Hoops HD

I don’t editorialize all that often, but when I do, it is awesome!!

Tonight is our final Under the Radar Podcast of the season.  We will discuss each conference like we always do, go over the conference tournament formats for all 23 UTR leagues, probably make a prediction on the winner, and assess what each team has remaining.  By no means are we going away after that.  It’s just that conference tournaments begin this upcoming Monday, so every night beginning this Sunday we will be recording our Championship Week Video Notebooks.

We have closely followed these teams all year long, and we are quite familiar with them.  But even though we’ve closely followed them since literally the first day of the season, I now think even we are undervaluing them.  With the bubble being as weak as it is, I felt compelled to go back and look at these teams and see what kind of case could be made for them.  On the surface, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of merit there.  Just bloated records against predominantly sub NIT caliber teams.  But after looking at things a little more closely, I now believe these teams have won a significant number of games that were harder to win than what many other teams on the bubble have won.

To be more specific, if a team’s best wins are all at home against RPI top 50 teams who have losing records on the road, then I do not feel those games are any harder to win than going on the road to play a team that, while out of the RPI top 100, is still winning close to 80 percent of their home games.  So, while the five teams below do not have an abundance of wins against “top 50” teams, they have won games on the road that are just as hard to win, if not more so, than it is to win against a lot of top fifty teams at home.

So, take another look.  And, at least consider it.  And, let’s hope that the selection committee is looking at them a little more closely than even we were just a few days ago.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE (23-4)

–RPI = 32 (good)
–OOC RPI = 26 (good)
–OOC SOS = 18 (very good)
–True Road Record = 10-2.  7 of the wins came against teams with winning records at home.  Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss are a combined 49-8 at home in games where they haven’t played Middle Tennessee.  (VERY VERY good)
–Neutral Floor Record = 3-0, including a win over 22-5 UNC Wilmington (good)
–Other Notes = 3 bad loss at Tennessee State, at UTEP, and at home to Georgia State, but the loss at UTEP came during a stretch where the Miners are 9-2 in their last 11 games, and it was at the buzzer.  They also have a loss at VCU, who has lost just one home game this year.
–Conference Tournament = At a predetermined site in Birmingham, AL.  They could potentially have to face UAB in a virtual road game despite being the best team in the conference (crap deal)

The OOC RPI and SOS show that they scheduled exactly the way the committee says they should.  The wins on the road show that they’re capable of winning games that are hard to win.  Marshall, Western Kentucky, UTSA, Belmont, and Ole Miss aren’t considered “quality teams” by most, so they’re not going to get credit for quality wins for beating them.  But, if you look at it closely, you see that those teams win a lot of games at home.  I would argue that it’s harder to win at Belmont or Marshall than it is to beat top fifty teams such as Michigan and TCU at home.  Those two teams have won a combined total of three true road games.  So, we have a first place team with a top 40 RPI with five notable wins and a top 20 OOC schedule.  That beats the bubble.

TEXAS ARLINGTON (19-6)

–RPI = 34 (good)
–OOC RPI = 21 (very good)
–OOC SOS = 58 (fair)
–True Road Record = 10-6.  Includes a win at Saint Mary’s who’s only other home loss has come to Gonzaga, Texas who was at full strength at the time, and Georgia State and Georgia Southern who are a combined 16-3 at home when not playing Texas Arlington (very good).
–Other Notes = 5 of the 6 losses were at Minnesota and at Arkansas who appear to be tournament teams, and Florida Gulf Coast, Texas State, and Troy who are a combined 23-10 at home.
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in New Orleans.  The seeding is standard and there is no advantage for the first place team. (crap deal)

They are a first place team with a top forty RPI.  That almost always gets a team in.  They also have also have two tough road wins against Georgia Southern and Georgia State, and another against Saint Mary’s who is a solid tournament team.  If this team wins out they will have all the earmarks of an at-large team, and although they don’t have too many wins against the RPI top fifty, they’ve won games on the road that are harder to win than it is to win against a top fifty team at home with a losing road record.  This beats the bubble

UNC WILMINGTON (22-5)

–RPI = 42 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 30 (good)
–OOC SOS = 109 (not so good)
–True Road Record = 11-3.  6 of the 11 teams have winning records at home.  Western Michigan, Saint Bonaventure, Towson, and College of Charleston are a combined 38-8 at home when not playing UNCW (good)
–Other Notes = Of the three road games they lost, William & Mary is unbeaten at home, Clemson is 9-4, and Elon is a modest 7-3.
–Conference Tournament = Is being played at Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference and who has split with UNCW.  It’s possible they’ll have to win a virtual road game in the conference championship despite being the better team. (crap deal)

Like the previous teams, they lack quality wins, but they’ve won games that are difficult to win in the sense that they’ve won on the road against teams that play very well at home.  They do have two sub 100 RPI losses, but one of those was at William & Mary who is unbeaten at home, and the other was at Elon who is at least decent at home.

ILLINOIS STATE (22-5)

–RPI = 33 (good)
–OOC RPI = 87 (bad)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 8-4.  4 of the teams have winning records at home.  Evansville and Loyola Chicago are a combined 20-5 at home when not playing Illinois State, and two of the other five losses are to Wichita State. (fair)
–Conference Tournament = Predetermined site in Saint Louis (I guess fair)
–Other Notes = -All five losses were away from home, and four were to teams with winning home records.  They also have a home win against Wichita State.

Of the five teams on this list, this is the team that we at Hoops HD have been giving the most love to, and although I definitely think they are worthy of consideration and comparable to other teams on the bubble who have really just won at home against top fifty teams that are bad on the road, I don’t like them as much as Middle Tennessee, or Texas Arlington, or UNC Wilmington.  While this team has a quality win and for the most part has avoided bad losses, the games they’ve won aren’t as hard to win as a lot of the games that Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington, and UNC Wilmington have won.  I still like them, though.

MONMOUTH (24-5)

–RPI = 46 (fair)
–OOC RPI = 35 (good)
–OOC SOS = 119 (bad)
–True Road Record = 11-4.  Three of the losses were at South Carolina, North Carolina, and Syracuse.  Only 5 teams have winning records at home, but Memphis and Siena are a combined 22-5 at home when not playing Monmouth (good)
–Conference Tournament = Clinched first place in the Metro Atlantic, but the tournament is being hosted by Siena and they could have to play a virtual road game in the semifinals. (crap deal)

This isn’t the strongest profile, but it doesn’t smell any worse than some of the bubble teams from power conferences who’s best wins came at home against top fifty teams with losing road records.  They do have two bad losses to Rider and Saint Peter’s, but both were on the road, and also beat both of those teams, and they completely dominated the league which demonstrates they can beat anyone in it