournament team. They have games remaining at Kentucky and at home against Florida. If they can win their next one against Mississippi State, and then pick up just one of those last two, I think the Dores are in.
-Michigan picked up a true road win against Rutgers. That’s noteworthy because it doubles the number of true road wins this team has on the season.
-And, Xavier’s tailspin continues. They’ve now lost four straight, and quite frankly haven’t looked particularly good in any of those four losses, at least for not more than a half. They have a big home game coming up against a Butler team who is smoking hot right now. If they don’t win that one, and there is a good chance that they won’t, they may be falling out of first ballot range and into the bubble range.
-Oklahoma State keeps winning, and keeps looking impressive when they win. After an 0-6 conference start they’ve now won 8 of their last 9 conference games, and 9 out of 10 overall. They ran away from Kansas State on the road last night to add yet another good road win to a profile that just keeps getting better and better.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-GEORGIA AT ALABAMA (SEC). Alabama is right on the fringe of the bubble, and if they finish strong they can make the field. Every game has a pivotal feel to it and they really can’t afford to lose at home in a game like this.
-NEBRASKA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Michigan State is relatively safe if they hold serve, which means winning at home against non-tournament teams.
-MEMPHIS AT CINCINNATI (American). Cincinnati actually has a chance to win 30 games before the end of the conference tournament. I still don’t see them ending up as a protected seed, but they can make quite a bit of noise in the tournament.
-TOWSON AT UNC WILMINGTON (Colonial). I think UNCW has a chance of making the tournament even if they don’t win their conference tournament. I’d be disappointed if they win out and the committee doesn’t end up taking them. They may be tested today as Towson is one of the better teams in the league, and has been playing well lately.
-WISCONSIN AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Wisconsin is in a race for first place in the Big Ten and has a decent shot at ending up as a protected seed, but they’ll need a strong finish and a good showing in the conference tournament in order to make that happen. Picking up this win on the road would certainly help.
-UCLA AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac Twelve). UCLA appears to be a solid protected seed, and is in a three way race with Oregon and Arizona for first place in the conference.
-USC AT ARIZONA (Pac Twelve). Arizona has just one conference loss and currently has the strongest profile in the Pac Twelve. If the season ended today I think they’d be at least a #2 seed. USC is solidly in the field and has an opportunity to give their tournament resume a huge boost.
-GONZAGA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). Gonzaga can win their 29th game today. I’ll be surprised if they don’t win out and end up on the #1 line.
-SAINT MARY’S AT PEPPERDINE (West Coast). Saint Mary’s will end up in the top half of the bracket if they can hold serve the rest of the way.